Global warming could make Persian Gulf uninhabitable in 85 years

Scientists looking at the impact of rising global temperatures on the Persian Gulf region have come to a disturbing conclusion. They say a “tipping point” will likely occur by the end of this century when heat in that part of the world will make it uninhabitable for humans.

The study, conducted by Elfatih Eltahir, a professor of civil and environment engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Dr. Jeremy Pal from Loyola Marymount University, was published Oct. 26 in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Using “high-resolution versions of standard climate models,” an MIT statement explained, the researchers discovered that such major cities as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Qatar could exceed a climatic “tipping point” that is incompatible with human life.

The tipping point is calculated by combining the effects of higher temperatures and humidity, which better reflect what the human body is able to withstand without access to artificial cooling, the statement says. This measurement is known as the “wet-bulb temperature.”

The tipping point is reached when someone must withstand six hours of unremitting heat at 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). These numbers are equivalent to the U.S. National Weather Service’s “heat index” of about 165 degrees Fahrenheit.

The Persian Gulf region would be particularly hard hit by climate change, the authors say. This is the result of a combination of factors, including the shallowness of gulf waters, low elevations, and cloudless skies. Because Persian Gulf waters are so shallow, water temperatures are unusually high and susceptible to a great deal of evaporation, which causes the atmosphere to be extremely humid.

This tipping point “has, as far as we know…never been reported for any location on Earth,” says Eltahir in the university statement.

The authors point out that these extreme conditions are of concern not only to the region’s many residents, but to the couple of million travelers who make the yearly Hajj, or pilgrimage, to Mecca.

nicko wrote:What makes you think that the puny efforts of Humans can in any way dictate what the weather will be in years to come?

We can demonstrate in a laboratory the warming potential of CO2; we can measure the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and determine where CO2 and other greenhouse gases have come from, and measure their impact on Earth’s climate systems. What we see is very much in line with the basic physics of how CO2 works; and in line with the thesis that CO2 is being generated by humans.

We are putting 40 gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. To give you a sense of how much that is, if you wanted to remove just four gigatons of CO2 out of the atmosphere by planting trees, you’d need to cover an area the size of the United States with forests, then plant an area the size of New York State once a year for 50 years.

Unfortunately, for many people it is not about science: it’s about ideology. It’s about what political party or cultural group they identify with.

eddie wrote:I am an absolute firm believer that we can make a difference!

Actions that so many of us have been doing for so long, with so little hope in our hearts, like changing light bulbs, getting better insulation or cycling to work are having a very large impact on oil demand. For the first time in 40 years, according to the National Energy Agency, there’s been a decoupling of global economic growth with emissions growth from the burning of fossil fuels. That is unbelievably good news, due in part to those billions of small actions individuals have taken to become more efficient. And it’s happened many years in advance of what anyone thought possible.

eddie wrote:Yep! I recycle and do my (big) bit for recycling etc

A lot of people tell me I'm wasting my time but I really believe it's making a difference.

People need to find a use for old tyres though; we have tons of them in the UK
A couple,recently built a house from them on a programme called Grand Designs

You'd like it Ben - you should google it and watch it

Tommy Monk wrote:

Climate change has always happened throughout the whole of this planets history...


The claim that it is happening now and over recent few hundred years and because of co2 levels is completely without any evidence.


Also... this is a totally different argument to general pollution and bits of plastic floating about in The sea etc...

Ben_Reilly wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:

Climate change has always happened throughout the whole of this planets history...


The claim that it is happening now and over recent few hundred years and because of co2 levels is completely without any evidence.


Also... this is a totally different argument to general pollution and bits of plastic floating about in The sea etc...

You're wrong, and you might some day see that if you could approach this subject with an open mind. I was very skeptical at first myself, but all you have to look at is the billions of vehicles and millions of coal and oil-burning factories and power plants all over the world to realize how much pollution is being given off -- as Flannery says, 40 gigatons per year.

I've already told you that past climate change occurred over 100s of thousands to millions of years. You are very stubborn.

Tommy Monk wrote:The climate change 'scientists' told us that all the polar sea ice would be gone by now...



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm



But the reality...


http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/5/curl-irony-alert-global-warmists-get-stuck-in-ice/?page=all


And...


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2738653/Stunning-satellite-images-summer-ice-cap-thicker-covers-1-7million-square-kilometres-MORE-2-years-ago-despite-Al-Gore-s-prediction-ICE-FREE-now.html

Climate change predictions made 20 years ago have so far proved accurate, suggesting that the world is indeed on track to a radical climate shift, according to a new paper published today.

In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – a group of the world’s top climate scientists – released its First Assessment Report, predicting global warming of about 1.1 degrees celsius between 1990 and 2030.

In today’s edition of Nature Climate Change, climate scientists David Frame and Dáithí A. Stone argue that, halfway through that projection period, the predictions made in 1990 are proving mostly accurate.

The 1990 report’s “best estimate” was that the world would warm by about 1.1 degrees celsius between 1990 and 2030, meaning that the halfway prediction would be about 0.55 degrees celsius by 2010.

In fact, the world has now warmed by about 0.39 degrees celsius, coming very close to the prediction despite several unforeseen historical events, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Mt Pinatubo volcanic eruption and the rise of China.

“As is always the case in science, we cannot know for certain that the 1990 prediction was accurate for the right reasons but, given the apparent absence of any credible alternative theories and the robustness of the prediction, this evaluation strongly supports the contention that the climate is responding to enhanced levels of GHGs (greenhouse gases) in accordance with historical expectations,” the authors wrote.

Tommy Monk wrote:Temperatue hasn't changed in twenty years...

The headline was catnip to climate change deniers:

“Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago, Says Met Office Report Quietly Released.”

It hits all the right notes: Global warming is a myth; and ‘they’ know it’s a myth and are trying to keep it quiet. (The ‘they’ in this context – the Met Office – is Britain’s national weather forecasting service. Met is an abbreviation for Meteorological.)

The article, in the London tabloid Daily Mail, goes on to state: “The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week. The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures … The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported.”

PHOTOS: Top 5 Surprises From Climate Change
It is said that there is nothing new under the Sun, and the denialist argument that there has been no warming since 1997 or 1998 is an oft-repeated one. We’ve addressed it here several times, notably back in 2009 when ‘Washington Post’ columnist George Will was repeating it a great deal.

It seemed to, ahem, cool down a little when 2010 moved ahead of 1998 in the medal race for World’s Hottest Year – but, as John Cook of the excellent Skeptical Science blog said when I mentioned the Daily Mail article to him, “I fully expect to see this ‘global warming has stopped’ myth repeated for many years to come.” Indeed, David Rose, author of the ‘Daily Mail’ article, has been repeating that same line for some time himself.


VIDEO: Monitoring Climate Change
So what’s the story? It should first of all be pointed out that, contrary to the headline’s claims, the Met Office didn’t “quietly release” any report – it simply updated its ongoing temperature data set. It should also be pointed out that a scientist whom Rose quoted as saying that the news showed climate models are ‘deeply flawed’ in fact insists she said no such thing.

The key point here is in the arbitrary starting point. Climate scientists note that while the underlying long-term trend is unmistakable, it can be masked by short-term natural variations. And 1998 was an exceptionally hot year as a result of a very strong El Niño that created a lot of atmospheric warming. (In fact, it currently occupies the bronze medal position, behind 2005 and the race-leading 2010.) Move the starting point to 1999, and the picture changes considerably.

Tommy Monk wrote:Worlds hottest year...!!!???





How old is the world?


How long is the period of time that this 'worlds hottest year' claim is covering!!!???


And show us how far back in history we have enough widespread and accurate temperature measurement data on which to base any such claim...!!!???





You are a fool!!!

Tommy Monk wrote:So I've got you to admit the crucially important caveat in these claims, which is "1998 and 2010 were the top two hottest years on record", and I am the moron...!!!???


Maybe you could answer the other important question which is how far back historically do we have accurate and widespread temperature measurement data???

Tommy Monk wrote:We don't have the accurate and widespread data... that is the simple truth!


And wasn't it the ice age that caused the most recent mass extinction...!?


It was you who posted the claim that recent years were the hottest ever... then you said that it has been hotter in the past!!!


I only question what data you are basing the first claim on...

Tommy Monk wrote:
You and your climate change loons see a few forest fires in west USA and immediately start bleating about how this must be because of global warning etc... when really it is just a return to normal temperatures that The trees have evolved to survive in and require to reproduce in, over millennia!

We are actually recovering from a very cool period, so cold that the Thames froze over and people skated on the ice!

And many scientists believe that co2 levels rise as a result of warmer periods, not the cause of them.

Tommy Monk wrote:The Thames freezing over a few hundred years ago is evidence of global warming?

Explain the trees evolution over millennia to require temperatures so hot as to create fires for them to survive and reproduce...!?

http://plantsneedco2.org/default.aspx?act=documentdetails.aspx&documentid=364&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

Tommy Monk wrote:And of course weather needs to be hot to allow the forest fires to naturally occur in the first place... don't forget these trees are thousands ed years old and evolved the requirements for hot temperature and fires to survive long before human interaction...

Tommy Monk wrote:The heat is still needed to be hot enough and constant enough to naturally spark the fire in the first place...