Scottish independence: currency union warning 'backfires' on Westminster

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Scottish independence: currency union warning 'backfires' on Westminster
Voting analyst says support for independence increased after George Osborne ruled out a currency union



A warning by Britain's three main political parties that they would rule out a currency union with an independent Scotland has "backfired" as a new poll shows that just over a third of voters do not believe Westminster, according to a leading psephologist.

As David Cameron tries to win over wavering voters by holding the first meeting of his cabinet in Scotland next week, John Curtice said that the gamble on a currency union had failed to boost the pro-UK camp amid signs of an increase in support for independence.

The professor of politics at Strathclyde University issued his warning as Alex Salmond said that George Osborne's decision to rule out a currency union in a speech in Edinburgh last Thursday had "backfired in spectacular fashion".

Salmond told MSPs: "Most people in Scotland would feel that George Osborne insulted the intelligence of the Scottish people … The indications we have so far is that the joint enterprise between George Osborne and Ed Balls has backfired on the two unionist parties in spectacular fashion."

The first minister turned on Labour, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats after a poll in the Scottish Daily Mail showed an increase in support for the pro-independence side in the week since the chancellor's speech. The Survation poll found that 38% support independence (up six points on a poll two weeks ago) compared with 47% who support the UK, down five points. Survation cautions that a direct comparison cannot be made between its two polls because of a change in its methodology.

The poll also found that only 37% of voters believe that the Westminster parties mean what they say, suggesting that Salmond's attack on Osborne for "bluff" is striking a chord. Curtice pointed out that only 48% of voters want to form a currency union anyway.

Curtice said that the strategy of the pro-UK Better Together campaign – to create a game-changing moment by ensuring that Britain's three main political parties ruled out a currency union on the same day – has failed. Curtice wrote on the BBC website: "The poll's headline findings suggest that, if anything, the 'no' side's stratagem has not only failed to deliver any immediate boost to the unionist cause, but has actually backfired."

Salmond seized on the Daily Mail as he joked that he was breaking the habit of a lifetime to quote from the pro-Union right wing paper. The first minister dismissed attacks from the Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont by saying that Labour had inflicted severe damage on itself by aligning itself with Osborne.

He said: "The Labour party have done themselves huge damage by associating with the Conservatives and in particular George Osborne. The reaction of the Scottish people to being told, instructed from on high that our currency – the currency that we jointly built up – actually doesn't belong to us, it belongs to George, is entirely understandable and will be deeply uncomfortable for the Labour party in Scotland."

Salmond was scathing about José Manuel Barroso, president of the European commission, who said it would "difficult if not impossible" for Scotland to join the EU because Spain might block its accession bid. Barroso pointed out that Spain, which fears secession by Catalonia, has blocked Kosovo's membership bid because it broke away from Serbia. Salmond highlighted remarks by Jim Currie, a former director general for environment directorate at the European commission, who described Barroso's remarks as "extremely unwise" and "inaccurate".

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/20/scottish-independence-currency-union-warning-backfires

I completely agree, it was absolutely stupid of the Labour Party to align themselves with something that was bound to backfire and annoy the Scots so much it turned them towards the Yes vote.

Original Quill wrote:I don't think any of you anglish have taken in Irn's point, which is quite on the mark.  Sphinx, are you avoiding it because it is pretty compelling?

If you start splitting assets, you've gotta go all the way.

I am ignoring it because their leader has declared that if they cant have the pound then they are not paying their share of the debts - if they dont pay their share of the debts they dont get any assets.

If I were Scottish and wanted Independence I would be really really worried that the man in charge of the process is so economically illiterate he cant work out what irn did.

I mean irn has demonstrated why an Independent Scotland should pay its debts - when the discussion is about political parties "blackmailing" the Scots by telling them they would not be able to keep the pound (which I have explained elsewhere is better for an independent Scotland in the long term anyway) and the UK treasury guaranteeing debt repayments no matter what Scotland does. May be irn would be better taking his points to Alex Salmond who is the one threatening to not pay in the first place.

Phoenix wrote:I don't understand how one minute they are saying they want independence then the nextthey say they want to keep the British pound. Note the British pound.
They really are a confused lot I think walking about in womens skirts with no underpants is affecting their thinking.

Morris dancers.

Catman wrote:

Phoenix wrote:I don't understand how one minute they are saying they want independence then the nextthey say they want to keep the British pound. Note the British pound.
They really are a confused lot I think walking about in womens skirts with no underpants is affecting their thinking.

Morris dancers.

Thanks for pointing that out Phil!!...

I quite like the Morris dancing tbh, as well as highland dancing of course.

There are always one or two who will start resorting to insults, and yet , some English gents get married in a kilt! :D 

sphinx wrote:

Original Quill wrote:I don't think any of you anglish have taken in Irn's point, which is quite on the mark.  Sphinx, are you avoiding it because it is pretty compelling?

If you start splitting assets, you've gotta go all the way.

I am ignoring it because their leader has declared that if they cant have the pound then they are not paying their share of the debts - if they dont pay their share of the debts they dont get any assets.

If I were Scottish and wanted Independence I would be really really worried that the man in charge of the process is so economically illiterate he cant work out what irn did.

I mean irn has demonstrated why an Independent Scotland should pay its debts - when the discussion is about political parties "blackmailing" the Scots by telling them they would not be able to keep the pound (which I have explained elsewhere is better for an independent Scotland in the long term anyway) and the UK treasury guaranteeing debt repayments no matter what Scotland does.  May be irn would be better taking his points to Alex Salmond who is the one threatening to not pay in the first place.

The points I have made in my earlier post are the same points that Alex Salmond has been making all along.
It's not just your pound and if there is a split then we will have part ownership of the Bank of England and therefore representation on it.
Alex Salmond's view is that if there is a vote for independence then he wants to negotiate on a currency union between the UK and Scotland which is not unreasonable given that it is for the benefit of both countries.
If Osborne wants to get awkward about it then Salmond says that' up to him so that puts accepting Scotland's share of the national debt up for negotiating as well.

Irn Bru wrote:

sphinx wrote:

I am ignoring it because their leader has declared that if they cant have the pound then they are not paying their share of the debts - if they dont pay their share of the debts they dont get any assets.

If I were Scottish and wanted Independence I would be really really worried that the man in charge of the process is so economically illiterate he cant work out what irn did.

I mean irn has demonstrated why an Independent Scotland should pay its debts - when the discussion is about political parties "blackmailing" the Scots by telling them they would not be able to keep the pound (which I have explained elsewhere is better for an independent Scotland in the long term anyway) and the UK treasury guaranteeing debt repayments no matter what Scotland does.  May be irn would be better taking his points to Alex Salmond who is the one threatening to not pay in the first place.

The points I have made in my earlier post are the same points that Alex Salmond has been making all along.
It's not just your pound and if there is a split then we will have part ownership of the Bank of England and therefore representation on it.
Alex Salmond's view is that if there is a vote for independence then he wants to negotiate on a currency union between the UK and Scotland which is not unreasonable given that it is for the benefit of both countries.
If Osborne wants to get awkward about it then Salmond says that' up to him so that puts accepting Scotland's share of the national debt up for negotiating as well.

Except currency union is not beneficial to both economies - surely the euro has proved that to the thickest idiot?

Currency union will ultimately leave Scotland with many more serious problems and leave it facing the same equally nasty choices Greece currently faces. I do not say that because Scotland is inferior just because it is and will be smaller. Currency decisions will be weighted to benefit the UK before Scotland and that is no place to be.

sphinx wrote:

Irn Bru wrote:

sphinx wrote:

I am ignoring it because their leader has declared that if they cant have the pound then they are not paying their share of the debts - if they dont pay their share of the debts they dont get any assets.

If I were Scottish and wanted Independence I would be really really worried that the man in charge of the process is so economically illiterate he cant work out what irn did.

I mean irn has demonstrated why an Independent Scotland should pay its debts - when the discussion is about political parties "blackmailing" the Scots by telling them they would not be able to keep the pound (which I have explained elsewhere is better for an independent Scotland in the long term anyway) and the UK treasury guaranteeing debt repayments no matter what Scotland does.  May be irn would be better taking his points to Alex Salmond who is the one threatening to not pay in the first place.

The points I have made in my earlier post are the same points that Alex Salmond has been making all along.
It's not just your pound and if there is a split then we will have part ownership of the Bank of England and therefore representation on it.
Alex Salmond's view is that if there is a vote for independence then he wants to negotiate on a currency union between the UK and Scotland which is not unreasonable given that it is for the benefit of both countries.
If Osborne wants to get awkward about it then Salmond says that' up to him so that puts accepting Scotland's share of the national debt up for negotiating as well.

Except currency union is not beneficial to both economies - surely the euro has proved that to the thickest idiot?

Currency union will ultimately leave Scotland with many more serious problems and leave it facing the same equally nasty choices Greece currently faces.  I do not say that because Scotland is inferior just because it is and will be smaller.  Currency decisions will be weighted to benefit the UK before Scotland and that is no place to be.

A currency union between two countries that have shared the same currency for well over a hundred years is quite different from what happened with the Euro.

And there are several leading economists who see no problem with it. The Bank of England already sets interest rates that affect Scotland anyway whether we like it or not so it's really nothing new it?

Irn Bru wrote:

sphinx wrote:

Except currency union is not beneficial to both economies - surely the euro has proved that to the thickest idiot?

Currency union will ultimately leave Scotland with many more serious problems and leave it facing the same equally nasty choices Greece currently faces.  I do not say that because Scotland is inferior just because it is and will be smaller.  Currency decisions will be weighted to benefit the UK before Scotland and that is no place to be.

A currency union between two countries that have shared the same currency for well over a hundred years is quite different from what happened with the Euro.

And there are several leading economists who see no problem with it. The Bank of England already sets interest rates that affect Scotland anyway whether we like it or not so it's really nothing new it?

You worry me sometimes - the whole point of the independence question is that two countries have not shared the same currency because they are joined into a single country. The second Scotland goes independent it becomes exactly like Greece and the euro.

At the moment the bank of England sets interest rates but Scotland is not independent so it is a moot point. If Scotland goes independent the bank of England will still be setting the rates - and that will not be good for an independent Scotland.

sphinx wrote:

Irn Bru wrote:

sphinx wrote:

Except currency union is not beneficial to both economies - surely the euro has proved that to the thickest idiot?

Currency union will ultimately leave Scotland with many more serious problems and leave it facing the same equally nasty choices Greece currently faces.  I do not say that because Scotland is inferior just because it is and will be smaller.  Currency decisions will be weighted to benefit the UK before Scotland and that is no place to be.

A currency union between two countries that have shared the same currency for well over a hundred years is quite different from what happened with the Euro.

And there are several leading economists who see no problem with it. The Bank of England already sets interest rates that affect Scotland anyway whether we like it or not so it's really nothing new it?

You worry me sometimes - the whole point of the independence question is that two countries have not shared the same currency because they are joined into a single country.  The second Scotland goes independent it becomes exactly like Greece and the euro.

At the moment the bank of England sets interest rates but Scotland is not independent so it is a moot point.  If Scotland goes independent the bank of England will still be setting the rates - and that will not be good for an independent Scotland.

Scotland, England, Wales and NI have all been sharing the same currency haven't they.

The Greek situation isn't anything like what the situation would be like if Scotland went independent.

Why wouldn't it be good for Scotland?

What gets me is the odd eejit comment saying or implying that Scotland would never survive without England(even though it's not yet tries and tested) and that we should somehow be indebted to England...in more ways than one!

We have existed as Union countries , so how the hell should any home nation be indebted to another?

Joy Division wrote:What gets me is the odd eejit comment saying or implying that Scotland would never survive without England(even though it's not yet tries and tested) and that we should somehow be indebted to England...in more ways than one!

We have existed as Union countries , so how the hell should any home nation be indebted to another?

Quite right JD and if Osborne and all the other cronies that have screwed up the UK over decades wants to get awkward about then we;ll just have to settle up on the value of our share of the assets against the national debt which would make is debt free with a surplus which would be enough for Scotland to implement it's own currency.

Having said that I'm not in the yes camp but some people are trying really hard by trying to drive us there - the point made in the OP.

Irn Bru wrote:

sphinx wrote:

You worry me sometimes - the whole point of the independence question is that two countries have not shared the same currency because they are joined into a single country.  The second Scotland goes independent it becomes exactly like Greece and the euro.

At the moment the bank of England sets interest rates but Scotland is not independent so it is a moot point.  If Scotland goes independent the bank of England will still be setting the rates - and that will not be good for an independent Scotland.

Scotland, England, Wales and NI have all been sharing the same currency haven't they.

The Greek situation isn't anything like what the situation would be like if Scotland went independent.

Why wouldn't it be good for Scotland?

Scotland, England, Wales and NI are not independent countries but are a unified nation.

It would not be good for Scotland because decisions on things like interest rates, devaluation, fiscal stimulus etc would be made by the Bank of England with focus on what is best for England - if Scotland is independent its economy would be completely different from that of the remaining UK - that economy will have different needs, strengths and weaknesses and decisions that are good for England will not necessarily be good for Scotland. An independent Scotland will have the same relationship with the rest of the UK as Greece does with the EU - right now Greeces economy could do with being able to devalue currency but that is not going to happen because other economies definitely dont want devaluation so Greece is stuck in a sink hole with very little it can do to help itself.

So an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK is going to result in 2 different economies. Now there will come a point where one or other of them cocks up and does something silly. It does not matter which one it is because the result is the same - the Bank of England will do what is best for the UK. Say one or other needs a devaluation - if England needs it while Scotland is economically healthy it screws Scotland, if Scotland needs it while England is economically healthy it leaves Scotland stuck.

That is what independence means - it is why from the start the EU dream has been of doing away with independent countries because it cannot work. I can understand why Scotland may want independence because I want us independent from the EU - but that means I understand the importance of full currency independence something it seems Scotland does not understand.

Irn Bru wrote:

Joy Division wrote:What gets me is the odd eejit comment saying or implying that Scotland would never survive without England(even though it's not yet tries and tested) and that we should somehow be indebted to England...in more ways than one!

We have existed as Union countries , so how the hell should any home nation be indebted to another?

Quite right JD and if Osborne and all the other cronies that have screwed up the UK over decades wants to get awkward about then we;ll just have to settle up on the value of our share of the assets against the national debt which would make is debt free with a surplus which would be enough for Scotland to implement it's own currency.

Having said that I'm not in the yes camp but some people are trying really hard by trying to drive us there - the point made in the OP.

...I'm sure that could work Irn, as we do have fishing , Distilleries , agriculture, oil fields etc, we have much to sell and much to trade with other countries ...

A debt free Scotland does sound awesome  ::D:: 

I totally agree about others steering us to the yes camp.

sphinx wrote:

Irn Bru wrote:

Scotland, England, Wales and NI have all been sharing the same currency haven't they.

The Greek situation isn't anything like what the situation would be like if Scotland went independent.

Why wouldn't it be good for Scotland?

Scotland, England, Wales and NI are not independent countries but are a unified nation.

It would not be good for Scotland because decisions on things like interest rates, devaluation, fiscal stimulus etc would be made by the Bank of England with focus on what is best for England - if Scotland is independent its economy would be completely different from that of the remaining UK - that economy will have different needs, strengths and weaknesses and decisions that are good for England will not necessarily be good for Scotland.  An independent Scotland will have the same relationship with the rest of the UK as Greece does with the EU - right now Greeces economy could do with being able to devalue currency but that is not going to happen because other economies definitely dont want devaluation so Greece is stuck in a sink hole with very little it can do to help itself.

So an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK is going to result in 2 different economies.  Now there will come a point where one or other of them cocks up and does something silly.  It does not matter which one it is  because the result is the same - the Bank of England will do what is best for the UK.  Say one or other needs a devaluation - if England needs it while Scotland is economically healthy it screws Scotland, if Scotland needs it while England is economically healthy it leaves Scotland stuck.

That is what independence means - it is why from the start the EU dream has been of doing away with independent countries because it cannot work.  I can understand why Scotland may want independence because I want us independent from the EU - but that means I understand the importance of full currency independence something it seems Scotland does not understand.

It's a nuisance following you, sphinx, because you keep bringing up Greece. You are making two arguments, and then confusing the two. On the one hand you are discussing formulii for the dissolution, and on the other you seem to want to imply a comparison with Greece (which I gather you would claim is a disaster). Why don't you make just one point?

Both sides are going to use whatever leverage they have. If the Bank of England starts acting arbitrarily with assets, Scotland will do the same with debts. It's an accounting issue on an international level. Greece has no bearing on the matter.

Nor is relative size of any importance. Scotland has an outstanding tech industry, and with four of the world's greatest and best universities it will do fine. I daresay, the University of Edinburgh is probably the world's greatest bio-science and medical school today, surpassing even Johns Hopkins University in Maryland. With oil, automobile manufacturing, ship building, computer and electronics research and development, tourism, and unique industries like distilling, etc., I see no reason to concern yourself over Scotland's future well-being.

Sphinx is getting mixed up with a country joining another currency with one staying within the one they are in at the moment.

I did have to laugh at Alex Salmond telling Cameron that he (Salmond) was working in the oil industry when Cameron was on the playing fields of Eton. Made the point about who knew what went on in the oil industry really well.

Joy Division wrote:

Catman wrote:





Morris dancers.

Thanks for pointing that out Phil!!...

I quite like the Morris dancing tbh, as well as highland dancing of course.

There are always one or two who will start resorting to insults, and yet , some English gents get married in a kilt! :D 

Indeed JD!

Both Scotland and England have invented some amazing customs!



   They do that a lot in the Shires!

........And bash sticks together etc!

 ://?roflmao?/: ://?roflmao?/: ://?roflmao?/: 

Sassy wrote:I did have to laugh at Alex Salmond telling Cameron that he (Salmond) was working in the oil industry when Cameron was on the playing fields of Eton.   Made the point about who knew what went on in the oil industry really well.

Fantasy Island/

You know as well as I the chances of a YES vote are as good as Stephen Hawking beating Usain Bolt in the 100m.

Hey ho how you lefties loves delusions.

Irn Bru wrote:Sphinx is getting mixed up with a country joining another currency with one staying within the one they are in at the moment.

No if by some remarkable act of stupidity they did vote yes you would have a Scottish pound a free floating currency linked to nothing. That is after all what you want is it not, Independence.

Ed Milliband has reiterated that if PM which is far more probable than a YES vote you are not part of the UK pound.

56kevins wrote:

Irn Bru wrote:Sphinx is getting mixed up with a country joining another currency with one staying within the one they are in at the moment.

No if by some remarkable act of stupidity they did vote yes you would have a Scottish pound a free floating currency linked to nothing. That is after all what you want is it not, Independence.

Ed Milliband has reiterated that if PM which is far more probable than a YES vote you are not part of the UK pound.  

Your jumping the gun in just believing that there won't be a Sterling area created.

Sterling is a fully convertable currency which is traded on the international money markets so it's not impossible is it?

56kevins wrote:

Sassy wrote:I did have to laugh at Alex Salmond telling Cameron that he (Salmond) was working in the oil industry when Cameron was on the playing fields of Eton.   Made the point about who knew what went on in the oil industry really well.

Fantasy Island/

You know as well as I the chances of a YES vote are as good as Stephen Hawking beating Usain Bolt in the 100m.

Hey ho how you lefties loves delusions.

The chances of a YES vote have increased just recently which is the point of this thread

kevins58 wrote:

Irn Bru wrote:Sphinx is getting mixed up with a country joining another currency with one staying within the one they are in at the moment.

No if by some remarkable act of stupidity they did vote yes you would have a Scottish pound a free floating currency linked to nothing. That is after all what you want is it not, Independence.

Ed Milliband has reiterated that if PM which is far more probable than a YES vote you are not part of the UK pound.  

Between this and your previous post, you show that you are using self-justifying reasoning. You say, 1) absolutely no way they will vote 'yes'; and 2) but if they do vote yes, it will be a "remarkable act of of stupidity." Fail!

Do you set yourself up that way much? You exhibit the same Anglish arrogance that led y'all to this point. You expect that only England can keep it together...that only England has the resources, etc. Won't you be surprised when Scotland comes out the better.

**taps toe to the music**

Sassy wrote:I did have to laugh at Alex Salmond telling Cameron that he (Salmond) was working in the oil industry when Cameron was on the playing fields of Eton.   Made the point about who knew what went on in the oil industry really well.

...I heard that too Sassy   

Irn Bru wrote:

56kevins wrote:


Fantasy Island/

You know as well as I the chances of a YES vote are as good as Stephen Hawking beating Usain Bolt in the 100m.

Hey ho how you lefties loves delusions.

The chances of a YES vote have increased just recently which is the point of this thread

I so wish we really could have a bet. Truly I would wager a very large sum on a NO vote. Would you????????

kevins58 wrote:

Irn Bru wrote:

56kevins wrote:


Fantasy Island/

You know as well as I the chances of a YES vote are as good as Stephen Hawking beating Usain Bolt in the 100m.

Hey ho how you lefties loves delusions.

The chances of a YES vote have increased just recently which is the point of this thread

I so wish we really could have a bet. Truly I would wager a very large sum on a NO vote. Would you????????

I think the chances of a YES vote are extremely remote but the point being made in the OP that you appear to have missed is that the rhetoric coming from Westminster narrowed the gap.

Wager on a NO vote?   No I wouldn't.

My OH, a Scot, has always said he'd rather it stayed as one country. After the sterling debacle, he said fuck 'em, I'd vote yes now.

Sassy wrote:Wager on a NO vote?   No I wouldn't.

My OH, a Scot, has always said he'd rather it stayed as one country.   After the sterling debacle, he said fuck 'em, I'd vote yes now.

Believe me there is no way the vote will go YES. I wish I could get evens. I'd bet my shirt!

Please do, would love to hear your teeth chattering knowing you are suffering, in more ways than one.

kevins58 wrote:

Sassy wrote:Wager on a NO vote?   No I wouldn't.

My OH, a Scot, has always said he'd rather it stayed as one country.   After the sterling debacle, he said fuck 'em, I'd vote yes now.

Believe me there is no way the vote will go YES. I wish I could get evens. I'd bet my shirt!

Yes, you said, and no-one is disagreeing with you. But the point of the OP is accurate - isn't it?

Sassy wrote:Please do, would love to hear your teeth chattering knowing you are suffering, in more ways than one.

As a Scot I have to reluctantly admit it isn't going to happen. I don't think you will get to see that shirt removed sorry to spoil your cheap thrill.