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The BIG winner of the mid-term elections was... Hillary Clinton??

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The BIG winner of the mid-term elections was... Hillary Clinton?? Empty The BIG winner of the mid-term elections was... Hillary Clinton??

Post by Independent Thoughts Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:51 pm

Like many of you have opined, a lot can happen in the two years unitil the next presidential election. Including the Republicans making a lot of flubs and mistakes that will bring forth a sentiment of "voter's remorse" and send them running back to the Democrats for a President. Here's an article that goes into more detail of that scenario:

One might be able to excuse Democratic spin before the election returns came in. But former Newsweek reporter Andrew Romano offered a real beaut the morning after at Yahoo News, titled “How Hillary Clinton won the 2014 midterms.” Many of the candidates that the Clintons backed in this cycle went down to defeat. While Romano isn’t denying 2014 was a good year for Republicans, he could not wait to start shaking the pom-poms for how Hillary’s path is greased for the White House. This is the article that liberals will want to read after they put their handkerchiefs down.

But here’s the thing: In politics, the easy answer isn’t always the only answer, and the winner of an election isn’t always the one who benefits most. Take a closer look at demography, geography and the road ahead for the parties, and it’s clear that the long-term winner of the 2014 midterms wasn’t the GOP at all. The long-term winner, in fact, wasn’t even on the ballot this year. Her name is Hillary Clinton. Of course the GOP is celebrating right now, as it should. Any election that ends up putting Republicans into the governors’ mansions in Illinois and Maryland is worth getting worked up about. But under the surface, almost everything about last night’s midterm results — and the map, the math and the legislative morass that lies ahead in the run-up to 2016 — suggests that the former first lady and secretary of state will have a better next two years than the party currently guzzling champagne. Which is not to say that Clinton herself will necessarily be an unbeatable candidate. She spent the past two months holding 45 campaign events in 18 hard-fought states, but almost all the big candidates she stumped for lost, from Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky to Bruce Braley in Iowa. Many will say her campaign skills are still rusty — and she certainly won’t be heading into 2016 with many chits to cash in. But that doesn’t change one simple fact: Even a huge GOP victory shows how much catching up the Republican have to do if they want to defeat Hillary in 2016...

In other words, for every Senate seat that Republicans flipped in 2014, there’s one — or more — that’s likely to flip back to the Democrats in 2016. The chances that the GOP will still control the upper chamber of Congress after 2016 are slim. How does this help Clinton? By giving her an added boost on an electoral playing field that already favors a Democratic presidential nominee. In the last six elections, 18 states (plus Washington, D.C.) have voted for the Democratic candidate every single time. This means that Clinton, assuming she’s the nominee, will start out with 242 electoral votes in 2016; she’ll need only 28 of the remaining 183 tossups to win the election. To defeat her, the Republican candidate will basically have to run the table in the purple states — “not a game plan with a high probability of success,” according to Republican pollsters Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse. Making matters worse is the fact that Republican senators will already be playing defense in several of these states, attracting additional Democratic attention and resources that will ultimately bolster the candidate at the top of the ticket as well.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tim-graham/2014/11/05/lol-spin-yahoo-news-how-hillary-clinton-won-2014-midterms

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Post by Ben Reilly Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:20 pm

It's not just the demographics trending against the GOP; this sweep is a house built on sand. It's quite unusual for an election to go like this one did when the country is actually doing pretty well, at least compared to other points over the past decade or so.

The Republicans also are likely to suffer a built-in disadvantage over the next two years thanks largely to all the hot air being issued over this sweep. We've talked about how the Senate Democratic Caucus has been able to accomplish next to nothing since at least 2012 despite having 55 seats. Now the GOP is said to have "seized" the Senate by capturing an even smaller majority. They're said to have Obama on his heels when they really have nothing to push with.

As Quill has pointed out, there's already quite a bit of tension between the Tea Party and mainstream GOP factions of the party. Failure to achieve something big, like repealing the ACA, will just fracture the conservative movement even further.

I'm also looking at some exit poll info that should make the GOP nervous. This is from the Texas governor race, in which Greg Abbott won by a huge 20-plus point margin:

* Davis was even with Abbott in voters under 29 and beat him in voters 29-44. Abbott's entire advantage came from voters over 45. Young Texas is purple, even if its older voters are still red ...

* Davis won decidedly among black and Latino voters. Abbott's entire advantage broken down by race came from white voters, who will soon be a plurality rather than majority in Texas ...

* On religious issues, Abbott claimed 84 percent of the White evangelical Christian vote; among "all others" Davis edged him 50-48. Religiosity is generally on the decline.

* Fully 75 percent of the Texas electorate was "somewhat or very worried" about the direction of the nation's economy. There is no empirical data to justify those feelings -- the house built on sand.

* While the Democrats do worse in Texas, 49 percent of Texans have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party, to 47 percent who have a favorable view. That is really not good for the biggest red state. Also, 38 percent of Texans believe the ACA either is good as is or didn't go far enough.

* 50 percent of Texans believe Ted Cruz wouldn't make a good president, and 60 percent feel the same about Rick Perry.
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Post by Cass Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:04 am

2/3of the voting population did not vote. I find that most disturbing of all.
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Post by Original Quill Thu Nov 06, 2014 5:52 pm

Two years of Republicans may not be a bad thing.  Without the White House they can't do any harm, and their goofy antics will really be on display for the public to witness fully.

Even if they try to impeach Obama: (1) they have no grounds; and (2) they will be left with Joe Biden.  What will they have gained except the public's disgust?

Look what happened to Bill Clintion when the House voted to impeach him in 1998:

CNN wrote:(AllPolitics, December 20, 1998) -- In the wake of the House of Representatives' approval of two articles of impeachment, Bill Clinton's approval rating has jumped 10 points to 73 percent, the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows.

But look what also happened:

CNN December 20, 1998 wrote:The poll, released Sunday, also shows that 35 percent approve of the House's decision to impeach the president.

Which is to say, 65% of the population disapproved.  The approval rating of the Republicans took a nose-dive:

CNN December 20, 1998 wrote: What is your opinion of both the Republican and Democratic parties?

            Favorable  Unfavorable

Republican      31%         57%
Democratic      57          30

A blessing in disguise? We know how short-sighted voters are. A reminder just before the big election might be timely indeed.

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Post by nicko Thu Nov 06, 2014 6:09 pm

Your country seems a bit fucked up Quill.
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Post by Original Quill Thu Nov 06, 2014 6:21 pm

nicko wrote:Your country seems a bit fucked up Quill.

Tell me about it.

But is yours any better?  All that diddlin' little boys in the back halls of Parliament?  Shocked

The BIG winner of the mid-term elections was... Hillary Clinton?? Nigel+evans+mp+gay+rape+speaker+parliament+uk+eu+europe+joseph+chikelue+obi+prof+professor+dr+doc+doctor+mr+mister

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Post by Lurker Sun Nov 09, 2014 10:21 pm

Bernie Sanders - Elizabeth Warren - 2016?

The BIG winner of the mid-term elections was... Hillary Clinton?? BernieElizabeth2016_zpsdcf0168d
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Post by Eilzel Mon Nov 10, 2014 2:49 am

Both UK and USA are hitting a road block, 2 major parties with truly little between them yet polarising in media.
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Post by Original Quill Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:16 am

I think the gap between the parties is greater than it has been in 100-years, Les. But that is mainly because of the Tea Party and the radical right anti-government movement. http://www.adl.org/combating-hate/domestic-extremism-terrorism/c/rage-grows-in-america.html

American politics used to be characterized as tweedle dum and tweedle dee. That phase was generally detested. American politics was called unoriginal and apathetic.

Now, folks are not that sure. These guys hiding out with guns at Ruby Ridge or Bundy Ranch make people nervous.

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Post by Cass Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:24 am

Lurker wrote:Bernie Sanders - Elizabeth Warren - 2016?

The BIG winner of the mid-term elections was... Hillary Clinton?? BernieElizabeth2016_zpsdcf0168d

don't know anything about Sanders but I like Elizabeth Warren a lot!
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Post by Original Quill Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:28 am

Warren would make a good vice-presidential candidate for Hillary...that is, if I hadn't already given that spot to Wendy Davis.

Warren is great on the Senate Banking Committee, asking the Justice Department officials how we can jail so many petty drug offenders, yet we can't jail one $-billion banker when they break the law (as they so frequently do). Go figure.

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Post by Tommy Monk Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:24 am

Hilarity Clinton is just another establishment crony....




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Post by Original Quill Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:34 am

That's the reason why I like Wendy Davis.

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Post by Ben Reilly Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:04 am

I'd love to see a Warren-Sanders ticket, but how many within even the Democratic Party are going to say, "Oh, that's too liberal, we need a Clinton-O'Malley ticket"?
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Post by Ben Reilly Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:05 am

By the way, Bernie Sanders is fantastic:

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Post by Original Quill Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:38 pm

Ben_Reilly wrote:I'd love to see a Warren-Sanders ticket, but how many within even the Democratic Party are going to say, "Oh, that's too liberal, we need a Clinton-O'Malley ticket"?

No interest in the Maryland gov.

Where does he come in? Just because he wants it? Pleeeeeeeeze. You might as well recruit Fats Christy.

Ya gotta have someone who makes a modicum of sense.

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