How many of you think you've actually had the covid19 virus?

First topic message reminder :

Because... I'm pretty sure I've had it... my brother has had it... his Mrs has had it... my sister has had it... her fella has had it...


While none of us are on the list of being "confirmed cases" of having it...


Plus... I know dozens of other people who have said they're pretty sure that they have had it too... Having reported verifiable symptoms... Although none of these are listed on the official "confirmed cases" tally either...


And... All of these people that I know, who say they think they've had it, also say they each know dozens of others of people who say they have each had it too...





Isn't it likely that this virus has already done the rounds throughout the UK population... And most of us have already had it anyway...?


So no need for most of us to be hiding away from being infected by a virus that most of us have already had anyway...!?

Likely to be false positives...


Just like South Korea found...


Or false negative results...

Tommy Monk wrote:

Likely to be false positives...

Just like South Korea found...

Or false negative results...

Or, it could be that there is no immunity, and patients can reacquire the disease, either because it simultaneously attacks the immune system, or because the immune system simply can't kill it.  A vaccine, by definition, is supposed to defeat the pathogen and prevent any recurrence.

Either way, the medical authorities are going to have to iron out this wrinkle before they proceed to invest in a vaccine.  It's a set-back. Somewhere, somehow, the covid-19 virus has defeated at least some immune systems, and that leaves the spread intact.

New York Times wrote:Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives

Data Show even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, researchers found.

By James Glanz and Campbell Robertson
Published May 20, 2020
Updated May 21, 2020, 9:03 a.m. ET

NYT: If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.

And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.

Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May.

The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.

The New York Times is reporting that the delay by only 30 of the 70-days Trump dithered, in recognizing the dangers of this pandemic, and taking steps at social distancing, has caused the deaths of nearly 30,000 Americans.

Add to this that Trump spent 3 1/2 years disassembling the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Center for Disease Control (CDC) and the Pandemic Response Team (PRT), as wasteful and unnecessary regulations, and you have Wanton Disregard of the well-being and rights of Americans.  This act of veritable mass murder puts aside his rape of 13-year old’s, murder of Jeffery Epstein and mass murder at the Mexican Border.

This is genocide--the Trumpvirus Massacre--the largest misuse of power yet by a despot ever, to date.[/i]

This BBC journalist had it back in early January...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939



And here's another article about a choir group who had it early January too, in the north of the UK...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

Tommy Monk wrote:This BBC journalist had it back in early January...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52762939

And here's another article about a choir group who had it early January too, in the north of the UK...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

It was alive and spreading back in November.

I know...

In fact... It is said that the virus has been going around in China since September...

I wouldn't doubt it. Investigators keep backing up the date of its appearance.

The origin being mid September has been for quite some time now...


And the fact it has been going around in UK since before Christmas is widely said here... Although officially it is still said to have only arrived here 31st January...


There are reports of people presenting at hospital here with severe flu like symptoms but testing negative for influenza, since mid December...



If you read the bbc article i posted above... The journalist says he had a mystery bout of pneumonia at beginning of January and was diagnosed as having some sort of bacterial infection... he has since taken 3 antibody tests for covid19 and each one shows positive results for having had it...

Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

Clive Cookson, Science Editor March 24 2020


The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

However, the modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group has been challenged by other scientists. They have pointed out that the study presents possible scenarios — based on assumptions about the nature of the virus, its virulence and its arrival from China — that contradict those supported by most epidemiologists.

The Oxford research suggests that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest and perhaps as early as December. It spread invisibly for a month or more before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February and the epidemic started to grow exponentially.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Prof Gupta said.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

The above theory is based on the scenario that covid19 actually arrived in the country weeks before officially believed... and was actually spreading around from possibly as early as December here in UK...


Given that it is now becoming evident that the virus was here in UK since before Christmas... I'd say it is very likely the true numbers of the population who've had it will be huge!!!

As will the numbers who died, and were permanently afflicted by it.

No... The original predictions here were that there could be 500,000 deaths in uk from this virus... But if half the population had already had it when this article was written 24th March, then now even more than half will have had it and death rate so far is less than 40,000...

Tommy Monk wrote:


No... The original predictions here were that there could be 500,000 deaths in uk from this virus... But if half the population had already had it when this article was written 24th March, then now even more than half will have had it and death rate so far is less than 40,000...

The prediction of 500,000 UK deaths was under a scenario in which the UK did nothing to slow the spread of the coronavirus -- no social distancing, no closing non-essential businesses, etc.

I don’t think we will ever know how bad the virus could have been but I’m glad that we didn’t take risks.

But mostly I’m glad I got a few paid months off work to enjoy my husband and my family.

So selfishly, I’m glad we had a lockdown. But we may never know the truth...as with everything in life.

It worked well for you. Gd. for you.

Original Quill wrote:It worked well for you.  Gd. for you.

Thanks you Quill. I am aware I sound selfish, but I can only be honest. Do I wish it hadn’t killed many people? Of course I don’t wish all these deaths.
But I’m just me. I can’t not say what I feel.

eddie wrote:

Original Quill wrote:It worked well for you.  Gd. for you.

Thanks you Quill. I am aware I sound selfish, but I can only be honest. Do I wish it hadn’t killed many people? Of course I don’t wish all these deaths.
But I’m just me. I can’t not say what I feel.

No apologies necessary.

We will see the extent of infection here in UK when the antibody tests are rolled out...

And I bet the numbers are very high... And a big surprise to many...

Trumpvirus expected to claim 100,000 deaths today.

Given that you have 5x the population of UK... And we have had 37000 deaths so far... You should expect to see nearer 200,000 deaths there...


And it is China origin virus... Not trump...

More deaths than all the wars collectively since WWII, due to Trump's ineptitude.

No... they died from the virus...


And given that this is a new virus with no real effective treatment or cure yet, and given that you have quite a large number of over 70s there, and also a large number of people who are overweight and/or have diabetes, which are major high risk factors of dying from this virus... and given that the numbers currently who have sadly died from this virus there are much lower per million than in many other countries, and much lower per million than here in UK... then I think it's fair to say that things could be a darn sight worse over there...

Tommy Monk wrote:


No... they died from the virus...

A virus that Trump saw coming back as early as November, yet did nothing to mitigate. You might as well argue that the man pulling the trigger didn't kill the victims, the expanding chemicals of the bullet did.

Trump knew what would happen--he was repeatedly warned, yet he did nothing. Indeed, he did less than nothing...he had already aggressively disabled the efforts of the FDA, CDC, the DOH&H and the Pandemic Response Team...all the efforts that Dr. Obama had put in place for just this occasion. Trump's denials during January, February and into March of this year, are all over the news shows.

The standard of the law is: intention or reckless indifference to the consequences of your action. Whether one pulls a trigger, or let’s loose a virus that one knows will kill 100,000 (so far), one is guilty of murder.

Waffle...

Tommy Monk wrote:Waffle...

Nonsense.  To offer no answer, is to admit you have no answer.

Under any other circumstances than the immunity given to presidential appointees, Trump would be criminally indicted.

I gave my answer...


What you said was waffle...

Tommy Monk wrote:I gave my answer...

What you said was waffle...

The precise answer that you gave, is a tacit admission that you have no answer. Silence in the face of so compelling a question is a shout out of: Guilty!

I'm delighted that you agree.

Waffle...

Tommy Monk wrote:Waffle...

Tommy...people can judge for themselves.

Yes... they can...

Just say: I agree, and you are brilliant pointing that out!

They will see that you are talking waffle...!

Just say: I agree with you, and you're brilliant Quill!

Voted.  
I got it in early January. Totally convinced! Scary shit it was. High fever, everything.      
I'm normally quite healthy and I take care of myself.

So that's 60% of posters who voted on this thread think they've already had it...


Isn't it entirely possible that 60% of the UK have had it already to...?

Tommy Monk wrote:So that's 60% of posters who voted on this thread think they've already had it...

Isn't it entirely possible that 60% of the UK have had it already to...?

Anything is possible, even "entirely", whatever that means. We won't know until thorough population testing can be had.

entirely
1 adv Entirely means completely and not just partly.
ADV adj, ADV with v, ADV with cl/group (=completely, totally)
...an entirely new approach..., Fraud is an entirely different matter..., Their price depended almost entirely on their scarcity...
2 adv Entirely is also used to emphasize what you are saying.
ADV with v, ADV group (emphasis) I agree entirely..., Oh, the whole episode was entirely his fault.

Tommy Monk wrote:entirely  
1    adv  Entirely means completely and not just partly.  
ADV adj, ADV with v, ADV with cl/group   (=completely, totally)  
...an entirely new approach..., Fraud is an entirely different matter..., Their price depended almost entirely on their scarcity...    
2    adv  Entirely is also used to emphasize what you are saying.  
ADV with v, ADV group    (emphasis)   I agree entirely..., Oh, the whole episode was entirely his fault.    

But, 'possible' means only capable of occurring... www.thefreedictionary.com/possible...not actually occurring.  So, the adverb, being merely a modifier, is itself capable of no more than the term being modified.  It's a linguistic anomaly, used when one must admit to a limitation, but wants to stress his/her strong conviction despite the limitation.  Unsupported convictions are not worth the paper they are written on.

It is very nearly a contradiction in terms, hence I cautioned you about using it.