YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour 4 points ahead. Be afraid says Spectator LOL

Just two weeks ago, senior Conservatives were saying that “crossover” had been reached: that the Tories were ahead in the polls and that the lead would slowly build. Last week, the lead evaporated. Tomorrow, a YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour four points ahead. Cameron’s bizarre pre-resignation and a rather lacklustre performance in what passed for the television debate seem to have had an effect. Sure, they were watched by about 3m people – but the word gets out. Jeremy Paxman performed very well, Ed Miliband quite well, Cameron less well. And yes, that’s the Cameron already talking about his retirement, as if he has already mentally checked out.

People in my line of work can sometimes think a natural force of political gravity will pull Cameron over the line; that logic dictates it. That he has been a good Prime Minister, that Ed Miliband is just too daft to make it to No10. Yet there is no data to back this up. The Tories have thrown everything at this for the last five weeks; what makes us think they’ll have more luck in the next five?

So we could be six weeks away from an Ed Miliband government that could last five years.

THANKS A LOT PAXO



And let’s remember a four-point lead for Labour puts it well over the finish line. Using Electoral Calculus system, these results would give Labour a majority of 42. The below calculator was programmed before the SNP insurgency, but Alex Salmond has said he’d support Labour regardless so it may not make much difference.

Of course the campaign is just beginning. Cameron is still ahead on ‘best PM’ and economic competence. No Prime Minister has ever been ahead on those two and gone on to lose the election. But there’s a first time for everything.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/yougovsunday-times-poll-puts-labour-4-points-ahead-be-afraid/


Lets also remember that although Ed's personal standing was way behind Cameron's before the 'debate' that wasn't, it shot up after it, with a large proportion of the undecided deciding on Miliband and not Cameron lol

After the 'debate' :

However, when asked who they thought would make the better PM, 48% said Cameron, 40% Miliband. Now usually on this question, Cameron enjoys a much more significant 15-20 point gap.

Also, among the 8% in the ICM poll that said the debate might change their mind, 56% of these said they would now consider voting Labour, and 30% for the Tories.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/mar/26/election-2015-david-cameron-ed-miliband-jeremy-paxman-live-updates

And to add insult to injury for Tories:

Snap polls after the programme, in which the leaders also took questions from a studio audience, gave victory to Mr Cameron but the full poll conducted over the past two days found that, by a margin of 49% to 34%, those who watched it thought Mr Miliband came across best.

http://news.sky.com/story/1454690/labour-ahead-in-first-poll-since-tv-battle

There are still 6 weeks and 3 more debates however- so anything can happen. I'm still unsure myself exactly which option is better- I fear the Tories without their Liberal restrainers, but I also think change now could endanger the economy, an area Labour have little trust in.

What economy Les, the real one, or the Tory spin.   Don't forget this is what Osborne said before the banking crash in 2007:



All these wonderful jobs that we are supposed to have?   So low paid or zeo hours that the tax revenue has actually gone down.  And his boast that we are the fastest growing economy?




Both from http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015

And the National Debt?

umbers
Gross National Debt
FY 2015* £1.36 trillion
FY 2014 £1.26 trillion
FY 2013 £1.19 trillion
FY 2012 £1.10 trillion
FY 2011 £0.91 trillion
FY 2010 £0.76 trillion
FY 2009 £0.62 trillion
FY 2008 £0.53 trillion

http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_debt_chart.html

Considering the banks were given £1.162 Billion, which raised the debt in 2008 that the Tories haven't had to do!
http://www.nao.org.uk/highlights/taxpayer-support-for-uk-banks-faqs/

Smoke and mirrors, and lies told so many times that people believe them.

We need proper jobs at real pay so tax revues go up instead of down, not a so called recovery based entirely on the housing bubble.

Bumped for Les

The YouGov/Sunday Times poll this morning showed a four point Labour lead, interpreted in some quarters of the commentariat as showing an advance for Labour after the Paxman interviews. As ever, it was only one poll. Now we have a second post-Paxman poll, a ComRes telephone poll for the Daily Mail & ITV, and this one shows the complete opposite – CON 36%(+1), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 12%(+2), GRN 5%(-2) (tabs).

If the four point Labour lead in this morning’s YouGov poll equalled their best this year, this poll is the biggest Conservative lead ComRes have delivered since 2010. Where YouGov showed Miliband’s ratings improving, ComRes show Cameron widening his lead as best Prime Minister.

There is no great mystery here, I expect we’re just seeing normal sample variation. I said this morning we needed to wait for some more polling to have any idea whether the Paxman interviews had really had any effect, whether there was a consistent trend. With two polls now showing movement in opposition directions there certainly isn’t yet. It could still be that the rest of the week’s polls show a similar movement to YouGov and the ComRes poll was just a blip… or that the rest of the week’s polls show a similar movement to ComRes and the YouGov poll was a blip. I’ve a sneaky suspicion though that we’ve just happened to see two outliers in opposite directions, and we’re going to see lots of polls showing no clear movement. Time will tell.


http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/