U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat

by Ben Reilly Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:13 am

This is breaking so I don't have a good source for it yet, but outlets are reporting that Tea Party Republican challenger David Brat has just knocked out one of the highest-ranking U.S. Republicans -- in the primary, which means that in order to even run for his seat, Cantor will have to run as an independent and give up the $2 million his party has banked for him to run for re-election.

Brat had $40,000 to run on according to a Washington Post story that ran earlier today.

Cantor was heavily favored to ... oh, I can't resist:

https://twitter.com/search?q=david%20brat&src=tyah

by Ben Reilly Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:16 am

David Brat is the type of person who thinks Cantor's vote to end the shutdown was a vote for Obamacare. So, you know, nuts.
— Simon Maloy (@SimonMaloy) June 11, 2014

by Ben Reilly Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:19 am

It was a sound beating, too:

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=CON&map=CTY

by veya_victaous Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:29 am

so is Brat a tea party nut? and he has beaten a regular republican?

interesting so teaparty may do a Ukip and split the RW vote?

by Ben Reilly Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:42 am

veya_victaous wrote:so is Brat a tea party nut? and he has beaten a regular republican?

interesting so teaparty may do a Ukip and split the RW vote?

Pretty much, in fact you could say it already has in this case. Brat will now go into the regular election for the House of Representatives seat that Cantor (the second-ranking Republican in the House) vacates. Way less name recognition, money or CV to take on the Democrat with than Cantor could have brought to the fight.

He's also going to be heavily scrutinized in the media after such a stunning upset, and it looks like this guy is virulently anti-immigration, so that could tend to hurt him in a moderate state like Virginia that Obama has won in each of his elections.

I hear there's now conjecture the the No. 1 House Republican, John Boehner, may slog it through the fall's election and then "step down" (I don't know if that means as Speaker of the House or entirely).

by Ben Reilly Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:47 am

U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat Politico_zpsdd7c1a5f

U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat Huffpo_zps09106ea3

Pretty BFD ...

by Cass Wed Jun 11, 2014 2:42 am

I dint know whether to celebrate cause his goose is cooked or cry that a TP person beat him........

by Ben Reilly Wed Jun 11, 2014 2:45 am

Cass wrote:I dint know whether to celebrate cause his goose is cooked or cry that a TP person beat him........

It'll be a lot tougher when he has to come up with more than 36 thousand total votes or so ...

Wait, how messed up is it that getting 36,000 votes is enough to knock down one of the most influential politicians in our country? :\\:[:

by Cass Wed Jun 11, 2014 3:04 am

Ben_Reilly wrote:
Cass wrote:I dint know whether to celebrate cause his goose is cooked or cry that a TP person beat him........

It'll be a lot tougher when he has to come up with more than 36 thousand total votes or so ...

Wait, how messed up is it that getting 36,000 votes is enough to knock down one of the most influential politicians in our country? :\\:[:

very.....

Still our system is better than others.....a bit....maybe....needs some reforms.....ok a lot....but still

Lindsey Graham won - deep joy.....hes so bi-partisan ain't he?

by Ben Reilly Wed Jun 11, 2014 4:31 am

Cass wrote:
Ben_Reilly wrote:
Cass wrote:I dint know whether to celebrate cause his goose is cooked or cry that a TP person beat him........

It'll be a lot tougher when he has to come up with more than 36 thousand total votes or so ...

Wait, how messed up is it that getting 36,000 votes is enough to knock down one of the most influential politicians in our country? :\\:[:

very.....

Still our system is better than others.....a bit....maybe....needs some reforms.....ok a lot....but still

Lindsey Graham won - deep joy.....hes so bi-partisan ain't he?

Heh-heh ... yeah.

Graham can pull out the rare surprise, but he's definitely one of the worst.

by Original Quill Wed Jun 11, 2014 5:15 am

This was a classic tea-partied Republican. The only thing interesting is that it happened to one of the three in congressional Republican leadership. Cantor was House Majority Leader.

There are thousands of different ways to judge this, politically. It could have been rejection of a Washington hack. Or anti-Jewish, as Virginia is southern and a bit KKK. It could have been over immigration, as Cantor was author of the latest House immigration bill. It might have been any of the other tea-party issues, bound with other concerns.

Only a tiny piece of it might be Americans are sick of Republicans trashing American government. But, you say, this was a loss to a tea partier. But it was also the first time in the 2014 election cycle that a turning District could reject Republican leadership.

There are a lot of ways to read it.

by Ben Reilly Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:12 am

Original Quill wrote:This was a classic tea-partied Republican. The only thing interesting is that it happened to one of the three in congressional Republican leadership. Cantor was House Majority Leader.

There are thousands of different ways to judge this, politically. It could have been rejection of a Washington hack. Or anti-Jewish, as Virginia is southern and a bit KKK. It could have been over immigration, as Cantor was author of the latest House immigration bill. It might have been any of the other tea-party issues, bound with other concerns.

Only a tiny piece of it might be Americans are sick of Republicans trashing American government. But, you say, this was a loss to a tea partier. But it was also the first time in the 2014 election cycle that a turning District could reject Republican leadership.

There are a lot of ways to read it.

Seems to be the consensus view that it was on immigration. The only thing new about the Republican getting Tea Partied here is that the Tea Party won ... but like I said, he got 36,000 some-odd total votes, so the Tea Partiers who are partying right now very well may not be when the real election rolls around ...

There is also a view circulating that the Democrats pulled an Operation Chaos on Cantor, and indeed one was encouraged by the guy who lost to Cantor the last time around. But you don't win by 11 points due to an Operation Chaos affair.

by Cass Wed Jun 11, 2014 4:49 pm

I do think this was a vote taken ala EU elections. a protest vote as it were. some saw Cantor as going too central or not hardlined enough and voted for the TP.
lets hope in the general direction that the Indies move towards the dems.

and karma has a good way of coming back to bite you in the ass.

by Original Quill Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:07 pm

Ben_Reilly wrote:
Original Quill wrote:This was a classic tea-partied Republican. The only thing interesting is that it happened to one of the three in congressional Republican leadership. Cantor was House Majority Leader.

There are thousands of different ways to judge this, politically. It could have been rejection of a Washington hack. Or anti-Jewish, as Virginia is southern and a bit KKK. It could have been over immigration, as Cantor was author of the latest House immigration bill. It might have been any of the other tea-party issues, bound with other concerns.

Only a tiny piece of it might be Americans are sick of Republicans trashing American government. But, you say, this was a loss to a tea partier. But it was also the first time in the 2014 election cycle that a turning District could reject Republican leadership.

There are a lot of ways to read it.

Seems to be the consensus view that it was on immigration. The only thing new about the Republican getting Tea Partied here is that the Tea Party won ... but like I said, he got 36,000 some-odd total votes, so the Tea Partiers who are partying right now very well may not be when the real election rolls around ...

There is also a view circulating that the Democrats pulled an Operation Chaos on Cantor, and indeed one was encouraged by the guy who lost to Cantor the last time around. But you don't win by 11 points due to an Operation Chaos affair.

Political pundits are not god. Look at Karl Rove calling the election for Romney in 2012. Hell, look at the press calling the election for Dewey over Truman in 1948. Immigration stands out because that is what the candidates in this race were most vocal about. But, notice, we are trying to find interpretation, not in the candidates intentions, but in the voters intentions. So I wouldn't be too quick to find meaning in the issue of immigration.

In fact, meaning of the voters might not be too easy to find in this case. Voters might not be too willing to talk about it. Look, say you are a Virginia voter and you listen to the candidates, see all the ads on TV and listen to neighbors...all before you vote. But then you go into that voter's booth and you are all alone and you are mulling over lots of things...but one thing sticks out in your mind: you are pissed that they shut down the government and it cost $12-billion unnecessarily, and Aunt Tilly was out of work for a week. Now, who did that...Republicans!!! And who is this guy? A Republican leader...one of the three big ones. You don't give a shit about the other guy. You don't give a hoot about immigration and all the ads. This is the first chance you have to shoot down a Republican leader for closing down the government, and you do it.

Nothing is a forgone conclusion when it comes to politics. Nor is it necessarily rational. And the pundits don't know anything more than you or I--they are paid to bring in TV revenue. Even the polls can be wrong. In a sensitive election like this you might vote for one reason, and give another reason in the exit poll....don't want your neighbor to know how you really feel.

Keep in mind that the essence of your question is why the VOTER did what s/he did. Not the candidate. Not Karl Rove. Not the Chicago Tribune. And not the cable news pundits or other candidates who are trying to calculate for themselves. When you are doing empirical science, always keep in mind what is your empirical question, and who or what is the empirical referent.

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U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat

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Re: U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat

Re: U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat

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Re: U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat

Re: U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat

Re: U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat

Re: U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat

Re: U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat

Re: U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor loses primary to Tea Party candidate David Brat