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Coronavirus updates (gelico's original thread)

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Post by gelico on Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:15 pm

First topic message reminder :

seems to be spreading rapidly

tests show it started in a animal market

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Post by gelico on Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:12 am




There are currently 75,640 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,121 fatalities.



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Post by Tommy Monk on Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:17 am

Tommy Monk wrote:


Could be a longer incubation period Gelico... Or he simply may have caught it from someone else somewhere else, long after he was tested clear before...



Latest figures...




Active Cases
58,169
Currently Infected Patients
46,113 (79%)
in Mild Condition

12,056 (21%)
Serious or Critical



Closed Cases
17,140
Cases which had an outcome:
15,126 (88%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,014 (12%)
Deaths


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Post by eddie on Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:54 pm

gelico wrote:


There are currently 75,640 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,121 fatalities.



It seems to be downplayed in the media, doesn’t it?

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Post by JulesV on Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:08 am

gelico wrote:


There are currently 75,640 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,121 fatalities.


+1  alien
I like how you provide regular updates on the statistics gelico. I find it useful, saves me googling it or clicking on bbc or sky news. It's easier to just click on this thread!! Keep up the good work. Smile

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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:42 pm

gelico wrote: There are currently 75,640 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,121 fatalities.

But less than this year's common flu.  Although it is recognized as a variant of SARS, it appears to be less dangerous than the common flu, less fatal, and less severe.

This is flu seasons, and I think it's good to be reminded to wash your hands, use sanitizer, etc., but beyond this I don't see what the fuss is all about.  It's the annual flu. All this docking of ships, closing of borders and quarantining of people in military bases, is much ado about nothing.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:25 pm



The fuss is about the fact that this is a relatively new virus that not that much is known about it... And that it seems quite highly contagious plus the fact that 20% of people who have the virus are in serious/critical condition... And that 10% of cases that have reached a conclusion have resulted in death...


Plus the fact that there is a real chance that this virus may mutate nto something that is even more contagious/deadly...!



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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:41 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:The fuss is about the fact that this is a relatively new virus that not that much is known about it...

So, let the universities and the CDC study it. They are quite capable. Running around acting like chicken-little--shouting "the sky is falling"--won't make things any better.

Coronavirus is less contagious and less fatal than the common flu. Drink lots of water, get to bed and get lots of rest, and take two Aleve for associated symptoms...you'll feel better in the morning.

As for the virus mutating, you can't speculate about what will happen in the future. A meteor may hit us before the end of the year. A massive volcanic eruption may happen and kill us all. Worry about unseen and unknown disasters when they arise, don't mythologize about them.

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Post by Guest on Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:50 pm

I think Tommy Monk is delirious through coronavirus.
Where on earth does he invent his figures from?

10% that have reached a conclusion, whatever THAT means. ? Really?? Monk is talking gibberish.

The bang up to date stats show that 78000 have contracted the virus , 2366 have died.

By my sums that is 3%, which is agreed by nearly every world health site.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:29 pm


I get my figures from here...


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


And have posted this link throughout this thread...


Maybe you should try reading properly...




Last edited by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:32 pm




Active Cases

54,301
Currently Infected Patients

42,750 (79%)
in Mild Condition

11,551 (21%)
Serious or Critical



Closed Cases

23,676
Cases which had an outcome:

21,314 (90%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,362 (10%)
Deaths




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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:50 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
I get my figures from here...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And have posted this link throughout this thread...

Maybe you should try reading properly...

What's to read, tommy?

Maybe you could post on the frequency of hiccups? scratch

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:56 pm

Original Quill wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:
I get my figures from here...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And have posted this link throughout this thread...

Maybe you should try reading properly...

What's to read, tommy?

Maybe you could post on the frequency of hiccups? scratch


The statistics I posted earlier can be found on the link... If you bother to read it properly...


Brutus obviously has a problem with reading/understanding the facts that are there on the link that we both use as reference for the numbers on corona virus...



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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:09 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

What's to read, tommy?

Maybe you could post on the frequency of hiccups?  scratch

The statistics I posted earlier can be found on the link... If you bother to read it properly...

Brutus obviously has a problem with reading/understanding the facts that are there on the link that we both use as reference for the numbers on corona virus...

Tommy, no one is questioning the source or the veracity of the statistics. It's about the significance of them, and the illness that they are calibrating. I don't understand what all the fuss is about, when this is just another 'flu' during the flu season.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:32 pm



It's not flu...



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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:37 pm

It's a derivative of SARS, only much less dangerous and threatening. It has the symptoms of the flu, only much less so. It is less fatal than the flu. It apparently thrives during the conditions of the flu season.

Technically, it is not a flu...it's much less.

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Post by Victorismyhero on Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:15 pm

but quill...it aint flu

to be flu it would have to be an influenza virus, this is a corona virus, who's nearest relative is the common cold, a rhinovirus

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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:21 pm

Victorismyhero wrote:but quill...it aint flu

to be flu it would have to be an influenza virus, this is a corona virus, who's nearest relative is the common cold, a rhinovirus

I know.  I'm using 'flu' in the sense of a metaphor.  Apparently, though, it is following the annual flu cycle.

Truth is, it is less than the flu.  According to Dr. Jennifer Ashton, the reason it spreads so far and wide is that people don't know they even have it.  That's testimony to how unremarkable it is.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:38 pm



People won't know they have it during the incubation period that is thought to be as long as 4 weeks without symptoms but whereby they can still transmit the virus to others...



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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:01 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

People won't know they have it during the incubation period that is thought to be as long as 4 weeks without symptoms but whereby they can still transmit the virus to others...

I've heard that. And when the victims are symptomatic, it's so negligible that they walk around as if it is nothing...spreading the illness even further.

But if it's so unremarkable, I don't see what all this fuss is about.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:12 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:


Active Cases

54,301
Currently Infected Patients

42,750 (79%)
in Mild Condition

11,551 (21%)
Serious or Critical



Closed Cases

23,676
Cases which had an outcome:

21,314 (90%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,362 (10%)
Deaths







Did you not see these figures that I posted earlier???


21% of current number of active cases are serious/critical... And out of the number of people where the virus has run its course, 10% have died from it!!!



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Post by eddie on Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:14 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

People won't know they have it during the incubation period that is thought to be as long as 4 weeks without symptoms but whereby they can still transmit the virus to others...



Well that’s the same with any virus or bacterial illness, people don’t know they have it until they get the symptoms - that’s why these things spread.

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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:28 pm

Brutus wrote:I think Tommy Monk is delirious through coronavirus.
Where on earth does he invent his figures from?

10% that have reached a conclusion, whatever THAT means. ? Really?? Monk is talking gibberish.

The bang up to date stats show that 78000 have contracted the virus , 2366  have died.

By my sums that is 3%, which is agreed by nearly every world health site.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Tom, a 3% death rate is not exactly catastrophic, given that some people have other complications, age, illness, etc.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:01 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:


Active Cases

54,301
Currently Infected Patients

42,750 (79%)
in Mild Condition

11,551 (21%)
Serious or Critical



Closed Cases

23,676
Cases which had an outcome:

21,314 (90%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,362 (10%)
Deaths







Did you not see these figures that I posted earlier???


21% of current number of active cases are serious/critical... And out of the number of people where the virus has run its course, 10% have died from it!!!




Reposted for those who still don't understand the figures...



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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:19 pm



Italy cases have risen significantly... And the authorities are locking down towns and closing schools etc... Attempts to contain the spread...


South Korea also has hundreds of cases now... New cases rising significantly too...




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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:22 pm




Active Cases

53,102
Currently Infected Patients

41,533 (78%)
in Mild Condition

11,569 (22%)
Serious or Critical


Closed Cases

25,895
Cases which had an outcome:

23,425 (90%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,470 (10%)
Deaths




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Post by gelico on Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:05 pm

eddie wrote:
gelico wrote:


There are currently 75,640 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,121 fatalities.



It seems to be downplayed in the media, doesn’t it?


i dont really know, edds. i don't watch tv nor read papers so don't really know whats being said

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Post by gelico on Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:11 pm

JulesV wrote:
gelico wrote:


There are currently 75,640 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,121 fatalities.


+1  alien
I like how you provide regular updates on the statistics gelico. I find it useful, saves me googling it or clicking on bbc or sky news. It's easier to just click on this thread!! Keep up the good work. Smile


you are most welcome, jules

i don't actually believe these stats at all.  not from what i've seen online

wuhan residents have been boarded up in their houses.  moreover, the CCP has apparently removed the internet from that area so no more vids coming out from there.

Also there was a video of infection control expert talking of the Princess Diamond cruise ship debacle and how they've let all the passengers just go even though the virus was everywhere on that ship.  that video has now been removed

for the record though

There are currently 79,737 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,627 fatalities.  fatality rate 3.3% (at least so far)



it just got reposted


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op3G0TmInTA

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Post by Tommy Monk on Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:56 pm



Active Cases

51,873
Currently Infected Patients

40,306 (78%)
in Mild Condition

11,567 (22%)
Serious or Critical


Closed Cases

27,901
Cases which had an outcome:

25,272 (91%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,629 (9%)
Deaths


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Post by 'Wolfie on Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:45 am

Tommy Monk wrote:

Active Cases

51,873
Currently Infected Patients

40,306 (78%)
in Mild Condition

11,567 (22%)
Serious or Critical


Closed Cases

27,901
Cases which had an outcome:

25,272 (91%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,629 (9%)
Deaths

Rolling Eyes

More irrelevant and nonsensical bullshit (mis)"calculations" from the forum's resident anti-science fear-mongering self-declared 'genius'...

Go learn a bit about 'Statistical Analysis', you incompetent dipstick..

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Post by Eilzel on Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:40 am

'Wolfie wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:

Active Cases

51,873
Currently Infected Patients

40,306 (78%)
in Mild Condition

11,567 (22%)
Serious or Critical


Closed Cases

27,901
Cases which had an outcome:

25,272 (91%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,629 (9%)
Deaths

Rolling Eyes

More irrelevant and nonsensical bullshit (mis)"calculations" from the forum's resident anti-science fear-mongering self-declared 'genius'...

Go learn a bit about 'Statistical Analysis', you incompetent dipstick..

This thread is running like a beautiful demonstration of how much less tommy knows than he thinks he does (with a sadly devastating backdrop of the virus).

He started out absolutely sure the mortality rate was 20%, and dismissing the given 2-3% rate given by actual experts.
He told everyone this was clear from (his reading of) the figures and wouldn't entertain any of those questioning his methods.

Over the last few weeks his number has fallen and fallen and fallen. And currently he has it at 9% (a more than 50% decline on his original figure).

What's the betting that his number ends up around 2-3%? Wink

And it will turn out the experts (surprise, surprise), knew what they were talking about when they came to their original mortality rate.

I do not for a second pretend to know more than experts in the field of viruses. I wouldn't be presumptive enough to think I know better than someone who has spent their whole academic life and career studying matters such as this. They are called experts for a reason. I don't know how they come to their findings, but I sure as hell don't think they pluck them out of thin air.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:14 am

You two are the fukking idiots!!!


The statistics are on the link supplied by myself and others on this thread!!!


If you two are that stupid that you cannot understand the statistics... Then that's up to you!!!


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Post by 'Wolfie on Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:35 am

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Post by Eilzel on Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:38 am

Tommy Monk wrote:You two are the fukking idiots!!!


The statistics are on the link supplied by myself and others on this thread!!!


If you two are that stupid that you cannot understand the statistics... Then that's up to you!!!


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

From your own link, if you look beyond that single page:

Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.

You are conflating different stats.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:10 am



Listen you cretin...


Say for example...


10000 people got a disease...

And...

9000 recovered from the disease...

And ..

1000 died from the disease...


What would you say the likelihood of someone else who has just caught the disease, will be of them dying from it?



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Post by Eilzel on Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:39 am

Tommy Monk wrote:

Listen you cretin...


Say for example...


10000 people got a disease...

And...

9000 recovered from the disease...

And ..

1000 died from the disease...

What would you say the likelihood of someone else who has just caught the disease, will be of them dying from it?


And yet the experts give a completely different number to what you do. Why do you suppose that is?

And your question misses out the tens of thousands whose disease has yet to run its course. As it is, I'd look at the likelihood given by the experts and say the likely is 2-3%.

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Post by gelico on Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:07 am

Eilzel wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:

Listen you cretin...


Say for example...


10000 people got a disease...

And...

9000 recovered from the disease...

And ..

1000 died from the disease...

What would you say the likelihood of someone else who has just caught the disease, will be of them dying from it?


And yet the experts give a completely different number to what you do. Why do you suppose that is?

And your question misses out the tens of thousands whose disease has yet to run its course. As it is, I'd look at the likelihood given by the experts and say the likely is 2-3%.


well, of course he has, les. that's the whole point

tommy is merely pointing out the stats of the already known outcome

i can see clearly what he's posting and he's right

i'm doing an overall reading including cases of no known outcome which is obviously a much more vague reading



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Post by gelico on Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:11 am



There are currently 80,336 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,706 fatalities.


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Post by Tommy Monk on Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:14 am



The reason why the huge number of new cases is not included in the calculation IS BECAUSE THEY HAVNT RUN THEIR COURSE YET!!!


GOING BY FIGURES OF CASES THAT HAVE RUN THEIR COURSE... AROUND 10% OF THESE NEW CASES WILL LIKELY END UP DYING TOO!!!



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Post by Tommy Monk on Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:17 am

gelico wrote:
Eilzel wrote:

And yet the experts give a completely different number to what you do. Why do you suppose that is?

And your question misses out the tens of thousands whose disease has yet to run its course. As it is, I'd look at the likelihood given by the experts and say the likely is 2-3%.


well, of course he has, les. that's the whole point

tommy is merely pointing out the stats of the already known outcome

i can see clearly what he's posting and he's right

i'm doing an overall reading including cases of no known outcome which is obviously a much more vague reading




Thank you Gelico... !!!


Why are others here so stupid...!!!???



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Post by Tommy Monk on Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:29 am




And... I have already explained what I'm posting and why...


In the stats I've posted, it even says that they are figures for cases that have reached conclusion... ie cases that have run their course!



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Post by Tommy Monk on Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:35 am



Active Cases

49,807
Currently Infected Patients

40,592 (81%)
in Mild Condition

9,215 (19%)
Serious or Critical




Closed Cases

30,534
Cases which had an outcome:

27,827 (91%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,707 (9%)
Deaths




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Post by Eilzel on Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:27 pm

gelico wrote:
Eilzel wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:

Listen you cretin...


Say for example...


10000 people got a disease...

And...

9000 recovered from the disease...

And ..

1000 died from the disease...

What would you say the likelihood of someone else who has just caught the disease, will be of them dying from it?


And yet the experts give a completely different number to what you do. Why do you suppose that is?

And your question misses out the tens of thousands whose disease has yet to run its course. As it is, I'd look at the likelihood given by the experts and say the likely is 2-3%.


well, of course he has, les.  that's the whole  point

tommy is merely pointing out the stats of the already known outcome

i can see clearly what he's posting and he's right

i'm doing an overall reading including cases of no known outcome which is obviously a much more vague reading



What he said originally was that the mortality rate was 20%.

Even by his own current stats that is wrong.

The given mortality rate, by experts in the field, is 2-3%.

Are you BOTH saying the experts are incorrect?

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Post by gelico on Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:57 pm

Eilzel wrote:
gelico wrote:


well, of course he has, les.  that's the whole  point

tommy is merely pointing out the stats of the already known outcome

i can see clearly what he's posting and he's right

i'm doing an overall reading including cases of no known outcome which is obviously a much more vague reading



What he said originally was that the mortality rate was 20%.

Even by his own current stats that is wrong.

The given mortality rate, by experts in the field, is 2-3%.

Are you BOTH saying the experts are incorrect?

les, tommy is getting his figures from legitimate sources

it's not about being wrong

it's about knowing the difference between known outcome and unknown outcome

the stats will clearly change depending on one or the other




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Post by Eilzel on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:10 pm

gelico wrote:
Eilzel wrote:
gelico wrote:


well, of course he has, les.  that's the whole  point

tommy is merely pointing out the stats of the already known outcome

i can see clearly what he's posting and he's right

i'm doing an overall reading including cases of no known outcome which is obviously a much more vague reading



What he said originally was that the mortality rate was 20%.

Even by his own current stats that is wrong.

The given mortality rate, by experts in the field, is 2-3%.

Are you BOTH saying the experts are incorrect?

les, tommy is getting his figures from legitimate sources

it's not about being wrong

it's about knowing the difference between known outcome and unknown outcome

the stats will clearly change depending on one or the other




Just because the figures show the results of cases that have run their course does not mean you can use those numbers alone to calculate the actual mortality rate.

The exact same source has a link to the same website that gives the mortality rate as 2-3%.

Every other report giving the mortality rate has the same figure. And, not being an expert on these matters, I can only guess this figure takes into account things like age and preexisting conditions

Now, if tommy is ONLY saying that 'of all finished cases 9% have ended in death' then that's fine. I agree, as that is what the facts show.

But the mortality rate is something else. The mortality is the statistical liklihood of death for those infected. This figure is NOT 9%, just like it wasn't 20% - the figure tommy claimed in the first place.

The figure weeks ago was 2-3%, and it still is now according to every source I've read or heard.

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Post by Vintage on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:15 pm

Who are the experts? have you heard of any of them?
Do governments tell the truth.
The death rate and recovery rate and the fact that many people hardly seem to suffer much ill effects, as reports seem to be saying, belies the lock down and apparent lock ins we've been officially and unofficially told about. If it was plague or Ebola or such viruses I could understand it. Apparently its highly contagious but if the illness isn't too debilitating for many its not going to have a great effect, although we then hear of Chinese hospitals being full and the government building thousand bed hospitals in two weeks, which seems to indicate its more debilitating, I could also understand the economic and social chaos that would happen. The whole thing is very contradictory.

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Post by gelico on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:30 pm

Eilzel wrote:
gelico wrote:

les, tommy is getting his figures from legitimate sources

it's not about being wrong

it's about knowing the difference between known outcome and unknown outcome

the stats will clearly change depending on one or the other




Just because the figures show the results of cases that have run their course does not mean you can use those numbers alone to calculate the actual mortality rate.

The exact same source has a link to the same website that gives the mortality rate as 2-3%.

Every other report giving the mortality rate has the same figure. And, not being an expert on these matters, I can only guess this figure takes into account things like age and preexisting conditions

Now, if tommy is ONLY saying that 'of all finished cases 9% have ended in death' then that's fine. I agree, as that is what the facts show.

But the mortality rate is something else. The mortality is the statistical liklihood of death for those infected. This figure is NOT 9%, just like it wasn't 20% - the figure tommy claimed in the first place.

The figure weeks ago was 2-3%, and it still is now according to every source I've read or heard.


yes, that's exactly what he's saying

the 3% figure which is what it currently stands it includes all cases except the princess diamond ship

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Post by Guest on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:41 pm

There is little point trying to predict the mortality rate. If we end up going past the tipping point of which it is now very close. If this happens and this spirals out of control and millions become infected. Then countries will be unable to cope. Many will end up without the medical care required to treat them. Let alone how economies would suffer and the potential for anarchy to arise. If stringent measures are put in place

If this does spiral out of control, I imagine many will be left to their on devisees to cope with this. If they indeed they become infected. So where now many can be treated, thus aiding in the recovery rate. People need to also factor in when this will get to a point. Where hospitals will have past breaking point. In trying to treat this.

If that happens, its likely the mortality rate will rise even higher.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:43 pm



The survival/death rate was 80%/20% a few days ago... But now more people have been treated successfully and the figure has changed to 90%/10%...


It seems pretty obvious to me that it is pointless including 50000 new current cases into the calculation because as yet, it is unknown what will become of them until the virus runs its course...


And say there are an extra 100000 cases in a couple days... Including them too will just skew the figures even more out of likely outcome going by cases that have run their course...


It is still the case that out of active cases... 80% of them are mild and 20% are serious/critical...



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Post by Tommy Monk on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:48 pm

And yes didge... If this thing gets a hold over here... There will be too many to give adequate treatment to and death rate will likely be back up to 20% or even higher...



And say 40 million people here in UK actually get it... That will likely kill around 800,000 people...



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Post by Eilzel on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:52 pm

gelico wrote:
Eilzel wrote:
gelico wrote:

les, tommy is getting his figures from legitimate sources

it's not about being wrong

it's about knowing the difference between known outcome and unknown outcome

the stats will clearly change depending on one or the other




Just because the figures show the results of cases that have run their course does not mean you can use those numbers alone to calculate the actual mortality rate.

The exact same source has a link to the same website that gives the mortality rate as 2-3%.

Every other report giving the mortality rate has the same figure. And, not being an expert on these matters, I can only guess this figure takes into account things like age and preexisting conditions

Now, if tommy is ONLY saying that 'of all finished cases 9% have ended in death' then that's fine. I agree, as that is what the facts show.

But the mortality rate is something else. The mortality is the statistical liklihood of death for those infected. This figure is NOT 9%, just like it wasn't 20% - the figure tommy claimed in the first place.

The figure weeks ago was 2-3%, and it still is now according to every source I've read or heard.


yes, that's exactly what he's saying

the 3%  figure which is what it currently stands it includes all cases except the princess diamond ship

That wasn't what he said on page 2, but fair enough if that's the case now Smile

I agree with didge that if it gets out of control things may change - though generally it seems to mainly be life threatening to the eldery and those with preexisting conditions.

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