Another lie by David Cameron
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Another lie by David Cameron
Another fairly hefty lie by David Cameron. 28% of new jobs created are Zero Hours jobs say ONS. Not the 2% he claims.
Guest- Guest
Re: Another lie by David Cameron
A few years ago, no one knew what a ‘selfie’ was. Since 2014, suddenly selfies are everywhere. Are people actually taking more pictures of themselves? Maybe. But the trends we see just show that people are using the term more, and it’s caught on.
A few years ago, you’d have struggled to see anything in the media about zero hours contracts. You might not even have heard of one. Now in the midst of the election campaign, it’s [url=http://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=zero hours contracts]hard not to be aware of them[/url].
That’s exactly why we can’t rely on figures that suggest the number of people on zero hours contracts has ‘soared’ or ‘boomed’ in the last few years.
These numbers start out by asking people about what type of employment they’re in. In 2012, 252,000 people were estimated to be on them, based on these survey responses. In 2013, it was 586,000. By the end of 2014, 697,000.
That might well be in part due to a genuine rise in the number of people on contracts like these. We don’t know. But the Office for National Statistics is clear that “the number of people who are shown as on a zero hours contract will [...] be affected by whether people know they are on a zero hours contract and will be affected by how aware they are of the concept.”
So graphs like this one, shared widely on Twitter
https://fullfact.org/live/2015/mar/zero_hours_contracts_trends_awareness-41135
Employment up but what kind of jobs are responsible?
[*]
All-time high employment: should you be impressed by 1.9 million?
[*]
Non-EU immigration: down by 13%?
[*]
Misquoted and misunderstood: have “one in four” people really had a mental health problem?
[*]
Zero reasons to compare zero hours contracts over time
The UK Statistics Authority has written to Labour MPs pointing out that they haven’t been presenting statistics on zero hour contracts entirely clearly.
Contrary to Labour’s suggestions, 1.8 million people are not ‘on zero hour contracts’ but rather around 1.8 million zero hour contracts were in use in August 2014.
The number of people with a zero hours contract in their main job was estimated to be 697,000 in October-December 2014. The discrepancy is explained by the facts that people can have more than one zero hours contract or have a zero hours contract as well as a different main job.
The ONS have pointed out that although the number of zero hour contracts estimated to exist rose from 1.4 million in January 2014 to 1.8 million in August, this may be due to seasonal variations. It certainly doesn’t imply that the number of people on zero hours contracts increased by 400,000.
For a fuller explanation of the facts about zero hour contracts, see our spotlight on the topic (here).
https://fullfact.org/live/2015/mar/zero_hour_contracts_UKSA-40500
A few years ago, you’d have struggled to see anything in the media about zero hours contracts. You might not even have heard of one. Now in the midst of the election campaign, it’s [url=http://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=zero hours contracts]hard not to be aware of them[/url].
That’s exactly why we can’t rely on figures that suggest the number of people on zero hours contracts has ‘soared’ or ‘boomed’ in the last few years.
These numbers start out by asking people about what type of employment they’re in. In 2012, 252,000 people were estimated to be on them, based on these survey responses. In 2013, it was 586,000. By the end of 2014, 697,000.
That might well be in part due to a genuine rise in the number of people on contracts like these. We don’t know. But the Office for National Statistics is clear that “the number of people who are shown as on a zero hours contract will [...] be affected by whether people know they are on a zero hours contract and will be affected by how aware they are of the concept.”
So graphs like this one, shared widely on Twitter
https://fullfact.org/live/2015/mar/zero_hours_contracts_trends_awareness-41135
Employment up but what kind of jobs are responsible?
[*]
All-time high employment: should you be impressed by 1.9 million?
[*]
Non-EU immigration: down by 13%?
[*]
Misquoted and misunderstood: have “one in four” people really had a mental health problem?
[*]
Zero reasons to compare zero hours contracts over time
The UK Statistics Authority has written to Labour MPs pointing out that they haven’t been presenting statistics on zero hour contracts entirely clearly.
Contrary to Labour’s suggestions, 1.8 million people are not ‘on zero hour contracts’ but rather around 1.8 million zero hour contracts were in use in August 2014.
The number of people with a zero hours contract in their main job was estimated to be 697,000 in October-December 2014. The discrepancy is explained by the facts that people can have more than one zero hours contract or have a zero hours contract as well as a different main job.
The ONS have pointed out that although the number of zero hour contracts estimated to exist rose from 1.4 million in January 2014 to 1.8 million in August, this may be due to seasonal variations. It certainly doesn’t imply that the number of people on zero hours contracts increased by 400,000.
For a fuller explanation of the facts about zero hour contracts, see our spotlight on the topic (here).
https://fullfact.org/live/2015/mar/zero_hour_contracts_UKSA-40500
Guest- Guest
Re: Another lie by David Cameron
And of course the other lie about being the fastest growing economy lol
If it comes out of a Tory mouth, it's a lie.
If it comes out of a Tory mouth, it's a lie.
Guest- Guest
Re: Another lie by David Cameron
lol a graph by lefties as evidence
PMSL at the desperation and lengths some antisemites will go to
PMSL at the desperation and lengths some antisemites will go to
Guest- Guest
Re: Another lie by David Cameron
If labour banned zero hour contracts, how many people would be out of work?
100 people on zero hour contracts, labour stops them, employers can not afford to keep 100 people on full pay so 50 are sacked to pay for the other 50 that are kept on in full pay!
100 people on zero hour contracts, labour stops them, employers can not afford to keep 100 people on full pay so 50 are sacked to pay for the other 50 that are kept on in full pay!
nicko- Forum Detective ????♀️
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Re: Another lie by David Cameron
You could justify slavery by the same argument, rather pathetic.
Guest- Guest
Re: Another lie by David Cameron
risingsun wrote:You could justify slavery by the same argument, rather pathetic.
OMG Slavery?
I know people on these contracts who are very happy.
See the complete out of line discourse by the left as bad as her antisemitism, now calling contracts slavery FFS
Guest- Guest
Re: Another lie by David Cameron
Ed Miliband has referred to an “epidemic of Zero Hours Contracts” in a speech today, claiming that three times as many people are on zero hours contracts than in 2010; that this represents a 20% increase in the last year alone; and that there are 1.8 million contracts without guaranteed hours.
The Conservatives counter that zero hours contracts account for just 1 in 50 jobs; and that only 2.3% of workers are on zero hours contracts.
What do the facts say?
Key points:
There is a wider argument here about job security, which affects more people:
Labour claim: “There are three times as many zero hour contracts now as 2010”
This is unjustified. The numbers are affected by greater awareness of zero hours contracts. Nobody knows how much of the increase really is more people on zero hours contracts, and how much is just increased awareness.
The Office for National Statistics explains:
“The number of people who are shown as on a zero hours contract will therefore be affected by whether people know they are on a zero hours contract and will be affected by how aware they are of the concept. The increased coverage of zero hours in the latter half of 2013 and are likely to have affected the response to this question and is explained in detail is the report: Analysis of Labour Force Survey estimates of people in employment reporting a zero-hours contract, April to June 2014.”
In other words, the Labour Party is talking about an increase that may partly be explained by the Labour Party talking about zero hours contracts.
Labour claim: “There has been a 20% increase in the number of people on zero hours contracts since last year.”
The same problem applies:
The Office for National Statistics’ release says (p1): “This figure is higher than that for October to December 2013 (586,000 or 1.9% of people in employment), but it is not possible to say how much of this increase is due to greater recognition of the term “zero hours contracts” rather than new contracts.“ [our emphasis]
Conservative claim: “zero hours contracts account for just 1 in 50 jobs and only 2.3% of workers are on zero hours contracts.”
The latest ONS release shows that people whose main employment is a zero hours contract account for 2.3% of people in employment. This is 1 in 43 (or to a round number 1 in 40).
It is not yet clear if the party means something different by ‘1 in 50 jobs’. It is not possible to calculate what proportion of jobs in the UK involve zero hours contracts because neither of the two measures of zero hours contract available — people or contracts — equate to one job. One person can have more than one job, and one job can have more than one contract.
If the Conservatives were referring to the proportion of contracts in the economy that don’t guarantee any hours (the 1.8m contracts Labour referred to), the ONS figure is 6%, or one in 17.
Finally, both measures from the ONS have wide confidence intervals. The number of people on zero hours contracts is likely to be between 630,000 and 765,000, while the number of contracts is likely to lie between 1.4 million and 2.2 million.
https://fullfact.org/factcheck/economy/zero_hour_contracts_facts-41165
The Conservatives counter that zero hours contracts account for just 1 in 50 jobs; and that only 2.3% of workers are on zero hours contracts.
What do the facts say?
Key points:
- The statistics do not and cannot show an “epidemic” in zero hours contracts. Comparisons of the number of people on zero hours contracts over time are not reliable, as the Office for National Statistics makes clear.
- The statistics do show that 66% of people on zero hours contracts fall in the category of ‘does not want more hours’. The statistics alone do not show that everybody on zero hours contracts, or even a majority of them, are dissatisfied.
- The latest ONS release shows that people whose main employment is a zero hours contract account for 2.3% of people in employment. This is 1 in 43 – or to a round number 1 in 40, not 1 in 50 as the Conservative Party has said.
There is a wider argument here about job security, which affects more people:
- Unemployment and employment rates have returned to pre-recession levels.
- But the proportion of people in part time employment because they could not find a full time job (16.2%) has not.
Labour claim: “There are three times as many zero hour contracts now as 2010”
This is unjustified. The numbers are affected by greater awareness of zero hours contracts. Nobody knows how much of the increase really is more people on zero hours contracts, and how much is just increased awareness.
The Office for National Statistics explains:
“The number of people who are shown as on a zero hours contract will therefore be affected by whether people know they are on a zero hours contract and will be affected by how aware they are of the concept. The increased coverage of zero hours in the latter half of 2013 and are likely to have affected the response to this question and is explained in detail is the report: Analysis of Labour Force Survey estimates of people in employment reporting a zero-hours contract, April to June 2014.”
In other words, the Labour Party is talking about an increase that may partly be explained by the Labour Party talking about zero hours contracts.
Labour claim: “There has been a 20% increase in the number of people on zero hours contracts since last year.”
The same problem applies:
The Office for National Statistics’ release says (p1): “This figure is higher than that for October to December 2013 (586,000 or 1.9% of people in employment), but it is not possible to say how much of this increase is due to greater recognition of the term “zero hours contracts” rather than new contracts.“ [our emphasis]
Conservative claim: “zero hours contracts account for just 1 in 50 jobs and only 2.3% of workers are on zero hours contracts.”
The latest ONS release shows that people whose main employment is a zero hours contract account for 2.3% of people in employment. This is 1 in 43 (or to a round number 1 in 40).
It is not yet clear if the party means something different by ‘1 in 50 jobs’. It is not possible to calculate what proportion of jobs in the UK involve zero hours contracts because neither of the two measures of zero hours contract available — people or contracts — equate to one job. One person can have more than one job, and one job can have more than one contract.
If the Conservatives were referring to the proportion of contracts in the economy that don’t guarantee any hours (the 1.8m contracts Labour referred to), the ONS figure is 6%, or one in 17.
Finally, both measures from the ONS have wide confidence intervals. The number of people on zero hours contracts is likely to be between 630,000 and 765,000, while the number of contracts is likely to lie between 1.4 million and 2.2 million.
https://fullfact.org/factcheck/economy/zero_hour_contracts_facts-41165
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