Around half the UK population have now already had covid19

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It is said that for every case that requires hospital treatment, there are at least another 100 cases in the wider population.


Going by that figure, it is now likely to be around 30 million people here in UK who have already had covid19.


And having already had their immune systems successfully fight off this new virus... They don't need any vaccine.


We are not talking about smallpox here, or the plague or ebola etc... We are talking about a version of the common cold virus that for nearly 99.9% of people it causes either no symptoms or mild/moderate symptoms much like influenza causes.

JulesV wrote:Approx 1/4 of us have probably had the bug now.

Let's hope the jabs stem the tide, it's literally a race against time, this new strain is vicious!

Using the official figures, I have shown that there has been between 12 - 15 million actual cases in just the last 4 months alone!


So it is easily possible that there has been 30 million cases by now across the UK since the virus has been going around here.

I love the way people totally ignore the ACTUAL official figures, make their own calculations made up from dubious sources....then grandly announce what the figure is as if they actually know.

I used the figures in the article that you posted up to get the multiplying factor between what the confirmed tested cases are and the likely actual number of cases... They were the official/scientific/govt figures!!!


And I used the average number of confirmed tested cases over the last 4 months to use as a figure to then calculate by the multiplying factor to show total likely actual cases for the last 4 months.


The figure is between 12 million and 15 million for the last 4 months.


And then when you compare the number of hospital admissions against that of the earlier period, it is highly likely that there was probably at least just as many again over the rest of the year or so since the virus has been going around in UK...

Alternatively you can see what the official figures are, it's far less time consuming.

Number of cases by confirmed tests is a fraction of what the true number of cases has been.

Tommy Monk wrote:Number of cases by confirmed tests is a fraction of what the true number of cases has been.

Yes, testing has always been opposed by Tory/Republican governments because it makes them look bad. As a result, we cannot get a grip on the problem.

No... Testing just simply wasn't available initially... Then took months to bring capacity up to 100,000 a day... It wasn't until beginning of September until 100s of 1000s were being done daily.

Tommy Monk wrote:No... Testing just simply wasn't available initially... Then took months to bring capacity up to 100,000 a day... It wasn't until beginning of September until 100s of 1000s were being done daily.

Because they weren't prepared. Trump had dismantled the pandemic preparedness team, which had worldwide scope.

Stop diverting every thread into a rant about tTrump/republicans.

Tommy Monk wrote:Stop diverting every thread into a rant about tTrump/republicans.

If the nickers fit, wear 'em.  There was a worldwide dumbing-down of science, and in particular, pandemic research, before this monster was set loose.  It was either intentional or it was an unintended consequence of the RW love of austerity and being unprepared.

My bet, it was Putin working through his puppets.  You can stick your head up your ass if you want, tom...but I'm turning over every stone, lookin' at all possibilities.

You are a 1 dimensional cretin who can't help trying to divert every thread in exactly the same monotonous way... And it is beyond being tedious now...

A record 1,564 more Corona deaths in the UK over the last 24 hours Tommy, some cold this is turning out to be.

Tommy Monk wrote:You are a 1 dimensional cretin who can't help trying to divert every thread in exactly the same monotonous way... And it is beyond being tedious now...

This is not about me, toms. I know the truth hurts, but it's the truth: 381,000 in the US killed by covid as of today's date.

You can run, but you can't hide.

I don't like to make this personal, but Tommy's attitude, his denial that this virus is more deadly than anything any of us have seen in our lifetimes, his refusal to wear a mask in public places,   his apparent flouting of the rules is really beginning to grate.  
Add to that his insistence on a public forum where gullible/stupid people may read and be influenced , that Covid-19 is  little more than a cold, less deadly than an annual flu, and he won't be having the vaccination when it's offered, I think him and people like him, only add to the misery and deaths that are now spiralling totally out of control.

He is entitled to his opinions, but so often repeating his own misguided thoughts and pretending they are facts.....borders on arrogant stupidity.

I don't like to be personal either, but if tom is true to his word...he's a walking Typhoid Mary. That's not about the issue, that's on him.

Put simply, by his own admission, Tommy is breaking the law and committing criminal offences.
If he proudly declared he had raped a woman or mugged a pensioner, would the admin here be so lenient towards him?
Differences in levels of criminality, granted, but the forum is still harbouring a self declared criminal.

Ok Syl... I see you've given up on misquoting me and misrepresenting things I've said for the purposes of your straw man arguments now... And you've resorted to outright lies instead!


For someone who thinks they're winning an argument... You are surely showing all the classic signs that you are losing it...!


Keep up the good work!





And to quill and the idiot Andy... Do fuck off!!!


I'm one of the people who has had no choice but to have to carry on going to work throughout all this, so sanctimonious pricks like you can hide away comfortably at home getting govt funded handouts for doing fuck all!!!

Tommy Monk wrote:Ok Syl... I see you've given up on misquoting me and misrepresenting things I've said for the purposes of your straw man arguments now... And you've resorted to outright lies instead!

For someone who thinks they're winning an argument... You are surely showing all the classic signs that you are losing it...!

Keep up the good work!



And to quill and the idiot Andy... Do fuck off!!!

I'm one of the people who has had no choice but to have to carry on going to work throughout all this, so sanctimonious pricks like you can hide away comfortably at home getting govt funded handouts for doing fuck all!!!

If you are an essential employee, all the more reason why you should be vaccinated. Walking about like Typhoid Mary is not the 'imperative' that society needs.

I already had covid19 back in the beginning of Feb 2020...


And I won't be getting offered any vaccine here in the UK for at least a few months yet...


So don't talk to me about fukkin "typhoid Mary" bullshit .. I've got to go to work for a living otherwise I'm hungry and out in the cold living on the streets!!!


I'm not deemed to be important enough to be getting paid to sit around indoors doing fuck all!!!

Tommy Monk wrote:
Ok Syl... I see you've given up on misquoting me and misrepresenting things I've said for the purposes of your straw man arguments now... And you've resorted to outright lies instead!


For someone who thinks they're winning an argument... You are surely showing all the classic signs that you are losing it...!


Keep up the good work!





And to quill and the idiot Andy... Do fuck off!!!


I'm one of the people who has had no choice but to have to carry on going to work throughout all this, so sanctimonious pricks like you can hide away comfortably at home getting govt funded handouts for doing fuck all!!!

I haven't misquoted you or lied at alI.
 Your own posts over the last few weeks have said everything I have accused you of saying.
Take this classic you actually started the thread with......

"We are not talking about smallpox here, or the plague or ebola etc... We are talking about a version of the common cold virus that for nearly 99.9% of people it causes either no symptoms or mild/moderate symptoms much like influenza causes."

Yeah...?


So why are you lying about me "refusing to wear a mask in public places and flouting rules"...?


And I stand by my op statement as being factually correct but you are obviously too stupid to understand the points being made...


Looks like I've got to spell it out for you... Look up the symptoms and mortality rates for smallpox, ebola and plague... Look up what the two main types of virus are that cause the common cold and think about what type of virus this covid19 is... Think about what the symptoms are for covid19 and compare that to what the symptoms are for colds and flu... Think about what the worsening medical conditions are from colds and flu that become so severe that lead to death, and then think about what the severe complications can be from covid19 that can cause death... Then realise why I said covid19 is not in any way like smallpox, ebola or plague, but instead much more comparable to colds/flu...


A bad flu year, 1918, killed 50 million and infected 500 million (which was nearly a third of the global population at that time)... Another bad flu year was 1968 which killed well over a million people out of a global population of 3.7 billion...

Tommy Monk wrote:Yeah...?


So why are you lying about me "refusing to wear a mask in public places and flouting rules"...?


And I stand by my op statement as being factually correct but you are obviously too stupid to understand the points being made...


Looks like I've got to spell it out for you... Look up the symptoms and mortality rates for smallpox, ebola and plague... Look up what the two main types of virus are that cause the common cold and think about what type of virus this covid19 is... Think about what the symptoms are for covid19 and compare that to what the symptoms are for colds and flu... Think about what the worsening medical conditions are from colds and flu that become so severe that lead to death, and then think about what the severe complications can be from covid19 that can cause death... Then realise why I said covid19 is not in any way like smallpox, ebola or plague, but instead much more comparable to colds/flu...


A bad flu year, 1918, killed 50 million and infected 500 million (which was nearly a third of the global population at that time)... Another bad flu year was 1968 which killed well over a million people out of a global population of 3.7 billion...

Did you not say when i asked a few weeks ago that you didn't wear a mask when out?

For months you have claimed you are now immune from the virus because you have already had it, even though you were never tested. 
Even if you have already been infected there is no scientific info that says you are now immune.

No one compared Covid to other diseases but you. 
You first mentioned smallpox ect, you are the one who  continuously plays down the seriousness of this virus that has so far killed 
over 80,000 in the UK and getting on for 2 million globally.

Facts are...

Smallpox....completely eradicated for decades....thanks to vaccination.

Plague...very few people get seriously ill nowadays thanks to modern antibiotics.

Ebola....A fraction of people died globally compared to Covid19. There were NO deaths in the UK from ebola.

Average death rate a year from flu in UK is 17,000. Picking out just two extreme  years, one  over 100 years ago when Spanish flu hit, when antibiotics and modern medicines were not in existance and living conditions were very different, hardly helps your argument.

If I get on public transport then I wear a mask... If I go into a supermarket then I wear a mask...


And you said I was flouting rules... What rules am I flouting?


And I don't know what points you think you are making about smallpox, ebola and plague... You're not telling me anything that I do not know .. and you are still completely missing the point of what I posted in the op...


And antibiotics don't do anything against the flu... It's a virus, not a bacterial infection...


I'll try again to spell it out for you...


Look up the symptoms and mortality rates for smallpox, ebola and plague... Look up what the two main types of virus are that cause the common cold and think about what type of virus this covid19 is... Think about what the symptoms are for covid19 and compare that to what the symptoms are for colds and flu... Think about what the worsening medical conditions are from colds and flu that become so severe that lead to death, and then think about what the severe complications can be from covid19 that can cause death... Then realise why I said covid19 is not in any way like smallpox, ebola or plague, but instead much more comparable to colds/flu...


Covid19 has no symptoms for most people, up to 86% of those tested during lockdown were asymptomatic... For the 99.9% of the rest it has either very mild symptoms or moderate symptoms exactly like those you would get with a cold or flu... It can cause severe infections in a tiny percentage of people, and lead to death... And it develops into exactly the same severe complications that occur with severe complications with colds and flus, and leads to death through exactly the same way...

Tommy, I am not trawling through weeks and weeks of posts, but I'm sure you said you don't wear a mask in public places.
That would be flouting the rules, which is why I said that.

It was you who brought unrelated diseases into the equation, and the way you did it, sounded like you were implying Covid19 was nothing in comparison, why else mention other diseases? Once more, you said.....

""We are not talking about smallpox here, or the plague or ebola etc... We are talking about a version of the common cold virus that for nearly 99.9% of people it causes either no symptoms or mild/moderate symptoms much like influenza causes."

Stop diminishing the seriousness of an incredibly deadly virus that has brought worldwide devastation, so far has killed almost 2 million globally, brought our NHS to its knees, killed over 80,000 in the UK, and left hundreds of thousands more with lasting health ill effects....all this and according to the experts, we have not yet reached the peak.

Oh for fuks sake!


How many times do I have to explain before you understand...!?


If it was a pandemic of smallpox or ebola or plague then I think the panic and lockdowns and restrictions would be totally justified... Just look at the devestating symptoms and mortality rates for each of those viruses...


But it's not... It's a virus from the same family of that which is responsible for half the common colds out there... And the symptoms are absolutely none at all for up to 86% of those infected... And no worse than a cold or flu for 99.9% of the rest of those infected... Millions more people worldwide are killed in a bad flu year... and in every regular flu year, which happens most years, there can be as many as a million deaths a year worldwide!!!


So stop being caught up in the hysterical hyperbole and look at things rationally...


My statement is 100% factually correct and I stand by it.

Tommy Monk wrote:


Oh for fuks sake!


How many times do I have to explain before you understand...!?


If it was a pandemic of smallpox or ebola or plague then I think the panic and lockdowns and restrictions would be totally justified... Just look at the devestating symptoms and mortality rates for each of those viruses...


But it's not... It's a virus from the same family of that which is responsible for half the common colds out there... And the symptoms are absolutely none at all for up to 86% of those infected... And no worse than a cold or flu for 99.9% of the rest of those infected... Millions more people worldwide are killed in a bad flu year... and in every regular flu year, which happens most years, there can be as many as a million deaths a year worldwide!!!


So stop being caught up in the hysterical hyperbole and look at things rationally...


My statement is 100% factually correct and I stand by it.

Well if you think the majority of scientists and experts who have studied the virus since early last year, the WHO, Public Health England, the NHS, Government ministers, are all caught up in the hysterical hyperbole and not issuing the correct facts and figures, the facts and figures that only YOU know.....you are a bigger fool than first thought.

Sod off Tommy, carry on believing what you believe, just make sure you wear your mask, social distance, and do as you are told by people with a damn site more knowledge than you.

Oh do stop talking shit Syl... Not all scientists are agreed on any of this...


All I'm doing is pointing out the facts!!!


All of what I've said on this thread can be easily checked and verified... I've even used the figures that you posted up that were quoting the official govt scientists figures on actual case numbers and their ratio for what is believed to be the real infection numbers, to do my calculations here...


And if you can't believe the facts and the evidence when it is laid out in simple terms before you... Then you are Syllier than I ever thought...


If you can't point out any bits I've said that are wrong, and reasons why... Then you have no basis for claiming that I'm wrong about any of it, have you...!?

You have been wrong from the start.
Your facts and figures are way out. You twisted the figures I quoted a couple of weeks ago and manipulated them to suit your weird logic.

Take infection rates for eg. I have said that the ONS figures and government figures dont always tally because some deaths and infections haven't always been added at the same rate.
Your claim almost 2 weeks ago that half the population had already been infected is just a fragment of your imagination working overtime.

Official figures as from today are....

United Kingdom cases
Updated 14 Jan at 16:17 local
Confirmed
3,211,576
+47,525

Now out of a population of 68 million, 3 plus million does not equate to half, no matter which method of calculation you are using.
There will obviously be people who are not sure whether they have had it, not shown any symptoms, and not been counted in the official figures.
You nor anyone else have NO IDEA how many people are in this group.

You are going round in circles now which means I am also repeating myself, so, you believe your warped facts and figures, and I will continue to believe the experts.

Do you really think that this total number of UK cases that is shown in those figures for "confirmed tested cases" is in any way accurate, or even close enough to be in the same ball park, to what the true total number of actual cases have really been here among the UK population since this virus first arrived and during the many months it has been circulating for???


Seriously!!!???

How long will it be, going on monkey's stats, before 88 million, or 120% of Britain's population has had Covid?

...said the troll...

Well... If you can't say what bit of my calculations is wrong, and why, then my calculations must be correct!


I will go through it again for the hard of thinking...


I have had a look at case numbers from 1st September to the 1st of January... And there was around 2.5 million confirmed tested cases...


Data can be found here...


https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101947/coronavirus-cases-development-uk/


There were just over 300,000 UK cases in the last week of 2020.


And the govt said that going by the science, this meant that there were really about 1.1 million actual cases in the wider population in England alone in that same week... (Article that was provided by Syl can be found above on this thread).


So it would be a safe bet to say that for the whole of the UK this would be somewhere around 1.5 million cases for that week... which is 5x the UK confirmed tested case number...


Therefore if we use this multiplying factor for actual number of cases being 5x the confirmed tested cases for the period 1st September 2020 to 1st January 2021...


2,500,000 (confirmed tested cases from 1/9/20 to 1/1/21)

x 5 (multiplying factor)

= 12,500,000 (likely number of actual cases in the wider population from 1/9/20 to 1/1/21)


So... given that this calculation shows a likely actual number of 12,500,000 cases in just the last 4 months of 2020, is it really too much of a leap to say that this indicates that there are likely to have been around 30 million or more actual UK cases during the whole time the virus has been going around here...?


I don't know why some of you here find this all so hard to understand/believe...?


If you think this is wrong... Then tell me which bit and why?


And tell me a better way of working this estimate out?

Tommy Monk wrote:


Well... If you can't say what bit of my calculations is wrong, and why, then my calculations must be correct!


I will go through it again for the hard of thinking...


I have had a look at case numbers from 1st September to the 1st of January... And there was around 2.5 million confirmed tested cases...


Data can be found here...


https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101947/coronavirus-cases-development-uk/


There were just over 300,000 UK cases in the last week of 2020.


And the govt said that going by the science, this meant that there were really about 1.1 million actual cases in the wider population in England alone in that same week... (Article that was provided by Syl can be found above on this thread).


So it would be a safe bet to say that for the whole of the UK this would be somewhere around 1.5 million cases for that week... which is 5x the UK confirmed tested case number...


Therefore if we use this multiplying factor for actual number of cases being 5x the confirmed tested cases for the period 1st September 2020 to 1st January 2021...


2,500,000 (confirmed tested cases from 1/9/20 to 1/1/21)

x 5 (multiplying factor)

= 12,500,000 (likely number of actual cases in the wider population from 1/9/20 to 1/1/21)


So... given that this calculation shows a likely actual number of 12,500,000 cases in just the last 4 months of 2020, is it really too much of a leap to say that this indicates that there are likely to have been around 30 million or more actual UK cases during the whole time the virus has been going around here...?


I don't know why some of you here find this all so hard to understand/believe...?


If you think this is wrong... Then tell me which bit and why?


And tell me a better way of working this estimate out?

Is anyone here an expert on the matter? Just because you throw up your own calculations, doesn’t mean they are correct. Just because others don’t work out their own calculations, doesn’t mean yours are correct either. You may not even be wrong, but you aren’t right just because no one here has their own calculations.

Jeez, who needs scientists and professionals when we should all just be going to tommy for everything

Yawn...


You don't need to be a genius to understand the maths...

From Tommys own link....

Key figures for the most impacted countries worldwide

as of January 15, 6:39 GMT ....Total infections..... Active infections................ Recoveries ................Deaths

World                                         93,545,150           24,696,553                      66,845,955              2,002,642
USA                                            23,848,410           9,338,297                        14,112,119               397,994
India                                          10,528,508            213,816                            10,162,738               151,954
Brazil                                          8,326,115             779,252                             7,339,703                207,160
Russia                                        3,495,816              549,832                             2,882,044                63,940
UK                                         3,260,258            1,767,276                            1,406,967                86,015
France                                        2,851,670            2,575,555                            206,802                   69,313
Turkey                                        2,364,801            104,368                               2,236,938                23,495
Italy                                           2,336,279            561,380                               1,694,051                80,848
Spain                                         2,211,967                                                                                      53,079
Germany                                    2,004,011             317,319                               1,641,200               45,492


His link also says in America 22 million people have been so far infected (it was higher on the chart above) yet Tommy is insisting that the UK, which has a population 6 times smaller, has had 33million infections.

Tommy, go back to the drawing board.

The number in USA is for confirmed cases by testing... Not the number for actual number of cases in the wider population...


Do you not understand the difference!!!???

The true number of cases in USA is of course going to be considerably higher than the number of confirmed tested cases...


Why do you find this so difficult to understand!!!???

I already said that people who think they may have had the virus but have not had it confirmed won't be in those figures.
That could be any number, the scientists have no way of knowing, so obviously they cant put a figure on it as it would be a pure guess.

You however, have the wisdom to KNOW how many have had Covid19....though it could just as easily been seasonal flu, a random virus, bad cold....or simply 'man flu', which is probably what you had yourself.

But in the article you posted, the govt (obviously going by scientists guidance) said that there were likely 1.1 million actual cases in just England in the last week of 2020 when the tested number of cases was nearer 300,000 for that week for the whole of the UK...


So we know that the govt and their experts think that for every confirmed case there are at least another 4-5 actual cases in the wider population...


Why do you keep ignoring/dismissing this important factor...???

Tommy Monk wrote:But in the article you posted, the govt (obviously going by scientists guidance) said that there were likely 1.1 million actual cases in just England in the last week of 2020 when the tested number of cases was nearer 300,000 for that week for the whole of the UK...

So we know that the govt and their experts think that for every confirmed case there are at least another 4-5 actual cases in the wider population...

Why do you keep ignoring/dismissing this important factor...???

Basically, you are claiming a binomial relationship between "likely" cases, and "actual cases" for the given week.  So, can you give us a mean standard deviation, or probability, on that relationship?

Obviously you cannot...because you are violating the first rule of statistics: you cannot summarize unlike quantities.

No... I am quoting the actual number of tested cases in that week for the UK and the govt statement based on their scientific advice that in the same week there were likely around 1.1 million actual cases in the wider population just for England of which over 75% were not confirmed tested cases...


It has long been known that testing only shows the figure for cases that were tested, but another large number of cases are out there who have never been tested...


Especially as so many infected people have absolutely no symptoms whatsoever...

Tommy Monk wrote:No... I am quoting the actual number of tested cases in that week for the UK and the govt statement based on their scientific advice that in the same week there were likely around 1.1 million actual cases in the wider population just for England of which over 75% were not confirmed tested cases...

No? That's an admission that your numbers are invalid.

They are not my numbers...


They are the official confirmed tested case numbers, and the statement from the govt based on what their scientific advisors believe the true numbers of cases actually are in a given timeframe in comparison to what the confirmed tested cases show...


Are you saying the official tested case numbers and/or the govts scientific advisors are wrong...!?

Tommy Monk wrote:They are not my numbers...

They are the official confirmed tested case numbers, and the statement from the govt based on what their scientific advisors believe the true numbers of cases actually are in a given timeframe in comparison to what the confirmed tested cases show...

Are you saying the official tested case numbers and/or the govts scientific advisors are wrong...!?

No...I'm saying you are misusing the data. It's like comparing apples to oranges: when you try to summarize summary statistics, it doesn't work as they have different weights. It's a logical problem, not a problem with the sources.

How am I missing the data exactly?


The govt (based on their scientific advisors data) have said that in the week at the end of 2020, although there were around 300,000 UK confirmed tested cases, that in reality there were most probably over 1.1 million actual cases that week just in England...


So, what is wrong with using this ratio as a factor in other estimate calculations for the total number of likely actual cases in UK since the virus has been spreading around?


We already know plenty of other reliable statistics that we can use in our calculations...


I'm really not doing anything outlandish by using some basic mathematics to work out the numbers here!


And believe me when I say... I am more than qualified to do some basic maths...!!!

Tommy Monk wrote:How am I missing the data exactly?

I didn't say you are missing the data; I said you are misusing the data.  I explained that in the same post.

Read, tom...read carefully.

Tommy Monk wrote:And believe me when I say... I am more than qualified to do some basic maths...!!!

No, you are not.  I taught quantitative methods at Berkeley and Rutgers University.  You are making some of the most fundamental mistakes, suggesting you haven't even taken a basic course in the subject.

Tommy Monk wrote:


But in the article you posted, the govt (obviously going by scientists guidance) said that there were likely 1.1 million actual cases in just England in the last week of 2020 when the tested number of cases was nearer 300,000 for that week for the whole of the UK...


So we know that the govt and their experts think that for every confirmed case there are at least another 4-5 actual cases in the wider population...


Why do you keep ignoring/dismissing this important factor...???

Tommy, I have posted various links from government sites over the last few weeks, can you show the one you keep referring to please?

www.fakenews@conspiracytheories.com

Syl wrote:


"An estimated 1.1 million people in private households in England had Covid-19 between December 27 and January 2, according to new figures which scientists have described as “frighteningly high”.

This is the equivalent of around 2.06% of the population, or one in 50 people, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said."


https://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk/news/national/one-in-50-people-had-covid-19-between-december-27-and-january-2-ons-10212/

Then you went on to say how much you trust these figures and the experts responsible for compiling all the data involved...


Quote Syl...

Well I think, and hope others, would have more faith in a guestimate made by organisations made up from people who compile all their data based on scientific evidence, NHS figures, factual knowledge, official, research, etc ... rather than a guestimate from some random bloke on a forum.

No offence Tommy.






No offence taken Syl... I'm happy that you provided that key piece of information for my calculations, and that you think it is so accurate because it is from such a reputable group of experts...!


Many thanks!

Original Quill wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:How am I missing the data exactly?

I didn't say you are missing the data; I said you are misusing the data.  I explained that in the same post.

Read, tom...read carefully.

Tommy Monk wrote:And believe me when I say... I am more than qualified to do some basic maths...!!!

No, you are not.  I taught quantitative methods at Berkeley and Rutgers University.  You are making some of the most fundamental mistakes, suggesting you haven't even taken a basic course in the subject.

Don't patronise me... I did type 'misusing' but the predictive text on my phone changed it to 'missing' in my post...


And you couldn't teach a bird to fly, a fish to swim, or a dog to lick it's own bollocks!


If you were trying to teach a bear to shit in the woods, it would end up dying of constipation!!!


Go away you idiot!