Around half the UK population have now already had covid19

by Tommy Monk Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:24 pm

First topic message reminder :

It is said that for every case that requires hospital treatment, there are at least another 100 cases in the wider population.

Going by that figure, it is now likely to be around 30 million people here in UK who have already had covid19.

And having already had their immune systems successfully fight off this new virus... They don't need any vaccine.

We are not talking about smallpox here, or the plague or ebola etc... We are talking about a version of the common cold virus that for nearly 99.9% of people it causes either no symptoms or mild/moderate symptoms much like influenza causes.

by Original Quill Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:38 pm

Syl wrote:Tommy, this virus hasn't been 'sweeping through the country for 14 months'.
You have a habit of saying something once then continuously repeating it as if it were a fact.

It's the Goebbels Effect, from Joseph Goebbels, who said:

Joseph Goebbels wrote:If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State. Highlight added

This technique has been adopted by the Russian state propaganda organ, the Internet Research Agency (IRA), of St. Petersburg, Russia (known as the Russian troll farm), to sow chaos in western political mechanisms (via Internet), to Russian oligarchs' advantage. https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/04/big-lies-and-rotten-herrings-17-kremlin-disinformation-techniques-you-need-to-know-now/

by Syl Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:18 pm

I don't think Tommy is lying, I just think he is convinced he is right.
He may read somewhere that certain things are factual, but there may be many other experts who say the opposite.....or even admit they are just not 100% sure as so much is still not proven with this virus.

I do believe the government figures are as accurate as they can be, I just don't think they have reason to lie about this.

The Geobbels effect you mention...
I haven't heard of that, but it sounds like what I have always termed (especially on forums) the 'Russian doll' effect.

Someone will say something, others add their own version bit by bit, till eventually the truth is just a grain buried deep inside the padding...a bit like a tiny Russian doll that gets put within bigger and bigger ones. Shocked

by Tommy Monk Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:24 pm

Syl wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:

Been going around here in UK since November 2019...

We're now in January 2021...

How many months is that...?

Depends whether you believe in rumour or actual cases confirmed and verified by the WHO experts and world governments.
I had norovirus in January, you probably had similar....some people insist they had corona.

"When did coronavirus first come to the UK?"

"The first confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK were on January 29, when two Chinese nationals fell ill at the Staycity Aparthotel in York. On February 6, a British businessman in Brighton was diagnosed with the virus after catching in in Singapore. The so-called ‘super spreader’ was later linked to 11 other cases, five of which were in the UK. Later that month, on February 28, the first person to catch coronavirus in the UK was diagnosed, a man who lived in Surrey, but who had not been abroad."

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/19/first-case-coronavirus-uk-covid-19-diagnosis-12578061/?ito=cbshare

https://bfpg.co.uk/2020/04/covid-19-timeline/

Bloody hell Syl!!!

I had it in the beginning of February!!!

And shit loads more people had it before me!!!

The official story is wrong!!!

I thought we'd already gone through all this months ago!!!???

It has been going around since November!!!

A fella who played in a band died of it here in UK after they played a gig in China in November!

And I worked in a hospital for 4 months from april, and I spoke to a few of the medics there, one was a surgeon, and they all said they believed it was going around at the end of 2019 too!

by Tommy Monk Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:28 pm

And Syl... How can the testing figures show all the cases when they weren't even doing more than a couple of thousand a day back in march/April but hospital admissions and deaths were higher than they have been over the last few months where they have been doing 300,000-400,000 tests a day...?

by Tommy Monk Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:25 pm

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8379405/Experts-admit-possible-Covid-19-UK-DECEMBER.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1282368/coronavirus-uk-scientists-deaths-october-december-china-wuhan-pandemic-ons-data-spt

by Tommy Monk Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:29 pm

In France they looked at samples from December from pneumonia patients and found covid was there in December...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1278034/Coronavirus-symptoms-December-france-first-case

And if it was in France then, then it was here in UK too!

by Syl Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:15 am

Tommy Monk wrote:

In France they looked at samples from December from pneumonia patients and found covid was there in December...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1278034/Coronavirus-symptoms-December-france-first-case

And if it was in France then, then it was here in UK too!

Even if the French Dr's report was accurate, it hasnt been comfirmed offficially, and one man showing signs of the virus in France in late December hardly equates to the virus sweeping this country since November.

Your article just states the official recorded timeline..it says....

"Cases of coronavirus in Europe were first detected in January, with the first reports of cases coming from France.
No similar findings have yet emerged within the UK, however other countries are revising their timelines in light of the findings, going back to see if now-suspected cases could have been early carriers of the virus."

by Tommy Monk Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:10 am

Syl... It has been in this country since at least November... Possibly even a little earlier...

https://www.catherinemayer.co.uk/post/2020-vision-14-may-16-00

by Syl Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:27 am

Tommy Monk wrote:

Syl... It has been in this country since at least November... Possibly even a little earlier...

https://www.catherinemayer.co.uk/post/2020-vision-14-may-16-00

Tommy, sometimes people have to look for reasons when someone dies.
Many people, including my best friends husband died in January, with some symptoms that could be associated with Covid19.....he had COPD, and that's what he died of.

It's well documented when the first case was recorded in the UK..

by Tommy Monk Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:40 am

Bullshit!!!

It's been going around in the UK since before Christmas 2019!!!

by Tommy Monk Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:33 am

Syl wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:

In France they looked at samples from December from pneumonia patients and found covid was there in December...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1278034/Coronavirus-symptoms-December-france-first-case

And if it was in France then, then it was here in UK too!

Even if the French Dr's report was accurate, it hasnt been comfirmed offficially, and one man showing signs of the virus in France in late December hardly equates to the virus sweeping this country since November.

Your article just states the official recorded timeline..it says....

"Cases of coronavirus in Europe were first detected in January, with the first reports of cases coming from France.
No similar findings have yet emerged within the UK, however other countries are revising their timelines in light of the findings, going back to see if now-suspected cases could have been early carriers of the virus."

The French guy died of "pneumonia" in December... France officially didn't recognise the existence/arrival of covid in the country until some time in January...

The samples of this dead man were tested retrospectively and found to have been positive for covid... And he must have contracted it at least a number of weeks before he actually died from it...

So it must have been going around in France in November 2019... Because other people had it before him and were spreading it around for him to have caught it in the first place... And he was also contagious and spreading it around for the number of weeks he had it too, before he died...

So stop denying the obvious... If it was going around in France Nov 2019, which it most certainly was... Then you can bet your life that it was also going around here in UK at least as early as that time too!!!

by Syl Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:14 pm

Your newslinks are not recognised by the official figures, and sad though the letter the widow wrote was....are you seriously expecting scientists, experts in infectious disease who have devoted their lives to study, not to mention the World Health Organisation, to change all their studied official data to accommodate one Dr's opinion and one widows search to find other reasons her obviously seriously ill of various different diseases her husband died of?
Incidentally, she herself says at the end of the letter she simply doesn't know if her husband had Covid19 or not.

by Tommy Monk Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:52 pm

The experts are not unanimous...

There is a huge body of opinion that believes the covid virus was here in UK since at least Nov 2019.

by Syl Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:53 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

The experts are not unanimous...

There is a huge body of opinion that believes the covid virus was here in UK since at least Nov 2019.

There is also a huge body of opinion that are convinced the moon is made of blue cheese and their OH is an alien. alien

by Tommy Monk Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:23 pm

Ok Syl... So what do you think the real total number of UK cases are?

And explain your methodology for calculating your educated guesstimate...?

by Syl Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:52 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

Ok Syl... So what do you think the real total number of UK cases are?

And explain your methodology for calculating your educated guesstimate...?

I have no idea how many people have had it....and if I don't know (and neither do you) I don't make wild guesses.

I believe as was reported yesterday that in England 1 in 50 presently have it, and that figure is more like 1 in 30 in London, so obviously the figure is very high SINCE this new variant that is 70% more contagious than the original coronavirus came into play.

These are the latest figures, published though they don't always tally with other official statistics.

England cases
Updated 6 Jan at 16:31 local
Confirmed
2,394,923
+54,940
Deaths
66,626
+784
Recovered
0
United Kingdom cases
Updated 6 Jan at 16:31 local
Confirmed
2,774,479
+60,916
Deaths
76,305
+874

by Tommy Monk Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:42 pm

I'm not making a "wild guess"... And I'm not asking you to do so either...

I asked people to think about what the actual number might be, and to provide a sensible estimate based on reasoned calculation of known data and other likely factor, and to provide the methodology used in reaching their figure.

An estimation is an approximation of a value. We estimate when we do not need an exact answer but just one that is close enough.

So let's hear what you think the likely actual number is?

And your methodology behind this figure?

by Original Quill Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:54 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

I'm not making a "wild guess"... And I'm not asking you to do so either...

I asked people to think about what the actual number might be, and to provide a sensible estimate based on reasoned calculation of known data and other likely factor, and to provide the methodology used in reaching their figure.

An estimation is an approximation of a value. We estimate when we do not need an exact answer but just one that is close enough.

So let's hear what you think the likely actual number is?

And your methodology behind this figure?

Sounds like you're asking for a wild guess. There is no basis by which to guess "the real total number of UK cases are?"

In the US there was outright government suppression of that not only that number, but the "methodology" (testing) by which it might be ascertained. The answer is lost forever.

If the UK did the same, it could only be a wild guess.

by Tommy Monk Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:23 pm

I didn't ask for a wild guess... I asked for an estimate.

If you don't know the difference then your opinion here is superfluous to debate.

Estimating involves formulas and calculations to get the lengths, areas, volumes or weights. It also requires imagination, assumptions and judgment. It is science (though not fully) until the quantity take-offs and art comes into play during pricing.

Estimation (or estimating) is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable. The value is nonetheless usable because it is derived from the best information available.

I have thrown my hat into the ring by giving my estimated figure, based on the known data, and then calculated by what I think are the other most likely multiplying factors.

I have provided the reasoning and methodology I have used to reach my conclusion.

If you think that any of the numbers/factors that I have used are wrong... Then please tell me which ones you disagree with, and then provide me with the numbers/factors that you think are more accurate, and your reasons why...?

by Original Quill Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:45 pm

Tommy Monk wrote: I didn't ask for a wild guess...

Yes you did. Given the constraints, any estimate would be a wild guess. It's one and the same.

by Syl Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:06 am

I would prefer to rely on the official estimates presuming they have access to more relevant data than I do.

Some official figures show so far the UK has had less than 3 million people infected, out of a population of aprox 68 million, that would be less than 5%.

The ONS reckons it's now nearer 9% of adults in the UK who have been infected.

So anything between that figure, but obviously rising rapidly since the new more infectious strain morphed.

by Tommy Monk Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:45 am

Come on Syl... try using the power of your own brain and give it some independent thought... Instead of being led by the nose by the hysterical bullshit that is flying around in the media echo chamber...

You posted earlier that the UK total for confirmed cases is currently at 2,774,479...

Although in the last 4 months alone, we have reportedly had around 2,400,000 of these confirmed tested cases!!!

How can you claim that the confirmed positive tested figure is in any way an accurate account of actual number of cases here in UK?

by Tommy Monk Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:59 am

Original Quill wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote: I didn't ask for a wild guess...

Yes you did. Given the constraints, any estimate would be a wild guess. It's one and the same.

No... It's entirely possible to calculate some estimations based on the available data that we do know!

We know numbers of hospital admissions and deaths during recent months... We know that between 50% and maybe as high as 90% of infected people are asymptomatic... We know that around 12% of those who are admitted to ICU end up dying... We know that there has been about 300,000- 350,000 or so tests a day (rough average) over the last 4 months... And we know that there has been an average of about 20,000-25,000 a day positive test results during the last 4 months... We know what the numbers were for hospital admissions and deaths during the spring of 2020... And we know that testing was virtually non existent for the first 6 months of 2020... we know that for every tested confirmed case there will be a number of others who don't get tested and confirmed in the official figures... And we know that only a very small percentage of those infected actually get ill enough to require any hospital treatment...

There is plenty of data to go on to calculate some sensible estimates!!!

I have given what I think is a credible estimate of the overall likely total... And I have given the methodology/reasoning behind my calculations...

And I'm still waiting for someone to tell me why they think my calculations are so wrong... And to explain a more accurate way of working it out...!?

If you haven't got a better and more accurate way of doing this... Then you have no justification in trying to dismiss the calculations/methodology/reasoning that I have used...!

by Syl Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:52 am

Tommy Monk wrote:

Come on Syl... try using the power of your own brain and give it some independent thought... Instead of being led by the nose by the hysterical bullshit that is flying around in the media echo chamber...

You posted earlier that the UK total for confirmed cases is currently at 2,774,479...

Although in the last 4 months alone, we have reportedly had around 2,400,000 of these confirmed tested cases!!!

How can you claim that the confirmed positive tested figure is in any way an accurate account of actual number of cases here in UK?

I also said the figures vary, the ONS figures are higher.
Last week they reported that 88,000 thousand people in the UK had died of Covid19, a far higher figure than the number the government declared.
I don't think either figures released are 'bullshit'. It depends how up to date they are, and which deaths have been added and when, sometimes there seems to be a backlog in including care home deaths for eg.

I repeat....I wont make a guess at how many people in the UK have been infected already, you want to think it's 50%....you are guessing, and if that makes you happy who am I to argue? Wink

by Original Quill Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:48 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

Yes you did. Given the constraints, any estimate would be a wild guess. It's one and the same.

No... It's entirely possible to calculate some estimations based on the available data that we do know!

We know numbers of hospital admissions and deaths during recent months... We know that between 50% and maybe as high as 90% of infected people are asymptomatic... We know that around 12% of those who are admitted to ICU end up dying... We know that there has been about 300,000- 350,000 or so tests a day (rough average) over the last 4 months... And we know that there has been an average of about 20,000-25,000 a day positive test results during the last 4 months... We know what the numbers were for hospital admissions and deaths during the spring of 2020... And we know that testing was virtually non existent for the first 6 months of 2020... we know that for every tested confirmed case there will be a number of others who don't get tested and confirmed in the official figures... And we know that only a very small percentage of those infected actually get ill enough to require any hospital treatment...

There is plenty of data to go on to calculate some sensible estimates!!!

I have given what I think is a credible estimate of the overall likely total... And I have given the methodology/reasoning behind my calculations...

And I'm still waiting for someone to tell me why they think my calculations are so wrong... And to explain a more accurate way of working it out...!?

If you haven't got a better and more accurate way of doing this... Then you have no justification in trying to dismiss the calculations/methodology/reasoning that I have used...!

Sample surveys are notoriously unreliable...as you, yourself, point out when it comes to political polls: garbage in/garbage out. All you are doing is using the same binomial technique to project a larger number from a smaller data set. Your data sources lack reliability..."We know that between 50% and maybe as high as 90% of infected people are asymptomatic."

Fifty to ninety percent??? C'mon.

by Fred Moletrousers Thu Jan 07, 2021 6:19 pm

Hello all, and first may I wish you as happy a 2021 as is possible.

I was due to receive my first vaccination three weeks ago and was actually sitting in the surgery with my sleeve rolled up when the doc refused to go ahead because I once had what I have always assumed to have been an allergic reaction to palm pollen after a nasty bout of hay fever while on holiday in The Gambia, sitting happily under a palm tree drinking the odd pint or three of passably good beer.

It was absolutely manic in the surgery at the time and after being shown the door (in some distress, I can tell you) I appealed the decision on the grounds that I been given no opportunity of explaining that it was an isolated incident 25 years ago; has never been clinically diagnosed or repeated and that the temperature and humidity were off the scale...flora and climatic conditions that do not tend to occur very often in the northern hemisphere.

Today's phone call meant that my appeal had been successful and I happily received my "...just a little prick..." (to which I usually respond "how do you know?") but, under the circumstances, this time I kept my big mouth shut and gratefully received the bounty of the NHS.

Second jabs are now delayed beyond the original three week gap, but I can now at least look forward to getting one.

by Maddog Thu Jan 07, 2021 6:27 pm

Fred Moletrousers wrote:Hello all, and first may I wish you as happy a 2021 as is possible.

I was due to receive my first vaccination three weeks ago and was actually sitting in the surgery with my sleeve rolled up when the doc refused to go ahead because I once had what I have always assumed to have been an allergic reaction to palm pollen after a nasty bout of hay fever while on holiday in The Gambia, sitting happily under a palm tree drinking the odd pint or three of passably good beer.

It was absolutely manic in the surgery at the time and after being shown the door (in some distress, I can tell you) I appealed the decision on the grounds that I been given no opportunity of explaining that it was an isolated incident 25 years ago; has never been clinically diagnosed or repeated and that the temperature and humidity were off the scale...flora and climatic conditions that do not tend to occur very often in the northern hemisphere.

Today's phone call meant that my appeal had been successful and I happily received my "...just a little prick..." (to which I usually respond "how do you know?") but, under the circumstances, this time I kept my big mouth shut and gratefully received the bounty of the NHS.

Second jabs are now delayed beyond the original three week gap, but I can now at least look forward to getting one.

Good for you. I think here you would have got the shot the first time. It's just that doctors would have made you hang around a while in case they needed to treat you for speaking in tongues because of a divine reaction. Cool

by Fred Moletrousers Thu Jan 07, 2021 6:32 pm

Maddog wrote:
Fred Moletrousers wrote:Hello all, and first may I wish you as happy a 2021 as is possible.

I was due to receive my first vaccination three weeks ago and was actually sitting in the surgery with my sleeve rolled up when the doc refused to go ahead because I once had what I have always assumed to have been an allergic reaction to palm pollen after a nasty bout of hay fever while on holiday in The Gambia, sitting happily under a palm tree drinking the odd pint or three of passably good beer.

It was absolutely manic in the surgery at the time and after being shown the door (in some distress, I can tell you) I appealed the decision on the grounds that I been given no opportunity of explaining that it was an isolated incident 25 years ago; has never been clinically diagnosed or repeated and that the temperature and humidity were off the scale...flora and climatic conditions that do not tend to occur very often in the northern hemisphere.

Today's phone call meant that my appeal had been successful and I happily received my "...just a little prick..." (to which I usually respond "how do you know?") but, under the circumstances, this time I kept my big mouth shut and gratefully received the bounty of the NHS.

Second jabs are now delayed beyond the original three week gap, but I can now at least look forward to getting one.

Good for you. I think here you would have got the shot the first time. It's just that doctors would have made you hang around a while in case they needed to treat you for speaking in tongues because of a divine reaction.

To be fair to our superb medics, they have been instructed to be ultra cautious because of a few unexpected and adverse allergic reactions among some of the earliest people to be vaccinated.

by Syl Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:06 pm

Fred Moletrousers wrote:Hello all, and first may I wish you as happy a 2021 as is possible.

I was due to receive my first vaccination three weeks ago and was actually sitting in the surgery with my sleeve rolled up when the doc refused to go ahead because I once had what I have always assumed to have been an allergic reaction to palm pollen after a nasty bout of hay fever while on holiday in The Gambia, sitting happily under a palm tree drinking the odd pint or three of passably good beer.

It was absolutely manic in the surgery at the time and after being shown the door (in some distress, I can tell you) I appealed the decision on the grounds that I been given no opportunity of explaining that it was an isolated incident 25 years ago; has never been clinically diagnosed or repeated and that the temperature and humidity were off the scale...flora and climatic conditions that do not tend to occur very often in the northern hemisphere.

Today's phone call meant that my appeal had been successful and I happily received my "...just a little prick..." (to which I usually respond "how do you know?") but, under the circumstances, this time I kept my big mouth shut and gratefully received the bounty of the NHS.

Second jabs are now delayed beyond the original three week gap, but I can now at least look forward to getting one.

Happy New Year Fred. x
Good news you have had the first vaccine, sometimes age DOES have some good benefits. Laughing

In parts of Manchester some of the over 80's have already had their 2nd jab today, so it might not be long before you are fully protected.

by Tommy Monk Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:19 am

Original Quill wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:

No... It's entirely possible to calculate some estimations based on the available data that we do know!

We know numbers of hospital admissions and deaths during recent months... We know that between 50% and maybe as high as 90% of infected people are asymptomatic... We know that around 12% of those who are admitted to ICU end up dying... We know that there has been about 300,000- 350,000 or so tests a day (rough average) over the last 4 months... And we know that there has been an average of about 20,000-25,000 a day positive test results during the last 4 months... We know what the numbers were for hospital admissions and deaths during the spring of 2020... And we know that testing was virtually non existent for the first 6 months of 2020... we know that for every tested confirmed case there will be a number of others who don't get tested and confirmed in the official figures... And we know that only a very small percentage of those infected actually get ill enough to require any hospital treatment...

There is plenty of data to go on to calculate some sensible estimates!!!

I have given what I think is a credible estimate of the overall likely total... And I have given the methodology/reasoning behind my calculations...

And I'm still waiting for someone to tell me why they think my calculations are so wrong... And to explain a more accurate way of working it out...!?

If you haven't got a better and more accurate way of doing this... Then you have no justification in trying to dismiss the calculations/methodology/reasoning that I have used...!

Sample surveys are notoriously unreliable...as you, yourself, point out when it comes to political polls: garbage in/garbage out. All you are doing is using the same binomial technique to project a larger number from a smaller data set. Your data sources lack reliability..."We know that between 50% and maybe as high as 90% of infected people are asymptomatic."

Fifty to ninety percent??? C'mon.

You posted up the article claiming 50%... I posted up the Reuters article that showed it was 86% during lockdown.

We know lots of the data already... And as ice already pointed out, estimating is a perfectly good way of getting a close idea of a figure.

by Original Quill Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:28 am

Tommy Monk wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

Sample surveys are notoriously unreliable...as you, yourself, point out when it comes to political polls: garbage in/garbage out. All you are doing is using the same binomial technique to project a larger number from a smaller data set. Your data sources lack reliability..."We know that between 50% and maybe as high as 90% of infected people are asymptomatic."

Fifty to ninety percent??? C'mon.

You posted up the article claiming 50%... I posted up the Reuters article that showed it was 86% during lockdown.

We know lots of the data already... And as ice already pointed out, estimating is a perfectly good way of getting a close idea of a figure.

Regardless of who posted it, that's not a reliable spread on which to base a binomial comparison.

by Tommy Monk Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:19 am

An estimate can include a range of possibilities...

by Syl Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:55 am

Well if you argue your point long enough Tommy, considering there are 100's of 1000's new infections recorded every week now, you may eventually end up being right. Wink

by Original Quill Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:30 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:An estimate can include a range of possibilities...

Yes, but a binomial comparison presupposes some reasonable statistical similarity between the sample population and the total population. Tests of reliability (mean standard deviation) are built upon measurement of the fluctuation between the total population and the sample population...the larger the fluctuation (or deviation), the less valid the binomial comparison. The validity of your sample depends upon its similarity to the total population.

To start with such grand variances (regardless of where they come from) is to admit that your binomial comparison is meaningless at inception.

by Original Quill Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:33 pm

Syl wrote:Well if you argue your point long enough Tommy, considering there are 100's of 1000's new infections recorded every week now, you may eventually end up being right.

Even a broken clock is correct two times a day. Twisted Evil

by Tommy Monk Fri Jan 08, 2021 6:40 pm

I've asked all you posters to have a think about the facts and figures, as well as the other factors involved, and to come up with what you think is a reasonable estimation of the likely total number of UK cases to date, and to explain your methodology and reasoning behind your calculations...

If you really think the way I have done it is so wrong... Then put your money where your trousers are and show us all your better way of calculating this estimate, and explain/justify the figures/factors you use to come up with your estimated total...?

by eddie Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:52 pm

Andy wrote:Is Tommy REALLY that stupid, or is he trolling?

Do you have a point to make about the subject matter or are you trolling Tommy?
Fairs fair mate.

by Original Quill Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:38 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:I've asked all you posters to have a think about the facts and figures, as well as the other factors involved, and to come up with what you think is a reasonable estimation of the likely total number of UK cases to date, and to explain your methodology and reasoning behind your calculations...

If you really think the way I have done it is so wrong... Then put your money where your trousers are and show us all your better way of calculating this estimate, and explain/justify the figures/factors you use to come up with your estimated total...?

Well, we've gone about as far as we can go. And the answer is.......insufficient information. Wink

by Tommy Monk Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:05 am

Bullshit!!!

We have plenty of data to calculate an estimate!!!

The govt have been doing estimated calculations throughout with their predictions on the R number and current case numbers etc...

There is no difference with anyone else trying to calculate an ovwrall total case number estimate!!!

by Tommy Monk Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:46 am

According to official figures... There have been an average of around 60,000 cases a day in UK for the last few days... Which adds up to around 420,000 cases for the week... But they are also saying that during this period that 1 in 30 in London had it in the last week, which adds up to around 270,000... And 1 in 50 across England had it last week, which adds up to (excluding London population) another 850,000!!!

So... Given that the official figures simply don't add up... Are the govt "estimating" these numbers...???

And... If so... What methodology/reasoning are they basing these calculations on???

by Syl Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:25 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

According to official figures... There have been an average of around 60,000 cases a day in UK for the last few days... Which adds up to around 420,000 cases for the week... But they are also saying that during this period that 1 in 30 in London had it in the last week, which adds up to around 270,000... And 1 in 50 across England had it last week, which adds up to (excluding London population) another 850,000!!!

So... Given that the official figures simply don't add up... Are the govt "estimating" these numbers...???

And... If so... What methodology/reasoning are they basing these calculations on???

"An estimated 1.1 million people in private households in England had Covid-19 between December 27 and January 2, according to new figures which scientists have described as “frighteningly high”.

This is the equivalent of around 2.06% of the population, or one in 50 people, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said."

https://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk/news/national/one-in-50-people-had-covid-19-between-december-27-and-january-2-ons-10212/

by Tommy Monk Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:50 pm

Just a guesstimate...

by Syl Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:10 pm

Well I think, and hope others, would have more faith in a guestimate made by organisations made up from people who compile all their data based on scientific evidence, NHS figures, factual knowledge, official, research, etc ... rather than a guestimate from some random bloke on a forum.

No offence Tommy. Wink

by Tommy Monk Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:51 pm

So there were about 400,000 confirmed cases... And the govt say there was likely really about 3 times that number of actual cases...?

Which is not far off the number you get when using the calculation of hospital admissions X 100 that I said earlier (and I've heard experts say), for each hospital admission there is likely about another 100 cases in the wider public...

But me being just some bloke on a forum... It's obviously impossible for me to do basic maths...

Or is it some of the others here who are unable to do the maths...?

by Tommy Monk Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:05 pm

In fact, for the 7 days up until the 1st of January, there were...

Latest data provided on 1 January 2021
Daily
53,285
Last 7 days
319,912

So 320,000 cases... But the govt says there were likely over 1.1 million that week... So just for ease of calculations, let's say there were about 1.2million and this is 4 times the actual confirmed case numbers...

And if you say that there was an average of about 25,000 cases a day over last 4 months... Then multiply by 30 days in each month and then by 4 months...

Then that = 3 million cases... Then when you factor in the govt own amount of there likely being 4 times this number of cases out there in the wider population...

Then that is 12 million cases over the last 4 months alone!!!

Which is what I bloody well said earlier on this thread only for people to say I was talking shit!!!

So therefore... My estimate of there likely being around 30 million cases total over the time this virus has been going around here in UK to be not so far out at all when you think about it... Eh...!!!???

by Tommy Monk Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:12 pm

And don't forget the 320,000 number is for whole of UK and the 1.1 million figure is what the govt said for only England...

So the likely actual cases per confirmed case is likely to be a factor higher than a multiple of 4... probably more like a factor of 5...

Which would make it 15 million cases in the last 4 months alone!!!

You see... When you actually look at the numbers and do a few calculations... I'm pretty much bang on the money...!!!

by JulesV Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:28 pm

Approx 1/4 of us have probably had the bug now.

Let's hope the jabs stem the tide, it's literally a race against time, this new strain is vicious!

by eddie Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:32 am

I only know two people who have definitely had it - not just through hearsay but personally - and they both said it was like having the flu.
My best friend is one of them and she has just found out that the after effects for her was bringing on the menopause early. I’ve since looked into it and it appears there are many women who claim this.

Very odd.

by Syl Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:50 am

eddie wrote:I only know two people who have definitely had it - not just through hearsay but personally - and they both said it was like having the flu.
My best friend is one of them and she has just found out that the after effects for her was bringing on the menopause early. I’ve since looked into it and it appears there are many women who claim this.

Very odd.

There are some very scary medical conditions Dr's have reported after people have recovered.
The list of the "Long Covid" after effects seem to get bigger all the time.

by Ben Reilly Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:50 am

That Daily Mail article I checked out had a physician who was saying that it's mainly what they call "long Covid" that may bring on menopause. She was saying that serious illnesses in women can cause the hypothamalus to create fertility-suppressing hormones anyway, so the fact that Covid can do it shouldn't be too surprising.

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