How Britain Lost the Lockdown Battle

March 23 marks the anniversary of Britain's lockdown. It's not that memorable a milestone, admittedly, as it's hardly the only country in that position. But the U.K. has one big difference from most countries, not least the United States: We're still in a strict lockdown.

This often goes underappreciated on the American side of the pond. Many point to indoor dining bans and the like in the U.S. as evidence that lockdowns endure on both sides of the Atlantic. But as irritating as those laws might be, they're not the same as the U.K. lockdown.


Since the beginning of January, the U.K. has had the real deal (just as we did for all of last spring and winter): an indefinite stay-at-home order coupled with on-the-spot fines for anyone going outdoors without good reason or visiting a family member. Bars, gyms, churches, and "non-essential" retailers (the majority of which were already shut thanks to the "local" lockdowns that engulfed much of England last winter) have all been closed for months.

Eleven weeks in and we've seen only the most minor relaxations. Since March 8, it's been permitted for two people to meet outside for a coffee—provided it's in a public space. From March 29, this limit will be extended to six people, and to private gardens. Meeting indoors will remain illegal until the middle of May.

The enduring lockdown is quite surprising. Goodness knows that if you'd said this time last year the U.K. would still be in lockdown—and all under "freedom-loving" Prime Minister Boris Johnson—you'd have been laughed out of town. That's before you factor in the vaccines, of which some 50 percent of U.K. adults (and virtually all seniors) have now received at least one dose.


Yet here we are: 12 months into restrictions and our once-cherished approach to liberty has been totally inverted. Lockdown, once a temporary aberration, has instead become the default. The burden of proof is placed on those arguing for freedom, rather than those wanting to remain in lockdown.

What went wrong? One ongoing, and unexpected, factor has been the astounding popularity of lockdowns. Ever since spring 2020, opinion polling has shown previously unthinkable majorities in favor of restrictions. Last month, for example, 72 percent of those asked backed the idea of a 10-day hotel quarantine for all international arrivals. Meanwhile, 59 percent of Brits want a ban on all protests and demonstrations during the pandemic.

It's no secret that the Boris Johnson administration is even more preoccupied with polling than its predecessors. Sometimes he appears reluctant to speak on an issue before consulting the polls. Witness his slowness last summer, for example, to speak out on the issue of whether anti-racism protesters were right to target a statue of Winston Churchill, a question that should have been an open goal for any Conservative Party prime minister.

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But why do Brits back lockdown in the first place? The U.K.'s heightened fear of the virus plays a big role, as does the affinity for our National Health Service (which did, it's true, come under serious strain in January). That some of our doom-mongering modelers are already catastrophizing about a deadly "third wave" this summer doesn't help either.

Much of the country remains scarred by what many regard as a botched opening up last summer, when the government finally decided to reopen hospitality (albeit with strict physical distancing) after three and a half months of total closure. It was a decision that, at the time, was largely cheered by the British press. But nine months on from what the papers dubbed "super Saturday" and the reopening is being held up as the moment at which Britain began its headfirst march into a deadly second wave.

It's an argument that ignores the fact that, at the time of reopening, COVID-19 cases had plunged to miniscule levels in Britain; a level at which they remained all summer. Never mind, too, that the U.K.'s services-led economy had slumped by a record 20 percent at this point, and that human vaccine trials were still in their earliest stages. What was the alternative? Staying shut indefinitely?

None of this, unfortunately, has stopped this argument from catching on with a public whose approach to reopening now resembles that old Chinese proverb about the man bitten by a snake being scared of rope. In fact, more than a quarter of Britons say the current reopening plan—stores in April; bars with masks in May; freedom in June—is too quick, even with mass vaccination having driven down our case levels to the second lowest in Europe.

It's all a far cry from January, when our health secretary promised to "cry freedom" once the over-50s were vaccinated and, by extension, 95 percent of deaths eliminated. Instead, the goal posts have shifted, with the new line being that even a small rise in cases might lead to a rogue vaccine-resistant strain.

In some ways, the U.K. has been a victim of its own vaccine success. The expedited timeline of the rollout, well beyond original expectations, now means that we should have jabbed all willing adults by June. But rather than enabling the reopening of society, our vaccine success has crystallized a different proposition: What's another few weeks of house arrest if it removes that final scintilla of risk?

Like many lockdown critics, I have dozens of answers to that question. But it's too late: The battle is lost, and thanks largely to a half-truth. They told us vaccines would be our ticket to freedom—they didn't tell us we'd be taking the slow train.

https://reason.com/2021/03/19/how-britain-lost-the-lockdown-battle/


It's almost like a form of Stockholm syndrome. The vaccines are working. Herd immunity is working. Let's get back to real life.

We were hit bad in the UK. I think the government wants to ensure there are no more deaths and whether the vaccine works.

I've not once been stopped by a police officer and asked about my business. A few large gatherings have been busted up and the organisers fined £10,000, but this has happened maybe two or three times.

People violate the mixing of households rule all the time, from what I've seen. People go into shops, say they've got asthma and get out of wearing masks if they don't feel like it.

There are far fewer police over here than in Texas -- something you might like, Maddog.

This article exaggerates on a lot of points, particularly the "on-the-spot fines for anybody going outdoors without good reason." That literally never happens.

Ben Reilly wrote:I've not once been stopped by a police officer and asked about my business. A few large gatherings have been busted up and the organisers fined £10,000, but this has happened maybe two or three times.

People violate the mixing of households rule all the time, from what I've seen. People go into shops, say they've got asthma and get out of wearing masks if they don't feel like it.

There are far fewer police over here than in Texas -- something you might like, Maddog.

This article exaggerates on a lot of points, particularly the "on-the-spot fines for anybody going outdoors without good reason." That literally never happens.

Is it not happening because it's not the law or because cops just don't want to mess with it?

eddie wrote:We were hit bad in the UK. I think the government wants to ensure there are no more deaths and whether the vaccine works.

We were hit hard here too. And we have basically the same results without the lockdown.

You're under house arrest for nothing.  And it almost seems like a lot of folks enjoy it.

Maddog wrote:

eddie wrote:We were hit bad in the UK. I think the government wants to ensure there are no more deaths and whether the vaccine works.

We were hit hard here too.  And we have basically the same results without the lockdown.  

There’s a lot more space in most places in the US. We have overcrowded, built up areas, packed with shit tons of people.

Having said that, I was always in favour of just letting people get on either it whilst wearing masks.

Maddog wrote:

Ben Reilly wrote:I've not once been stopped by a police officer and asked about my business. A few large gatherings have been busted up and the organisers fined £10,000, but this has happened maybe two or three times.

People violate the mixing of households rule all the time, from what I've seen. People go into shops, say they've got asthma and get out of wearing masks if they don't feel like it.

There are far fewer police over here than in Texas -- something you might like, Maddog.

This article exaggerates on a lot of points, particularly the "on-the-spot fines for anybody going outdoors without good reason." That literally never happens.

Is it not happening because it's not the law or because cops just don't want to mess with it?

The laws are published here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home

They do sound draconian, but I've seen groups of people hanging out for a chat outside and police walk or drive right past. The police website over here (yes, there's a website about all police forces in the UK) specifically said not to bother them unless you saw a big house party, etc.

Ben Reilly wrote:

Maddog wrote:

Is it not happening because it's not the law or because cops just don't want to mess with it?

The laws are published here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home

They do sound draconian, but I've seen groups of people hanging out for a chat outside and police walk or drive right past. The police website over here (yes, there's a website about all police forces in the UK) specifically said not to bother them unless you saw a big house party, etc.

Oh my, you can stand outside and chat with a neighbor?

Sounds like anarchy.

I’ve been to Texas, where you live, I’ve shopped there in supermarkets, and even on their busiest days, your stores are nowhere near as crowded as ours. Nor are your streets or freeways.

And of course, I'm glad that the pandemic hasn't hit my home state too hard (still harder than I would have preferred).

But it was always going to hit England (and most of Western Europe) harder because the population density is so much greater over here. The entirety of the UK is less than half the size of Texas but has more than twice the population.

Another thing that a lot of Americans don't realize about the UK -- yes, the country is technically The United Kingdom of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. But while the nation has a population of roughly 67 million, roughly 57 million of those people live in England, with the rest scattered throughout the other countries.

You just can't open your door or walk 100 yards without seeing another person, the way you can in Texas and many other places in America.

eddie wrote:I’ve been to Texas, where you live, I’ve shopped there in supermarkets, and even on their busiest days, your stores are nowhere near as crowded as ours. Nor are your streets or freeways.

2.3 million people live in Tarrant County. Our
numbers followed Texas and the UK. And yet we have been open for months and dropped mask requirements 3 weeks ago.

Come to England and find out what crowded is like. You have no idea what a place is like until you visit there for a while.

Otherwise you’re just a man that never left America so only knows America.
Like much of the Americans.

Fort Worth has a density of about 2600 per square mile, Epping, 3700 per square mile, so it's little more dense.  

But the point is, you're numbers are dropping like a rock and you're still locked down.  

What's it going to take to signal the all clear?

eddie wrote:Come to England and find out what crowded is like. You have no idea what a place is like until you visit there for a while.

Otherwise you’re just a man that never left America so only knows America.
Like much of the Americans.

I just posted some figures. You do know I'm a number cruncher for a living. As long as I have reliable data I can draw reliable conclusions.

What went wrong? One ongoing, and unexpected, factor has been the astounding popularity of lockdowns. Ever since spring 2020, opinion polling has shown previously unthinkable majorities in favor of restrictions. Last month, for example, 72 percent of those asked backed the idea of a 10-day hotel quarantine for all international arrivals. Meanwhile, 59 percent of Brits want a ban on all protests and demonstrations during the pandemic.


This is more of the topic anyway. It's how people have embraced the lockdowns.

Maddog wrote:

eddie wrote:Come to England and find out what crowded is like. You have no idea what a place is like until you visit there for a while.

Otherwise you’re just a man that never left America so only knows America.
Like much of the Americans.

I just posted some figures. You do know I'm a number cruncher for a living. As long as I have reliable data I can draw reliable conclusions.

My above statements still stand. You haven't been here so you can’t live it, experience it, and truly know.

Maddog wrote:Fort Worth has a density of about 2600 per square mile, Epping, 3700 per square mile, so it's little more dense.  

But the point is, you're numbers are dropping like a rock and you're still locked down.  

What's it going to take to signal the all clear?

We tried loosening the rules last year and our numbers shot right back up. October was basically a bloodbath.

We don't need to be lifting restrictions until cases are rare and the majority of the country has been vaccinated. That'll probably be within the next 6 months or so.

Ben Reilly wrote:

Maddog wrote:Fort Worth has a density of about 2600 per square mile, Epping, 3700 per square mile, so it's little more dense.  

But the point is, you're numbers are dropping like a rock and you're still locked down.  

What's it going to take to signal the all clear?

We tried loosening the rules last year and our numbers shot right back up. October was basically a bloodbath.

We don't need to be lifting restrictions until cases are rare and the majority of the country has been vaccinated. That'll probably be within the next 6 months or so.

Why?

You're not getting better results. What's the point?

Vaccines and herd immunity is working.

eddie wrote:

Maddog wrote:

I just posted some figures. You do know I'm a number cruncher for a living. As long as I have reliable data I can draw reliable conclusions.

My above statements still stand. You haven't been here so you can’t live it, experience it, and truly know.  

I haven't been to the moon either. Hell, only about a dozen people have. Guess the rest of us are clueless because there's no other sources of information about the place.

Maddog wrote:

Ben Reilly wrote:

Maddog wrote:Fort Worth has a density of about 2600 per square mile, Epping, 3700 per square mile, so it's little more dense.  

But the point is, you're numbers are dropping like a rock and you're still locked down.  

What's it going to take to signal the all clear?

We tried loosening the rules last year and our numbers shot right back up. October was basically a bloodbath.

We don't need to be lifting restrictions until cases are rare and the majority of the country has been vaccinated. That'll probably be within the next 6 months or so.

Why?

You're not getting better results.  What's the point?

Vaccines and herd immunity is working.  

You're forgetting the vaccination triage going on over here. Most people under age 50 haven't been able to get vaccinated yet.

Maddog wrote:

eddie wrote:

Maddog wrote:

I just posted some figures. You do know I'm a number cruncher for a living. As long as I have reliable data I can draw reliable conclusions.

My above statements still stand. You haven't been here so you can’t live it, experience it, and truly know.  

I haven't been to the moon either. Hell, only about a dozen people have. Guess the rest of us are clueless because there's no other sources of information about the place.  

You only have a vague idea of what the moon is like from reading.
You can’t KNOW what it’s like because you’ve never been.

Kinda obvious.

eddie wrote:

Maddog wrote:

I haven't been to the moon either. Hell, only about a dozen people have. Guess the rest of us are clueless because there's no other sources of information about the place.  

You only have a vague idea of what the moon is like from reading.
You can’t KNOW what it’s like because you’ve never been.

Kinda obvious.  

Yeah, same as all of the NASA scientists that never went there.

Ben Reilly wrote:

Maddog wrote:

Why?

You're not getting better results.  What's the point?

Vaccines and herd immunity is working.  

You're forgetting the vaccination triage going on over here. Most people under age 50 haven't been able to get vaccinated yet.

Same here. And your numbers are mirroring ours in terms of declines in new cases.

Maddog wrote:

eddie wrote:

Maddog wrote:

I haven't been to the moon either. Hell, only about a dozen people have. Guess the rest of us are clueless because there's no other sources of information about the place.  

You only have a vague idea of what the moon is like from reading.
You can’t KNOW what it’s like because you’ve never been.

Kinda obvious.  

Yeah, same as all of the NASA scientists that never went there.  

Yes exactly. They have the accounts of others who went to the moon. Just as you have my accounts from my living in England.
Ergo, you should believe me.

Maddog wrote:

Ben Reilly wrote:

Maddog wrote:

Why?

You're not getting better results.  What's the point?

Vaccines and herd immunity is working.  

You're forgetting the vaccination triage going on over here. Most people under age 50 haven't been able to get vaccinated yet.

Same here. And your numbers are mirroring ours in terms of declines in new cases.  

I don't think that's true; I'm pretty sure my 30-something sister has already had her first dose.

Maddog wrote:What went wrong? One ongoing, and unexpected, factor has been the astounding popularity of lockdowns. Ever since spring 2020, opinion polling has shown previously unthinkable majorities in favor of restrictions. Last month, for example, 72 percent of those asked backed the idea of a 10-day hotel quarantine for all international arrivals. Meanwhile, 59 percent of Brits want a ban on all protests and demonstrations during the pandemic.


This is more of the topic anyway.  It's how people have embraced the lockdowns.

Lockdowns are hardly popular, they are necessary if we dont want a third spike. 
France and Poland are already in their 3rd lockdown, Germany and other EU countries are close.

The UK is gradually lifting restrictions and come the end of June, all being well, all restrictions will have been lifted.
 Every adult should have been offered the vacination by the end of July.

I think population density is much less of an issue regarding Covid than is made out to be.

New Zealand and Australia are way less dense than the UK and managed covid better. Taiwan and South Korea are way more densely populated and also handled it better.

Within the UK, London and the surrounding area is densely populated, but other cities and outside cities aren’t really so much.

And regardless, anywhere in the world, major cities are very densely populated. It doesn’t matter the overall density of a country of most people live in big cities.

I also think restrictions need to be lifted a little soon. If the vaccine isn’t going to stop cases rising and people dying, then we either face life with the virus and live with it, or be in a perpetual cycle of lockdowns. The latter is a miserable proposition.

Les, my point to Maddog is that he really doesn’t get how densely populated parts of the UK are. It’s not like that in Texas where he lives. Everything is so far apart! Supermarkets, on their busiest days are like a Sunday over here. There are more people walking around in my tiny town than in the whole of downtown Fort Worth.

eddie wrote:Les, my point to Maddog is that he really doesn’t get how densely populated parts of the UK are. It’s not like that in Texas where he lives. Everything is so far apart! Supermarkets, on their busiest days are like a Sunday over here. There are more people walking around in my tiny town than in the whole of downtown Fort Worth.

I can believe it being hard for people who never leave their country to imagine what others are like.

London and the surrounding area are exceptionally busy, even by UK standards, it stunned me when I first went even from Manchester

But then I went to places like Shanghai and Tokyo and suddenly London didn’t seem to chaotic

Eilzel wrote:

eddie wrote:Les, my point to Maddog is that he really doesn’t get how densely populated parts of the UK are. It’s not like that in Texas where he lives. Everything is so far apart! Supermarkets, on their busiest days are like a Sunday over here. There are more people walking around in my tiny town than in the whole of downtown Fort Worth.

I can believe it being hard for people who never leave their country to imagine what others are like.

London and the surrounding area are exceptionally busy, even by UK standards, it stunned me when I first went even from Manchester

But then I went to places like Shanghai and Tokyo and suddenly London didn’t seem to chaotic  

Yeah, I bet!

I'll make the same point in this thread as I did in the previous thread
ie  the lockdown nightmare will end in the very same way it started - with homicidal cops.

eddie wrote:Les, my point to Maddog is that he really doesn’t get how densely populated parts of the UK are. It’s not like that in Texas where he lives. Everything is so far apart! Supermarkets, on their busiest days are like a Sunday over here. There are more people walking around in my tiny town than in the whole of downtown Fort Worth.

Density is simply a mathematical equation. No one has to go anywhere to know how many people live in a square mile, whether it's Saskatoon, Saskatchewan or Lima, Peru.

Ben Reilly wrote:

Maddog wrote:

Same here. And your numbers are mirroring ours in terms of declines in new cases.  

I don't think that's true; I'm pretty sure my 30-something sister has already had her first dose.

We are officially on the 50 year olds and up.

But there are loopholes and ways around that.

You have done an excellent job of vaccinated people.

Resume your lives. It's OK.

eddie wrote:

Maddog wrote:

Yeah, same as all of the NASA scientists that never went there.  

Yes exactly. They have the accounts of others who went to the moon. Just as you have my accounts from my living in England.
Ergo, you should believe me.

"Robert Jackman is a London-based writer and critic with the Spectator."

Syl wrote:

Maddog wrote:What went wrong? One ongoing, and unexpected, factor has been the astounding popularity of lockdowns. Ever since spring 2020, opinion polling has shown previously unthinkable majorities in favor of restrictions. Last month, for example, 72 percent of those asked backed the idea of a 10-day hotel quarantine for all international arrivals. Meanwhile, 59 percent of Brits want a ban on all protests and demonstrations during the pandemic.


This is more of the topic anyway.  It's how people have embraced the lockdowns.

Lockdowns are hardly popular, they are necessary if we dont want a third spike. 
France and Poland are already in their 3rd lockdown, Germany and other EU countries are close.

The UK is gradually lifting restrictions and come the end of June, all being well, all restrictions will have been lifted.
 Every adult should have been offered the vacination by the end of July.

Well, the polls seem to say otherwise.

Maddog wrote:

Syl wrote:
Lockdowns are hardly popular, they are necessary if we dont want a third spike. 
France and Poland are already in their 3rd lockdown, Germany and other EU countries are close.

The UK is gradually lifting restrictions and come the end of June, all being well, all restrictions will have been lifted.
 Every adult should have been offered the vacination by the end of July.

Well, the polls seem to say otherwise.

Infection rates and deaths have dropped dramatically. The vaccination programme and the lockdown have worked in unison to achieve this.
The figures will always rise  (hopefully temporarily) when restrictions are gradually lifted, as they were expected to do with the reopening of schools....and they will do with the reopening of none essential shops etc.

Having lived in both countries (and in Europe) in a variety of towns, I would say that I would have much preferred to be in the UK with a hard lockdown and a government that tried their best, in spite of very difficult and sometimes tragic situations, to protect their citizens.

Syl wrote:

Maddog wrote:

Well, the polls seem to say otherwise.

Infection rates and deaths have dropped dramatically. The vaccination programme and the lockdown have worked in unison to achieve this.
The figures will always rise  (hopefully temporarily) when restrictions are gradually lifted, as they were expected to do with the reopening of schools....and they will do with the reopening of none essential shops etc.

I'm talking about the polls in favor of lockdowns. They are quite popular. No doubt people have been convinced they were necessary.

Cass wrote:Having lived in both countries (and in Europe) in a variety of towns, I would say that I would have much preferred to be in the UK with a hard lockdown and a government that tried their best, in spite of very difficult and sometimes tragic situations, to protect their citizens.

So you need a government to lock yourself down?

Maddog wrote:

Syl wrote:

Infection rates and deaths have dropped dramatically. The vaccination programme and the lockdown have worked in unison to achieve this.
The figures will always rise  (hopefully temporarily) when restrictions are gradually lifted, as they were expected to do with the reopening of schools....and they will do with the reopening of none essential shops etc.

I'm talking about the polls in favor of lockdowns. They are quite popular. No doubt people have been convinced they were necessary.  

So the people wha have taken part in the polls realise that deaths fall dramatically during lockdowns, it's happened twice now in the UK.

Syl wrote:

Maddog wrote:

I'm talking about the polls in favor of lockdowns. They are quite popular. No doubt people have been convinced they were necessary.  

So the people wha have taken part in the polls realise that deaths fall dramatically during lockdowns, it's happened twice now in the UK.

Thing is, deaths fall dramatically without lockdowns too.

"But why do Brits back lockdown in the first place? The U.K.'s heightened fear of the virus plays a big role, as does the affinity for our National Health Service (which did, it's true, come under serious strain in January). That some of our doom-mongering modelers are already catastrophizing about a deadly "third wave" this summer doesn't help either."

Maddog wrote:"But why do Brits back lockdown in the first place? The U.K.'s heightened fear of the virus plays a big role, as does the affinity for our National Health Service (which did, it's true, come under serious strain in January). That some of our doom-mongering modelers are already catastrophizing about a deadly "third wave" this summer doesn't help either."

For a start not all Brits back lockdowns, which is why there have been demonstrations and repeated gatherings to protest against them.

For the majority who do, some do it because they follow orders, but I suspect the majority back the lockdowns (we are in the 2nd one now) because in spite of what you said earlier, the medical evidence shows lockdowns DO stop the infection spreading so they do prevent thousands of deaths.

Many countries have found that once the lockdown has been lifted, within weeks the infection rates soared again, this time we (UK) already have half the country vaccinated, so God willing that won't happen.

Some EU countries are already seeing a third wave and going into a 3rd lockdown, so I don't see how it can be scaremongering if it's already happening.

Covid doesn't give a shit about freedom. Freedom can't stop Covid.

Maddog wrote:

Cass wrote:Having lived in both countries (and in Europe) in a variety of towns, I would say that I would have much preferred to be in the UK with a hard lockdown and a government that tried their best, in spite of very difficult and sometimes tragic situations, to protect their citizens.

So you need a government to lock yourself down?

No, but you do need a government to lock everyone else down.

Anyway, it's a year today the first lockdown began.
At 12noon ...(almost there) there is a minutes silence for all the people who lost their lives to Covid.
RIP. x

Syl wrote:

Maddog wrote:"But why do Brits back lockdown in the first place? The U.K.'s heightened fear of the virus plays a big role, as does the affinity for our National Health Service (which did, it's true, come under serious strain in January). That some of our doom-mongering modelers are already catastrophizing about a deadly "third wave" this summer doesn't help either."

For a start not all Brits back lockdowns, which is why there have been demonstrations and repeated gatherings to protest against them.

For the majority who do, some do it because they follow orders, but I suspect the majority back the lockdowns (we are in the 2nd one now) because in spite of what you said earlier, the medical evidence shows lockdowns DO stop the infection spreading so they do prevent thousands of deaths.

Many countries have found that once the  lockdown has been lifted, within weeks the infection rates soared again, this time we (UK) already have half the country vaccinated, so God willing that won't happen.

Some EU countries are already  seeing a third wave and going into a 3rd lockdown, so I don't see how it can be scaremongering if it's already happening.

Yes lockdowns work to a degree. But so does herd immunity and vaccines. Lockdowns are also very problematic. There is no need for them at this point. You have done a better job at vaccinating than many EU countries.

Ben Reilly wrote:

Maddog wrote:

So you need a government to lock yourself down?

No, but you do need a government to lock everyone else down.

Ya wohl.

"None of this, unfortunately, has stopped this argument from catching on with a public whose approach to reopening now resembles that old Chinese proverb about the man bitten by a snake being scared of rope. In fact, more than a quarter of Britons say the current reopening plan—stores in April; bars with masks in May; freedom in June—is too quick, even with mass vaccination having driven down our case levels to the second lowest in Europe."