Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
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Original Quill
Victorismyhero
Maddog
eddie
Syl
Ben Reilly
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Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Summarizing from several sources I've read tonight, Boris Johnson is expected to announce Monday a second national UK lockdown, starting Wednesday and lasting until December 1. It will likely leave only essential shops and educational environments open.
I never thought, back in March, that there would still be no end in sight!
I never thought, back in March, that there would still be no end in sight!
Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
It wouldn't surprise me, it's getting out of hand again.
The problem is.....Lockdowns only work for the duration ...once they end, the virus starts to circulate and grow momentum again...as we are seeing right now.
The problem is.....Lockdowns only work for the duration ...once they end, the virus starts to circulate and grow momentum again...as we are seeing right now.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
The best I can come up with, as one of probably 5 billion amateur Covid analysts on this planet, is that perhaps we opened everything up too quickly the last time, and we need to do it much slower this time.
But I'm seriously at my wits' end and I'm actually considering resigning as an amateur Covid analyst, because I'm starting to wonder if we'll ever get past this fucking virus.
But I'm seriously at my wits' end and I'm actually considering resigning as an amateur Covid analyst, because I'm starting to wonder if we'll ever get past this fucking virus.
Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
You know Syl, I’m getting worried about sending my little girl to school. I know they say it doesn’t affect children but only until it does....right?
eddie- King of Beards. Keeper of the Whip. Top Chef. BEES!!!!!! Mushroom muncher. Spider aficionado!
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
I'm glad I dont have that decision to make Eddie, I would feel the same concern if I still had youngsters.eddie wrote:You know Syl, I’m getting worried about sending my little girl to school. I know they say it doesn’t affect children but only until it does....right?
Like others, and after going along with everything for 8 months ...I am beginning to feel really pessimistic about this virus now.
I just dont see a way out of it.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
eddie wrote:You know Syl, I’m getting worried about sending my little girl to school. I know they say it doesn’t affect children but only until it does....right?
Just did a bit of research and even though the virus has now created about 13,000 mutations, most of those variants are incredibly similar to the first virus detected in late 2019.
However, the virus isn't going to stop mutating, and as long as it does, there's always the risk that a variant will emerge that will be particularly infectious for children. That's what scares me the most about sending my stepdaughter to school -- that you never know when or where that mutation could emerge and begin to spread.
Last edited by Ben Reilly on Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
eddie wrote:You know Syl, I’m getting worried about sending my little girl to school. I know they say it doesn’t affect children but only until it does....right?
She will be fine. But she could infect you or Ben.
I'd still send my kids because the benefits of normalcy and social interaction outweigh the risks.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Syl wrote:I'm glad I dont have that decision to make Eddie, I would feel the same concern if I still had youngsters.eddie wrote:You know Syl, I’m getting worried about sending my little girl to school. I know they say it doesn’t affect children but only until it does....right?
Like others, and after going along with everything for 8 months ...I am beginning to feel really pessimistic about this virus now.
I just dont see a way out of it.
I see people every day flouting the rules where I work (in hospitality) and I’m amazed that people take it so lightly. I have to wear a face mask for seven hours every day and yet some people are still whining about putting one on.
I have to say, teenagers are among the best - they’re always prepared and rarely kick up a fuss about wearing one.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
I think it all depends on how people look at it. Those who see mask rules as someone trying to force them to do something will rebel, while those who see the rules as a way we can all cooperate to help stop the spread of the virus are more likely to mask up, wash up and socially distance.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
I know. I just wrote this post elsewhere, it's very disheartening.eddie wrote:Syl wrote:
I'm glad I dont have that decision to make Eddie, I would feel the same concern if I still had youngsters.
Like others, and after going along with everything for 8 months ...I am beginning to feel really pessimistic about this virus now.
I just dont see a way out of it.
I see people every day flouting the rules where I work (in hospitality) and I’m amazed that people take it so lightly. I have to wear a face mask for seven hours every day and yet some people are still whining about putting one on.
I have to say, teenagers are among the best - they’re always prepared and rarely kick up a fuss about wearing one.
Seems to be dividing people more.
Those who listen to the facts and figures, know what's going on in their area regarding infections, hospital admissions and deaths, the ones who know which tier they are in and follow the guidelines accordingly.
More and more people are now disregarding all the advice, either they think this virus is not real, or if it is it's exaggerated and not a threat...at least not to them, and on principle they wont be wearing a mask or social distancing.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Christmas is going to be bleak this year. There’s no denying it really.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Ben Reilly wrote:I think it all depends on how people look at it. Those who see mask rules as someone trying to force them to do something will rebel, while those who see the rules as a way we can all cooperate to help stop the spread of the virus are more likely to mask up, wash up and socially distance.
and should be publicly executed slowly with boiling caustic soda
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
You can't start up society, when being sociable kills. As the Bertold Brecht line goes in Three Penny Opera: First feed the face, then talk right or wrong.
First make sure that people won't die, then talk about how you want bars and restaurants to open up.
First make sure that people won't die, then talk about how you want bars and restaurants to open up.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
The lockdown in England which comes into force on Thursday isn't quite as severe as the earlier one, and the furlough scheme is being extended till December...so that's good news for many.
Now all we need is for people to follow the rules, and it's possible Christmas may not be as restricted.
Sadly I wont be holding my breath.
Now all we need is for people to follow the rules, and it's possible Christmas may not be as restricted.
Sadly I wont be holding my breath.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
No lockdown here since end of June. No spike is cases or deaths, they've been low all year despite Thailand being the second country infected.
Nearly everyone wears masks, uses sanitiser and there are screens in all major restaurants.
Half of Britons are petulent brats where these precautions are concerned.
Nearly everyone wears masks, uses sanitiser and there are screens in all major restaurants.
Half of Britons are petulent brats where these precautions are concerned.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
I think you are 100% right, and it's so frustrating to be in the half that follows the rules knowing others are dragging us back into lockdown through sheer selfishness.
The other main cause imo is the ridiculous way the airports have allowed people through with no additional covid checks.....THAT should have been adressed in March.
The other main cause imo is the ridiculous way the airports have allowed people through with no additional covid checks.....THAT should have been adressed in March.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Syl wrote:I think you are 100% right, and it's so frustrating to be in the half that follows the rules knowing others are dragging us back into lockdown through sheer selfishness.
The other main cause imo is the ridiculous way the airports have allowed people through with no additional covid checks.....THAT should have been adressed in March.
Yeah, utter recklessness with travel, both ways. In Thailand there is a mandatory two week quarantine for all arrivals, Thai or foreign. It is inconvenient for travellers but the pay off is zero lockdown here, which is an acceptable payoff imo.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
This is more panicdemic than pandemic now... cases are only around 7% positive out of just over 300,000 tests a day... Although it is reported that testing centres up and down the country are virtually deserted, with nobody actually getting tested...
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Tommy Monk wrote:
This is more panicdemic than pandemic now... cases are only around 7% positive out of just over 300,000 tests a day... Although it is reported that testing centres up and down the country are virtually deserted, with nobody actually getting tested...
Confusing, how can you come up with a figure of 7% a day if no one is being tested?
And if the death figures are on the rise, over 326 yesterday again, how do you figure that's panicdemic?
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Some people prefer conspiracy theories to reality, even when people are dying by the thousands.
Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
I dont pay as much attention to other areas as I do here.
Is this based on the NHS getting close to being overwhelmed or just an increase in cases?
We have seen an increase in cases and an increase in hospitalizations, but it's all manageable at this point.
Is this based on the NHS getting close to being overwhelmed or just an increase in cases?
We have seen an increase in cases and an increase in hospitalizations, but it's all manageable at this point.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
It's an increase in cases which has led to hospitals rapidly filling up. On top of that, the curve is looking worse than the disaster scenario predicted by scientists, who say the UK is trending toward a somewhat unbelievable 4,000 deaths per day.
Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Maddog wrote:I dont pay as much attention to other areas as I do here.
Is this based on the NHS getting close to being overwhelmed or just an increase in cases?
We have seen an increase in cases and an increase in hospitalizations, but it's all manageable at this point.
The NHS is managing, better in some areas than others, but if the spike continues as it has done over the last 2/3 weeks, it wont be long before the NHS is overwhelmed, which is why the 2nd lockdown has been called.
It's not only because patients with the virus will need beds, ICU beds, and many more will die, it's the people who need beds for other serious illnesses that will be neglected too.
It makes me laugh when people who are not following the rules keep saying cancer patients are being neglected because of covid, when it's BECAUSE people are not following the rules that cancer patients and other ill people may not getting the medical help they need.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Syl wrote:Maddog wrote:I dont pay as much attention to other areas as I do here.
Is this based on the NHS getting close to being overwhelmed or just an increase in cases?
We have seen an increase in cases and an increase in hospitalizations, but it's all manageable at this point.
The NHS is managing, better in some areas than others, but if the spike continues as it has done over the last 2/3 weeks, it wont be long before the NHS is overwhelmed, which is why the 2nd lockdown has been called.
It's not only because patients with the virus will need beds, ICU beds, and many more will die, it's the people who need beds for other serious illnesses that will be neglected too.
It makes me laugh when people who are not following the rules keep saying cancer patients are being neglected because of covid, when it's BECAUSE people are not following the rules that cancer patients and other ill people may not getting the medical help they need.
Well, this could be a problem.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
I agree with Syl. The other poster that used to say it can't be a very deadly disease seemed to fail to understand people aren't dying in such overwhelming numbers because of the dedicated medical staff and procedures that are in place and that are very much needed.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Syl wrote:Tommy Monk wrote:
This is more panicdemic than pandemic now... cases are only around 7% positive out of just over 300,000 tests a day... Although it is reported that testing centres up and down the country are virtually deserted, with nobody actually getting tested...
Confusing, how can you come up with a figure of 7% a day if no one is being tested?
And if the death figures are on the rise, over 326 yesterday again, how do you figure that's panicdemic?
Death rate was 10x that a few months ago...
And don't forget, many of the recorded covid deaths now are listed as such just because they have tested positive for it, regardless of whatever other serious health conditions are the most likely cause of their demise...
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Tommy Monk wrote:Syl wrote:
Confusing, how can you come up with a figure of 7% a day if no one is being tested?
And if the death figures are on the rise, over 326 yesterday again, how do you figure that's panicdemic?
Death rate was 10x that a few months ago...
And don't forget, many of the recorded covid deaths now are listed as such just because they have tested positive for it, regardless of whatever other serious health conditions are the most likely cause of their demise...
The daily death rate has never been anywhere near 10 times that figure Tommy, where are you getting your numbers from?
Over 1000 people were dying daily at the height of the first wave, and scientists have predicted that if nothing is done now to curb the rise of the 2nd wave those figures would be surpassed in the next few weeks.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
On this link it shows latest weekly figure to say 761 with covid19 on death cert... While on the graph lower down on link it shows end of April and beginning of May that death rate was around 9000 a week...
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Vintage wrote:I agree with Syl. The other poster that used to say it can't be a very deadly disease seemed to fail to understand people aren't dying in such overwhelming numbers because of the dedicated medical staff and procedures that are in place and that are very much needed.
Hospital admissions are very low in comparison... And just under 1000 across the UK are currently on ventilation...
This is because before, the virus was very widespread but not being confirmed by testing because the testing capacity was not available back then... So there were shit loads more actual cases than testing could confirm... Now there are relatively small numbers of actual cases but testing capacity is so large now that the positive numbers look a lot higher than was really happening before...
And... Where this virus has already done the rounds for nearly 12 months now across the UK... The numbers of people who have already had it and have either some/total immunity to it is much closer to level needed for herd immunity than is thought to be the case...
Another thing... I heard a epidemiology professor talking on the radio the other night, he was a specialist in infectious diseases and said he actually ran a hospital dealing with such things... He said that it isn't even 100% of people who are going to be susceptible to catching this virus anyway, even if we did nothing and just carried on about our normal daily lives as usual ... He did say that particularly vulnerable groups should take precautions... But he argued that on the two floating ships that had outbreaks and were effectively quarantined offshore to contain the virus onboard, namely the cruise ship and the USS navy ship examples, where all the people on board these vessels each had a much closer contact with each other than everybody else on land would typically experience, he said that in both examples it was still only about 20% of people on each ship ended up contracting the virus... His point was that on land in normal circumstances, much less than 10% of population would end up getting the virus before it had run its course...
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
So where you got your figure of 10 x 326 which would equal 3,260 a day i dont know.....that would amount to over 22,000 deaths in the UK a week.Tommy Monk wrote:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
On this link it shows latest weekly figure to say 761 with covid19 on death cert... While on the graph lower down on link it shows end of April and beginning of May that death rate was around 9000 a week...
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Daily figures aren't as good as a weekly figure ..
Read my previous post that shows weekly numbers were over 10x higher than the latest "huge" number of weekly deaths,
Read my previous post that shows weekly numbers were over 10x higher than the latest "huge" number of weekly deaths,
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Tommy Monk wrote:Daily figures aren't as good as a weekly figure ..
Read my previous post that shows weekly numbers were over 10x higher than the latest "huge" number of weekly deaths,
I did read your post Tommy, and the figures you first quoted don't add up. 9,000 deaths a week does not equate to 3,260 deaths a day which is what you first claimed.
Yes the number of deaths right now are not as high as the first wave, the PREDICTED number of deaths if the virus continues spreading at it's present rate will surpass the first wave figures though, that's why the national lockdown is coming into force on Thursday.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
I meant that it was 10x higher before than it is now... And it is...
Last week 761 deaths with covid19 mentioned on certificate... End of May beginning of April it went to 9000 a week.
And another thing I was wondering... They have been claiming that there has been 300,000 tests a day for last month, there were around 250,000 a day the month before, and 200,000 a day the month before... That equals a total for 3 months of about 22 million tests... Question is... Given that it has been widely reported over last couple months that all the testing centres are virtually deserted, who is having all of these tests!?
22 million is a third of population of UK being tested in last 3 months... But I have only heard of about half a dozen people who have had a test since February!!!
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
And Syl... I don't know where you got your figure of 326 deaths a day... This gov web site says last days number was 136...
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Tommy Monk wrote:
And Syl... I don't know where you got your figure of 326 deaths a day... This gov web site says last days number was 136...
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
The figure always goes lower at the weekend, I think it's something to do with how they collate the figures.
I didn't say the deaths had risen to 326 daily, I was quoting that days number.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
That's why you need to look at a weeks figures really, to compare with other weeks, for a better assessment of what's actually going on...
Daily figures can fluctuate quite wildly for various reasons...
But you admit that I was right, that the death rate was 10x higher before...?
Also... positive test results are somewhere in the 18000 mark today too...
Down from the low 20000s over last week or so...
Looks like the local tier based lockdown stuff implemented a little while ago is showing an impact in reducing numbers?
Or maybe the upsurge in cases caused by schools and universities has done the rounds now and it would have started going down now anyway?
And we are much closer to herd immunity than is officially believed/admitted?
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
And if the numbers are now reducing due to whatever reasons... doesn't that mean that a new national implementation of lockdown style restrictions is unnecessary?
Wouldn't it be better to hold off for a little while longer and assess what's what in a few days?
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Tommy Monk wrote:
That's why you need to look at a weeks figures really, to compare with other weeks, for a better assessment of what's actually going on...
Daily figures can fluctuate quite wildly for various reasons...
But you admit that I was right, that the death rate was 10x higher before...?
Also... positive test results are somewhere in the 18000 mark today too...
Down from the low 20000s over last week or so...
Looks like the local tier based lockdown stuff implemented a little while ago is showing an impact in reducing numbers?
Or maybe the upsurge in cases caused by schools and universities has done the rounds now and it would have started going down now anyway?
And we are much closer to herd immunity than is officially believed/admitted?
No Tommy, I don't admit you were right about the figure...and I explained why.
However...no one has said that the daily deaths are presently as high as they were in Spring, you are confusing the two issues.
The PROJECTED deaths, and this has been worked out by the scientists, will be higher than the death figures from the first wave if this 2nd lockdown isn't implemented, and many think it's long overdue because the death rate has risen quite drastically over the last 3 or 4 weeks.
As for herd immunity, which I know you have argued for since this virus started, latest info seems to suggest that immunity doesn't last more than a few months, so reinfection is possible, which would make herd immunity useless.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Case rate and death rate is lower now than it has been in recent few days/couple weeks... so isn't it prudent to see what happens over next few days/week/fortnight to see if this downward trend continues...?
Before implementing these extra lockdown measures that may be totally unnecessary...?
And as for herd immunity... It will never be reached if we keep locking things down and preventing enough people from having immunity at the same time!!!
All that we are doing, in boxing analogy terms, is going toe to toe with a brawler and every time we are gathering momentum and getting close to knocking him out... we stop throwing punches and take a step back and start lowering our defences so he can start gaining a bit more strength and getting right back in the fight...
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Tommy Monk wrote:Case rate and death rate is lower now than it has been in recent few days/couple weeks... so isn't it prudent to see what happens over next few days/week/fortnight to see if this downward trend continues...?
Before implementing these extra lockdown measures that may be totally unnecessary...
A prudent person would say, better safe than sorry.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
prudent
/ˈpruːd(ə)nt/
adjective
acting with or showing care and thought for the future.
'no prudent money manager would authorize a loan without first knowing its purpose'
synonyms: wise, well judged, judicious, sagacious, sage, shrewd, advisable, well advised, politic, sensible, commonsensical, cautious, careful, canny, chary, wary, circumspect, far-sighted, forearmed, forehanded, forethoughtful, thrifty, provident, economical, sparing, frugal, abstemious, scrimping
A prudent approach would be to see numbers declining and not to impose measures that seek to achieve a result that is already happening...
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Tommy Monk wrote:And as for herd immunity... It will never be reached if we keep locking things down and preventing enough people from having immunity at the same time!!!
All that we are doing, in boxing analogy terms, is going toe to toe with a brawler and every time we are gathering momentum and getting close to knocking him out... we stop throwing punches and take a step back and start lowering our defences so he can start gaining a bit more strength and getting right back in the fight...
That assumes we are winning. Are we brawling, or bobbing and weaving until we find an opening? Even in boxing, there is an efficient way and there is a reckless way.
Hell...Republicans and Tories don't even have a plan, so why are we analogizing to any sports form?
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Original Quill wrote:Tommy Monk wrote:Case rate and death rate is lower now than it has been in recent few days/couple weeks... so isn't it prudent to see what happens over next few days/week/fortnight to see if this downward trend continues...?
Before implementing these extra lockdown measures that may be totally unnecessary...
A prudent person would say, better safe than sorry.
So you'll be wearing a mask the rest of your life I presume, because even after the Rona is gone, there will be bugs floating around that are sometimes fatal.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Tommy Monk wrote:
prudent
/ˈpruːd(ə)nt/
adjective
acting with or showing care and thought for the future.
'no prudent money manager would authorize a loan without first knowing its purpose'
synonyms: wise, well judged, judicious, sagacious, sage, shrewd, advisable, well advised, politic, sensible, commonsensical, cautious, careful, canny, chary, wary, circumspect, far-sighted, forearmed, forehanded, forethoughtful, thrifty, provident, economical, sparing, frugal, abstemious, scrimping
A prudent approach would be to see numbers declining and not to impose measures that seek to achieve a result that is already happening...
Precisely. A prudent person gains knowledge, before proceeding with any kind of interaction. After all, the threat is in spread of the virus, not in what we might miss if Aunt Marge doesn't visit. That means social distancing, mask-wearing, and avoid large crowds and loud vocalizing, before getting rock-solid information on where we stand.
Then, we cautiously interact and monitor our conditions.
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Maddog wrote:Original Quill wrote:
A prudent person would say, better safe than sorry.
So you'll be wearing a mask the rest of your life I presume, because even after the Rona is gone, there will be bugs floating around that are sometimes fatal.
Yes. If the bubonic plague were going around, wouldn't you? So it's a difference of degree, not kind.
Here, we have a viral infection five times as deadly as the flu, and I think that's worth a few lifestyle interruptions to be safe.
Original Quill- Forum Detective ????♀️
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Latest data from ONS.Tommy Monk wrote:
Case rate and death rate is lower now than it has been in recent few days/couple weeks... so isn't it prudent to see what happens over next few days/week/fortnight to see if this downward trend continues...?
Before implementing these extra lockdown measures that may be totally unnecessary...?
And as for herd immunity... It will never be reached if we keep locking things down and preventing enough people from having immunity at the same time!!!
All that we are doing, in boxing analogy terms, is going toe to toe with a brawler and every time we are gathering momentum and getting close to knocking him out... we stop throwing punches and take a step back and start lowering our defences so he can start gaining a bit more strength and getting right back in the fight...
[size=36]Deaths in England and Wales involving COVID-19 increased for the sixth consecutive week.[/size]
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest#comparison-of-weekly-death-occurrences-in-england-and-wales
Syl- Forum Detective ????♀️
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Original Quill wrote:Maddog wrote:
So you'll be wearing a mask the rest of your life I presume, because even after the Rona is gone, there will be bugs floating around that are sometimes fatal.
Yes. If the bubonic plague were going around, wouldn't you? So it's a difference of degree, not kind.
Here, we have a viral infection five times as deadly as the flu, and I think that's worth a few lifestyle interruptions to be safe.
But the flu can kill.
Wouldn't a prudent person (especially an older person) wear a mask in public, for the rest of their life?
You know, be safe as opposed to possibly sorry?
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
"...Here I am, asking bluntly – is the closedown of the country the right answer to the coronavirus? I’ll be accused of undermining the NHS and threatening public health and all kinds of other conformist rubbish. But I ask you to join me, because if we have this wrong we have a great deal to lose.
I don’t just address this plea to my readers. I think my fellow journalists should ask the same questions. I think MPs of all parties should ask them when they are urged tomorrow to pass into law a frightening series of restrictions on ancient liberties and vast increases in police and state powers….
It may also be the day our economy perished. The incessant coverage of health scares and supermarket panics has obscured the dire news coming each hour from the stock markets and the money exchanges. The wealth that should pay our pensions is shrivelling as share values fade and fall. The pound sterling has lost a huge part of its value. Governments all over the world are resorting to risky, frantic measures which make Jeremy Corbyn’s magic money tree look like sober, sound finance. Much of this has been made far worse by the general shutdown of the planet on the pretext of the coronavirus scare. However bad this virus is, the feverish panic on the world’s trading floors is at least as bad….
What can one say to this? In a pungent letter to The Times last week, a leading vet, Dick Sibley, cast doubt on the brilliance of the Imperial College scientists, saying that his heart sank when he learned they were advising the Government. Calling them a ‘team of doom-mongers’, he said their advice on the 2001 foot-and-mouth outbreak ‘led to what I believe to be the unnecessary slaughter of millions of healthy cattle and sheep’ until they were overruled by the then Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King.
He added: ‘I hope that Boris Johnson, Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance show similar wisdom. They must ensure that measures are proportionate, balanced and practical.’
Avoidable deaths are tragic, but each year there are already many deaths, especially among the old, from complications of flu leading to pneumonia.
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) tells me that the number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications in England alone averages 17,000 a year. This varies greatly each winter, ranging from 1,692 deaths last season (2018/19) to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15.
The DHSC notes that many of those who die from these diseases have underlying health conditions, as do almost all the victims of coronavirus so far, here and elsewhere. As the experienced and knowledgeable doctor who writes under the pseudonym ‘MD’ in the Left-wing magazine Private Eye wrote at the start of the panic: ‘In the winter of 2017-18, more than 50,000 excess deaths occurred in England and Wales, largely unnoticed.’…
We are warned of supposedly devastating death rates. But at least one expert, John Ioannidis, is not so sure. He is Professor of Medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University in California. He says the data are utterly unreliable because so many cases are going unrecorded. He warns:
‘This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4 per cent rate from the World Health Organisation, cause horror and are meaningless.’
In only one place – aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess – has an entire closed community been available for study. And the death rate there – just one per cent – is distorted because so many of those aboard were elderly. The real rate, adjusted for a wide age range, could be as low as 0.05 per cent and as high as one per cent.
As Prof Ioannidis says: ‘That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05 per cent is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.’
Epidemic disasters have been predicted many times before and have not been anything like as bad as feared.
But while I see very little evidence of a pandemic, and much more of a PanicDemic, I can witness on my daily round the slow strangulation of dozens of small businesses near where I live and work, and the catastrophic collapse of a flourishing society, all these things brought on by a Government policy made out of fear and speculation rather than thought..."
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/03/peter-hitchens-is-shutting-down-britain-with-unprecedented-curbs-on-ancient-liberties-really-the-bes.html
Tommy Monk- Forum Detective ????♀️
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but when people compare this virus to the flu virus, when the facts and figures show very clearly that Covid19 is far more dangerous, infects and kills hundreds of thousands more people than the flu virus does ...and obviously there is no vaccine available to help prevent the spread, it amazes me that some people keep believing that governments throughout the world are over reacting.
Syl- Forum Detective ????♀️
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Re: Reports: UK to enter second nation-wide lockdown next week
Syl wrote:Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but when people compare this virus to the flu virus, when the facts and figures show very clearly that Covid19 is far more dangerous, infects and kills hundreds of thousands more people than the flu virus does ...and obviously there is no vaccine available to help prevent the spread, it amazes me that some people keep believing that governments throughout the world are over reacting.
Covid is more dangerous. The point is, the flu is a danger, as it kills people. What should be done by the individual or the government to lower the risk of infection and possible death?
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