Caucus day - Iowa

The first race of the political season kicking off the 2016 presidential election primaries.  My predictions?

Democrats - Hands down, Hillary will win it.  Bernie Saunders is in a near tie with her in the polls (within the MSD), but this is the midwest and Saunders doesn't fit.  Saunders may collect New Hampshire (the next race in sequence), but he comes from neighboring Vermont and it's expected he will clean up New England.  On to South Carolina, the next in the parade.

Republicans - My bet (and hope) is that Trump will sweep.  He is the loudest, most entertaining clown, and he will go down in defeat in the general most spectacularly.  It will be almost as much fun as watching Barack Obama dump Mitt Romney in a single, massive poop.  Trump's win in the Iowa caucus will clean out the riff-raff, most particularly the candidate from Canada, Ted Cruz.  Rubio and Paul are little boys, considered to be sand box players by the majority of the people.

Hillary is considered hands-down, the favorite...which is a surprise considering she would be the first female candidate to win the presidency.  You would think that would happen with much more fanfare, not ho-hum, the choice was obvious.  But she is ho-hum in terms of her middle-of-the-road stand, which is probably center-right even of her husband.  

We'll have to wait for more exciting, leftward politics and policies.  I'm looking for Wendy Davis in 2024.  All the stars are women; none of the men stir any passions on the Democratic side, after Obama.

In the waning days of the Republican Party, I'm looking around for a new party.  Any suggestions?  I'm thinking of a resurrection of the National Progressive Party (TPP), or as Teddy Roosevelt called it, the Bull Moose Party. I've been reading up on the biography of Teddy Roosevelt in preparation. Dalton, Katie, Theodore Roosevelt: A Strenuous Life.

Microsoft's Bing agrees with your prediction:

According to Bing’s forecast, Trump will be the winner in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, while Hillary Clinton will walk away with victorious from all of the first four races, except for New Hampshire. Bing predicts that race will go to Bernie Sanders.

http://www.wired.com/2016/01/what-debate-bing-predicts-trump-will-win-iowa-anyway/

So...Democrats are in a virtual tie.  Hillary and Bernie.  Methinks the electorate is too liberal for Hillary, even in the Bible-belted mid-west.  The question remains, is Bernie the answer?

Over on the Republican side, Cruz barely tops Trump--what, by 3 points?  Rubio has done surprisingly well, and detracted votes from the others.  That probably explains it...but from whom is he drawing off votes.  Rubio has split the conservatives between Trump and the Canadian.  

Hey...Iowans are 68% liberals, so that leaves only 32% for conservatives to play with.  With a smaller number, deviations are more likely.

I'm confident that Americans will never vote for someone whose name ends in an 'o' or a 'z'...just a fact.

If Republicans are willing to vote for and O or a Z instead of a Trump; putting any anti-Latino feeling to one side, then don't be so sure Quill. If conservatives will not let ancestry affect their vote then liberals definitely shouldn't.

And tbf, looking at your predictions in the OP, this race isn't going to be so easy to read. No sweeps at all, and Trump lost.

glad it was so close on the democrats side,
Hillary’s rail road to the white house getting stuck on some Actual representative democracy. I always say that when an candidate with as little corporate support as Bernie get even that close it means they are really good because half Hillary's votes where bought and paid for long ago.. and she is who the big money wants
 
Cruz is a very slight improvement on trump.. not much of one.

Eilzel wrote:If Republicans are willing to vote for and O or a Z instead of a Trump; putting any anti-Latino feeling to one side, then don't be so sure Quill. If conservatives will not let ancestry affect their vote then liberals definitely shouldn't.

It's not my sympathy, Les. That's why I added the words, "just a fact." Soon, thankfully, the electorate will vote for a Latino for president...hopefully. The population is turning Hispanic predominately, rather quickly.

Eilzel wrote:And tbf, looking at your predictions in the OP, this race isn't going to be so easy to read. No sweeps at all, and Trump lost.

Yes, given the polls, Trump's rapid demotion to 2nd place surprises me. I guess I didn't listen to my own advice, where I admonished that polls are not votes, and can be deceptive. I guess I felt safer with Trump because I knew he would be pushed aside in the general.

How does everyone feel about Cruz? Obama is immensely popular; not so Hillary, apparently. Could this be a horse race?