Coronavirus updates (gelico's original thread)

[gelico]

First topic message reminder :

seems to be spreading rapidly

tests show it started in a animal market

[Original Quill]

The mortality rate (which measures severity) has gone from 2% to 3.4%, approaching double.

[Tommy Monk]

As I have kept saying... The real mortality rate is much higher than that which has been said officially before...

They keep saying it's very low and only about 1% etc... But even by using the official figures that you can find on the link I sent, and by calculating it by the method that gives the lowest and most downplayed figure, it is about 91000 cases known to date and about 3150 deaths which gives a figure of about 3%!!!

But the best way of looking at likely outcomes is to not factor in new cases that have yet to reach any outcome at all, but just to focus on the cases that we know about that have reached an outcome...

And when we do that, we have about 51500 cases that have reached a full course outcome and 48500 people fully recovered and discharged from care, and 3160 deaths...

That gives a mortality rate of around 6%!!!

But if we go a bit further again... and remove China figures and Iran figures, because they can't really be trusted, and just focus on figures from more reliable countries... We get a different figure again...about 1000 cases recovered and discharged while 150 deaths!
Which is about 13%!!!

[Maddog]

[Ben Reilly]

Not really fair to compare made-up stuff like 6/6/06 to epidemics and pandemics in which a lot of people actually did die.

[Maddog]

Not really fair to compare made-up stuff like 6/6/06 to epidemics and pandemics in which a lot of people actually did die.

OK, cut the list in half and add in the second ice age.

[eddie]

['Wolfie]

The mortality rate (which measures severity) has gone from 2% to 3.4%, approaching double.

And when Tommy Monk's strained bullshit "statistics" efforts were unfortunately dropping from his false "mortality rate" of 20%+ to less than 10% a few days ago (heading closer to the more genuine figures, as more people recover..), true to form Tommykins drops his previous pathetic scaremongering lists, then begins cherrypicking any figures that supports his loony claims...

[Original Quill]

Not really fair to compare made-up stuff like 6/6/06 to epidemics and pandemics in which a lot of people actually did die.

Other "made-up stuff" include mad cow (not cows), Nostradamus, Star Holocaust, Devil/Holocaust, Mayan prediction.

[nicko]

Why is Wolfie so nasty to Tommy ?

[Tommy Monk]

The mortality rate (which measures severity) has gone from 2% to 3.4%, approaching double.

And when Tommy Monk's strained bullshit "statistics" efforts were unfortunately dropping from his false "mortality rate" of 20%+ to less than 10% a few days ago (heading closer to the more genuine figures, as more people recover..), true to form Tommykins drops his previous pathetic scaremongering lists, then begins cherrypicking any figures that supports his loony claims...

I don't make up the figures you bell end... I was using the figures that were found here...


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[nicko]

Ignore him Tommy, he's a Dickhead !

[Maddog]

[gelico]

There are 96,301 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,309 fatalities.

115 cases in uk now


beanie got sent home from work today with flu symptoms

[nicko]

Teacher at great grandsons School sent home with symptoms ,School closed,---------Bloody hell !

[gelico]

first death of coronavirus in uk, Berkshire,,,, underlying health issues

no more info

[Tommy Monk]

769 new cases and 41 new deaths in Italy, which becomes the country with the largest daily increase in cases and deaths in the world. [source]
Among the 3,296 active cases, 1,790 (54%) are hospitalized, 331 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care.
Among the 562 closed cases, 414 (74%) have recovered, 148 (26%) have died.

[eddie]

Is there a source that shows whether those that have died were particularly frail, weak or vulnerable in the first place?

[Tommy Monk]

Diabetics are said to be at high risk of death from this virus... And they come in all age groups...


People with asthma are also said to be higher risk of dying...


There has also been plenty of relatively young fit and healthy people dying from this virus too...


And of course many older people...


And there was me thinking that all lives matter...

[Vintage]

How do we know all the deaths are known as yet, if ever. I doubt we actually know the real number infected.

[Maddog]

Is there a source that shows whether those that have died were particularly frail, weak or vulnerable in the first place?

Seems to be skipping the kids......

You can’t swing a stick without hitting a new headline about the novel coronavirus, and it’s understandable. What we know about it is disconcerting. So far, more than 90,000 people have been sickened by it, 3,000 of whom have tragically died. But there’s something medical professionals don’t understand about the coronavirus that’s oddly comforting: It affects children with far less frequency than it affects adults.


https://www.scarymommy.com/coronavirus-kids-do-not-contract/?utm_source=FB&fbclid=IwAR04PD5iFGhL88J622qMpFbqsdNpOqsDJNb1uNRGAO7liZ4I0Oq0iUuYcbU

[Original Quill]

Another cruise ship stuck in the Pacific, off the coast of Monterey, awaits docking in San Francisco:

SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- A cruise ship carrying thousands of passengers and crew members, some with flu-like symptoms, is headed to San Francisco -- but where it will dock remains unknown amid concerns over the spread of novel coronavirus.

The Grand Princess cruise ship, with a total of 2,383 guests and 1,100 crew members, originally departed from San Francisco on Feb. 11 for a trip through the Mexican Riviera.

During that trip, which ended Feb. 21, three people developed coronavirus. One of those patients, a 71-year-old Placer County man, died of the virus, marking the first death in California, officials said Wednesday.
https://abc7news.com/5988195/

[Tommy Monk]

How the fuck did any of these cruise passengers get the virus from Mexico when the virus didn't get there until the end of February?


And the cruise cases were before this?

['Wolfie]

How do we know all the deaths are known as yet, if ever. I doubt we actually know the real number infected.

Scaremongering "fuckwittery"...

Yet another clueless nong, trying hard to outdo Tommy Monk's pure bastardry...

['Wolfie]

Is there a source that shows whether those that have died were particularly frail, weak or vulnerable in the first place?

There are medical and technical sources available out there, that sidestep the scaremongering bullshit, the hysterical media blitzes, and the political and religious obfuscations...

You just have to use the right keywords in your searches..

Some examples :

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronaviruses

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(20)30026-1/fulltext

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/04/811146915/how-computer-modeling-of-covid-19s-spread-could-help-fight-the-virus

http://theconversation.com/predicting-the-coronavirus-outbreak-how-ai-connects-the-dots-to-warn-about-disease-threats-130772

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ask-an-expert-will-quarantines-make-the-coronavirus-worse

[Original Quill]

How the fuck did any of these cruise passengers get the virus from Mexico when the virus didn't get there until the end of February?

There were two stages to the cruise.  It started in San Francisco, went to Mexico, back to SF, and then it took on passengers and went to Hawai'i.  The cases, and the death, were from the first stage.  I suspect they had it pre-departure.  

All of these questions wouldn't even come up if the CDC had been continuously funded.  On-going research would have had the answers before questions came up.

People should realize that "regulations" are "public protections".  When the Trump administration, or any conservative administration, starts canceling regulations, they are making an open statement that they will not be protecting you.  Now this.  It was the same situation with the Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico...deregulation, then disaster.

TBH, I don't know what the conservatives are saving by canceling protections, nor what they plan to do with the savings.

[Original Quill]

The Italian strain in Milan is 4-times as infectious as the strain in China.  I guess that means it is 4-times as easily spread, or as easily caught.

[gelico]

There are 96,301 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,309 fatalities.

115 cases in uk now


beanie got sent home from work today with flu symptoms

well beanie is feeling slightly better

thank you all so much for your concern

[Tommy Monk]

Facebook offices in London closed for deep clean after confirmed case of a visitor there from Singapore.


Also an office building in Shoreditch, London, closed over a suspected case...


And in Italy...


778 new cases and 49 new deaths in Italy. Total cases: 4,636. Total deaths: 197. Active cases: 3,916.
- Among the 3,916 active cases, 2,394 (61%) are hospitalized, 462 of which (representing 12% of active cases) are in intensive care.
- Among the 720 closed cases, 523 (73%) have recovered, 197 (27%) have died.

[Tommy Monk]

There are 96,301 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,309 fatalities.

115 cases in uk now


beanie got sent home from work today with flu symptoms

well beanie is feeling slightly better

thank you all so much for your concern

I'm sure everyone cares, albeit without actually making concerned posts.

[Guest]

Facebook offices in London closed for deep clean after confirmed case of a visitor there from Singapore.


Also an office building in Shoreditch, London, closed over a suspected case...


And in Italy...


778 new cases and 49 new deaths in Italy. Total cases: 4,636. Total deaths: 197. Active cases: 3,916.
- Among the 3,916 active cases, 2,394 (61%) are hospitalized, 462 of which (representing 12% of active cases) are in intensive care.
- Among the 720 closed cases, 523 (73%) have recovered, 197 (27%) have died.

I am unconvinced that people are too interested in such a detailed, and possibly flawed breakdown of cases.
All people want to know is how many have or have had it, compared to how many have died.

[Tommy Monk]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Tommy Monk]

Facebook offices in London closed for deep clean after confirmed case of a visitor there from Singapore.


Also an office building in Shoreditch, London, closed over a suspected case...


And in Italy...


778 new cases and 49 new deaths in Italy. Total cases: 4,636. Total deaths: 197. Active cases: 3,916.
- Among the 3,916 active cases, 2,394 (61%) are hospitalized, 462 of which (representing 12% of active cases) are in intensive care.
- Among the 720 closed cases, 523 (73%) have recovered, 197 (27%) have died.

I am unconvinced that people are too interested in such a detailed, and possibly flawed breakdown of cases.
All people want to know is how many have or have had it, compared to how many have died.

The numbers I quoted are the official figures...


And if you want to have an informed understanding of what's going on, then you need to look at the details...


The link I posted above is the same link that I have posted throughout this thread, and is the source for all the figures and stats that I have posted here...


And just to put things into perspective a bit... There are around 7,800,000,000 people on the planet... There has been around 100,000 confirmed cases of this corona virus so far... And out of all these cases, about 50,000 have fully recovered, around 50,000 currently have the virus (overwhelming vast majority of these being new recently infected), and around 3,500 have died from it...

['Wolfie]

Tommy's "statistics" aren't simply flawed...

His "death rates" are outright scaremongering bullshit, as he's merely comparing his "recovered" numbers to total deaths to date..

Proves nothing more than what a complete fuckwit Tommy is --  not only hopeless at maths, but zero understanding of statistical analysis, and proper 'methodology'.

(Which we already knew previously, from his climate denial b/s, and his garbled "mini ice age" and "Greenland ice core" claims..).

[Original Quill]

There are now more coronavirus cases outside of China, than inside China.

[Tommy Monk]

Double posted - deleted

[Tommy Monk]

Tommy's "statistics" aren't simply flawed...

His "death rates" are outright scaremongering bullshit, as he's merely comparing his "recovered" numbers to total deaths to date..

Proves nothing more than what a complete fuckwit Tommy is --  not only hopeless at maths, but zero understanding of statistical analysis, and proper 'methodology'.

(Which we already knew previously, from his climate denial b/s, and his garbled "mini ice age" and "Greenland ice core" claims..).

You are a complete idiot.

You cannot include all the huge numbers of new cases in the calculation on death rates and expect to get an accurate figure!!!


There are 50000 closed cases that we can calculate an accurate death rate from.


But if you want to include another 50000 new cases that have not yet reached an outcome then that will only give you a false low death rate figure.


The little ice age is well documented fact.


The Greenland ice core data is also recognised as well established and well documented scientific fact too!


It is you who is a denier of science you senile old goat!!!

[Tommy Monk]

Italy latest...


Among the 5,061 active cases, 3,218 (55%) are hospitalized, 567 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care

- Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died

[Tommy Monk]

France...


921 active cases



28 cases have reached conclusion...

12 have recovered

16 have died.

[Ben Reilly]

Tommy, I have to say, you are the last person I would have expected to have bought into the hype over this virus.

I actually read a media report on it this morning that is far less alarmist than you are being!

[Guest]

Tommy, I have to say, you are the last person I would have expected to have bought into the hype over this virus.

I actually read a media report on it this morning that is far less alarmist than you are being!

And one media report is to what people should form their views from?

Or the fact that this virus is actually causing the deaths of many people?

Death from flu is under 1%

Death so far from this is near 5%

That is one in 20 people

Hence its very likely this will effect someone we know

This is a real case of denial by people to the extent of what potential harm, this could actually cause and the knock on effects economically from this

And yet you claim this is hype?

Is that really what your view is. Or has Eddie convinced you otherwise mate?

[Tommy Monk]

Tommy, I have to say, you are the last person I would have expected to have bought into the hype over this virus.

I actually read a media report on it this morning that is far less alarmist than you are being!

Maybe you missed this part of one of my earlier posts...


"...And just to put things into perspective a bit... There are around 7,800,000,000 people on the planet... There has been around 100,000 confirmed cases of this corona virus so far... And out of all these cases, about 50,000 have fully recovered, around 50,000 currently have the virus (overwhelming vast majority of these being new recently infected), and around 3,500 have died from it..."

[eddie]

People are panic-buying toilet roll, dried pasta and tinned soup, among other things.

A little over the top.

[Guest]

People are panic-buying toilet roll, dried pasta and tinned soup, among other things.

A little over the top.

That is over the top and exactly how paranoid people act. When they fail to understand the situation
Over 80% of people who get this virus will have a mild dose of this. Its the other 20% we need to ensure to safeguard and protect

Those elderly and those with less effective immune systems

This virus infection has the capacity to bring any country to a stand still

That should provide you with an understanding in how this is far worse than flu

Ignore this at your peril Eddie

['Wolfie]

Tommy's "statistics" aren't simply flawed...

His "death rates" are outright scaremongering bullshit, as he's merely comparing his "recovered" numbers to total deaths to date..

Proves nothing more than what a complete fuckwit Tommy is --  not only hopeless at maths, but zero understanding of statistical analysis, and proper 'methodology'.

(Which we already knew previously, from his climate denial b/s, and his garbled "mini ice age" and "Greenland ice core" claims..).

I stand by what I have been saying these last few weeks...

So Tommys cheer squad (all 2 of them..) now see fit to "red" my comments ?

Come on then, you braindead Englische "hill shepherd" dumbfucks --  keep on redding me for simply telling the truth  !

Every red stripe I get from you spineless maggots is a badge of honour around here, for merely standing up to your meaningless fearmongering tactics..

[Guest]

Tommy's "statistics" aren't simply flawed...

His "death rates" are outright scaremongering bullshit, as he's merely comparing his "recovered" numbers to total deaths to date..

Proves nothing more than what a complete fuckwit Tommy is --  not only hopeless at maths, but zero understanding of statistical analysis, and proper 'methodology'.

(Which we already knew previously, from his climate denial b/s, and his garbled "mini ice age" and "Greenland ice core" claims..).

I stand by what I have been saying these last few weeks...

So Tommys cheer squad (all 2 of them..) now see fit to "red" my comments ?

Come on then, you braindead Englische "hill shepherd" dumbfucks --  keep on redding me for simply telling the truth  !

Every red stripe I get from you spineless maggots is a badge of honour around here, for merely standing up to your meaningless fearmongering tactics..

WOW

Stripes?

Seriously?

[Tommy Monk]

Maybe flea keeper can tell us what he thinks the mortality rate is now...!?


And remind us what he said the mortality rate was at the start of this viral outbreak...!?


Then maybe he could explain why he has 2 totally different figures...!?

[Ben Reilly]

Tommy, I have to say, you are the last person I would have expected to have bought into the hype over this virus.

I actually read a media report on it this morning that is far less alarmist than you are being!

And one media report is to what people should form their views from?

Or the fact that this virus is actually causing the deaths of many people?

Death from flu is under 1%

Death so far from this is near 5%

That is one in 20 people

Hence its very likely this will effect someone we know

This is a real case of denial by people to the extent of what potential harm, this could actually cause and the knock on effects economically from this

And yet you claim this is hype?

Is that really what your view is. Or has Eddie convinced you otherwise mate?

Don't. Just don't make it out like I'm only saying this because it's what's my wife thinks. That's cheap, a poor argument and you're only making yourself look bad.

[eddie]

Perhaps everyone should stop being so fucking abusive when they reply to other posters?

Your anger is a disease that is worse than the coronavirus.

[Original Quill]

It's toddy-time in ye olde England.

[Ben Reilly]

Tommy's "statistics" aren't simply flawed...

His "death rates" are outright scaremongering bullshit, as he's merely comparing his "recovered" numbers to total deaths to date..

Proves nothing more than what a complete fuckwit Tommy is --  not only hopeless at maths, but zero understanding of statistical analysis, and proper 'methodology'.

(Which we already knew previously, from his climate denial b/s, and his garbled "mini ice age" and "Greenland ice core" claims..).

I stand by what I have been saying these last few weeks...

So Tommys cheer squad (all 2 of them..) now see fit to "red" my comments ?

Come on then, you braindead Englische "hill shepherd" dumbfucks --  keep on redding me for simply telling the truth  !

Every red stripe I get from you spineless maggots is a badge of honour around here, for merely standing up to your meaningless fearmongering tactics..

It's prejudiced to use English as a slur, so either stop doing that and apologize, or admit that you are a bigot.

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