Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral

by Guest Fri Aug 19, 2016 10:24 am

The Arctic’s ice is disappearing. We must reduce emissions, fast, or the human castastrophe predicted by ocean scientist Peter Wadhams will become reality

Ice scientists are mostly cheerful and pragmatic. Like many other researchers coolly observing the rapid warming of the world, they share a gallows humour and are cautious about entering the political fray.

Not Peter Wadhams. The former director of the Scott Polar Research Institute and professor of ocean physics at Cambridge has spent his scientific life researching the ice world, or the cryosphere, and in just 30 years has seen unimaginable change.

When in 1970 he joined the first of what would be more than 50 polar expeditions, the Arctic sea ice covered around 8m sq km at its September minimum. Today, it hovers at around 3.4m, and is declining by 13% a decade. In 30 years Wadhams has seen the Arctic ice thin by 40%, the world change colour at its top and bottom and the ice disappear in front of his eyes.

In a new book, published just as July 2016 is confirmed by Nasa as the hottest month ever recorded, this most experienced and rational scientist states what so many other researchers privately fear but cannot publicly say – that the Arctic is approaching a death spiral which may see the entire remaining summer ice cover collapse in the near future.

Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral 3888

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‘Because Peter Wadhams says what other scientists will not, he has been slandered, attacked and vilified by denialists and politicians who have advised caution or non-action.’ Photograph: PR
The warming now being widely experienced worldwide is concentrated in the polar regions and Wadhams says we will shortly have ice-free Arctic Septembers, expanding to four or five months with no ice at all. The inevitable result, he predicts, will be the release of huge plumes of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, accelerating warming even further.

He and other polar experts have moved from being field researchers to being climate change pioneers in the vanguard of the most rapid and drastic change that has taken place on the planet in many thousands of years. This is not just an interesting change happening in a remote part of the world, he says, but a catastrophe for mankind.
“We are taking away the beautiful world of Arctic Ocean sea ice which once protected us from the impacts of climate extremes. We have created an ocean where there was once an ice sheet. It is man’s first major achievement in re-shaping the face of the planet,” he writes.

And, boy, are we seeing extremes. So far this year, the planet’s average temperature has been 1.3C warmer than the late 19th century, and 2016 is virtually certain be the hottest year ever recorded.

Britain and northern Europe may have had average temperatures, but 500 million people in the Middle East and north Africa, along with most of south-east Asia, have experienced droughts and searingly hot days and nights, which are only partly to do with the natural El Niño phenomenon. Meanwhile, China, India and the US have seen some of their longest heatwaves and worst floods in decades, and nearly 100 million people will need food aid in the coming months because of disrupted rainfall patterns.

Mitribah in Kuwait has reported a world record 54C, India and Iran have both recorded their highest ever temperatures, and deadly heatwaves have struck China, the US, Indonesia and New Zealand. We are perilously close to the 1.5C limit of warming that all countries signed up to in Paris last year and on track for a 3C-4C increase which would make much of the world uninhabitable.

Because Wadhams says what other scientists will not, he has been widely slandered, attacked and vilified by denialists and politicians who have advised caution or non-action. But now he returns their fire, exhorting people to counter what he calls “the sewage flow of lies and deceit” emitted by the deniers. Above all, he says, people who study climate change should speak up and be prepared to risk the blighting of their careers and absence of honours.
But he joins other climate researchers to cross lines that the public may still find unacceptable. He wants global action to find new ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere, and is not afraid of nuclear power – both of which answers can be swallowed – but he also argues for a colossal, global research programme in geo- engineering.

This is the deliberate attempt to reduce warming by the planetary-scale manipulation of weather patterns, oceans, currents, soils and atmosphere to decrease the amount of greenhouses gases.

Spraying sun-reflecting chemicals into the atmosphere, mimicking volcanoes, blocking sunlight and fertilising the oceans with iron filings attracts people who think that technology has all the answers, but it should strike fear into most of the world, which has not been responsible for warming and which has no reason to trust politicians’ or scientists’ further meddling with planetary forces.

How to proceed safely in a warming world without disastrous unintended consequences? The need for truly urgent action is undeniable, but by the time answers have been found to the massive questions of science, engineering and governance that Wadhams agrees need to be solved before geo-engineering on a planetary scale can go ahead, it will be far too late.

Climate change has been caused by ignorance and stupidity and cannot be solved by endorsing more of the same with geo-engineering. The only answer is reducing greenhouse emissions. Fast.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/18/ice-scientists-arctic-ice-disappearing-reduce-emissions-peter-wadhams

I think that in as little as 10 years time, we are going to look back and wonder why we were all so blind and stupid.

by Tommy Monk Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:25 pm

Except nasa say the temp has only risen approx 0.7 degrees Celsius over last 100 years and 0.06 degrees over last 20 years.

All direct correlation with higher solar activity over last 100 years.

by eddie Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:05 pm

Tommy why do you keep on saying that climate change is all bollocks? It clearly isn't!

by Guest Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:21 pm

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Climate change: How do we know?

Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral 203_co2-graph-021116

Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral 203_co2-graph-021116

This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO₂ has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Credit: Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record.)

The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is very likely human-induced and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years.¹
Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing climate.
The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century.² Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many instruments flown by NASA. There is no question that increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response.
Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. They also show that in the past, large changes in climate have happened very quickly, geologically-speaking: in tens of years, not in millions or even thousands.³

The evidence for rapid climate change is compelling:

Sea level rise

Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century. The rate in the last decade, however, is nearly double that of the last century.⁴
Image: Republic of Maldives: Vulnerable to sea level rise

Global temperature rise

All three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880.⁵ Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years.⁶ Even though the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an unusually deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface temperatures continue to increase.⁷

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Warming oceans

The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.⁸

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Shrinking ice sheets

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.
Image: Flowing meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet

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Declining Arctic sea ice

Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades.⁹
Image: Visualization of the 2007 Arctic sea ice minimum

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Glacial retreat

Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa.¹⁰
Image: The disappearing snowcap of Mount Kilimanjaro, from space.

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Extreme events

The number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events.¹¹

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Ocean acidification

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent.^12,¹³ This increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the oceans. The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion tons per year.^14,¹⁵

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Decreased snow cover

Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and that the snow is melting earlier.¹⁶

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by eddie Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:36 pm

And quite apart from that evidence, I can see the changing weather all around me.

by Guest Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:41 pm

Exactly, I put that up as Tommy seems to think that NASA does not agree that climate change is down to CO2 or that it is accelerating. Clearly it thinks both.

by Ben Reilly Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:48 pm

Everyone too stupid or stubborn to recognize the reality of climate change shares the blame for a lot of suffering in the future.

by eddie Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:50 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:Everyone too stupid or stubborn to recognize the reality of climate change shares the blame for a lot of suffering in the future.

Well said! I'm quite obsessive about recycling, and turning lights off and keeping heating down - and I know it's a tiny effort, but I get really pissed off with people that say "What's the point?"

What's the point??? Your children's future, that's the point!!

by Tommy Monk Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:39 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:Except nasa say the temp has only risen approx 0.7 degrees Celsius over last 100 years and 0.06 degrees over last 20 years.

All direct correlation with higher solar activity over last 100 years.

by Victorismyhero Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:47 pm

try doing something about it

like installing solar energy with battery back up, and especially a small wind turbine in an urban area and you will find that the ONLY thing both national and local govt are interested in is how much they can rob you of via imposed laws in planning regs and building regs....

they try as hard as they can to make it IMPOSSIBLE for anyone to install their own systems, and instead require you to use so called trades men who charge rip off prices not only for their labour but for the equipment as well...

and the systems they install are in general ....crap...

lacking proper computerised supervisor systems...which dont need to be fast but ideally should be "distributed computing" systems..

I decided in the end "F**K em....and did it anyway...if they want to make a fuss...well let em....

but they will have a hard job proving any faulty design OR installation..... Twisted Evil

by Guest Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:53 pm

eddie wrote:
Ben Reilly wrote:Everyone too stupid or stubborn to recognize the reality of climate change shares the blame for a lot of suffering in the future.
Well said! I'm quite obsessive about recycling, and turning lights off and keeping heating down - and I know it's a tiny effort, but I get really pissed off with people that say "What's the point?"

What's the point??? Your children's future, that's the point!!

And as we - 'WE' the educated humanity that see the obvious evidence all around us and can read and have the ability to view the obvious evidence provided by those that have been watching - doing the research and now with our Satellite capabilities Twisted Evil

'WE' the educated just have to forge ahead and ignore/leave behind/set aside those that will naysay until the oceans have risen up around their very ears --- that this human foot print has escalated the global evolution and WE HAVE MADE SOME HORRIBLE CHOICES IN OUR USES AND FUMES THAT WE ALLOWED TO JUST PERMIATE OUR PLANET.

There's no changing such willful ignorance ...it was the same for many hysteria driven fanatics that swore those ships would sail right off the edge of the earth and perish; is the likeness of trying to change the mindset of our Tommykins! It just won't happen and he's happy to dwell in his oblivion and ignorance. Suspect

But the majority that do care about our planet: tree huggers/recyclers/anti-fossil fuel fighters and educated readers of the current data ...out number those 'give-a-shitters' and as with the 'hole in the OZONE' = we stepped up - we made drastic changes - and we made a difference in OUR LIFE TIME.
Education/Educated out number the nit-wits out there! Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral 202592697

Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral 202592697

by Guest Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:03 pm

My husband and I worked solar panels into our small landscape business back in the mid 80's but it just didn't take off so we dropped that. But he'd be amazed at how the wind power possibilities have taken off now. And I've been looking at getting something for my own home use like >

Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral 5k%2050%20rpm%20Vawt%20Wind%20Turbine

Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral 5k%2050%20rpm%20Vawt%20Wind%20Turbine

Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral Vertical_wind_turbine_generator_wind_turbine_residential

Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral Hummer-500W-Residential-Wind-Turbine-1369019563-0

Especially for my 2 - 28' deep water wells; what my rural areas all were accustomed to seeing - those old standard Wind Mills - used to pump water for those cattle pastures! > > >
Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral Texas-water-windmill

Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral Texas-water-windmill

Kansas is rated as the 5th windiest state in America!

by eddie Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:07 pm

How much would that cost 4ever?

by Guest Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:30 pm

eddie wrote:How much would that cost 4ever?

Wind turbines under 100 kilowatts cost roughly $3,000 to $8,000 per kilowatt of capacity. A 10 kilowatt machine {the size needed to power a large home} might have an installed cost of $50,000-$80,000 or more.
There are tax and other incentives that can dramatically reduce the cost of a wind project. The vertical one's take up less space and I've seen them used between housing/homes in city applications too.
If I was able to assemble and do all of the manual labor needed the cost would be affordable to offset the investment for me; but since I'd have to hire that all to be done that's an additional out of pocket fee that is really putting this out of my budget right now.
I've been kicking this around for years; down the road from where I lived and had our landscape business - this rancher/dairy farmer lived up on a knoll {slight hill} he'd build his own wind turbine from old aircraft parts and set his up to 35' into the air {just missing the 40' FCC restricted air regulations} but he did place a red beacon light on top of his turbine - just incase. But that was all done in the early 80's and he had lots of people drive out to his place to ask questions about his own electrical powered system. He was a professor at Kansas University in Physics and farmed as a hobby.

If you have enough wind resource in your area and the situation is right, small wind electric systems are one of the most cost-effective home-based renewable energy systems -- with zero emissions and pollution.
Small wind electric systems can:

Lower your electricity bills by 50%–90%
Help you avoid the high costs of having utility power lines extended to a remote location
Help uninterruptible power supplies ride through extended utility outages.

Small wind electric systems can also be used for a variety of other applications, including water pumping [10890] on farms and ranches.
Our pages on planning for a small wind electric system, and on installing and maintaining a small wind electric system have more information.
How a Small Wind Electric System Works
Wind is created by the unequal heating of the Earth's surface by the sun. Wind turbines convert the kinetic energy in wind into clean electricity. When the wind spins the wind turbine's blades, a rotor captures the kinetic energy of the wind and converts it into rotary motion to drive the generator. Most turbines have automatic overspeed-governing systems to keep the rotor from spinning out of control in very high winds. Our wind power animation has more information about how wind systems work and the benefits they provide.
A small wind system can be connected to the electric grid through your power provider or it can stand alone (off-grid). This makes small wind electric systems a good choice for rural areas that are not already connected to the electric grid.
Small Wind Electric System Components
A wind electric system is made up of a wind turbine mounted on a tower to provide better access to stronger winds. In addition to the turbine and tower, small wind electric systems also require balance-of-system components.
Turbines
Most small wind turbines manufactured today are horizontal-axis, upwind machines that have two or three blades. These blades are usually made of a composite material, such as fiberglass.
The turbine's frame is the structure onto which the rotor, generator, and tail are attached. The amount of energy a turbine will produce is determined primarily by the diameter of its rotor. The diameter of the rotor defines its "swept area," or the quantity of wind intercepted by the turbine. The tail keeps the turbine facing into the wind.
Towers
Because wind speeds increase with height, a small wind turbine is mounted on a tower. In general, the higher the tower, the more power the wind system can produce.
Relatively small investments in increased tower height can yield very high rates of return in power production. For instance, to raise a 10-kilowatt generator from a 60-foot tower height to a 100-foot tower involves a 10% increase in overall system cost, but it can produce 25% more power.
Most turbine manufacturers provide wind energy system packages that include towers. There are two basic types of towers: self-supporting (free-standing) and guyed. There are also tilt-down versions of guyed towers. Most home wind power systems use a guyed tower, which are the least expensive and are easier to install than self-supporting towers. However, because the guy radius must be one-half to three-quarters of the tower height, guyed towers require enough space to accommodate them.
While tilt-down towers are more expensive, they offer the consumer an easy way to perform maintenance on smaller light-weight turbines, usually 10 kilowatt or less. Tilt-down towers can also be lowered to the ground during hazardous weather such as hurricanes. Aluminum towers are prone to cracking and should be avoided.
Balance of System Components
The balance-of-system parts you'll need for a small wind electric system -- those in addition to the wind turbine and the tower -- will depend on your application. For example, the parts required for a water pumping system will be much different from what you need for a residential application.
The balance-of-system parts required will also depend on whether your system is grid-connected, stand-alone, or hybrid.
Most manufacturers can provide you with a system package that includes all the parts you need for your particular application. For a residential grid-connected application, the balance-of-system parts may include the following:

A controller
Storage batteries
An inverter (power conditioning unit)
Wiring
Electrical disconnect switch
Grounding system
Foundation for the tower.
http://energy.gov/energysaver/small-wind-electric-systems

by Tommy Monk Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:30 pm

eddie wrote:Tommy why do you keep on saying that climate change is all bollocks? It clearly isn't!

The climate has always changed over the centuries... sometimes warmer... sometimes cooler...

The temperature change over the last 100 years is an estimated rise of 0.7degrees and over last 20 years has been almost nothing at all... 0.06 degrees...

This is all a direct result of the higher level of solar activity over the last 100 years.

by eddie Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:37 pm

4ever, have you nobody who could do the work for just a small fee and some home cooked food?
How much would it save you in bills?

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Time to listen to the ice scientists about the Arctic death spiral