Around half the UK population have now already had covid19

First topic message reminder :




It is said that for every case that requires hospital treatment, there are at least another 100 cases in the wider population.


Going by that figure, it is now likely to be around 30 million people here in UK who have already had covid19.


And having already had their immune systems successfully fight off this new virus... They don't need any vaccine.


We are not talking about smallpox here, or the plague or ebola etc... We are talking about a version of the common cold virus that for nearly 99.9% of people it causes either no symptoms or mild/moderate symptoms much like influenza causes.

Tommy Monk wrote:

Original Quill wrote:

I didn't say you are missing the data; I said you are misusing the data.  I explained that in the same post.

Read, tom...read carefully.



No, you are not.  I taught quantitative methods at Berkeley and Rutgers University.  You are making some of the most fundamental mistakes, suggesting you haven't even taken a basic course in the subject.

Don't patronise me... I did type 'misusing' but the predictive text on my phone changed it to 'missing' in my post...

And  you couldn't teach a bird to fly, a fish to swim, or a dog to lick it's own bollocks!

If you were trying to teach a bear to shit in the woods, it would end up dying of constipation!!!

Go away you idiot!

Which, all said and done, is your response: get away...I'm afraid! You know that you have accumulated all of the errors of a lower classman in a first-year methods class. I doubt you even qualified for university. You don't know what you are doing.

No... My response is...go away, you're a lying fukwit and you're boring!!!

Tommy Monk wrote:

Syl wrote:


"An estimated 1.1 million people in private households in England had Covid-19 between December 27 and January 2, according to new figures which scientists have described as “frighteningly high”.

This is the equivalent of around 2.06% of the population, or one in 50 people, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said."https://www.bing.com/search?q=graph+of+corona+virus+infections+uk&form=ANNTH1&refig=a6470ff0c37d4aabac8cf5444f618325&sp=-1&pq=graph+of+corona+virus+infections+uk&sc=1-35&qs=n&sk=&cvid=a6470ff0c37d4aabac8cf5444f618325





https://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk/news/national/one-in-50-people-had-covid-19-between-december-27-and-january-2-ons-10212/

Then you went on to say how much you trust these figures and the experts responsible for compiling all the data involved...


Quote Syl...

Well I think, and hope others, would have more faith in a guestimate made by organisations made up from people who compile all their data based on scientific evidence, NHS figures,  factual knowledge, official, research, etc ... rather than a guestimate from some random bloke on a forum.

No offence Tommy.  






No offence taken Syl... I'm happy that you provided that key piece of information for my calculations, and that you think it is so accurate because it is from such a reputable group of experts...!


Many thanks!

You are welcome Tommy, thank you for pinpointing the post.

If you look at the graph, you will see how high the infection rates shot up in that week and the 2 weeks that have followed.
More people were infected then, with this new variant, which is 70% more infectious than the original  strain, than at any other time since the pandemic started, and the official figures do reflect that.




https://www.bing.com/search?q=graph+of+corona+virus+infections+uk&form=ANNTH1&refig=a6470ff0c37d4aabac8cf5444f618325&sp=-1&pq=graph+of+corona+virus+infections+uk&sc=1-35&qs=n&sk=&cvid=a6470ff0c37d4aabac8cf5444f618325

Tommy Monk wrote:

No... My response is...go away, you're a lying fukwit and you're boring!!!

Indeed?  If I'm boring, how come you are always responding?  You were probably bored in your methods class, too. That's why you didn't learn anything.

Tested cases were areond 300,000 for that week and stayed around the 50,000 60,000 a day mark for beginning of January before coming down a bit over the last week...


Jan 14, 2021 48,682
Jan 13, 2021 47,525
Jan 12, 2021 45,533
Jan 11, 2021 46,169
Jan 10, 2021 54,940
Jan 9, 2021 59,937
Jan 8, 2021 68,053
Jan 7, 2021 52,618
Jan 6, 2021 62,322
Jan 5, 2021 60,916
Jan 4, 2021 58,784
Jan 3, 2021 54,990
Jan 2, 2021 57,725



But like your article said... There is likely about 5 times as many cases in the wider population than is shown in the tested confirmed numbers.

The official (ie trusted) figures as of today are

Confirmed
3,357,361
+97,103 = 3,454,464.

Now even if the likely  number of unconfirmed cases was 5 times higher...and that is purely a guess, how on earth can that  bring the total number of people who have been infected up to 33million???

Granted the numbers of infections and deaths are rising alarmingly,  but your figures are way out, and considering you started this thread over 2 weeks ago, that makes your calculations even more ridiculous.

The 5 times ratio is only valid for the last few months since there has been mass testing of between 350,000-450,000 tests a day being carried out...


At the beginning of the year 2020, there were no tests, then only a few thousand, and it took until end of April until 100,000 tests a day were being done...


So... You need to focus on the time frame from say 1st September 2020 until the 1st January 2021... Count total tested cases, use the X5 ratio for that period, factor that in with the number of hospital admissions during that time... Then you have a pretty good idea how many actual cases in the wider population equates to how many hospital admissions... Then you just count the total number of hosp admissions for the rest of the year and using the hosp admissions/actual cases ratio you have just established for the period from 1/9/2020 to 1/1/2021, you can calculate the likely actual case total for the rest of the year...


Add the two together and you end up with a likely case total for the whole year!


It's basic maths really!

Or as I said 10 years ago (or it seems so)  just listen to the experts, much less chance of giving one a headache.

Basically... The confirmed tested cases figures get less reliable the further you look back to the beginning of 2020...


Simply because the tests weren't being done at anywhere near the rate as they have been over the last 4 months...


There were no tests being done in January.... Then only a few hundred, then a few thousand by end February/March... And it took until the end of April until 100,000 a day were being done...


That was the time when the first wave happened... and hospitals were overwhelmed... So of course actual case numbers were comparable to the last few months, although confirmed tested case figures only show a fraction of what has been shown for the last few months.

I’m having to self-isolate (yet again) because one of my bosses has got the Coronavirus. Apparently, I was spotted on CCTV standing too close to him - even though we wear masks at work it was whilst we were on our break and neither of us had masks on - and now I have to self-isolate.

He’s my favourite boss, we get on really well. He’s been so helpful with advice on mine and Ben’s visa as he went through the same thing with his wife. He’s really unwell, I spoke to him on messenger. I really hope he will be okay.

I wish him a speedy recovery... and I hope you, Ben and family don't get a serious bout of it too!


At least your boss has the energy to chat on messenger, cos when my brother had it he didn't talk to anyone or even reply to texts cos he was so wiped out by it... He said that just getting up to go to the toilet was a real struggle and he was out of breath when he had got there, from getting up off the sofa and walking the several steps to the bathroom...!

Tommy Monk wrote:

I wish him a speedy recovery... and I hope you, Ben and family don't get a serious bout of it too!


At least your boss has the energy to chat on messenger, cos when my brother had it he didn't talk to anyone or even reply to texts cos he was so wiped out by it... He said that just getting up to go to the toilet was a real struggle and he was out of breath when he had got there, from getting up off the sofa and walking the several steps to the bathroom...!

Thanks Tommy. The last time i spoke to him, he said “It’s getting worse and worse. It’s such a bad feeling”

He’s a lovely man. A great boss, calm and funny.
He’s also a Muslim and a very devoted husband and father.

Tommy Monk wrote:

I wish him a speedy recovery... and I hope you, Ben and family don't get a serious bout of it too!


At least your boss has the energy to chat on messenger, cos when my brother had it he didn't talk to anyone or even reply to texts cos he was so wiped out by it... He said that just getting up to go to the toilet was a real struggle and he was out of breath when he had got there, from getting up off the sofa and walking the several steps to the bathroom...!

Very nice of you to say, and he's a lovely guy -- I hate to think of him suffering.

A neighbor of mine and eddie's recently had her whole family get Covid. She's in her 40s and although she's recovered, she still has recurring brain fog and even said that she's afraid to drive because she (horrifyingly, to me) can't always will her eyes to look at something she wants to look at!

There's also a growing body of evidence suggesting that women in that age group who get the "long Covid" variety of the illness are finding themselves suddenly becoming menopausal -- medical experts still don't fully understand it, but it seems that any number of serious illness can cause women's bodies to shut down the reproductive system, which would actually be a remarkable evolutionary adaptation if true.

I do feel for anybody who gets this illness -- it's debilitating and weird, and puts everyone in the position of having to hope they've won some sort of genetic/age-related lottery to determine how much they'll suffer and even whether they'll survive. It's a disease that can quickly finish off a super-healthy 30-something, yet a 106-year-old can get twice and survive both times.

Some of you will  remember Live Aid back in July 1985.

There were just over 80,500 people there on the day.

Yesterday in England, the over-all death toll from Covid-19 was recorded at 80,868 people.

Look at the picture again......!!

This is the first time you can visually equate a death toll to a photo of an exact same amount of people.

eddie wrote:I’m having to self-isolate (yet again) because one of my bosses has got the Coronavirus. Apparently, I was spotted on CCTV standing too close to him - even though we wear masks at work it was whilst we were on our break and neither of us had masks on - and now I have to self-isolate.

He’s my favourite boss, we get on really well. He’s been so helpful with advice on mine and Ben’s visa as he went through the same thing with his wife. He’s really unwell, I spoke to him on messenger. I really hope he will be okay.

Hopefully your boss will recover quickly without lasting effects.

Even though this bloody plague has been in the news for almost a year, we see and hear all the facts and figures of infections and death rates, but it's only when we know someone who is really suffering that we equate the numbers to actual people, their suffering, the devastation the families feel being unable to help.

I know of several people who have had it and recovered, and two who have died from it, both with underlying medical conditions, both males one in their 40's on in their 50's. God willing I wont know anyone else.

Yes but Eddie... put it into context... 80% were over 75 and/or with other quite serious health conditions... And a million people worldwide die every year from a regular flu season... There was a bad flu year in 1968 that killed double the % of the world's population than have died from this virus so far... And 100 years ago there was a really bad flu year that estimated to have infected a third of the worlds population and killed 10% of those infected by it.

Stop putting your own spin on what's reported.

Many have underlying health conditions not quite serious health conditions.

Millions of people live with 'underlying health conditions' for decades, if they catch Covid and it kills them, that is what they have died of.

It's also now being reported that 1 in 5 people in hospital suffering with Covid19 are under 55.

And I am sick of saying that in an average year flu kills around 17,000 people in the UK, no comparison with Covid19.

Many more have underlying health conditions and have caught covid19 and not been killed by it... Most have either no symptoms or mild moderate symptoms like cold or flu.


And flu kills a million people worldwide every year... A bad flu year kills millions more...

Tommy...

Tommy Monk wrote:Many more have underlying health conditions and have caught covid19 and not been killed by it...

...same argument used about wars.

Syl wrote:Tommy...

Just re-stating the facts... When others are misrepresenting them...

Heard that professor Ballance on TV today saying again that the infection number is currently 1 in 50 and even higher in some places... That again places the number of actual current cases is we over a million, probably 1.5 million or so... While actual confirmed tested cases is less than 300,000...


Again confirming the ratio of 1 confirmed tested case = at least 5 actual cases in the wider public...



Need to just vaccinate/shield the older and more vulnerable because of health issues, and just open up everything else back to normal and let the virus run and fizzle out on its own...

A record number of 1,820 deaths in the UK in the last 24 hours.

Yes, and they would have caught the virus at least 2 weeks ago...


And how many of them already had serious health conditions that were predominant cause of their deaths?

And have you ever asked yourself, if almost 100,000  people have already died here without the country practicing herd immunity, how many more would have died if that had been brought into play?

An update:

After my boss went down with it there were four or five others who followed several others have had to self-isolate due to the fact they were in close contact with those people. I’m due to go back to work on Monday after my 10 day isolation and we are very short-staffed.

I think we should close the restaurant for 10 days and do a deep clean. Unfortunately this isn’t happening.

The spread of this virus has been unprecedented.

The death toll is now over 100,000.

On January 2nd 75,000 people had died of Covid19 in the UK, in just over 3 weeks 25% more have died, and many more deaths are predicted.

A huge proportion of those shown in the figures are people who died mostly from their of age and/or their pre existing serious health conditions... But are listed as covid deaths just because they also recently tested positive for covid too...


More people die during a bad flu year...

A Tory MP has refused to apologise for "out of order" comments in which he encouraged anti-lockdown campaigners to "persist" with their protests.

Senior Tory Desmond Swayne, who previously served as a aide to former PM David Cameron, told anti-lockdown group Save our Rights UK that NHS figures were being "manipulated" and intensive care units were actually running at normal capacity.

In a recording of a November interview with the campaign group, obtained by Sky News, Sir Desmond said coronavirus seems to pose a "manageable risk, particularly as figures have been manipulated" and figures were "bouncing round at the typical level of deaths for the time of year”.

At the time of the recording there were at least 6,817 more deaths in England and Wales than the average for the previous five years, and 18% of all deaths were coronavirus related, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Sir Desmond added: "We're told there is a deathly, deadly pandemic proceeding at the moment.

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"That is difficult to reconcile with ICUs (intensive care units) actually operating at typical occupation levels for the time of year and us bouncing round at the typical level of deaths for the time of year."

He goes on to tell the anti-lockdown group: "As the last (House of Commons) Speaker used to say, (John) Bercow, he'd say 'Persist! Persist!' That's my advice - persist.

"And I'll persist too."

Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said the MP was "out of order" for making the "unacceptable" comments and urged him to issue a full retraction and apology.

The New Forest West MP told ITV News it is "monstrous" to suggest he was encouraging people to break the law or refuse a vaccine.

Asked if he would apologise, he said: "I need to be clear about what I'm being asked to apologise for because I suspect that what [Michael Gove is] referring to is the Sky News headline 'senior Tory tells anti-vaxxers to carry on' - they're indicating my support for anti-vaxxers.

"This is a monstrous distortion. I am evangelical in my support for vaccination."

He said if he were to have the whip removed for his comments, it would be "punishment for thought crime".

He told the PA news agency: "I have always had a great deal of respect for Michael but I'm not sure precisely what I'm being asked to apologise for.

"I'm evangelical in my support for the vaccination programme.

"As for my complaints for masking and the use of data, I'm on the record, I've said all of those things in the House of Commons.

He said he was telling the campaigners to "persist" in the campaign against restrictions, but insisted they should stick to the rules.

Sir Desmond says he is a "most enthusiastic vaccinator" but has been a frequent critic of the government's lockdown measures.

In a separate incident, Sir Desmond this month told US anti-vaxxer Del Bigtree that the UK has become "a police state" and accused the Government of attempting to implement "social control" through actions such as the mandatory wearing of face masks, Sky News said.


https://www.itv.com/news/2021-01-28/tory-mp-desmond-swayne-refuses-to-apologise-for-unacceptable-comments-telling-anti-lockdown-protesters-to-persist






"...Before going into politics, he was a teacher, and then a manager at the Royal Bank of Scotland. He was Parliamentary Private Secretary to David Cameron, both during his time as Leader of the Opposition, 2005–10, and then for two years while Cameron was Prime Minister. In September 2012 he was appointed as Lord Commissioner of HM Treasury..."

Wikipedia



So I would have thought he understands facts and figures.

Serves this twat right.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9196591/Covid-UK-Covid-denying-conspiracy-theorist-46-dies-coronavirus-refusing-wear-mask.html

His dying, last words were "I shouldn't have believed what Tommy Monk wrote"!

So Tommy how many people have to die before you consider this virus to be a problem?
How many need to take up hospital beds because of covid and cause other patients to have to wait to be treated with other problems before you see it as a problem.
How many people having symptoms bad enough to stay off work for a while and therefore not having enough staff to operate trains, taxis, shops and offices, law enforcement and emergency services does it take for you to see it as a problem while waiting for herd immunity?

There is a virus going about... For the overwhelming vast majority it causes no symptoms at all... And for the overwhelming vast majority of the rest of the people it causes nothing more than mild/moderate cold/flu type symptoms...


Out of the rest who do get quite ill from it, again the vast majority of those recover quite well...


80% of so called "covid deaths" so far, have been over 75s and/or with other serious health conditions... Already knocking on heaven's door... And although listed on the covid death tally, this was only because they had recently tested positive for it, and not necessarily the primary cause of their deaths...


So the figures are being skewed from that point... and I've also already shown how it is likely that at least half the UK population (probably more) have already had it too!


But none of this is being truthfully told to the public!!!


So I agree with what the MP was saying in the post I made earlier!


I'm not saying it's not a problem... What I'm saying is that it is being made out to be a much bigger problem than what it actually is... And the actions taken by govt are not only perpetuating the issue over a much longer term than is otherwise necessary as well as effectively incubating the virus giving it time to mutate into something possibly more harmful, but also creating considerable harm for all of us, both now, as well as for the near/long term future!

Tommy Monk wrote:80% of so called "covid deaths" so far, have been over 75s and/or with other serious health conditions... Already knocking on heaven's door...

This is the flaw in this reasoning. The 80% were not dead yet, but with Covid they became dead. You want to duck the fact that the virus caused the death, but you are willing to admit that it was the straw-that-broke-the-camel’s-back. If so, it caused the death.

Tommy Monk wrote:And although listed on the covid death tally, this was only because they had recently tested positive for it, and not necessarily the primary cause of their deaths...

It is certainly the final cause.

That would happen with the flu as well, (not to mention a whole host of other things)so should we not bother with a vaccine for that?
Certificates don't always have covid as the cause of death, its quite often a contributory factor maybe 2nd or 3rd.
Sometimes a cause of death is given that isn't covid but it says death took place in a covid atmosphere.

Original Quill wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:80% of so called "covid deaths" so far, have been over 75s and/or with other serious health conditions... Already knocking on heaven's door...

This is the flaw in this reasoning. The 80% were not dead yet, but with Covid they became dead. You want to duck the fact that the virus caused the death, but you are willing to admit that it was the straw-that-broke-the-camel’s-back. If so, it caused the death.

Tommy Monk wrote:And although listed on the covid death tally, this was only because they had recently tested positive for it, and not necessarily the primary cause of their deaths...

It is certainly the final cause.

No... They died for a variety of reasons... Simply testing positive for covid before dying doesn't mean covid was the cause of their deaths...

Vintage wrote:That would happen with the flu as well, (not to mention a whole host of other things)so should we not bother with a vaccine for that?
Certificates don't always have covid as the cause of death, its quite often a contributory factor maybe 2nd or 3rd.
Sometimes a cause of death is given that isn't covid but it says death took place in a covid atmosphere.

Still listed in the covid death rate tally...


Flu vaccine only protects for a couple of strains each year when there are dozens of others... And even then is not 100% effective for the couple of strains it is supposed to protect for...

Currently doing over 800,000 tests a day with number of confirmed cases stands at 12,000 a day...


And most vulnerable groups have had at least one vaccination.


And at least half the UK population have already had the virus and 99.9% have had mostly no symptoms at all or very mild to moderate cold/flu symptoms.


Time to end the lockdown restrictions now!!!

I imagine in England the lockdown restrictions will be brought in gradually, starting with reopening schools on (suggested) March 8th.

My guess is that will be followed by more shops being allowed to reopen, outside eating in cafes/retaurants, and family visitations being relaxed a bit.

Brilliant news that care home residents will be able to have a designated family/friend visitor and even be allowed to hold hands, so important.

https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/20/care-home-residents-allowed-to-hold-hands-with-indoor-visitor-14115482/

Tommy Monk wrote:

Original Quill wrote:

This is the flaw in this reasoning.  The 80% were not dead yet, but with Covid they became dead.  You want to duck the fact that the virus caused the death, but you are willing to admit that it was the straw-that-broke-the-camel’s-back.  If so, it caused the death.



It is certainly the final cause.

No... They died for a variety of reasons... Simply testing positive for covid before dying doesn't mean covid was the cause of their deaths...

Sorry, but it does.  If the deceased had the symptoms, and expired because of the symptoms, that is the very definition of cause-of-death, regardless of other complications.

The legal analysis for causation is the but for test: if you can say, but for x, then y would not have happened, you have determined the cause.  If Covid fits in that equation as x, you have your cause-of-death.

I hate this attitude that the majority of people who died were old with underlying illness, so they had Covid when they died, but that didn't really kill them ... and anyway, they would have died soon anyway.

Millions of people are old, millions have underlying illnesses, and guess what....they live on for years.

Like anything, it's a moral theory...blame the victim: "Your cause-of-death is your own doing, by being too old!"

"Oh...you can't help it if you're old?"

"Well...you can't help it if your black (or Asian or Hispanic, or whatever) too, and we'll still blame you."

Fits neatly in the same mold.

Eddie and I have had this conversation before -- when people die, it's hardly ever one thing. One thing goes and if the rest of the body's systems aren't strong enough to support it, a chain of catastrophes leads to death.

For people who had an underlying condition, then got Covid and then died, it's obvious that if they hadn't gotten Covid and everything else remained the same, they probably wouldn't have died. So there's nothing wrong with saying Covid killed them.

my family get tested every week for covid as part of the ONS study and we have not had it,in fact i know nobody personally that has

Korben wrote:my family get tested every week for covid as part of the ONS study and we have not had it,in fact i know nobody personally that has  

My favourite bus driver just died from it.
It sounds silly but I was really upset when I heard. I saw him every day on my rides to and from work. He was Romanian and we used to chat in Romanian (I’m learning it from colleagues at work) and he was always amused that this English woman could converse with him. He was a lovely man.

eddie wrote:

Korben wrote:my family get tested every week for covid as part of the ONS study and we have not had it,in fact i know nobody personally that has  

My favourite bus driver just died from it.
It sounds silly but I was really upset when I heard. I saw him every day on my rides to and from work. He was Romanian and we used to chat in Romanian (I’m learning it from colleagues at work) and he was always amused that this English woman could converse with him. He was a lovely man.

Of course it's not silly it shows you have compassion....Never apologise for that Eddie, there is not enough of the these days

Ben Reilly wrote:Eddie and I have had this conversation before -- when people die, it's hardly ever one thing. One thing goes and if the rest of the body's systems aren't strong enough to support it, a chain of catastrophes leads to death.

For people who had an underlying condition, then got Covid and then died, it's obvious that if they hadn't gotten Covid and everything else remained the same, they probably wouldn't have died. So there's nothing wrong with saying Covid killed them.

Covid itself doesn't kill you. It initiates inflammation via the body's immune system. That goes into overkill, and that's what kills you. The body's immune response to the virus, not the virus itself. This is why it kills some and not others.

Syl wrote:I hate this attitude that the majority of people who died were old with underlying illness, so they had Covid when they died, but that didn't really kill them ... and anyway, they would have died soon anyway.

Millions of people are old, millions have underlying illnesses, and guess what....they live on for years.

Covid isn't killing them. Their own immune response is what's killing them.

[quote="Tommy Monk"]

Vintage wrote:That would happen with the flu as well, (not to mention a whole host of other things)so should we not bother with a vaccine for that?
Certificates don't always have covid as the cause of death, its quite often a contributory factor maybe 2nd or 3rd.
Sometimes a cause of death is given that isn't covid but it says death took place in a covid atmosphere.

Still listed in the covid death rate tally...
no its not.

Korben wrote:

eddie wrote:

Korben wrote:my family get tested every week for covid as part of the ONS study and we have not had it,in fact i know nobody personally that has  

My favourite bus driver just died from it.
It sounds silly but I was really upset when I heard. I saw him every day on my rides to and from work. He was Romanian and we used to chat in Romanian (I’m learning it from colleagues at work) and he was always amused that this English woman could converse with him. He was a lovely man.

Of course it's not silly it shows you have compassion....Never apologise for that Eddie, there is not enough of the these days

Oh I feel things deeply, I just don’t always like showing it. It’s not a thing I like about myself tbh.