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Coronavirus updates (gelico's original thread)

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Post by gelico on Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:15 pm

First topic message reminder :

seems to be spreading rapidly

tests show it started in a animal market

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Post by Vintage on Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:30 pm

Something doesn't add up here. There must be a lot more to this than is being reported.
2% mortality rate and deaths are those of underlying medical issues, yet we have cities
locked down, forcible quarantines (people forcibly taken away by authorities) bloggers reporting its worse than reported going into hiding, doctors reporting its worse than reported picked up by police for scare mongering (one has since died if the disease) what the heck is really going on?

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Post by nicko on Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:45 am

Your quite right, something doesn't add up !
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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:44 pm



I think it is likely much worse than is being reported...



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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:49 pm

Vintage wrote:Something doesn't add up here. There must be a lot more to this than is being reported.
2% mortality rate and deaths are those of  underlying medical issues, yet we have cities
locked down, forcible quarantines (people forcibly taken away by authorities) bloggers reporting its worse than reported going into hiding, doctors reporting its worse than reported picked up by police for scare mongering (one has since died if the disease) what the heck is really going on?

I think you are right, vintage. Things don't add up. According to what the authorities are telling us, this should be a negligible, lite flu run. Yet the people in the know are not acting that way. Yes...there's something they are not telling us.

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Post by gelico on Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:23 pm




There are currently 37,111 confirmed cases worldwide, including 806 fatalities.


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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:30 pm



I bet the actual number of cases out there that are as yet unconfirmed... Is at least 10 X higher...

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:34 pm

On news earlier it was said that one of the currently confirmed uk cases was a bloke who was said to have been out in a pub in Hove, a couple days before becoming ill...



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Post by Ben Reilly on Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:51 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

I bet the actual number of cases out there that are as yet unconfirmed... Is at least 10 X higher...

I bet you're right.

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Post by Original Quill on Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:21 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:

I bet the actual number of cases out there that are as yet unconfirmed... Is at least 10 X higher...

I bet you're right.

It's not the number of cases that worries me. It's the severity of the illness. There are too many lock-downs, passengers who are quarantined to the ship, people who can't travel, lock-outs, etc., for this to be a lite flu. There's something they are not telling us.

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Post by nicko on Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:47 am

Nobody said it was a "light Flu" did they ?
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Post by gelico on Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:45 pm




https://twitter.com/Anfield_king/status/1225674232719298560




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Post by Original Quill on Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:45 pm

nicko wrote: Nobody said it was a "light Flu" did they ?

Yes.  A week or two ago they were saying that the reason c-virus traveled so fast was that, when contracted, the symptoms were so negligible that people ignored them and went out, traveled and openly intermingled with crowds.  The implication that I got was that it was a lightweight illness.

Obviously, so many deaths (more than SARS now) belie that.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:52 pm




I saw a bit of news yesterday I think, where it was said that about 80% of cases were mild, 15% were severe and 5% critical...


And I read that the worst cases were because of pneumonia developing in sufferers and/or kidney failure...

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Post by Original Quill on Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:10 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:


I saw a bit of news yesterday I think, where it was said that about 80% of cases were mild, 15% were severe and 5% critical...

And I read that the worst cases were because of pneumonia developing in sufferers and/or kidney failure...

Yes, pneumonia is frequently a complication with flu and colds. I think I was misled by early reports that tried to minimize the illness. The impression I got was that it was less than a common cold.

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Post by gelico on Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:55 pm



a lot more apparently


https://twitter.com/DarrenPlymouth/status/1226494771117666305




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Post by Original Quill on Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:20 pm

Carolyn Everett
@CarolynD72355
·
2h
Replying to
@DarrenPlymouth
This virus is a biological weapon. No other way to look at it.

I can't help but point out that this is the kind of thing we can expect as a result of dropping our guard. The conservative war against regulations (public protection), plus the general reluctance in this country (US) to invest in healthcare, are directly caused by the conservative minimization of health risk.

I have many times pointed out the similarity of the missions of our Department of Defense and our Health Department. The common interest of each is to repel attacks on the American public. Defense faces the external enemy, while Health faces the internal enemy. But beyond that, the mission is the same.

The above quote of Carolyn Everett, to the effect that c-virus could well be a biological weapon, brings the point home. Whether or not it is a biological weapon is a matter of intent of the adversary. But as is pointed out so often, intent or motive is a side question. The real question is how to combat the forces arrayed against us.

This is an timely occasion to advocate for the merger of the Department of Defense, and the Healthcare effort in the US.

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Post by Vintage on Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:07 pm

This situation is getting stranger by the hour, there is obviously something going on if those emissions have been detected. It takes two to three hours to cremate the average human, don't know about China but here it averages four - 6 cremators at each facility, could be getting through 32 per day at each facility of which there are 49 if the report is true, so they could be cremating anything from 1,500 to 1,760 a day.
Spanish Flu was 3 - 5% of the world's population, bad but not exactly an wipe out of human beings.

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Post by gelico on Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:28 pm



There are currently 40,134 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904 fatalities.


That is the official version but from the few bits and pieces i've seen, it seems way more. there was a video of police barricading tenants into their properties.

massive military style trucks with some kind of solution being hosed all over the place

streets deserted



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Post by Vintage on Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:36 pm

I've seen videos of people being dragged out of their homes literally kicking and screaming, haven't seen the barricading thing. That was done in the Black Death time.
The only time I've seen anything like that was in a film Contagion - rabies outbreak.
If this is happening and I can't see why there are so many videos etc are appearing if its all lies, what is so bad with this disease, is it that its so contagious even if the death rate is supposedly low, that if the majority of people get it, everything will collapse - law and order, health care etc. and chaos will reign? If people survive and regain their health that shouldn't happen - should it?

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Post by Vintage on Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:56 pm

Some mysterious disease in Nigeria now, 104 dead, sickness, diarrhoea and swelling.

Correction looking at more papers its over a hundred affected and 14 deaths, others say over hundred affected 4 dead. So another cover up?

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Post by gelico on Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:59 pm



https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10913096/coronavirus-uk-china-wuhan-live-updates/



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Post by gelico on Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:29 pm




There are currently 42,729 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,013 fatalities.




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Post by Tommy Monk on Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:32 pm


This link has detailed updates and info...


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Post by Tommy Monk on Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:15 am




An interesting, and also worrying statistic is that out of all the cases so far that have reached their full conclusion... ie recovered or died...


There are about 5000 cases that have run their full course...


About 4000 have fully recovered and now testing clear of the virus...


About 1000 have died from the virus...


So the recovery/death rate is 80%/20%...



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Post by gelico on Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:24 pm




There are currently 44,754 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,112 fatalities.




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Post by Vintage on Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:32 pm

Just hears there were two Surgeries and five schools closed due to suspect virus. One surgery is now open again don't know about the rest yet.

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Post by 'Wolfie on Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:27 am

gelico wrote:


There are currently 44,754 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,112 fatalities.


Idea

A few days ago, when the "official" figure for confirmed cases in China was over 38,000, the ABC news here reported that China had passed 50,000 cases (with the ABC's figures coming from the Chinese medicos, rather than the official guvm'nt figures..).

This correlates to a "lag" of around 30% between the suspected/recognised local figures and the guvm'nts 'updated' figures -- remembering that it takes a few days to get test results and move from "suspected" to "confirmed"..

With over 50,000 confirmed cases in China so far, and just over 1,000 deaths, the 'mortality rate' is staying around that 2 -- 2.2 % level.

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Post by 'Wolfie on Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:33 am

Tommy Monk wrote:


An interesting, and also worrying statistic is that out of all the cases so far that have reached their full conclusion... ie recovered or died...


There are about 5000 cases that have run their full course...


About 4000 have fully recovered and now testing clear of the virus...


About 1000 have died from the virus...


So the recovery/death rate is 80%/20%...


Rolling Eyes

Your bullshit figures are ridiculous, meaningless scaremongering...

Out of 50,000+ confirmed cases in China so far, there have been just over 1,000 deaths..

Maintaining the mortality rate at the 2 --> 2.2% level.


No wonder you keep on fucking up so badly with your equally idiotic climate denial claims..

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Post by Tommy Monk on Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:25 am

'Wolfie wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:


An interesting, and also worrying statistic is that out of all the cases so far that have reached their full conclusion... ie recovered or died...


There are about 5000 cases that have run their full course...


About 4000 have fully recovered and now testing clear of the virus...


About 1000 have died from the virus...


So the recovery/death rate is 80%/20%...


Rolling Eyes

Your bullshit figures are ridiculous, meaningless scaremongering...

Out of 50,000+ confirmed cases in China so far, there have been just over 1,000 deaths..

Maintaining the mortality rate at the 2 --> 2.2% level.


No wonder you keep on fucking up so badly with your equally idiotic climate denial claims..




All you are showing everyone, is that you are an idiot who fails to read/understand the details of what is being said...!


To accurately measure the mortality rate... You cannot include numbers of current sufferers against the numbers who have actually died as a result of the virus...


You should be comparing the number of people who have survived after having had the virus and now clear from the virus... against the number who have had the virus and died from it...!!!



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Post by Tommy Monk on Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:32 am

Tommy Monk wrote:
This link has detailed updates and info...


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/



Reposted for the hard of thinking...


(Hint - try looking at the figures for confirmed survivors compared with confirmed deaths)



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Post by Tommy Monk on Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:54 am




Closed Cases
5,909
Cases which had an outcome:


4,794 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,115 (19%)
Deaths

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Post by Vintage on Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:18 am

Watched a programme again last night re: pandemic in Britain, it used an app to see how people moved around and would therefore move the virus around. It was started in the south of England and quickly spread all over London, within a month it was pretty widespread by two months it was in every built up area in the country and Northern Ireland. The estimate was 43 million infected and although most of the original infected would have recovered by the second month the disruption to the country would be terrible, especially

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Post by Vintage on Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:25 am

This thing has a mind of i ts own.

in health service, security and food distribution not to mention disposal of bodies. The number of fatalities would be around 870.000 based on 2%. The infection rate was based on 1.8%. So although any deaths would be regrettable it's more the disruption that would cause problems.

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Post by Original Quill on Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:45 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:All you are showing everyone, is that you are an idiot who fails to read/understand the details of what is being said...!

Thomas, you are such an opinionated asshole. Don't you have anything substantive to say in retort?

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Post by Original Quill on Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:47 pm

Now has a new name: Covid-19.  Stands for CoronaVirus Disease-19.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:16 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
'Wolfie wrote:
Rolling Eyes

Your bullshit figures are ridiculous, meaningless scaremongering...

Out of 50,000+ confirmed cases in China so far, there have been just over 1,000 deaths..

Maintaining the mortality rate at the 2 --> 2.2% level.


No wonder you keep on fucking up so badly with your equally idiotic climate denial claims..




All you are showing everyone, is that you are an idiot who fails to read/understand the details of what is being said...!


To accurately measure the mortality rate... You cannot include numbers of current sufferers against the numbers who have actually died as a result of the virus...


You should be comparing the number of people who have survived after having had the virus and now clear from the virus... against the number who have had the virus and died from it...!!!





Quill... Maybe you missed the rest of my post while you were busy just quoting one part of it...


And I made more posts after this, explaining further...


Is that not *substantive" enough...!?



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Post by Original Quill on Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:44 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:




All you are showing everyone, is that you are an idiot who fails to read/understand the details of what is being said...!

To accurately measure the mortality rate... You cannot include numbers of current sufferers against the numbers who have actually died as a result of the virus...

You should be comparing the number of people who have survived after having had the virus and now clear from the virus... against the number who have had the virus and died from it...!!!


Quill... Maybe you missed the rest of my post while you were busy just quoting one part of it...

And I made more posts after this, explaining further...

Is that not *substantive" enough...!?

Well, it's a step in the right direction. But why lead off with insulting nonsense? That is certainly not contributing to the discussion.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:03 pm

I was responding in a similar manner to which I was addressed by the idiot...



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Post by Original Quill on Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:25 pm

Ignore it.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:29 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:


An interesting, and also worrying statistic is that out of all the cases so far that have reached their full conclusion... ie recovered or died...


There are about 5000 cases that have run their full course...


About 4000 have fully recovered and now testing clear of the virus...


About 1000 have died from the virus...


So the recovery/death rate is 80%/20%...





Back to topic...



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Post by eddie on Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:25 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:


I saw a bit of news yesterday I think, where it was said that about 80% of cases were mild, 15% were severe and 5% critical...


And I read that the worst cases were because of pneumonia developing in sufferers and/or kidney failure...

The flu is like that. Most people don’t die from the flu, it’s just a very severe cold with a fever. Only people with weak immune systems like the elderly or critically ill, ever really suffer from flu symptoms.

Pretty much why I won’t have the flu jab or give it to my kids.

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Post by Ben Reilly on Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:57 pm

Have to say, there are plenty of great reasons to get immunized against the flu even if you're healthy. Just have to say that.

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Post by Original Quill on Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:09 am

eds wrote:Pretty much why I won’t have the flu jab or give it to my kids.

Well, there's nothing wrong with vaccination, per se.  There's to glory to be had in getting the flu, just because you are not at risk because of age or other vulnerabilities.

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Post by Cass on Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:45 am

Ben Reilly wrote:Have to say, there are plenty of great reasons to get immunized against the flu even if you're healthy. Just have to say that.

I agree. It was never offered in the UK much at all when I was there. Since moving here I have had it pretty much every year. Never any side effects. I consider it a top priority when working in a income poor, rural area. People here cannot afford to go even to the local sliding scale clinics let alone afford medication. I’m just VERY glad that I can get it through employer insurance, as well as Hep A this year. But every year I get something noxious from a patron.

Getting the flu vaccine won’t necessarily stop you from getting the flu, it all depends on what strain is strongest that year and whether or not the vaccine is covering that strain. It’s so important for those who already have an illness or are older. I’ve had genuine flu a handful of times in my life and believe you me, you can tell the difference and I never ever want it again.

I’ve had my annual bout of bronchitis last month but lucky me, it wasn’t blasted by the ineffective weaker antibiotics that I was proscribed the first time in spite of me telling the doctor they were useless. It came back last week along with an amusing sinus infection. Moms visit to China next month has been canceled obviously, so she’s given me her masks to wear on the plane. But honestly if you look at the world’s population so far this is a tiny speck compared to other pandemics. I honestly believe that fear inducing over social media has sparked this. But the major media streams are damned if they report on it, damned if they don’t.

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Post by gelico on Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:10 am



There are currently 60,017 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,355 fatalities.




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Post by 'Wolfie on Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:20 am

Original Quill wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:All you are showing everyone, is that you are an idiot who fails to read/understand the details of what is being said...!

Thomas, you are such an opinionated asshole.  Don't you have anything substantive to say in retort?
Razz

Tommy isn't simply a self-opinionated fuckwit...
And a self-declared "genius"..

He still remains one of the stupidest dolts on here.
Calling his detractors "idiots",  when it's he himself who posts up the unintelligable dross to start with..

Here we see the ignorant fool attempting to redefine the term "mortality rate" to excuse his own scaremongering conspiracy-bullshit agendas...

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Post by Eilzel on Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:38 am

'Wolfie wrote:
Original Quill wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:All you are showing everyone, is that you are an idiot who fails to read/understand the details of what is being said...!

Thomas, you are such an opinionated asshole.  Don't you have anything substantive to say in retort?
Razz

Tommy isn't simply a self-opinionated fuckwit...
And a self-declared "genius"..

He still remains one of the stupidest dolts on here.
Calling his detractors "idiots",  when it's he himself who posts up the unintelligable dross to start with..

Here we see the ignorant fool attempting to redefine the term "mortality rate" to excuse his own scaremongering conspiracy-bullshit agendas...

Didn't you hear? Tommy is smarter than 90% of the world's scientists. No one knows more about science than tommy. He says so himself.

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Post by Tommy Monk on Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:58 am






The mortality rate can only be accurately determined by looking at the number of cases of those who have recovered from the virus and those who have been killed by the virus...


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/



Closed Cases


Cases which had an outcome: 7331


5,963 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged


1,368 (19%)
Deaths






You can't calculate the mortality rate by including huge numbers of new cases into the equation... Where it is yet to be established how many of these cases will result in death or recovery... And whereby this won't be known until the virus has run it's course in each of those suffering from it...




This is pretty simple and straightforward common sense thinking for anyone with half a brain...


If you fail to understand this... Then you really must be an idiot...!!!



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Post by Tommy Monk on Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:01 am

Eilzel wrote:
'Wolfie wrote:
Razz

Tommy isn't simply a self-opinionated fuckwit...
And a self-declared "genius"..

He still remains one of the stupidest dolts on here.
Calling his detractors "idiots",  when it's he himself who posts up the unintelligable dross to start with..

Here we see the ignorant fool attempting to redefine the term "mortality rate" to excuse his own scaremongering conspiracy-bullshit agendas...

Didn't you hear? Tommy is smarter than 90% of the world's scientists. No one knows more about science than tommy. He says so himself.


I am smarter than you...

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Post by Original Quill on Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:08 am

Tommy Monk wrote:The mortality rate can only be accurately determined by looking at the number of cases of those who have recovered from the virus and those who have been killed by the virus...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed Cases

Cases which had an outcome: 7331

5,963 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,368 (19%)
Deaths

You can't calculate the mortality rate by including huge numbers of new cases into the equation... Where it is yet to be established how many of these cases will result in death or recovery... And whereby this won't be known until the virus has run it's course in each of those suffering from it...

This is pretty simple and straightforward common sense thinking for anyone with half a brain...

If you fail to understand this... Then you really must be an idiot...!!!

Tommy, fgs figure it out. Mortality = total contracted — survivors. Those who recovered are the survivors. And deal in whole numbers, fgs, don't deal in statistics...you can't summarize a summary statistic.

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