Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week

First topic message reminder :

Summarizing from several sources I've read tonight, Boris Johnson is expected to announce Monday a second national UK lockdown, starting Wednesday and lasting until December 1. It will likely leave only essential shops and educational environments open.

I never thought, back in March, that there would still be no end in sight!

Tommy Monk wrote:

Syl wrote:

The death figures quoted throughout are extra deaths caused from the coronavirus.....so add them on to your expected annual death total.

It's already been said that that the evidence now is people can be reinfected as immunity only lasts a few months, so that put's paid to your herd immunity theory.

No... Antibody levels may well drop a bit a few months after infection, nothing unusual in that,  but that doesn't mean you no longer have any resistance to it, plus immune system is still primed to deal with it as it has fought it off before .. and there have only been a handful of suspected reinfection cases, most likely already quite ill people with very low immune systems or testing errors...


There are millions of people in UK suffering from lockdowns... The cure cannot be allowed to be worse than the disease ..

This virus has only been around for a few months, so unless you have more knowledge than the scientists you have no idea how the reinfection rate will pan out....or how effective (or not) herd immunity would be.

I understand you are suffering financially, so are millions of others, including me, but we all have to look at the bigger picture, and at the moment lives are more important than money.

Vintage wrote:Its not just about the death rate though is it. Its also about hospitals being inundated by sick people with people with other health issues not being treated, its about medical workers getting ill and not able to work, its about other workers not being able to do their jobs, factories closed because some people have the , transport in general. This virus passes so easily if left alone it could do as much damage as a lockdown.
Do you know for sure that you and all the other people you want to carry on as normal don't have underlying health problems, are you sure it wouldn't be so bad if you caught it  

It's already happening here Vintage, I posted this before.



"Some local hospitals here are saying there are now less ICU beds available now than there were at the height of the pandemic.

People in greater Manchester were told over the weekend to not ring 999 unless it was a matter of life or death as they were under so much pressure they couldn't cope."


Without action this will get worse every week, and obviously it wont be confined to the north.

Does your government print actual numbers in the area and hospital beds available?

We have a county health department where we can look these things up.

No need for listening to "some local hospitals are saying....."

Maddog wrote:Does your government print actual numbers in the area and hospital beds available?

We have a county health department where we can look these things up.  

No need for listening to "some local hospitals are saying....."

I would rather hear it from the actual hospital admin and medical staff directly than from government figures, which probably come from London anyway.

It's also reported in the press if you don't believe the nurses who have regular spots on local radio.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-full

Maddog wrote:Does your government print actual numbers in the area and hospital beds available?

We have a county health department where we can look these things up.

No need for listening to "some local hospitals are saying....."

This gov link shows lots of data sets and you can search areas too.


https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

Sorry Syl, repeating what you've already posted. I heard many hospitals are already on the brink. Our local hospital isn't that big and it serves a fair sized community we had a doctor from there on our local news this morning, she said its already worse than the first time around. We had about 24 deaths from the virus over three days so far and about a hundred ill enough to be in hospital. We had got down to no deaths from it.
There seems to be almost as many opinions as scientists out there.

Vintage wrote:Sorry Syl, repeating what you've already posted. I heard many hospitals are already on the brink. Our local hospital isn't that big and it serves a fair sized community we had a doctor from there on our local news this morning, she said its already worse than the first time around. We had about 24 deaths from the virus over three days so far and about a hundred ill enough to be in hospital. We had got down to no deaths from it.
There seems to be almost as many opinions as scientists out there.

No dont apologise.
We live in different parts of the country and the evidence is that this is happening all over.
We are being warned here that the NHS wont be able to cope if the 2nd wave is as bad as the first.....and the scientific predictions are, if this lockdown doesn't control it, the 2nd wave will definately be worse.

What lockdown...?


I went out earlier, roads were chocka block, local school kids everywhere and usual amount of parents and their cars outside, loads of people about everywhere else, was a queue coming out of the firework shop up the road from me, everything looked pretty much the same as it has been recently except for a few pubs are now closed and the bookies are all closed...

Wow.  You guys are worse off than us, I guess.  All we have is reports on the news about how bad it's going.  The thing I see around the map is the ones getting hit hardest by this wave of virus are the areas correlated with RW politics...the south, rural areas, and states like Florida, Missouri, Iowa, the Dakotas--the list goes on.

They are the states that followed Trump's cavalier approach to throw caution to the wind, go out and dance, visit, shop, mingle and party, party and party.  Poetic justice, I suppose, but rarely does justice work so swiftly and with such surgical precision.  Rarely do we get to see, so graphically, how Darwin's theory really works.

I'm reminded of the story of the three lil pigs, and how one piggy built a house of straw, one piggy built a house of sticks, but the last piggy put in the work and built a solid house of bricks.  Only the last house stood up to the big, bad wolf: only those who took precautions during this pandemic have stood up to the big, bad bug.

Tommy Monk wrote:


What lockdown...?


I went out earlier, roads were chocka block, local school kids everywhere and usual amount of parents and their cars outside, loads of people about everywhere else, was a queue coming out of the firework shop up the road from me, everything looked pretty much the same as it has been recently except for a few pubs are now closed and the bookies are all closed...

There is a lockdown, I didn't say that many idiots wont be flaunting it though.....which is the very reason many businesses have had to close again.

Re the 2nd lockdown.
For us in Manchester it's not that much different than from being in Tier 3, so we are used to it.
Most shops, apart from those selling food and other essential items will be closed, oddly garden centres will remain open, obviously minus their cafes.

Not having people visit in your home and garden is still the same, which is imo the biggest wrench, I will forget what my son looks like at this rate.

We don't hear much about China these days, apparently there have been no deaths there for the first time in three months, any infected people are from outside China.???
If everyone had closed their borders or at least as much as possible for a month or two could we have contained this virus and now be back to normal? The UK and Ireland were in a good position to stop all incoming traffic except for controlled necessities.

Vintage wrote:We don't hear much about China these days, apparently there have been no deaths there for the first time in three months, any infected people are from outside China.???
If everyone had closed their borders or at least as much as possible for a month or two could we have contained this virus and now be back to normal? The UK and Ireland were in a good position to stop all incoming traffic except for controlled necessities.

It didn't arrive here end Jan/beginning Feb... It arrived here Nov 2019 or possibly even a few weeks earlier...

Daily positive test results are still about the same at just over 20,000..

I agree with you Tommy, it was here in 2019, I know a few people relatives included, who had it or something incredibly similar in November and December, they weren't taken into hospital but they were very ill with it, some had to sit in the shower to benefit from the steam to breath.

Vintage wrote:I agree with you Tommy, it was here in 2019,  I know a few people  relatives included, who had it or something incredibly similar in November and December, they weren't taken into hospital but they were very ill with it, some had to sit in the shower  to benefit from the steam to breath.

Apparently, those are the asymptomatic.  The asymptomatic ones literally hide the virus, because they don't even know they are sick.  Until hospital cases and deaths started happening, Covid-19 went unnoticed, maybe for months.  It's a simple case of: we don't know what we don't know.

So Covid-19 could have arrived in the West back in mid-2019, anywhere from April to August, and we just weren't aware of it.  This coincided with the conservatives wave of deregulation, including the dismantling of the Pandemic Response Team, set up by the Obama/Biden administration, which would have caught it sooner.

Talking crap again quill... The genetic origin in humans has been identified as being sept 2019.

Original Quill wrote:

Vintage wrote:I agree with you Tommy, it was here in 2019,  I know a few people  relatives included, who had it or something incredibly similar in November and December, they weren't taken into hospital but they were very ill with it, some had to sit in the shower  to benefit from the steam to breath.

Apparently, those are the asymptomatic.  The asymptomatic ones literally hide the virus, because they don't even know they are sick.  Until hospital cases and deaths started happening, Covid-19 went unnoticed, maybe for months.  It's a simple case of: we don't know what we don't know.

So Covid-19 could have arrived in the West back in mid-2019, anywhere from April to August, and we just weren't aware of it.  This coincided with the conservatives wave of deregulation, including the dismantling of the Pandemic Response Team, set up by the Obama/Biden administration, which would have caught it sooner.

Maybe it sailed the ocean blue in 1492?

Tommy Monk wrote:Talking crap again quill... The genetic origin in humans has been identified as being sept 2019.

That we know of, tommy...

Republicans and Tories have been in power, overseeing the administering of public health issues since 2016.  Now, we all know that the conservative governments are hostile to any efforts to regulate various industries.  Look at what the Tories have done to the NHS.  They claim that such public protections are too expensive, but privately they don't like the interference in Pharmas and private industry.

When Trump came in, like a bull in a china shop, he laid waste to attempts to promote good public health.  The Obama/Biden administration had done an excellent job of building an infrastructure to handle pandemics.  For example, they skillfully avoided an Ebola pandemic, curtailed the H1N1 flu spread.  The culmination of their efforts was the Pandemic Response Team.

Trump dismantled the Pandemic Response Team and cut spending on health and disease research.  He crippled the whole US effort in the health area.

And now LOOK: we have no defense against a new virus.  It has caused at least 1.1-million deaths, and the conservative governments try to lie their way out of the trouble: it's a little bug...it will be gone next week...a vaccine is just around the corner, and other fabrications to distract the public until elections are past.

How can we say when it started, when we weren't looking?  It's the price you pay for neglect.  And what Republicans/Tories have done to healthcare is negligence and intentional cover-up to hide their mistakes.

You're talking crap again quill... The NHS has got record funding under the Tories over last 10 years, and more or it was privatised under the previous 13 years of labour then at any time.

Tommy Monk wrote:

You're talking crap again quill... The NHS has got record funding under the Tories over last 10 years, and more or it was privatised under the previous 13 years of labour then at any time.

Have you broken out that "record funding" on a per capita basis? Weren't Tories recently trying to sell the NHS?

Anyway, I'm more familiar with this side of the pond. I've detailed what conservative plans did to us...and the world, to the extent that the US and UK are world leaders in keeping up with public health matters.

It's very tragic, as we witness this current pandemic kill more humans than any other in history. And, because of conservative fecklessness, all we can do is watch.

Well The Spanish flu, just over a century ago, was said to kill at least 15 million people globally.
God willing this pandemic doesn't claim so many lives.

Syl wrote:Well The Spanish flu, just over a century ago, was said to kill at least 15 million people globally.
God willing this pandemic doesn't claim so many lives.

Merely to reach herd immunity, which is the RW general plan, by current rates is estimated to lead to about to 6.4 million deaths in the US alone.  Worldwide, who knows?

How many times do I have to tell you that 6.4milliin figure is complete bullshit...!?

Tommy Monk wrote:How many times do I have to tell you that 6.4milliin figure is complete bullshit...!?

Why do you bother? I consider you ill-informed, and just winging it.

For herd immunity to take hold, you would need a minimum of 60% of the entire population to be infected. Given the overall number of confirmed deaths, we can estimate that approximately 0.6% of people with COVID-19 will perish as a result.

As of this writing, over 240,000 Americans have already died from COVID-19. So, what would happen if 60% of the population were infected rather than 10%? The estimates for what a "herd immunity" experience in the U.S. would look like is 6.4-million deaths.

Herd immunity as a pandemic strategy has gained steam among (mostly) conservative politicians and a minority of medical and public health authorities. Infectious disease specialists, however, contend that letting go of state lockdowns and social-distancing mandates would push the pandemic through society like a “tsunami”.

75million in USA have most likely already had it... Meaning the actual fatality rate is nearer 0.93% ..

Okay so we are in a lockdown!
Everywhere closed.......except for the many places that are open!
* Restaurants where you can takeaway.
* Pubs where you can take beer away.
* Shops where you can go and collect
* Schools and all educational settings.
* All chemists and opticians.
* Houses for cleaners to clean
* Dry cleaners to clean your clothes.

Good luck to the NHS who continue to work.... like 90% of us!

Tommy Monk wrote:75million in USA have most likely already had it... Meaning the actual fatality rate is nearer 0.93% ..

Making up numbers does not help your argument, tom. "Most likely" is the equivalent of "I don't know".

Tommy Monk wrote:

75million in USA have most likely already had it... Meaning the actual fatality rate is nearer 0.93% ..

That would drive Quill's death estimate from 6.4 million into the 9 million deaths range ...

Tommy Monk wrote:

75million in USA have most likely already had it... Meaning the actual fatality rate is nearer 0.93% ..

Typo... That should read "0.03%"...


It is believed that for every case that requires hospital treatment, there are at least 100 other cases that don't...


Current death rate of hospitalised cases is well below 10%...


Overall death rate of all cases below 50 is more likely to die from being struck by lightning...


Flu is said to be a much higher death rate at 0.1%.

Tommy Monk wrote:Flu is said to be a much higher death rate at 0.1%.

In the general population, the death rate of Covid-19 is five times greater than flu.

Only if you are hugely underestimating the actual number of infections... Which is said to really be 100x per case that needs hospital treatment...

UK testing shows just over 20,000 positive results for another day...


Still only about 7-8% of people having tests who have either been close to infected people, and/or are displaying symptoms, turn out to actually have this virus...

Here are the latest figures from the gov web site on covid19...


Daily
23,287
Last 7 days
156,742
arrow -2,006 (-1.3%)


And now it looks like we are doing 344,000 tests a day, up from 305,000 a day...

Tommy Monk wrote:And now it looks like we are doing 344,000 tests a day, up from 305,000 a day...

Your a nation of just under 68-million. You should be testing everyone, every other day.

No quill... That's not how it works here...

Well, math is math wherever it is applied. Any given day a person could contract the virus. So, any given day a person should be tested.

However, to be lenient, science can tolerate every other day.

That's not how it works here...

Tommy Monk wrote:That's not how it works here...

So I hear. Perhaps that is one reason why you are failing the Covid-19 challenge.

Don't talk shite... That's not the way it works anywhere you idiot!!!

Tommy Monk wrote:Don't talk shite... That's not the way it works anywhere you idiot!!!

Whataboutism... The point is Covid-19 would go away if we did it right.

Now you're moving the goalposts...

Tommy Monk wrote:Now you're moving the goalposts...

I don't think anyone said otherwise, least of all me. It should be the standard that every person be tested, every other day.

Hell, diabetics have personal testers, and test themselves after every meal. Every other day is a piece of cake.

If yousay so...

Update Sunday 8th Nov

People tested positive
Daily
20,572


So again... Looks like cases are not rising at all over last couple weeks or so...


In fact... Given that we have increased testing from 300,000 to 350,000 a day, the numbers by % are actually decreasing!!!


Looks like the tier based system was working... And maybe the virus has now gone through the schools and universities and is running out of new people to infect...?

Why dont you report the daily deaths too, which are rising rapidly again.
This report was from just 3 days ago


"The UK has registered 492 new coronavirus deaths over the latest 24-hour period, according to new government data.

This is the highest figure since 19 May, when 500 deaths were reported nationwide.

The number of people in the UK to die within 28 days of a positive Covid test now stands at 47,742."




https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/uk-coronavirus-deaths-latest-update-b1590431.html

Yes that may be the number for 1 day... Of course there will be a time lag between case numbers and deaths...


And if you consider that there has been around 20,000 cases positive tested a day for over 2 weeks now, and the actual case numbers is nearer 10x that per day, then the CFR on those numbers is pretty much around 0.1%

Also... As I have said many times already... Many of those deaths will be for a whole host of reasons... Just because they have tested positive for covid19, that does not necessarily mean it was covid19 that caused their death, although all of these deaths are added to the covid19 death tally... Which greatly distorts the true number of deaths directly caused by only the covid19 virus... Which will be much lower than the total number you quoted above...

Tommy Monk wrote:


Also... As I have said many times already... Many of those deaths will be for a whole host of reasons... Just because they have tested positive for covid19, that does not necessarily mean it was covid19 that caused their death, although all of these deaths are added to the covid19 death tally... Which greatly distorts the true number of deaths directly caused by only the covid19 virus... Which will be much lower than the total number you quoted above...

Let's see what the total deaths are in the coming week.

I would like nothing better than for you to be right.....sadly I dont think you are.

If a person has Covid19  when they die, the chances are the virus killed them if not outright then prematurely......and the same can be said of influenza deaths.
If a person is really ill and they then catch influenza, it may show  on the death certificate that influenza which turned into pneumonia was the cause of death.

Those deaths would then be added to the number of anual flu deaths.

Latest covid19 cases...


People tested positive
Daily
21,350

Value: 21350 — Abstract information: Daily number of new people tested positive reported on Monday, 9 November 2020.
Click for additional details.



Still staying around the same daily rate... Has stayed at same level now for how many weeks?


Also, 194 deaths related to covid19 reported in last 24 hours...



Seems the tier based system was working already... And/or the virus is running out of new people to infect as we have more and more people out there who have already had it and have a level of immunity...