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Coronavirus updates (gelico's original thread)

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Post by gelico on Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:15 pm

First topic message reminder :

seems to be spreading rapidly

tests show it started in a animal market

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Post by Original Quill on Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:25 pm

Original Quill wrote:US has closed its doors to Europe.  GET BACK, you heathens.  Don't sneeze in our area.

And now, this am, the US has extended its travel ban to the UK and Ireland.  Europe has now replaced China and Asia as the hotspots for Covid-19.

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Post by Victorismyhero on Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:32 pm

heading your way soon quill..... Crying or Very sad

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Post by Ben Reilly on Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:16 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Ben Reilly wrote:You certainly seem to be excited by this, Tommy.


How do you mean?



Well, it's hard for me to imagine you not being happy about less international travel and about countries closing their borders, that's all. You do seem to advocate for people staying wherever it was that they were born.

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Post by Original Quill on Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:23 pm

Victorismyhero wrote:heading your way soon quill..... Crying or Very sad

Just reportin', Vic. I'm with you. This wouldn't have happened if profit didn't interfere with public safety.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:32 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:


How do you mean?



Well, it's hard for me to imagine you not being happy about less international travel and about countries closing their borders, that's all. You do seem to advocate for people staying wherever it was that they were born.


So... it's not me being excited about any of this at all... It's just a deluded fantasy that occupies your twisted imagination...


Ok...!



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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:34 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:


How do you mean?



Well, it's hard for me to imagine you not being happy about less international travel and about countries closing their borders, that's all. You do seem to advocate for people staying wherever it was that they were born.


This above shows how and why some of the left really have their head in their arses

I cannot believe you just said the above 

Tommy maybe be many things, but the above crosses a line

Seriously sort yourself out Ben

Do you really think Tommy is a monster?

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Post by Ben Reilly on Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:44 pm

Thorin wrote:
Ben Reilly wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:


How do you mean?



Well, it's hard for me to imagine you not being happy about less international travel and about countries closing their borders, that's all. You do seem to advocate for people staying wherever it was that they were born.


This above shows how and why some of the left really have their head in their arses

I cannot believe you just said the above 

Tommy maybe be many things, but the above crosses a line

Seriously sort yourself out Ben

Do you really think Tommy is a monster?

I think some of his beliefs are monstrous. But you or him can try to prove me wrong, if you want to.

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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:49 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:
Thorin wrote:


This above shows how and why some of the left really have their head in their arses

I cannot believe you just said the above 

Tommy maybe be many things, but the above crosses a line

Seriously sort yourself out Ben

Do you really think Tommy is a monster?

I think some of his beliefs are monstrous. But you or him can try to prove me wrong, if you want to.


The virus is not Tommy's fault

Maybe you will at some point understand that

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Post by Ben Reilly on Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:54 pm

Thorin wrote:
Ben Reilly wrote:
Thorin wrote:


This above shows how and why some of the left really have their head in their arses

I cannot believe you just said the above 

Tommy maybe be many things, but the above crosses a line

Seriously sort yourself out Ben

Do you really think Tommy is a monster?

I think some of his beliefs are monstrous. But you or him can try to prove me wrong, if you want to.


The virus is not Tommy's fault

Maybe you will at some point understand that

I never accused Tommy of creating or spreading the virus. I just said that he seemed excited that countries were shutting down their borders.

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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:58 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:
Thorin wrote:


The virus is not Tommy's fault

Maybe you will at some point understand that

I never accused Tommy of creating or spreading the virus. I just said that he seemed excited that countries were shutting down their borders.


"excited"?

Really, I did not see Tommy jumping hoops when commenting about this

You have created this picture yourself in your own mind

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:01 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:
Thorin wrote:


The virus is not Tommy's fault

Maybe you will at some point understand that

I never accused Tommy of creating or spreading the virus. I just said that he seemed excited that countries were shutting down their borders.



And your perception of my alleged 'excitement' is purely a figment of your own twisted and deluded imagination...!



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Post by Ben Reilly on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:12 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Ben Reilly wrote:
Thorin wrote:


The virus is not Tommy's fault

Maybe you will at some point understand that

I never accused Tommy of creating or spreading the virus. I just said that he seemed excited that countries were shutting down their borders.



And your perception of my alleged 'excitement' is purely a figment of your own twisted and deluded imagination...!



Okay, then how do you feel about countries shutting down their borders and banning travel?

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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:18 pm

Tommy Monk appears to be as obsessive about the virus as Piers Morgan is about Meghan and Thorin is about lefties.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:18 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:



And your perception of my alleged 'excitement' is purely a figment of your own twisted and deluded imagination...!



Okay, then how do you feel about countries shutting down their borders and banning travel?


You have already decided the answer to this... so I don't understand why you feel the need to now ask me for my own opinion on this...!?



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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:21 pm

Can anyone help me out here

We have a virus that is causes countless deaths and Ben is more interested in the mindset of Tommy. In regards to whether he thinks its a good or bad idea to restrict travel

Which apparently according to Ben. If people think this is a sensible idea, this somehow makes them excitable and happy

Holy crap on a cracker

Have a good evening everyone. 

Sorry but this is simple bullshit

Goodnight

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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:28 pm

I think it's  because every sane person wants to get CORRECT information rather than from a biased and doubtful poster on an obscure forum. Personally, I look to press releases from the WHO and the 2 lead scientists abreast of Boris.
Boris might be a buffoon and a clown, but they aren't, they have science and reputations behind them


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Post by Ben Reilly on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:29 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Ben Reilly wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:



And your perception of my alleged 'excitement' is purely a figment of your own twisted and deluded imagination...!



Okay, then how do you feel about countries shutting down their borders and banning travel?


You have already decided the answer to this... so I don't understand why you feel the need to now ask me for my own opinion on this...!?



Coronavirus updates (gelico's original thread) - Page 11 89750910

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Post by Ben Reilly on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:32 pm

Didge, I don't care more about Tommy's mindset than the pandemic. Simple put, I thought that a person who has countless times said that people need to stay in their own poor, war-torn countries and fix them rather than migrate, and a person who has countless times made refugees out to be grifters, would be happy that borders are being closed.

It makes sense if you bother to think about it with an open mind for even a few seconds.

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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:39 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:Didge, I don't care more about Tommy's mindset than the pandemic. Simple put, I thought that a person who has countless times said that people need to stay in their own poor, war-torn countries and fix them rather than migrate, and a person who has countless times made refugees out to be grifters, would be happy that borders are being closed.

It makes sense if you bother to think about it with an open mind for even a few seconds.


Well luckily my mindset is not like yours

Whatever views Tommy has in regards to migrants and refugees, all poor of course. At no point have I seen him express happiness or excitement over this

You need to get a fucking grip mate, because only you and Quill seem to be on some mission to hit out at people over this pandemic

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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:44 pm

Hard to believe, but the virus doesn't just infect the poor.
Rich, poor, black , white, gay, straight, male , female or transgender, left , right, Christian, Hindu or Muslim, ANYONE is liable to catch it.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:02 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:Didge, I don't care more about Tommy's mindset than the pandemic. Simple put, I thought that a person who has countless times said that people need to stay in their own poor, war-torn countries and fix them rather than migrate, and a person who has countless times made refugees out to be grifters, would be happy that borders are being closed.

It makes sense if you bother to think about it with an open mind for even a few seconds.



It is you who makes out grifters and economic migrants as being genuine asylum seekers and as refugees fleeing from war zones...


The law is quite clear on safe country status...!


And the overwhelming vast majority of sub Saharan Africans are not fleeing any war at all... And the tiny minority who may come from countries with a bit of conflict have passed through numerous safe countries on their way towards their attempts at illegal entry into European countries.


The overwhelming vast majority of British people, and people throughout every European country, are against illegal immigrants and bogus asylum seekers!


Although this is totally separate from the topic of the corona virus!




Last edited by Tommy Monk on Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:10 pm

A simple question for Ben

Do you back the concept of herd immunity?

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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:34 pm

This is worth listening to.

Michael T. Osterholm is an American public-health scientist and a biosecurity and infectious-disease expert.


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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:56 pm

For those interested, you can watch the full video here


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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:30 pm

Thorin wrote:This is worth listening to.

Michael T. Osterholm is an American public-health scientist and a biosecurity and infectious-disease expert.




Within the first couple minutes of this video, the guy says he has some figures... Then goes on to say he thinks there will be 46 million hospitalised by this virus... Out of a total estimated number of infections of 96 million...

So he is saying that around half of the total cases will be of such a serious/critical level as to warrant hospitalisation...

Although going by the figures on the source I have been quoting throughout this thread... Here...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

They have calculated the numbers of serious/critical cases to be around 8% of total number of cases...


So... is the guy in video overstating the numbers expected to be serious/critical...?


Or are the figures released by country and which are shown on the link above, actually not accurate and are much lower than the true figures...!!!???


Also... The guy in video says that he expects to see around 460,000 deaths out of this estimated 96 million cases... Which works out to be only about 0.5% death rate... although the official figures on link above shows that out of the 75,000 or so known cases that have reached a conclusion... Around 93% have recovered and 7% have died from this virus!!!



The

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Post by Guest on Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:50 pm

He is saying over a long time period Tommy

Hence its yet to be know if his hypothesis will end up being correct

All you are going on is what we know now

He is speculating based on what he knows and understands with this

He may well end up being wrong, but you need to set aside what you know now and think as he is doing. 93% so far have recovered and clearly the death rate is always going to be higher at first based on those where it is serious. In time you will see the number of those recovered dramatically increase. Being as it takes weeks for people to get over this. Hence the percentage will be high at first those who have died from this

Hence why you see the figures from China, where many now have recovered

You will see the same within a month with the rest of the world

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:20 am

Thorin wrote:A simple question for Ben

Do you back the concept of herd immunity?


So, I made a little animation trying to explain how herd immunity works.

When enough of the population has been vaccinated, a disease is no longer able to spread effectively, protecting even the unvaccinated.  The percentage needed varies with the disease.

#VaccinesSaveLives"


https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1179323361274580992

Video on the link

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Post by Original Quill on Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:23 am

Thorin wrote:
Thorin wrote:A simple question for Ben

Do you back the concept of herd immunity?


So, I made a little animation trying to explain how herd immunity works.

When enough of the population has been vaccinated, a disease is no longer able to spread effectively, protecting even the unvaccinated.  The percentage needed varies with the disease.

#VaccinesSaveLives"


https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1179323361274580992

Video on the link

There is no vaccine for Covid-19.  There is no treatment or cure. Why are we talking about non-existent things?

_________________
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"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine." ― Old Republican proverb.

"I don't stand by anything."  ― Donald Trump, interview with John Dickerson, 5.1.17...

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:25 am

Original Quill wrote:
Thorin wrote:


So, I made a little animation trying to explain how herd immunity works.

When enough of the population has been vaccinated, a disease is no longer able to spread effectively, protecting even the unvaccinated.  The percentage needed varies with the disease.

#VaccinesSaveLives"


https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1179323361274580992

Video on the link

There is no vaccine for Covid-19.  There is no treatment or cure.  Why are we talking about non-existent things?

Did I claim there was a vaccine?

I posed a question to Ben and posted then a link to show how herd immunity works

So this has fuck all to do with you

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:03 am

Thorin wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

There is no vaccine for Covid-19.  There is no treatment or cure.  Why are we talking about non-existent things?

Did I claim there was a vaccine?

I posed a question to Ben and posted then a link to show how herd immunity works

So this has fuck all to do with you

I thought this was a forum open to all members, freely able to comment and engage in discussions. That's what it says on the blurb.
I don't recall anyone saying this is your personal fiefdom and you some arbiter of who and who cannot comment.

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:23 am

Brutus wrote:
Thorin wrote:

Did I claim there was a vaccine?

I posed a question to Ben and posted then a link to show how herd immunity works

So this has fuck all to do with you

I thought this was a forum open to all members, freely able to comment and engage in discussions. That's what it says on the blurb.
I don't recall anyone saying this is your personal fiefdom and you some arbiter of who and who cannot comment.

So basically you are a shit stirrer then?

The question is for Ben, not Quill and have zero interest in what he thinks here

So the forum is open to everyone, but then I dont have to respond to everyone do I?


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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:31 am

In what way am I stirring?
Everyone has, or at least should have and interest in coronavirus, permitting them to comment on a thread of that title.

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:34 am

Brutus wrote:In what way am I stirring?
Everyone has, or at least should  have and interest in coronavirus, permitting them to comment on  a thread of that title.

Then you discuss that point with him

I have zero interest on what he thinks in regards to herd immunity

Has that sunken in yet?

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:51 am

I have zero interest in what you think Ben thinks.
It's a free world and his forum.
Ben can think and post whatever he likes.

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:56 am

Coronavirus victims in Italy will be denied access to intensive care if they are aged 80 or more or in poor health should pressure on beds increase, a document prepared by a crisis management unit in Turin propose.

Some patients denied intensive care will in effect be left to die, doctors fear.

The unit has drawn up a protocol, seen by The Telegraph, that will determine which patients receive treatment in intensive care and which do not if there are insufficient spaces. Intensive care capacity is running short in Italy as the coronavirus continues to spread.

The document, produced by the civil protection deparment of the Piedmont region, one of those hardest hit, says: "The criteria for access to intensive therapy in cases of emergency must include age of less than 80 or a score on the Charlson comorbidity Index [which indicates how many other medical conditions the patient has] of less than 5."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/14/italians-80-will-left-die-country-overwhelmed-coronavirus/

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:08 am

Excellent, clear explanation why UK scientists have advised the govt NOT to put everyone in quarantine already.

Watch this if you haven't already

https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1239136321832189952

Video on link

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:21 pm

Thorin wrote:He is saying over a long time period Tommy

Hence its yet to be know if his hypothesis will end up being correct

All you are going on is what we know now

He is speculating based on what he knows and understands with this

He may well end up being wrong, but you need to set aside what you know now and think as he is doing. 93% so far have recovered and clearly the death rate is always going to be higher at first based on those where it is serious. In time you will see the number of those recovered dramatically increase. Being as it takes weeks for people to get over this. Hence the percentage will be high at first those who have died from this

Hence why you see the figures from China, where many now have recovered

You will see the same within a month with the rest of the world



China figures show 5% death rate.


They have had 70000 cases reached conclusion and now only have about 10000 active cases.


Although I think they are not being totally honest about figures and it is much wotlrse than they are saying.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:32 pm




All the talk about being careful when touching surfaces etc... But nobody has mentioned touching money yet!


Just think how easy it must be to transmit the virus by the passing/exchange of money in shops and elsewhere...



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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:39 pm

Jeremy Warner from the Telegrapgh is rather cheerful about the virus, claiming the cull on the elderly will boost the economy.

Hope he gets it. Chinless wonder.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/dont-surprised-virus-delays-brexit/

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Post by Victorismyhero on Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:53 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:


All the talk about being careful when touching surfaces etc... But nobody has mentioned touching money yet!


Just think how easy it must be to transmit the virus by the passing/exchange of money in shops and elsewhere...



money, especially notes is one of the filthyest things going....coins are not quite as bad since the metal content being nickle silver or copper generally is a fairly good biocide

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:00 pm

Victorismyhero wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:


All the talk about being careful when touching surfaces etc... But nobody has mentioned touching money yet!


Just think how easy it must be to transmit the virus by the passing/exchange of money in shops and elsewhere...



money, especially notes is one of the filthyest things going....coins are not quite as bad since the metal content being nickle silver or copper generally is a fairly good biocide


A busy till will be a hotbed of viruses and bacteria... just rember to wash your hands after touching any money.



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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:05 pm



But how long can the new coronavirus linger on surfaces, anyway? The short answer is, we don't know. A new analysis found that the virus can remain viable in the air for up to 3 hours, on copper for up to 4 hours, on cardboard up to 24 hours and on plastic and stainless steel up to 2 to 3 days. However, this study, which was published in the preprint database medRxiv on Wednesday (March 11), has not yet yet been peer-reviewed.

Another study published in February in The Journal of Hospital Infection analyzed several dozen previously published papers on human coronaviruses (other than the new coronavirus) to get a better idea of how long they can survive outside of the body.

They concluded that if this new coronavirus resembles other human coronaviruses, such as its "cousins" that cause SARS and MERS, it can stay on surfaces — such as metal, glass or plastic — for as long as nine days (In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.)

https://www.livescience.com/how-long-coronavirus-last-surfaces.html


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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:53 pm

Does washing clothes on a hot (60c or above) wash get rid of the virus?

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Post by Original Quill on Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:11 pm

Most viruses won’t survive in temperatures over 60C, so you could opt for this setting for items that are particularly germ ridden and washed less often, like tea towels, bedding, bath towels, gloves, scarves, and children’s clothing.

For those concerned about the environmental impact, one expert recommended simply washing clothes on a more regular basis instead.

Throwing your items into the heat of the tumble dryer can also help to kill off any nasties, and it also gives a good reason to iron your clothes for the same reason,

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/uk-world-news/coronavirus-expert-explains-how-wash-3945480

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Post by Fred Moletrousers on Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 pm

Now I suspect that Wolfie, whose superior knowledge and expertise in such matters I readily acknowledge, will shoot me down in flames, but I can't help asking: Is this not nature's way of dealing with global over-population and diminishing resources, including food-producing capacity?

Remember the 1950s myxomatosis outbreak that devastated a rapidly increasing rabbit population that was out of control to the point that the fast-breeding bunnies were destroying their own habitat and food resources?

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Post by Original Quill on Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:39 pm

Nature has no intention, nor even consciousness. It's merely a pattern.

How does overpopulation fit into a pattern of resources? Covid-19 is just a virus doing what viruses do. It has no anthropomorphic tendencies, nor any awareness of when resources are short, nor how over-populated animals over-consume.

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Post by Guest on Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:56 pm

The world, or at least certain parts of it ARE overpopulated and could benefit from population reduction. The best method is by copulation reduction and contraception, not a human cull which appeared to be so welcomed by journalist? Jeremy Warmer.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:00 pm

Fred Moletrousers wrote:Now I suspect that Wolfie, whose superior knowledge and expertise in such matters I readily acknowledge, will shoot me down in flames, but I can't help asking: Is this not nature's way of dealing with global over-population and diminishing resources, including food-producing capacity?

Remember the 1950s myxomatosis outbreak that devastated a rapidly increasing rabbit population that was out of control to the point that the fast-breeding bunnies were destroying their own habitat and food resources?




Australia unleashed myxomatosis on an out-of-control rabbit population in 1950. The European rabbit is thought to have been introduced to the country by Thomas Austin, an English settler, in the 1850s. Within a century, they numbered hundreds of millions. The species wreaked havoc on Australia’s native plants and animals but in less than three months, myxomatosis had spread 2,000 km and killed 99 per cent of infected animals. In 1952, the virus was illegally introduced in France and in 1953 it reached the UK, leading to similarly devastating results in both countries.


http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2019-02-14-new-research-explains-how-rabbits-adapted-survive-myxomatosis#




In 1953 myxomatosis, a viral disease of rabbits, broke out in Britain for the first time. It rapidly killed tens of millions of the animals from Kent to the Shetlands. Many farmers and foresters welcomed a disease that virtually eliminated a longstanding and serious agricultural pest. Others were horrified by the sight of thousands of dead and dying animals. With meat still rationed, consumers rued the loss of a cheap and nutritious foodstuff. Rough shooters deplored the loss of prey and hatters and furriers the unavailability of the fur on which their businesses depended. Rabbits also had champions within the 'establishment'; these included Winston Churchill who was personally influential in making deliberate transmission of the disease a criminal offence. The arrival in Britain of myxomatosis presented the authorities with difficult questions: should they try to contain it, spread it or do nothing; should they take advantage of rabbit depopulation and try to exterminate such a destructive animal? In the event the outbreak was allowed to run its course and rabbit extermination became government policy. This article considers who or what was responsible for the disease reaching the UK and how it then spread throughout the country. It examines the responses of government, other institutions and members of the public. Finally, it explores the impact of rabbit de-population on agriculture, the natural environment and public opinion.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/19069081/






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Post by 'Wolfie on Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:16 pm

Fred Moletrousers wrote:Now I suspect that Wolfie, whose superior knowledge and expertise in such matters I readily acknowledge, will shoot me down in flames, but I can't help asking: Is this not nature's way of dealing with global over-population and diminishing resources, including food-producing capacity?

Remember the 1950s myxomatosis outbreak that devastated a rapidly increasing rabbit population that was out of control to the point that the fast-breeding bunnies were destroying their own habitat and food resources?

Arrow

It is quite true that nature does have that way of "levelling out" things, when populations or situations reach extremes...

If highly infectious diseases breaking out among overcrowded populations don't wipe out large sections of the community first, then inevitable shortages of food and water eventually will..

That's as long as pollution and overuse haven't alreday despoiled those resources enough already, to make them largely unusable or inaccessible.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:24 pm

Brutus wrote:Jeremy Warner from the Telegrapgh is rather cheerful about the virus, claiming the cull on the elderly will boost the economy.

Hope he gets it. Chinless wonder.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/dont-surprised-virus-delays-brexit/



I have read the full article at the link you posted above... And I didn't see anything regarding your claim above...!


Are you completely lying or are you just repeating bullshit that someone else has told you, without actually seeing for yourself if it is true or not...!?


Here is the full article...



Don't be surprised if this virus delays Brexit

Jeremy Warner

Jeremy Warner

13 March 2020 • 7:00am


As market chaos points to a global recession, calls will grow to extend the transition period

Finally it gets serious. Even with the explosion of deaths in Northern Italy and the shock and awe economic response announced by the UK Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, in his Budget this week, it was still possible to dismiss the coronavirus as a passing panic that by early summer might have burnt itself out.

But Donald Trump’s clumsy and apparently spiteful response in banning European passenger flights takes things to a whole new level and pretty much guarantees that the economic consequences transmogrify from a pronounced slowdown into a global recession.

That in any case is what the markets are now signalling. The waves from this virus just keep on growing, threatening wide-ranging geopolitical consequences on top of the social, economic and financial effects.

Could Covid-19 yet derail Brexit along with everything else? As we saw from this week’s Budget, this is a Government determined to keep its promises, and primary among them is that Britain leaves Europe’s single market and customs union at the end of this year come what may, with or without a free trade deal.

Up until now, this has seemed the right negotiating stance, but is it still credible in light of the gathering economic storm clouds of the Covid-19 outbreak?

It might be possible partially to cushion the UK economy from the shock of the virus, as Mr Sunak tried to in this week’s Budget, but to pile the additional challenge of a no-deal exit from the single market on top would be quite an ask.

Face to face meetings could soon become impossible, making progress on a free trade deal hard to achieve, and with bigger fish to fry, the Europeans might in any case simply decide unilaterally to terminate the talks until the coronavirus crisis subsides.

In such circumstances, would the UK simply plough ahead regardless or, with force majeure as an excuse, extend the transition? There are two ways of looking at this choice.

One is that preparations for a no-deal Brexit mean that, by chance, the UK economy is in remarkably good shape to withstand any prolonged international quarantine. We are already braced for much tougher border controls.

What is more, if the virus is still raging as we approach the end of the transition, a little extra economic harm from falling out of the single market without a free trade agreement is scarcely going to matter very much. It’ll all get lost in the wash.

In any case, if the virus causes the European economy to collapse into recession, sparking renewed crisis in the single currency, Brussels won’t want to pile on the agony by risking an acrimonious trade rupture with the UK. Brexit will become seen as a comparatively trivial matter to be settled in a needs-must, least-damage manner. They’ll cut a deal to avoid further nuisance.

Yet the other way of looking at the choice is that there would be no face to lose in agreeing an extension if the world is by then still gripped by the natural disaster of a killer disease. In the scale of things, a minor delay to Brexit would be of no significance.

Already, then, the crisis is raising major political issues on top of the more immediate concerns around public health and the economy. For all political leaders, the virus is a potentially existential threat. Get the response wrong, and citizens will find ways of punishing them just as severely as if they have failed on the economy, or for that matter Brexit.

If infection rates and deaths begin to spiral out of control, Boris Johnson will be in some difficulty, even with his newly won “stonking” majority, having decided not to go for the full scale lockdown imposed elsewhere.

Mindful of the criticism George W Bush was subjected to for his handling of Hurricane Katrina, meanwhile, President Trump is said to have become completely obsessed with the politics of what could be his own Katrina moment.

It has to be said that so far his approach to the crisis has been less than exemplary. A combination of a mishandled public response, a plunging stock market, a contracting economy and a Democratic Party that seems finally to have come to its senses in rejecting “mad Bernie” as its presidential nominee, could easily sink Trump’s chances of re-election for a second term.

For a President who measures his own success against the yardstick of stock market performance things are looking grim. One more week like this, and the S&P 500 will have given up all the gains made during his presidency.

Catastrophes come in many different forms; the coronavirus pandemic is obviously a very different kind of economic event from the financial crisis a decade ago – the disease an act of God and the latter wholly man-made. Yet the two may turn out to be not so dissimilar in their seminal repercussions.

Such events change the world, just when you are least expecting it. This is no passing hysteria; for myriad reasons, it will be remembered for a long time to come.







So... Can you point out the bit that you claim is there...???



If not... Tell us whether you are a liar or an incompetent gullible fool who just repeats the lies of others...!!!???



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