Another poll shows a huge swing to the YES campaign

by Irn Bru Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:12 am

TNS released their poll this morning and the gap between both camps is now too close to call.
It's jitters all round now as it sinks in that Scotland breaking away from the UK is a real possibility.

Scottish Opinion Monitor: Swing to Yes makes referendum vote too close to call

Poll result here...

http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/scottish-opinion-monitor-swing-yes-makes-referendum-vote-too-close-call

by Guest Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:45 am

Yesterday's Scottish referendum poll conducted by YouGov has caused real panic amongst those supporting the better together campaign after the opinion poll placed the 'Yes' vote in front for the first time. According to YouGov's latest findings, the number of people planning to vote for independence on 18th of this month now rests at 51% while the number of people panning to vote 'No' is 49%.

Due to how close current polls are, many have called the referendum 'too close to call', however, by using polling data from previous democratic processes, it is still likely that going by results of YouGov's latest poll, Scotland will vote in 10 days' time to remain a part of the United Kingdom.

Through looking at historical opinion poll data from previous British votes, it can be seen that how people claim they will vote on polling day can be dramatically different to the actual result. The best example of this is the 1992 general election in which the majority of pollsters predicted a very tight Labour victory; only for the Conservative party to comfortably win the election with a 7.6% lead. Although an inquiry set up by the Market Research Society into why the polls were so wrong found several errors in the way polls were conducted, the British General Election Study 1992, found that many people who had told pollsters that they 'didn't know' who they were going to vote for ended up voting Conservative.

Equally, it was discovered that those who refused to disclose how they planned to vote also disproportionately voted for the Conservative Party. Given the unpopularity of the Conservative government at the time, it likely that many of these 'don't know's or 'prefer not say's did not want to admit that they were considering voting Tory because they feared that the majority would disapprove of their decision.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/dan-falvey/yougov-poll_b_5781448.html

by Irn Bru Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:56 am

I think that the important message coming from the polls is the momentum across most polls that shows the gap has significantly narrowed enough to make the result less likely to be a clear win for the No campaign I still think the No campaign will win but only because enough people will rail back as it kicks in that this severs all the links between the Union forever - not because they think that Scotland can't stand on its own two feet.
The only poll that matters is the one on the 18th so time will tell.

by Guest Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:57 am

Matters little Irn, I think the no vote will win by a margin of between 12-15%, many people will be apprehensive with leaving, and that is what will matter on the day, polls tend to get things generally wrong on the big occasions

by Irn Bru Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:04 am

Didge wrote:Matters little Irn, I think the no vote will win by a margin of between 12-15%, many people will be apprehensive with leaving, and that is what will matter on the day, polls tend to get things generally wrong on the big occasions

Well that's pretty much what I said but what the gap will be remains to be seen.

Gordon Brown gave a powerful speech in defence of the Union at Loanhead miners club here in Midlothian last night and it's the traditional Labour voters that will decide the outcome of this referendum and they know it.

They're the target audience that everyone is after particularly the older generation

by Lone Wolf Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:51 am

I "predict" around 55% for independence, maybe 40-something% for maintaining the status quo....

AND the remaining 2-5% giving a "donkey vote" because they had their mind on the pub, footy or next meal instead.. tongue

by Original Quill Tue Sep 09, 2014 5:15 pm

It is close. Just a few days away.

But even if they lose, they will just schedule the next vote. This has been going on for decades.

by Tommy Monk Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:10 pm

A yes vote will result in enormous financial costs to all with the only winners being the lawyers as years of wrangling is inevitable.

Plus the extra costs involved in setting up all the masses of new Scottish tax payer funded departments that will be required to run the independent govt machine.

All of these costs will immediatly be passed on to the Scottish people in higher taxes, or on to businesses who will either be forced to cut costs (read jobs), or who will be forced out of profitability altogether and close or may just choose to up and leave altogether.

The EU question is still unanswered, join, don't join, or do the people even get a say?

And again at what cost...?

New members have to subscribe to much more than Scotland has already as being part of UK.

All the things that Scots want more of are ultimately going to be at a huge cost and it will ultimately be those in Scotland alone who will be paying for it and will each be much worse off as the inevitable higher taxes are introduced to fund it all.

Add onto that the inevitable rise in interest rates that are looming.....

It is economic madness. Pure and simple.

by Original Quill Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:48 am

Tommy Monk wrote:A yes vote will result in enormous financial costs to all with the only winners being the lawyers as years of wrangling is inevitable.

Plus the extra costs involved in setting up all the masses of new Scottish tax payer funded departments that will be required to run the independent govt machine.

All of these costs will immediatly be passed on to the Scottish people in higher taxes, or on to businesses who will either be forced to cut costs (read jobs), or who will be forced out of profitability altogether and close or may just choose to up and leave altogether.

The EU question is still unanswered, join, don't join, or do the people even get a say?

And again at what cost...?

New members have to subscribe to much more than Scotland has already as being part of UK.

All the things that Scots want more of are ultimately going to be at a huge cost and it will ultimately be those in Scotland alone who will be paying for it and will each be much worse off as the inevitable higher taxes are introduced to fund it all.

Add onto that the inevitable rise in interest rates that are looming.....

It is economic madness. Pure and simple.

Costs...costs...costss. Those costs are gonna cost Scots anyway...the only question is do you want Westminster or Edinburgh to bill ya?

by Irn Bru Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:44 am

Original Quill wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:A yes vote will result in enormous financial costs to all with the only winners being the lawyers as years of wrangling is inevitable.

Plus the extra costs involved in setting up all the masses of new Scottish tax payer funded departments that will be required to run the independent govt machine.

All of these costs will immediatly be passed on to the Scottish people in higher taxes, or on to businesses who will either be forced to cut costs (read jobs), or who will be forced out of profitability altogether and close or may just choose to up and leave altogether.

The EU question is still unanswered, join, don't join, or do the people even get a say?

And again at what cost...?

New members have to subscribe to much more than Scotland has already as being part of UK.

All the things that Scots want more of are ultimately going to be at a huge cost and it will ultimately be those in Scotland alone who will be paying for it and will each be much worse off as the inevitable higher taxes are introduced to fund it all.

Add onto that the inevitable rise in interest rates that are looming.....

It is economic madness. Pure and simple.

Costs...costs...costss. Those costs are gonna cost Scots anyway...the only question is do you want Westminster or Edinburgh to bill ya?

All that ripped to bits with a just a few words. Laughing

Very true. Scots already pay for embassy and consular services via Westminster and we're entitled to a share of the assets already in place.

And shared embassy and consular services between countries are not uncommon - Australia and Canada for example.

http://travel.gc.ca/assistance/emergency-info/consular/framework/canada-australia

by Tommy Monk Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:43 pm

Not ripped to bits at all, was a pretty daft reply and completely missing the point.

At the moment we all pay and share.

In The event of a yes vote, Scotland will have to set up all of it's own separate departments etc.

These will all have to be set up a new

All at huge costs.

Plus the wrangling will go on for years about how to split everything and this will be even more cost.

Lawyers will get very rich, taxpayers will foot the bill through higher taxes.

Either directly onto the public or onto businesses.

Public won't like that and businesdp will be less profitable so will either have to cut jobs or may even just move south altogether.

Then that mean, even higher taxes onto the public.

And didn't address any of The rest of my post.

by nicko Wed Sep 10, 2014 2:07 pm

I f they want to go, let them. I can't understand most of what they say any way!!

by Andy Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:16 pm

I want them to stay. I like a united kingdom. I like Great Britain containing the English, Scots, Welsh and N. Irish.
We are stronger, safer and more financially resilient together.
I do wonder if a whole bunch more power was devolved to Edinburgh how many more No votes it would attract.
A big part of me thinks the Yes campaign is a massive protest against Westminster and how out to of sight and out of mind succession London based governments have become.
I will not let a yes vote cost me the friendship of any of my fine Scottish forum chums such as Irn Bru, JD and TTS.

by Tommy Monk Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:45 pm

Westminster is run by politicians from across the whole UK including Scotlands fair share of representatives.

The only people who will do well out of this is the EU and the lawyers.

Tax rises are inevitable.

This will cost business jobs.

Taxes will have to rise on the people.

The wealthier more mobile people will just move south, meaning more money needed to be raised from fewer.

Hit businesses more and more jobs go and businesses start to leave too.

Meaning even more tax money needed from even less again......

Hollande in France is a prime example of what will happen.

by Irn Bru Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:01 pm

Survation have just released their poll for the Daily Record showing 53% No and 47% Yes which is no change from last month.

I think the undecided will either not vote at all or will vote No because if they are undecided after all this time and all the debates that have been held then they are not convinced enough to vote Yes.

Edit;

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/independence-referendum-exclusive-daily-record-4196976

by Irn Bru Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:10 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:Not ripped to bits at all, was a pretty daft reply and completely missing the point.

At the moment we all pay and share.

In The event of a yes vote, Scotland will have to set up all of it's own separate departments etc.

These will all have to be set up a new

All at huge costs.

Plus the wrangling will go on for years about how to split everything and this will be even more cost.

Lawyers will get very rich, taxpayers will foot the bill through higher taxes.

Either directly onto the public or onto businesses.

Public won't like that and businesdp will be less profitable so will either have to cut jobs or may even just move south altogether.

Then that mean, even higher taxes onto the public.

And didn't address any of The rest of my post.

I ave answered your points over and over again on the other threads and you just keep bringing up the same old questions. The situation is explained regarding embassy and consular services.

So using your logic regarding Scotland leaving the UK you must also campaign against the UK leaving the EU. All these lawyers making a fortune and the haggling that will go on for years. All the companies that will up sticks and move their work overseas to another country who are in the EU and fully intend to stay there. All the uncertainty that it would cause British businesses with trade etc. makes it all look like the argument you are making against Scotland leaving the UK equally applies to the UK leaving the EU.

That's true isn't it?

by Tommy Monk Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:58 pm

No you haven't answered the points properly even once.

And no I'm not talking about Canada and Australia sharing embassy or consular buildings at all.

I'm talking about the whole top to bottom govt departments that Scotland will have to create to run the whole govt machine in an independent Scotland.

The sharing or not of some consular buildings is firstly not agreed and secondly would be a drop in The ocean of financial costs in comparison.

The UK is a 350 year old established and fully functioning UK nation. Sharing a common interest.

The EU is nothing of The sort.

The euro is also ruinous.

by Irn Bru Wed Sep 10, 2014 10:16 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:No you haven't answered the points properly even once.

And no I'm not talking about Canada and Australia sharing embassy or consular buildings at all.

I'm talking about the whole top to bottom govt departments that Scotland will have to create to run the whole govt machine in an independent Scotland.

The sharing or not of some consular buildings is firstly not agreed and secondly would be a drop in The ocean of financial costs in comparison.

The UK is a 350 year old established and fully functioning UK nation. Sharing a common interest.

The EU is nothing of The sort.

The euro is also ruinous.

Already stated that Scotland pays for these services now. Give me some examples of the departments that a Scottish government would have to set up that would cost us more than it does now?

You say now that it's a drop in the ocean so why did you even bother bringing it up? I gave you embassy and consular sharing services as an example that the costs wouldn't necessarily be any higher than the proportion we pay now to Westminster.

Told you already that we wouldn't have to join the Euro and I explained why......remember?

As I said all discussed previously on other threads.

But your logic applies equally to leaving the EU as it does to Scotland leaving the UK.

by Tommy Monk Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:59 pm

Waffle And deliberately missing the points.

Your posting of some wishy washy rubbish does not answer anything.

by Original Quill Thu Sep 11, 2014 4:31 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:Waffle And deliberately missing the points.
Your posting of some wishy washy rubbish does not answer anything.

Well, what does he need to answer? It seems there is nothing left that you have raised.

So Scotland would be better off to go it alone?

by Tommy Monk Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:09 pm

It seems that those who don't want to see things will gloss over them quickly..... and Then pretend to have conclusively addressed things.

It's part of denial....

by Lone Wolf Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:01 pm

TOMMY M. is full of piss and vinegar, and total bullshite...

AS per usual..

NOT a dram of sense anywhere in that total moron !

IF Tommy is against it, then it must be the best outcome for all Scots.. clown

by veya_victaous Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:57 am

by Tommy Monk Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:15 am

I'm not against it as such, just can see that it will not benefit anyone except the lawyers and the EU.

It won't just cost Scotland a fortune but also the rest of UK in legal wrangling etc.

But overall not much will change because the EU currently controls us all and will continue to do so when Scotland re joins the EU straight away.

The Scottish parliament will start levying the taxes instead of UK parliament, and will quickly be hated when the inevitable tax rises are applied.

From the rest of UKs point of view, it will be an end to the barnet formula which is arguably unfair on the rest of UK and gives a subsidy to Scotland.

Plus it will mean 59 less Scottish MPs, overwhelmingly labour, in The UK parliament and less chance of a labour govt ever again!!!

by nicko Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:42 am

Go for it Scotland,just think how well off you'll be when you have to pay for everything your self, and all your Scots MPs will be banished from Westminster and you will have to pay them. Best of all the Tories will have a big majority in Parliament!

by Lone Wolf Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:20 pm

:-:bravo:-:

cheers

::happ:: ::cheerlead:: :::carnbnn::: ::kiltbanan::

::ftlcheer::

by Original Quill Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:18 pm

Lone Wolf wrote::-:bravo:-:

::happ:: ::cheerlead:: :::carnbnn::: ::kiltbanan::

::ftlcheer::

Praise the Lord and remember Mary Stuart!

cheers

Another poll shows a huge swing to the YES campaign 1_123125_2134143_2134148_2151853_061018_lfl_bagpipertn.jpg.CROP.original-original

Another poll shows a huge swing to the YES campaign Draft_lens18768169module154549978photo_1319676065HalloweenScottish

by Original Quill Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:25 pm

nicko wrote:Go for it Scotland,just think how well off you'll be when you have to pay for everything your self, and all your Scots MPs will be banished from Westminster and you will have to pay them. Best of all the Tories will have a big majority in Parliament!

No more Tories. WAYHEY....it just keeps getting better and better.

Another poll shows a huge swing to the YES campaign 0110-1104-2815-0214_happy_little_boy_holding_a_scottish_flag

Another poll shows a huge swing to the YES campaign 0110-1104-2815-0214_happy_little_boy_holding_a_scottish_flag

by Irn Bru Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:56 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:It seems that those who don't want to see things will gloss over them quickly..... and Then pretend to have conclusively addressed things.

It's part of denial....

I haven't glossed over anything in fact I've been quite specific in coming back to you. All I'm asking is that you provide a specific example of what costs we would have to pay in setting up a department and how that would compare with the costs we pay now to the Treasury in Westminster. .

by Irn Bru Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:06 pm

You can't move up here for people coming at you with placards, badges, baloons and stickers. I came out of Morrisons in Gilmerton the other day and there was Johann Lamont, the Scottish Labour leader, and MP Ian Murray and some others who I recognised but couldn't put a name to them.
I'm sure Johann was about to make a bee-line for me with her phone to ask for a selfie so I did a body swerve in the opposite direction and dashed to the motor smartish.

Counting of the postal votes started today and I've done my own poll and the No's have it by a distance. However, a lot has changed since the votes were posted but I doubt the Yes campaign will get the majority they need.

Best laugh of the past few days was Cameron describing his party as 'effin Tories'. Laughing

Roll on Thursday

by Tommy Monk Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:02 pm

Irn Bru wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:It seems that those who don't want to see things will gloss over them quickly..... and Then pretend to have conclusively addressed things.
It's part of denial....
I haven't glossed over anything in fact I've been quite specific in coming back to you. All I'm asking is that you provide a specific example of what costs we would have to pay in setting up a department and how that would compare with the costs we pay now to the Treasury in Westminster. .

You haven't been specific on most of my questions or points...

For example....

I talked about EU....

Join, don't join?

Do Scots get a say on that?

If not, why not?

Surely, as the question is.....

"Should Scotland be an independent country?"

... this goes much deeper than just Scotland/UK, if the people say yes to being an independent country then that also means independent from the EU too!?

I'm sure there are huge numbers of Scots who agree so will they get denied a say and just steamrollered straight into the EU?

And what are the criteria of joining EU as new member of only 5 or so million???

We spoke about new members being required to sign up to and accept all the latest new rules and regulations.... And the euro being one of these conditions.... all you came up with was an article that said the rest of UK might have to rejoin as a new member too and have to lose all current special arrangements as well..... so a lose lose there for both Scotland and the rest of UK...... but no answers to the rest of questions and points...!?

I also said that if Scotland will be financially better off after split with UK, as the yes camp claims (which I seriously doubt).... the EU will see Scotland as this richer and better off country and therefore will expect higher contributions and give less in grants and hand outs in return.... so immediately losing being any better off!!!

Plus being more told what to do by Brussels!!!

This is just one area of my questioning Irn, and with respect, you haven't adequately answered any of it....!

I don't want cheesy salmond/SNP style one liners.

Serious questions, serious answers please.

And please bear in mind that I am all for self determination etc, I have no hidden agenda or alternative angle on this.

I am trying to be totally impartial and objective.

My concerns are From the fact that I don't see any real gain as a result, but loads of uncertainty, upheaval, And inevitably lots more financial costs.

I also have a keen sense of detecting bullshit when I hear it, and salmond is making my bullshit detector go off the scale!!!

by Original Quill Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:12 pm

I think you are trying to fold too much into one question. Should Scotland be an independent country? That is not the question of, Should Scotland be in the EU(?).

I think your anti-EU enthusiasm is causing you to lose sight of the mark.

by Tommy Monk Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:04 pm

Just one part of my question....

What about the rest?

And surely the independence question is broad enough to be about all aspects of independence and self rule/govt/determination...!?

As the argument is about self rule, self governance, self determination.

This is all a myth if still partly/mostly/wholly controlled by EU!

I can imagine those who don't want to be part of a UK union with Westminster deciding for them will be equally if not even more upset by being run by others even further away in EU...!?

Seems a vote for independence just means a vote for less independence, going from being a big part of The UK with big voice, to being a tiny part of EU with increased EU control......

by Original Quill Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:59 am

Tommy Monk wrote:Just one part of my question....

What about the rest?

And surely the independence question is broad enough to be about all aspects of independence and self rule/govt/determination...!?

As the argument is about self rule, self governance, self determination.

This is all a myth if still partly/mostly/wholly controlled by EU!

I can imagine those who don't want to be part of a UK union with Westminster deciding for them will be equally if not even more upset by being run by others even further away in EU...!?

Seems a vote for independence just means a vote for less independence, going from being a big part of The UK with big voice, to being a tiny part of EU with increased EU control......

Going through the above, I see only two questions. One is the EU. As I say, that is a separate question from separation from the UK. Joining the EU is far too important not to consider on its own merits. So, it is important not to confuse it with the question of separation from the UK. In due time, Scots can give all appropriate consideration to this important question. But on it's own...give it the respect it deserves.

Two, is (or has been) the question of costs. You still have yet to articulate what costs are at issue, that are not similarly at issue as a member of the UK. You seem to suggest that start-up costs will be immense, but I doubt they will be that great. Besides, if they exist, they will be a one-time expense. And...many savings will be had because the former UK (Scotland with England, Wales and No. Ireland) has paved the way.

I see a Scotland and a UK working hand-in-hand with one another for general protection and commonwealth of each other...over there on the western edge of Europe. There used to be a Dutch Netherlands and a Spanish Netherlands...now it is Holland and Belgium. They worked, and still work very well together. There's no reason why Scotland and the UK cannot have the same working relationship.

by Tommy Monk Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:36 am

So you're saying that Scottish people will get a say on whether to join the EU or not...?

lol!

Oh no they wont!

They will get more EU and less independence!!!

by Original Quill Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:47 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:So you're saying that Scottish people will get a say on whether to join the EU or not...?

Oh no they wont!

They will get more EU and less independence!!!

First, you are assuming that the EU is a bad thing. I'm not at all convinced of that, especially when it comes to economics. Other things might best be left to the nationalities.

Second, you assume that Scotland will not be a democracy. I'm sure if the Scots feel strongly enough about something, it will be heard. I know my Scottish mum could be heard from one end of the house to the next if something bothered her...lol.

by Tommy Monk Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:16 pm

I'm not assuming the EU is a bad thing, I know it is, especially economically.

If Scotland votes to leave UK then signs straight up to the EU and hands over all it's sovereignty and powers As is The requirement of joining, then it will hardly be a democracy, especially If this is done without the permission of The Scottish people.

by Andy Sun Sep 14, 2014 9:03 pm

Bit of a rarity on here, but I agree with Tommy.

I posted a similar set of questions a few days ago on JD's forum, and it has provoked a fascinating and intelligent debate. The fact remains that neither the yes nor no campaign have access to ALL of the facts in order to make an informed decision.
Probably because there are too many variables from each argument to give definitive factual answers.
Better the devil you know rather than a leap of faith into a very unknown place.

by Tommy Monk Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:53 pm

Thank you for that handy Andy,

I'm sure if you listened more to the reasoning and logic behind my arguments and actually gave what I say more rational and independent thought you would agree a lot more.

Notice my questions have still remained completely unanswered.

The whole question "do you think Scotland should be an independent country" is complete double speak.

It is very clever in design, and strongly provoking a 'yes' answer on many levels.

Of course most people across the world would agree that any country should be independent with the people having the right to self governance and self determination.

The question also implies that Scotland currently isn't an independent country with these things, essentially under some sort of oppressive controlling dictatorship and a yes vote is a choice for freedom from this, and something everyone would choose for themselves and support for others.

And of course the question will tug hard at the heart strings of all Scottish people who we know are some of The proudest and resolute in The world when it comes to national identity and love of The country.

But what is being asked, and what a yes vote will deliver is totally different from what the question implies.

This is why I say the question is classic 'double speak'.

A vote for yes is actually a vote for less as Scotland will immediatly be signed up to the EU, as a new member with all the latest rules and regulations required, including having to have the euro.

The rest of UK, of which Scotland currently IS an integral and fundamental foundation of and instrumental in governing and deciding the running of The UK as a whole will also be substantially weakened and may also have to rejoin the EU as a new member too as Irn has already suggested.

This would be an ideal time to have a referendum on the EU, technically out and facing rejoin with much tougher control and even less sovereignty, but we all know that the lib lab con SNP will just sign us all up in an instant first and then waffle us all off about getting out later......

This is The plan..... more EU.... less UK....

Do you really want to be an independent country???

The type of independent country you would support others in having???

Well vote to stick together as UK and then we all vote to get out the EU after!!!!

by veya_victaous Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:22 am

Plenty of people have been weighing in on the debate, and the latest comes in cartoon form. The Simpsons' Groundskeeper Willie gave his two cents on the impending vote, before throwing his Balmoral bonnet into the ring as a potential leader. After all he has lived in America most his life so he's "seen first hand how not to run a country".

It's up to you Scotland, "Aye or Die".

by Ben Reilly Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:02 am

Everything I've seen recently points to a likely No vote, according to YouGov ...

by Original Quill Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:51 am

This morning's London Times poll gave it 51% Aye, 49% Nae. What? Only 4 days now?

by Frazzled Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:44 am

The Yes campaign are very vociferous in their views and very anti anyone who says they will be voting No. In an interview yesterday some of the people who had openly said they were going with the No vote had eggs and bricks thrown at their windows. I believe that many say Yes but when it comes to putting their cross in the voting booth will vote No. The future for an independent Scotland is not at all clear. Better the devil you know and all that, plus all main parties have promised that more power will be given to Scotland if we stay together. I think it will be a NO vote.

by Irn Bru Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:28 am

Tommy Monk wrote:
Irn Bru wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:It seems that those who don't want to see things will gloss over them quickly..... and Then pretend to have conclusively addressed things.
It's part of denial....
I haven't glossed over anything in fact I've been quite specific in coming back to you. All I'm asking is that you provide a specific example of what costs we would have to pay in setting up a department and how that would compare with the costs we pay now to the Treasury in Westminster. .

You haven't been specific on most of my questions or points...

For example....

I talked about EU....

Join, don't join?

Do Scots get a say on that?

If not, why not?

Surely, as the question is.....

"Should Scotland be an independent country?"

... this goes much deeper than just Scotland/UK, if the people say yes to being an independent country then that also means independent from the EU too!?

I'm sure there are huge numbers of Scots who agree so will they get denied a say and just steamrollered straight into the EU?

And what are the criteria of joining EU as new member of only 5 or so million???

We spoke about new members being required to sign up to and accept all the latest new rules and regulations.... And the euro being one of these conditions.... all you came up with was an article that said the rest of UK might have to rejoin as a new member too and have to lose all current special arrangements as well..... so a lose lose there for both Scotland and the rest of UK...... but no answers to the rest of questions and points...!?

I also said that if Scotland will be financially better off after split with UK, as the yes camp claims (which I seriously doubt).... the EU will see Scotland as this richer and better off country and therefore will expect higher contributions and give less in grants and hand outs in return.... so immediately losing being any better off!!!

Plus being more told what to do by Brussels!!!

This is just one area of my questioning Irn, and with respect, you haven't adequately answered any of it....!

I don't want cheesy salmond/SNP style one liners.

Serious questions, serious answers please.

And please bear in mind that I am all for self determination etc, I have no hidden agenda or alternative angle on this.

I am trying to be totally impartial and objective.

My concerns are From the fact that I don't see any real gain as a result, but loads of uncertainty, upheaval, And inevitably lots more financial costs.

I also have a keen sense of detecting bullshit when I hear it, and salmond is making my bullshit detector go off the scale!!!

First of all you are way ahead of yourself as no-one really knows exactly how things would pan out in respect of a yes vote - things have to be negotiated.

The SNP have firmly nailed their colours to the mast on being in the EU. It's fundamental to their way ahead so if people don't want to be in the EU then they should just vote No and be left to take their chances with Cameron's referendum if he gets re-elected. Asking the electorate about being in the EU at this stage in a referendum is just ridiculous because no-one knows whether Scotland will become independent anyway and that has to be decided first before anything can happen.

And you fail to understand that if there is a Yes vote then there will be a period of negotiations followed by a general election here in Scotland to elect a new government and every single party will be able to put forward their candidates including Labour, the Tories, LibDems, the Greens, UKIP if the they wish and also any other party that wants to come up with a manifesto to take Scotland out of the EU or not sign up to be in it can stand as well. There is no ground swell of support in Scotland for the UK to leave the EU and as I have said already it won't happen anyway unless UKIP gets in and that is highly unlikely, isn't it.

As far as costs are concerned, I have asked you to come up with specific examples of what the costs are to Scotland in what we contribute to Westminster now and what we would pay if we were to be an independent country. So far I haven't seen any.

by Irn Bru Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:31 am

Frazzled wrote:The Yes campaign are very vociferous in their views and very anti anyone who says they will be voting No. In an interview yesterday some of the people who had openly said they were going with the No vote had eggs and bricks thrown at their windows. I believe that many say Yes but when it comes to putting their cross in the voting booth will vote No. The future for an independent Scotland is not at all clear. Better the devil you know and all that, plus all main parties have promised that more power will be given to Scotland if we stay together. I think it will be a NO vote.

Works both ways and the Yes campaign had a stand at Tynecastle promoting their campaign and they were attacked by people including actual assault.

The No vote will win anyway.

by Frazzled Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:53 am

Which way will you be voting Irn?

by Tommy Monk Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:18 pm

Clearly still flapping around over the EU and implications....

And I am talking about costs in setting up the many levels of govt and a new Scottish civil service dealing with all the necessary levels of bureaucracy that will be required to oversea and control everything.

And I'm sure this will involve a whole load of new quangos and regulators etc.

You are trying to argue that Scotland pays for all this already but this is only a small part of an already existing network of UK infrastructure.

Scotland will have to set up all new Scottish only layers And the inevitable huge start up costs.

by Original Quill Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:57 pm

I don't see the costs of start-up as being that big a deal. Scotland already has a government, and all offices of services up and down.

Personally, I think it would be exciting to see Scotland as a revived country, and it would be a start at restoration. On the other hand, Scotland and England are the two big dogs over there. It would be sad to see them separate.

However, their interests are so separate. England is way too conservative.

by Tommy Monk Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:09 pm

Scotland has a small govt and small civil service bureaucracy behind it doing a really number of things...... And already at enormous cost!!!!!

Lord Barnet has now called forthe barnet formula to be scrapped as it is grossly unfair and 'subterfuge'.

by Tommy Monk Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:44 pm

Just watching salmond on bbc 1 Dimbleby, salmond was going on about how England is Scotlands biggest trading partner and how Scotland is Englands second biggest trading partner and how important it is that we get along with things continuing to run smoothly.......

Sounds like he just made the most conclusive argument I've heard so far for us all to stay as the UK!!!!

And then we have Nicola Sturgeon keep popping up with her waffle which is just a mixture of misleading false claims and emotively charged sound bites.

Just heard her again claim that independence is needed to protect the health service, which is not only receiving ever increasing spending budget but where in Scotland they also already enjoy free prescriptions as does Wales, while in England people have to still pay prescription charges.

Plus it is The Scottish govt who are already in complete control of The NHS there anyway!!!!

So her waffle about how independence is needed to protect the NHS is just a complete lie!!!

The rest of her carefully scripted and rehearsed one liners are devoid of any real answers/facts/truth/reality/relevance but are purely designed to provoke the Scots into a yes vote, into reaction, by constantly repeating how it is 'those south of The border, 'The London govt', 'the distant Westminster parliament' etc, equivalent to a foreign dictatorship, who are unfairly and wrongfully controlling Scotland and telling them what to do.

Interestingly both salmond and sturgon are named after fish and both slippery as fish too!!!

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