Nigel Farage has bottled his by-election chance, and Ukip is over

First topic message reminder :

After Nigel Farage blew up his rocket on the launch pad at 8.05 this morning, today’s Prime Minister’s Questions became more important and less interesting.
But first let us pay our respects to the late UK Independence Party. It had a good run. There is a bit of fun still to be had. Today we have already had two opinion polls suggesting that it is going to win the largest share of votes in the European Parliament elections on 22 May by some margin. Ukip is nine or 11 points ahead with three weeks still to go, which has the makings of a landslide.

It may seem perverse to suggest, therefore, that the party is over. But I suggest that this is precisely what it is. Done with, finished, a footnote.

By failing to seize the party’s one chance to win a by-election, Farage has blown it. Not that “it” was ever a very good chance. Farage bottled the Newark by-election because he didn’t think he would win it. And if he couldn’t win it, there is no one else in Ukip who could. The best chance of achieving the “breakthrough” that is the holy grail for protest parties, which in this case would mean a handful of MPs at the next general election, would have been to establish the credibility of a bridgehead in the House of Commons before the general election.

I think we can now take it that Ukip will win one MP at the next election at most. That one MP might be Farage, standing in a Kent seat such as Folkestone, where he has connections, members and organisation. He would then be the Caroline Lucas of the next parliament and Ukip would fade away, apart from its large numbers of troublesome MEPs in the European Parliament.

The thing is that Ukip faces a challenge to its reason for existing after the next general election, whatever the result. If Cameron wins, he is committed to a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU in 2017, after which Ukip would have little purpose. If Ed Miliband wins, the Conservative Party in opposition is likely to become several degrees more Eurosceptic. Boris Johnson only this week restated his view that, if Cameron could not secure better terms of EU membership, he would vote to leave. Again, the need for a separate anti-EU party will be greatly diminished. And if the Liberal Democrats, through some tragic accident of the arithmetic, should find themselves out of government, there would not even be the need for a separate protest party any more.

So that is it, I think. There will be a lot of fizz, smoke and carousel music, but in three weeks’ time the Great Ukip Flying Circus will be in decline. Big social trends are against it. The economy is looking up, and people mind less about free movement of workers when they feel better off. Scepticism about the EU has ebbed. YouGov now consistently finds that, even if there were a referendum now on existing terms of membership, people would vote to stay in.

Which left us with Prime Minister’s Questions. Back to politics as usual. The Ukip-free House of Commons debated the sale of the Royal Mail. Miliband complained about “a rip-off of taxpayers”. Cameron responded with a history lesson, quoting Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock on 1980s privatisations.

Miliband had a good argument and an effective debating point, quoting Brian Binley, the Tory chairman of the Business select committee, who had described the way the sell-off was managed as “unethical” and who was nodding in agreement on the back-benches behind Cameron’s blind spot.

Cameron had a reasonable argument - Labour had tried to sell the Royal Mail and this government had succeeded - and an effective diversionary tactic, pointing out that Miliband dared not mention the economy, jobs or the deficit, because they were all coming good.

The Prime Minister could not say what he really thought, which was that Vince Cable might have been taken for a fast one by some of those spivs in the City, but that the risks of failing to unload the shares onto the market were worse than those of seeing them snapped up and a rise in price, showing an instant profit.

But those are the sort of calculations that government politics are all about, the sort of thing that Ukip would like to wish away. Returning to real politics will be duller, but more important.


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nigel-farage-has-bottled-his-byelection-chance-and-ukip-is-over-9308526.html


Interesting to see someone saying as I have been saying.


So enjoy the EU election wins, it will be the only point UKIP supporters have to look forward to.

smelly_bandit wrote:

Didge wrote:


The reality is you say that now, but back then you really believed they did, we all remember smelly, you and others shouting from the roof tops to then crawl away embarrassed afterwards.

I told you what happens in General elections, and people always turn to money/economy over everything else when it comes to the crunch and in time you will see this and the electorate even more when UKIP manifesto is released later on. Looking good and speaking well does not win an election on its on, you need viable policies, and UKIP has little

yes didge you are well known for "remembering things" that no one else does ::D:: 

you can argue whatever you want, what you cannot argue against however is that the UKIP are making a name for themselves, whether this turns into votes or not remains to be seen  

put it this way

if you really didn't care and weren't that bothered then you wouldn't be so active in promoting negative stories about them

Yes thy will make a name for winning EU seats whilst when they are there doing very little and then crash and burn at the general election.


Cannot wait

 ::D:: 

I am not worries, I just love watching UKIP supporters get so excited and post articles to see them get all flustered as you do now

 ::D:: 

Didge wrote:

smelly_bandit wrote:

yes didge you are well known for "remembering things" that no one else does ::D:: 

you can argue whatever you want, what you cannot argue against however is that the UKIP are making a name for themselves, whether this turns into votes or not remains to be seen  

put it this way

if you really didn't care and weren't that bothered then you wouldn't be so active in promoting negative stories about them

Yes thy will make a name for winning EU seats whilst when they are there doing very little and then crash and burn at the general election.


Cannot wait

 ::D:: 

I am not worries, I just love watching UKIP supporters get so excited and post articles to see them get all flustered as you do now

 ::D:: 

youre not worried

sure pal

you are more worried than we are optimistic

smelly_bandit wrote:

Didge wrote:


Yes thy will make a name for winning EU seats whilst when they are there doing very little and then crash and burn at the general election.


Cannot wait

 ::D:: 

I am not worries, I just love watching UKIP supporters get so excited and post articles to see them get all flustered as you do now

 ::D:: 

youre not worried

sure pal

you are more worried than we are optimistic

If I was worried smelly I would be moving to Ireland, which shows how little you know, because if I thought for one moment they had a realistic chance of winning I would move, because within a year there would be mass riots from the mass unemployment that would follow.

Hence I am not worried at all, but I do love seeing people get their hopes up over a clueless party, when they are prejudiced like you and jump on the bandwagon and it is people like you that will spell their death sentence, which I have stated so many times before. UKIP have many decent supporters, but they have attracted many bad ones also.

Didge wrote:

smelly_bandit wrote:

youre not worried

sure pal

you are more worried than we are optimistic

If I was worried smelly I would be moving to Ireland, which shows how little you know, because if I thought for one moment they had a realistic chance of winning I would move, because within a year there would be mass riots from the mass unemployment that would follow.

Hence I am not worried at all, but I do love seeing people get their hopes up over a clueless party, when they are prejudiced like you and jump on the bandwagon and it is people like you that will spell their death sentence, which I have stated so many times before. UKIP have many decent supporters, but they have attracted many bad ones also.

sure pal

I just hope UKIP fail to get elected or we are all in trouble.

Those people just don't know what they are doing.  and they ARE bigoted,despite them wailing otherwise.

The Lenny Henry comment,the 'gay floods'...there are genuine nuts in the part and genuine nuts supporting them as a result.I do sympathise with more moderate UKIP supporters because they are being manipulated with scare mongering tactics.

FluffyBunny wrote:I just hope UKIP fail to get elected or we are all in trouble.

Those people just don't know what they are doing.  and they ARE bigoted,despite them wailing otherwise.

The Lenny Henry comment,the 'gay floods'...there are genuine nuts in the part and genuine nuts supporting them as a result.I do sympathise with more moderate UKIP supporters because they are being manipulated with scare mongering tactics.

there you go again with your holier than thou judgment

FluffyBunny wrote:I just hope UKIP fail to get elected or we are all in trouble.

Those people just don't know what they are doing.  and they ARE bigoted,despite them wailing otherwise.

The Lenny Henry comment,the 'gay floods'...there are genuine nuts in the part and genuine nuts supporting them as a result.I do sympathise with more moderate UKIP supporters because they are being manipulated with scare mongering tactics.

To be fair without Farage the nutters wouldn't get a slither of the attention they do. He bumbles between UKIP wanting to making an impact; having policy, having no policy yet; not being aware of what his party thinks; bringing up his 2010 manifesto then writing it off... but he is a very sly propagandist, knows how to appears in the right places and say the right things- some suckers will buy it of course, and enough will vote UKIP in the Euro elections JUST to make a statement of discontent to the government- same as they did with both UKIP and the BNP in 2009.

*Ben should bookmark this thread- just so we can all laugh when the serious politics shifts UKIP back to the margins next year   

Serious politics?

More EU, more immigration, more of the same....



Yeah, right!



Watching lib lab con desperately trying to appear different, when in reality they are all the same.



Vote UKIP if you want democracy, the right to self determination, out of EU, and regain control on our borders!

I put this in the Racist topic, probably the wrong place, so here it is again:

UKIP believes that immigration should be controlled by the UK government and not the EU. Migrants of all origins should have the right to apply to live and work in the UK and be entitled to equality of treatment secured by a points-based system without positive discrimination for those from EU member states. UKIP has never sought to abolish immigration, encourage repatriation, apportion blame or attack migrants or their families.Increasingly UKIP members are becoming subject to physical and verbal abuse. Members from minority backgrounds who have faced genuine racist abuse are now abused by our opponents. Many have also suffered the humiliation of being called “Uncle Toms” or apologists for a racist party. This level of abuse is unacceptable in a modern democracy. We call on all those who wish to have a mature debate on immigration to cease perpetuating the falsehood that UKIP is “racist”, its members “xenophobic”. We demand opponents no longer engage in physical or verbal abuse and support UKIP in fighting to rid politics of racism, discrimination and sectarianism.

Agree stardesk.

stardesk wrote:I put this in the Racist topic, probably the wrong place, so here it is again:

UKIP believes that immigration should be controlled by the UK government and not the EU. Migrants of all origins should have the right to apply to live and work in the UK and be entitled to equality of treatment secured by a points-based system without positive discrimination for those from EU member states. UKIP has never sought to abolish immigration, encourage repatriation, apportion blame or attack migrants or their families.Increasingly UKIP members are becoming subject to physical and verbal abuse. Members from minority backgrounds who have faced genuine racist abuse are now abused by our opponents. Many have also suffered the humiliation of being called “Uncle Toms” or apologists for a racist party. This level of abuse is unacceptable in a modern democracy. We call on all those who wish to have a mature debate on immigration to cease perpetuating the falsehood that UKIP is “racist”, its members “xenophobic”. We demand opponents no longer engage in physical or verbal abuse and support UKIP in fighting to rid politics of racism, discrimination and sectarianism.

They are not racist, but certainly are very much xenophobic Stardesk by using scare tactics promoted for example last year about Romanians and Bulgarians, that is promoting a fear of them, which is very much xenophobic.
So it is fine to spin policies, what they say shows different stardesk

Nothing wrong with highlighting the truth about how our borders have been opened up to half a billion Europeans to come as they please.....

Tommy Monk wrote:Nothing wrong with highlighting the truth about how our borders have been opened up to half a billion Europeans to come as they please.....

Truth?

So using scare tactics unsubstantiated is telling the truth now, odd, claiming Romanians are criminals collectively, stating they will all come millions of them on Jan 1st.
Well it is may and millions still reside in Romania

And loads here too

Tommy Monk wrote:And loads here too

Loads of prejudice idiots here to, but we the majority are tolerant of them too.

Didge my friend, why do you class the truth and facts as scare mongering?'  Farage has, and is, highlighting problems that our country faces, more so than lib/lab/con.

Sometimes it takes courage to speak the truth, even in the face of denial and name-calling. Someone needed to do it, and Farage had the courage. Good on him.

When Milly Bland (lol) was interviewed on telly yesterday, he was asked if Labour would hold a referendum on EU in or out. He just couldn't give a straight answer, but just waffled and flustered and skirted round answering directly.

stardesk wrote:Didge my friend, why do you class the truth and facts as scare mongering?'  Farage has, and is, highlighting problems that our country faces, more so than lib/lab/con.

Sometimes it takes courage to speak the truth, even in the face of denial and name-calling. Someone needed to do it, and Farage had the courage. Good on him.

When Milly Bland (lol) was interviewed on telly yesterday, he was asked if Labour would hold a referendum on EU in or out. He just couldn't give a straight answer, but just waffled and flustered and skirted round answering directly.

Sorry what truths, I am a student of history Stardesk and I know poor lies when I see them or exaggeration to promote fear in people, you yourself are a cultural pessimist, which is in itself a fear of change and that you do not want to move along with that change of which we have seen countless times in this country. We once had rock and roll music with people claiming the dancing was a deviant and that it would turn young people into crime, do you remember that? Were they right on these fears? No

The fact you think he speaks the truth is disappointing when he does not on many points not only about the EU, but on how he promotes fears about 26 million EU unemployed all want your jobs, really? Why are they not all here then Stardesk?
The fact is most people are being easily led over claims to the EU and much of what he states is incorrect as pointed out countless times, that is the sad reality of how some people are easily swayed, no offense

Didge, I'm not afraid of change, not in the least, I've seen and encompassed many changes in my lifetime. But of course, there are changes I, and many people don't like, such as an open door policy, which leads me on to something you said about unemployed migrants wanting our jobs. There are approximately 2 million unemployed in Britain, (or England, I'm not sure which.) There is an instability within our own indigenous communities due to unemployment. Many people are hard up and struggling, the food banks are at a push to find enough to go round. The NHS is also being used and abused by migrants and those who come here just to get free medical treatment.
Unemployed figures have, recently, been seen to be coming down, which the government bleat on about, but that's during spring, summer, and autumn. Labour is wanted in the building and farming industries, as well as other more seasonal jobs. If migrants weren't employed, but our own people instead, then some stability would return, and the benefits coffers wouldn't be over-used, thus saving the country, that's we tax payers, a lot of money.

There are other issues I could go on about but let the above suffice for now. I look forward to a response.

stardesk wrote:Didge, I'm not afraid of change, not in the least, I've seen and encompassed many changes in my lifetime. But of course, there are changes I, and many people don't like, such as an open door policy, which leads me on to something you said about unemployed migrants wanting our jobs. There are approximately 2 million unemployed in Britain, (or England, I'm not sure which.) There is an instability within our own indigenous communities due to unemployment. Many people are hard up and struggling, the food banks are at a push to find enough to go round. The NHS is also being used and abused by migrants and those who come here just to get free medical treatment.
Unemployed figures have, recently, been seen to be coming down, which the government bleat on about, but that's during spring, summer, and autumn. Labour is wanted in the building and farming industries, as well as other more seasonal jobs. If migrants weren't employed, but our own people instead, then some stability would return, and the benefits coffers wouldn't be over-used, thus saving the country, that's we tax payers, a lot of money.

There are other issues I could go on about but let the above suffice for now. I look forward to a response.

Read your post again, it is full of contradictions.
You are not afraid of change, even though immigration brings change which you are moaning about using change as your reason.
What you fail to understand is that people not wanting to do certain jobs led to companies hiring immigrants, of which if this had not happened companies would not be needing to need people to fill jobs many British people did not want, something you neglect. Unemployment has gone hugely down in just over a year and vastly to British born people, but again everyone can apply for a role, it is companies that employ people, thus to blame immigrants applying to better their life's with a job here, to then bemoan an open door policy, of which I agree it should be controlled but would have also made this country lose business, based on the reality firms could not run here having to pay higher wages. This and many points you do not understand of which Nigel does not tell you or about how many of these companies are foreign with already other plants or places abroad.
What you have to ask yourself is you claim rightly there is labour wanted in industries, then why have they not been filled with Brits? Anyone can apply or do the measure necessary to do these jobs? It is not because of immigrants that some Brits do not want to do these jobs and how a decade of a benefit culture led to some thinking they would be better off not working. You see things only in black and white and not the wider picture of what creates these problems and blaming immigrants for being given jobs, is not their faullt, hence why UKIP is clueless to the business industry

Hey Stars, many people have issues with the open door policy..I certainly do..as you say our NHS is used and abused and immigration needs to be tackled no doubt,mew can only cope with so many immigrants, I understand that...

But it's the way immigrants are treated by some and the racism shown to them..they are already here, so it wouldn't be the right thing to tell them to eff off, as some on the right have done..

Surely we do to want to be seen as a hateful nation?..

I understand some do come here to abuse our hospitality and benefits ..and this is why I agree with a strict points system as well as immigrants being required to have funds to fully support themselves ...

But I think there has to be exceptional circumstances like orphaned children etc..Stars,of we don't help them who will?...

But the greed and abusing our hospitality has to end by some..bit other immigrants bring skills here with them, like those in the medical field.

I don't think there is anyone on here who wants immigrants to come here simply to live off the taxpayer.

I have no problem with anyone in particular from any country, what I do have a problem with is the increasing lack of control we have over our own country and borders.



And then being told by lib lab con 'progressives' that to want these controls is somehow racist xenaphobic and wrong.



It seems our elected representatives have forgotten that they are supposed to voice our opinion, not us who are supposed to be doing what they say.