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Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 1:48 pm
First topic message reminder :
Hello and welcome to today’s big questions. When are (a) 29% a triumph, (b) 30% defeat and (c) 31% disaster?
The answers, of course, are (a) 2014, (b) 2010 and (c) 1997. 29% is Ukip’s current support in this month’s elections to the European Parliament. It is vying for first place, an outcome that Nigel Farage calls a political earthquake. 30% was Labour’s share of the vote when it was ejected from power four years ago; 31% spelt catastrophe for the Conservatives in 1997.
These comparisons are to some extent unfair to Ukip. The European elections are fought under a proportional voting system: measures of success and failure are different from the first-past-the-post system by which we elect House of Commons. And for a party with no MPs to have a real chance of coming first in a national contest is a remarkable achievement.
However, the comparison with past general elections helps to make the point that the public mood is not wholly captured by stories of “Ukip triumph”. Thus Nigel Farage has easily the highest rating of any Britain-wide party leader – yet most people think is party harbours racists; and Ukip’s recent surge has coincided with a rise, not fall, in support for Britain remaining in the European Union.
In the past ten days, YouGov has questioned more than 9,000 people about the coming elections, on behalf of the Sun, Sunday Times and Sun on Sunday. Taken, together they show Ukip (29%) neck-and-neck with Labour (28%), with the Conservatives on 21%, the Liberal Democrats 9%, Greens 8%, SNP/Plaid Cymru 3% and BNP 1%. Such a result would, indeed, be a triumph for Farage.
However, it would not justify the assertion that Britons reject the EU. We see this if we rearrange those figures into support for each party’s basic stance on the EU:
Parties that definitely want Britain to stay in the EU (Labour, Lib Dem, SNP/PC): 40%
Parties that want Britain to stay in a significantly changed EU (Conservatives, Greens): 29%
Parties that want Britain to leave the EU (Ukip, BNP): 30%
Those figures may be somewhat different in the election itself: if this month’s European Parliament elections follow the pattern of the last two, there could be a further surge in Ukip support. But for the moment it would be wrong to conclude that Ukip’s strong showing reflects an overwhelming desire to leave the EU. And it is perfectly possible for Ukip to come first and for a clear majority of Britons to criticise the party for attracting racists.
Separately, Farage should not claim that his party is winning votes from Labour on anything like the scale that it is taking them from the Conservatives. The 9,000 people we have questioned recently include almost 2,000 who intend voting Ukip. Almost half of them (49%) voted Conservative on 2010, while just 14% of them voted Labour and 15% Lib Dem.
How does this square with Ukip coming second in a series of by-elections in this Parliament in safe Labour seats in northern England? Simple: the party mainly mopped up the anti-Labour vote; Labour’s own share rose significantly in almost every contest. There is patchy evidence of Ukip eating into Labour’s support in some local council elections but – so far – nothing more than that.
Our large combined sample also allows us to gauge Ukip’s support among different groups. This is what we found:
Politically, of course, the most striking fact is that among those who voted Conservative in 2010 and intend voting this month, fully 42% plan to back Ukip. That is why the Tories look destined to come third in a Britain-wide election for the first time in their history.
Thus the pattern persists of Ukip appealing especially to men and to older and working class voters. And, as in 2009, Ukip is doing less well in London, and far less well in Scotland, than in the rest of Britain.
This is how the supporters in 2010 of all three main parties plan to vote this time (again, excluding don’t knows and won’t votes):
However, even Labour cannot crow too loudly that it enjoys the highest loyalty rate of the three main parties. 2010 was a terrible result. It was down to little more than its core vote. Yet of those who intend to vote this month, one in three plans to switch parties. Yes of course, this is a secondary, low-turnout contest fought under a different voting system. It is a chance to let off steam, not an occasion to decide who governs Britain. Even so, Labour must have hoped, and perhaps hopes still, to retain the loyalties of more of those people who wanted Gordon Brown to remain prime minister four years ago.
Those figures confirm that the Conservatives have by far the largest problem with Ukip – but the Lib Dems have the weakest loyalty figures of all. The difference is that former Lib Dem voters are heading all over the place – to Labour and the Greens in significant numbers and even (though rather fewer) to the Conservatives.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/peter-kellner/ukip-rise-in-popularity_b_5273232.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
Hello and welcome to today’s big questions. When are (a) 29% a triumph, (b) 30% defeat and (c) 31% disaster?
The answers, of course, are (a) 2014, (b) 2010 and (c) 1997. 29% is Ukip’s current support in this month’s elections to the European Parliament. It is vying for first place, an outcome that Nigel Farage calls a political earthquake. 30% was Labour’s share of the vote when it was ejected from power four years ago; 31% spelt catastrophe for the Conservatives in 1997.
These comparisons are to some extent unfair to Ukip. The European elections are fought under a proportional voting system: measures of success and failure are different from the first-past-the-post system by which we elect House of Commons. And for a party with no MPs to have a real chance of coming first in a national contest is a remarkable achievement.
However, the comparison with past general elections helps to make the point that the public mood is not wholly captured by stories of “Ukip triumph”. Thus Nigel Farage has easily the highest rating of any Britain-wide party leader – yet most people think is party harbours racists; and Ukip’s recent surge has coincided with a rise, not fall, in support for Britain remaining in the European Union.
In the past ten days, YouGov has questioned more than 9,000 people about the coming elections, on behalf of the Sun, Sunday Times and Sun on Sunday. Taken, together they show Ukip (29%) neck-and-neck with Labour (28%), with the Conservatives on 21%, the Liberal Democrats 9%, Greens 8%, SNP/Plaid Cymru 3% and BNP 1%. Such a result would, indeed, be a triumph for Farage.
However, it would not justify the assertion that Britons reject the EU. We see this if we rearrange those figures into support for each party’s basic stance on the EU:
Parties that definitely want Britain to stay in the EU (Labour, Lib Dem, SNP/PC): 40%
Parties that want Britain to stay in a significantly changed EU (Conservatives, Greens): 29%
Parties that want Britain to leave the EU (Ukip, BNP): 30%
Those figures may be somewhat different in the election itself: if this month’s European Parliament elections follow the pattern of the last two, there could be a further surge in Ukip support. But for the moment it would be wrong to conclude that Ukip’s strong showing reflects an overwhelming desire to leave the EU. And it is perfectly possible for Ukip to come first and for a clear majority of Britons to criticise the party for attracting racists.
Separately, Farage should not claim that his party is winning votes from Labour on anything like the scale that it is taking them from the Conservatives. The 9,000 people we have questioned recently include almost 2,000 who intend voting Ukip. Almost half of them (49%) voted Conservative on 2010, while just 14% of them voted Labour and 15% Lib Dem.
How does this square with Ukip coming second in a series of by-elections in this Parliament in safe Labour seats in northern England? Simple: the party mainly mopped up the anti-Labour vote; Labour’s own share rose significantly in almost every contest. There is patchy evidence of Ukip eating into Labour’s support in some local council elections but – so far – nothing more than that.
Our large combined sample also allows us to gauge Ukip’s support among different groups. This is what we found:
Politically, of course, the most striking fact is that among those who voted Conservative in 2010 and intend voting this month, fully 42% plan to back Ukip. That is why the Tories look destined to come third in a Britain-wide election for the first time in their history.
Thus the pattern persists of Ukip appealing especially to men and to older and working class voters. And, as in 2009, Ukip is doing less well in London, and far less well in Scotland, than in the rest of Britain.
This is how the supporters in 2010 of all three main parties plan to vote this time (again, excluding don’t knows and won’t votes):
However, even Labour cannot crow too loudly that it enjoys the highest loyalty rate of the three main parties. 2010 was a terrible result. It was down to little more than its core vote. Yet of those who intend to vote this month, one in three plans to switch parties. Yes of course, this is a secondary, low-turnout contest fought under a different voting system. It is a chance to let off steam, not an occasion to decide who governs Britain. Even so, Labour must have hoped, and perhaps hopes still, to retain the loyalties of more of those people who wanted Gordon Brown to remain prime minister four years ago.
Those figures confirm that the Conservatives have by far the largest problem with Ukip – but the Lib Dems have the weakest loyalty figures of all. The difference is that former Lib Dem voters are heading all over the place – to Labour and the Greens in significant numbers and even (though rather fewer) to the Conservatives.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/peter-kellner/ukip-rise-in-popularity_b_5273232.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 5:21 pm
This report demonstrates that the policing and prosecutions of drug possession offences in England and Wales is unduly focussed on black and minority communities. This report looks at racial disparity rates at stop and search, arrest, prosecution and sentencing and clearly demonstrates that the drug laws in the UK are a major driver of the disproportionality that exists in our criminal justice system in relation to the black community.
DRUG POLICING DISCRIMINATES AGAINST BLACK AND MINORITY ETHNIC GROUPS DESPITE THEIR LOWER RATES OF DRUG USE, A NEW REPORT REVEALS.
A report launched by LSE and Release today shows that drug policing is dominating stop and search, that much of this activity is focused on low level drug possession offences, and that black and Asian people are being disproportionately targeted. Niamh Eastwood, Executive Director of Release and co-author of the report, states “this research shows that stop and search is not about finding guns or knives but about the police going out and actively looking for people who are in possession of a small amount of drugs, mainly cannabis”.
Michael Shiner, co-author of the report and a senior lecturer in the department of social policy at the London School of Economics said: “It’s shocking that police officers are spending so much time targeting minor drug offences, rather than focusing on more serious matters. This is not the result of a carefully considered strategy, but is the unintended consequence of reforms that have created a perverse incentive structure, rewarding officers for going after easy pickings rather than doing good police work. While it is hard to see any benefits in terms of tackling serious crime or promoting public safety, there are real costs, including unnecessary infringements on people’s liberty, discrimination against minorities and loss of trust and confidence in the police.“
Eastwood goes on to say: “Black people are more likely to get a criminal record than white people, are more likely to be taken to court and are more likely to be fined or imprisoned for drug offences because of the way in which they are policed, rather than because they are more likely to use drugs. Despite calls for police reform of stop and search little has changed in the last 3 decades, this is why the Government needs to take action and change the law. Decriminalisation of drug possession offences would end the needless stop and search of hundreds of thousands of innocent people every year and eliminate a significant source of discrimination with all its damaging consequences.”
Read the press release here.
DRUG POLICING DISCRIMINATES AGAINST BLACK AND MINORITY ETHNIC GROUPS DESPITE THEIR LOWER RATES OF DRUG USE, A NEW REPORT REVEALS.
A report launched by LSE and Release today shows that drug policing is dominating stop and search, that much of this activity is focused on low level drug possession offences, and that black and Asian people are being disproportionately targeted. Niamh Eastwood, Executive Director of Release and co-author of the report, states “this research shows that stop and search is not about finding guns or knives but about the police going out and actively looking for people who are in possession of a small amount of drugs, mainly cannabis”.
- Over 50% of stop and searches are for drugs, 10% are for offensive weapons and less than 1% are for guns .
- The police in England and Wales stop and search someone for drugs every 58 seconds.
- Of the more than half million stop and searches for drugs carried out in 2009/10 only 7% resulted in arrest.
- In 2009/10 there were 10 stop and searches for drugs for every 1,000 people in England and Wales. Black people were stopped and searched for drugs at 6.3 times the rate of white people, while Asian people were stopped and searched for drugs at 2.5 times the rate and those identifying as mixed race were stopped and searched for drugs at twice the rate of white people. This is despite the fact that drug use is lower amongst black and Asian people when compared to their white counterparts .
- Black people are arrested for a drugs offence at 6 times the rate of white people, and Asian people are arrested at almost twice the rate of the white.
- Black people are more likely to receive a harsher police response for possession of drugs . In 2009/10 78% of black people caught in possession of cocaine by the Metropolitan Police were charged for this offence and only 22% received cautions. In comparison 44% of white people were charged for the same offence and 56% received cautions.
- Black people caught in possession of cannabis by the Metropolitan Police are less likely to receive a cannabis warning than white people, and are charged at 5 times the rate of whites.
- Prosecutions for drug possession are at an all-time high and this is primarily being driven by cannabis possession. In 2010, the Crown Prosecution Service brought more prosecutions for possession of drugs than in any other year since the introduction of the Misuse of Drugs Act 1971 - 43,406 people were found guilty of drug possession. 60% of these prosecutions were for cannabis.
- Black people are subject to court proceedings for drug possession offences at 4.5 times the rate of whites, are found guilty of this offence at 4.5 times the rate, and are subject to immediate custody at 5 times the rate of white people.
- Once they have been taken to court black people are less likely to be given a suspended prison sentence for drug offences than white people.
- Every year approximately 80,000 people in England and Wales are convicted or cautioned for possession of drugs. In the 15 year period, 1996 to 2011, 1.2 million criminal records have been generated as a result of drug possession laws.
Michael Shiner, co-author of the report and a senior lecturer in the department of social policy at the London School of Economics said: “It’s shocking that police officers are spending so much time targeting minor drug offences, rather than focusing on more serious matters. This is not the result of a carefully considered strategy, but is the unintended consequence of reforms that have created a perverse incentive structure, rewarding officers for going after easy pickings rather than doing good police work. While it is hard to see any benefits in terms of tackling serious crime or promoting public safety, there are real costs, including unnecessary infringements on people’s liberty, discrimination against minorities and loss of trust and confidence in the police.“
Eastwood goes on to say: “Black people are more likely to get a criminal record than white people, are more likely to be taken to court and are more likely to be fined or imprisoned for drug offences because of the way in which they are policed, rather than because they are more likely to use drugs. Despite calls for police reform of stop and search little has changed in the last 3 decades, this is why the Government needs to take action and change the law. Decriminalisation of drug possession offences would end the needless stop and search of hundreds of thousands of innocent people every year and eliminate a significant source of discrimination with all its damaging consequences.”
Read the press release here.
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 5:25 pm
I want actual numbers dodge.
Total stop and searches each year and total for whites/blacks.
I have moved this onto other thread as this is a UKIP thread. Not stop and search.
Total stop and searches each year and total for whites/blacks.
I have moved this onto other thread as this is a UKIP thread. Not stop and search.
Tommy Monk- Forum Detective ????♀️
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Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 5:26 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:I want actual numbers dodge.
Total stop and searches each year and total for whites/blacks.
I have moved this onto other thread as this is a UKIP thread. Not stop and search.
Yes run away because you got schooled ha ha
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 5:56 pm
Never run away from you dodge, you are a twat, and it's too much fun showing up your bullshit arguments.
This is continuing on the stop and search thread as you know, not hijacking this thread.
This is continuing on the stop and search thread as you know, not hijacking this thread.
Tommy Monk- Forum Detective ????♀️
- Posts : 26319
Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 6:03 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Never run away from you dodge, you are a twat, and it's too much fun showing up your bullshit arguments.
This is continuing on the stop and search thread as you know, not hijacking this thread.
Yes we know you got your arse kicked, now go and get an education my dim little prejudice friend, because ignorance seems to thrive in your beliefs
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 6:16 pm
I just passed some more exams thank you dodge, and these only have a 30% pass rate nationally!!!
But while I'm here I will happily educate you out of your lefties brain washing....!
But while I'm here I will happily educate you out of your lefties brain washing....!
Tommy Monk- Forum Detective ????♀️
- Posts : 26319
Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 6:19 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:I just passed some more exams thank you dodge, and these only have a 30% pass rate nationally!!!
But while I'm here I will happily educate you out of your lefties brain washing....!
Was that the ABC by any chance?
Bravo, next the 2 x times table, good luck
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 6:38 pm
No it's you lefties who have trouble understanding basic maths and English.
That's why you always fuck the economy up and get it wrong on the real level of immigration.
Your mate fleakeeper/wolf can't even add up to 8!!!!
But never mind, I am here to put you all straight when you start posting up waffle and misleading figures.
That's why you always fuck the economy up and get it wrong on the real level of immigration.
Your mate fleakeeper/wolf can't even add up to 8!!!!
But never mind, I am here to put you all straight when you start posting up waffle and misleading figures.
Tommy Monk- Forum Detective ????♀️
- Posts : 26319
Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 6:43 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:No it's you lefties who have trouble understanding basic maths and English.
That's why you always fuck the economy up and get it wrong on the real level of immigration.
Your mate fleakeeper/wolf can't even add up to 8!!!!
But never mind, I am here to put you all straight when you start posting up waffle and misleading figures.
The economy is doing great, so how is it that it is fucked up, being as I am a Tory who are center right and not left shows even more that you need an education. The fact you follow a party that claims to be libertarian is also hilarious.
I ma not sure you have put anyone straight, so he left out posting 1/8 of his ethnicity, does not mean he cannot count does it?
You see this is why you are brainless as you always assume wrong and never take into consideration other possibilities
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 6:50 pm
But never mind, I am here to put you all straight when you start posting up waffle and misleading figures.
Tommy Monk- Forum Detective ????♀️
- Posts : 26319
Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 6:56 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:
But never mind, I am here to put you all straight when you start posting up waffle and misleading figures.
Says it all really ha ha ha
Guest- Guest
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