Ashcroft Monday Poll - Labour up 3 points

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 11%, Green 8%

Monday, 23 February, 2015 in The Ashcroft National Poll

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour’s lead is up from one to four points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The party’s 36% share is the highest recorded in the ANP since July, while the UKIP share of 11% is the lowest I have yet found in my national polling. The Conservatives are up two points on 32%, the Liberal Democrats down two at 7%, and the Greens and the SNP unchanged at 8% and 4% respectively.

Despite prompting for UKIP in the main voting intention question at the beginning of 2015, I have generally found lower scores for the party this year than last – indeed UKIP’s share in published polls more generally has drifted down since its height last autumn.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-36-lib-dem-7-ukip-11-green-8/?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=8e00e29956-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-8e00e29956-71656989

The weekly poll from Lord Ashcroft meanwhile has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 8% (tabs here). This is his largest Labour lead of 2015 so far, and UKIP are sharply down – 11 points is the lowest UKIP have recorded in an Ashcroft poll. The online/phone poll contrast in terms of UKIP support seems to be alive and well, with the last three phone polls from MORI, ICM and Ashcroft giving UKIP scores of 9, 9 and 11 respectively, but online polls continuing to show them in the teens.
UPDATE: Here are tonight’s other two polls. ComRes in the Daily Mail have figures of CON 34%(+3), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 13%(-4), GRN 8%(+1). The two point Conservative lead is the largest ComRes have shown since 2010, and their UKIP score is the lowest since last Spring. Meanwhile YouGov in the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%.
Putting today’s four polls together we have one Labour lead, one Tory lead, and two polls showing the parties neck-and-neck – all perfectly in line with normal sample variation around the parties being pretty much neck-and-neck, probably with Labour just ahead. Note the UKIP picture though – all the regular phone polls have them at their lowest score for some time, and 13 points is equal to YouGov’s lowest score for them this year. The trend is difficult to discern given the wide variations between different pollsters, but looking at the average of the February polls so far UKIP do seem to be down slightly.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/