Australian Election

by Irn Bru Sat Jul 02, 2016 1:31 am

Too close to call - according to the press.

The Australian federal election is scheduled to be held on July 2. The opinion polls conducted by various corporate suggest a close call, although market participants expect a win for the Liberal-National coalition. However, markets should be prepared for a surprise, if so, especially after the Brexit win shocked the markets. The extent of minor parties’ seats, both in the House of Representatives and the Senate, is likely to influence the new government’s ability to implement change.

The latest Newspoll, conducted between June 23 and 26, has placed the coalition just ahead of Labor at 51 percent on a two-party preferred basis, down from a peak of 53 percent early this year. Meanwhile, the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, conducted between June 14 to 16 has placed Labor ahead at 51 percent versus the coalition at 49 percent, down from a peak of 56 percent in November last year, according to ANZ report.

http://www.econotimes.com/Australia-election-preview-polls-suggest-result-too-close-to-call-230782

Time we showed an interest in what's happening outside our bubble.

So what's the gen on this then? I've seen it described as a Double Dissolution election but I don't know what that means. Not an Auexit is it?

by veya_victaous Sat Jul 02, 2016 3:34 am

I voted
eating my election cup cakes now (the local school has a stall to raise money)

we had a different voting setup this year which made it easier to give your own preferences.

Subsequently i have voted for a bunch of minor parties (Pirate, Science, Secular, Sex, Indian dude running as independent) then Greens.

by veya_victaous Sat Jul 02, 2016 3:42 am

I think Liberals will win in a close election. there isn't enough disdain for Turnbull to chuck him yet and the slight hope he will get better once elected in his own right.

by veya_victaous Sat Jul 02, 2016 3:46 am

What will be interesting is the senate it is a double dissoultion meanign the whole lot change (normally only half) and a lot of people are understanding the way the senate works since Gillard had a hung parliament and even last election there was a number of minors that saved the day.. Xynophon's profile is very high.

Libs hoped to get rid of the minors but I think it has backfired as i have heard more people saying they are going to vote for a minor party than ever before. Plus a lot of minor parties both left and right are sounding a lot more sensible then either major and a lot have ideas and plans beyond more of the same.

by Ben Reilly Sat Jul 02, 2016 8:04 am

Xenophon deserves it, that man is a class act.

by 'Wolfie Sat Jul 02, 2016 9:15 am

THE Liberal and National parties (the incumbents) suck bigtime...

by 'Wolfie Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:22 am

AND, I did my bit against the Turnbull/Morrison led coalition, earlier today...

Voting for Labor in the House of Rep's; and Greens for tbe Senate..

I suspect that the L-NP could squeek back in with a reduced majority (Boo.. hiss !) -- with Labor gaining around 11 -->> 14 seats across the country (Labor would actually need to win back 24 seats to govern in their own right..) ; and both the Greens and Nick Xenophon's mob picking up more places on the Senate cross-benches.

Perhaps Nick Xenophon will win in that S.A. seat he's chasing, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Greens picked up another seat in the House of Rep's (our 'lower' house..) either -- maybe around inner Melbourne or even Inner Sydney.. alien

by Major Sat Jul 02, 2016 12:24 pm

After the election results are in all the sheep will have gone into hiding.

by veya_victaous Sun Jul 03, 2016 1:48 am

Ben Reilly wrote:Xenophon deserves it, that man is a class act.

he is highly respectable and act as a perfect example of how an independent senator should act.
but still a bit to conservative/christian for me Wink

GO Pirate Party Australian Election 1284863816

by veya_victaous Sun Jul 03, 2016 1:50 am

So votes are still being counted it very close and a number of independents are in, so look more than likely we will have a hung parliament.

which probably favors labour, as most of the independents are LW

by 'Wolfie Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:54 pm

Half a day onwards, and not much further forward...

Could be end of the week before we finally know what the House of Rep's will look like; and 2 or 3 weeks before we see the Senate outcome..
However :

Turnbull looks like being returned as PM, but with a greatly reduced majority -- maybe even a slight minority; which will mean negotiating with the cross-benches;

IF it's close enough, Labor could possibly re-think the option of a coalition with the Greens;

G'Day

The Greens have got a second lower house seat (down in Melbourne), but may yet lose one of their Senate Spots;

Nick Xenophon's Team has got one of their candidates into a Lower House seat, may yet get a second !

Early days yet..

by veya_victaous Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:49 pm

well 6 seats left, going down to the wire. so it will be a few days as they count all the postal votes etc.
6 independants confirmed so far.
they need 76 seats for an majority parliment and currently labour has 71 and Liberal 67.
SO Liberals cannot win a majority gov't. cheers

Labour Could but probably wont win 5 out of the 6 remaining
so Hung parliment
and Labour will have to eat there words(said they wouldn't need a greens alliance) and grovel to the greens.. really they are dumb suggesting they wont make a deal before the election cause now they will find it harder and they are going to be accused of lying.

No one will be able to get all 6 indpenedant on the same side.

by Victorismyhero Mon Jul 04, 2016 5:58 am

another "failed nation" then. Cant elect a stable govt. Looks like we will have to march in and democratise them....

by veya_victaous Mon Jul 04, 2016 7:28 am

Lord Foul wrote:another "failed nation" then. Cant elect a stable govt. Looks like we will have to march in and democratise them....

Umm NO, it is you that doesn't have a stabel gov't at all at the moment Suspect

this is the way it is meant to work.

Why do brits always expect a dictatorship? are you all ready still peons pining for a monarch to worship.

I know I know Debate, discussion and neogtiona is something the British peasent don't beleive should be part of politics

by Victorismyhero Mon Jul 04, 2016 7:54 am

you have had 3 or is it now 4 govts in the past 5 years.... Australian Election 2190311264

by 'Wolfie Mon Jul 04, 2016 8:11 am

Lord Foul wrote:you have had 3 or is it now 4 govts in the past 5 years....

FOUR Prime Ministers in the last 5 (nearly 6..) years...

BUT only one change of government..

From Labor to the Lib'-Nat's coalition in 2013..
Two governments between 2007 and 2016.

We're still nowhere near as bad as Italy or Greece.. Cool

by Original Quill Mon Jul 04, 2016 7:16 pm

Better off than the UK.

by veya_victaous Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:14 am

WhoseYourWolfie wrote:
Lord Foul wrote:you have had 3 or is it now 4 govts in the past 5 years....

FOUR Prime Ministers in the last 5 (nearly 6..) years...

BUT only one change of government..

From Labor to the Lib'-Nat's coalition in 2013..
Two governments between 2007 and 2016.

We're still nowhere near as bad as Italy or Greece..

Wolf is rigth it only PM that changed
only one change of gov't and there might be one now

no result to wednesday at earliest they say.

and of course for Victor to show why the UK is so so backwards and disfunctional compared to Australia

% growth in real per capita GDP from 1995 to 2014, EU-15 countries with some comparisons
Australian Election 2wgpSvJ

Only successful part of the British Isles is the part that is NOT a member of the UK tongue

by veya_victaous Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:09 am

IF YOU want to get an idea of just how close the election is consider that at one point on Friday morning there were just eight votes — that’s right, eight — dividing the main parties. But the Coalition are increasingly confident the election is in the bag.

Indeed, Christopher Pyne was all smiles this morning as he called the narrowest of victories for the Coalition.

The Australian Electoral Commission’s tally this morning has the two party preferred vote at 50 per cent each with just a handful of votes between the Coalition and Labor.

“We have won again. That’s our sixth victory out of eight in the last 20 years,” Mr Pyne declared on Channel 9’s Today this morning. “We will form a majority Government and we’re also making arrangements with some of the crossbenchers for supply and confidence, so we will have a solid Government.”

However, Labor’s Anthony Albanese said, almost a week after the election, the final outcome was still unknown.

“Notwithstanding Christopher’s quite amazing spin there, the election campaign was a disaster for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition.”

With the postal vote count now well under way, the Coalition look to be on track to take 76 seats, the crucial number which means they will be able to form Government in their own right.

When counting closed on Thursday, the Coalition had 73 seats, Labor 66 and the Greens and independents 5, according to the Australian Electoral Commission. Six seats remain in doubt.

Labor holds a slim lead in five of the in-doubt seats. However, the postal votes appear to be falling the Coalition’s way which could give Mr Turnbull the 76 seats he needs.

http://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/federal-election-results-2016-coalition-inches-closer-to-government/news-story/124636eb946dcadb6ad6c82aae696a9c

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