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Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 1:48 pm
Hello and welcome to today’s big questions. When are (a) 29% a triumph, (b) 30% defeat and (c) 31% disaster?
The answers, of course, are (a) 2014, (b) 2010 and (c) 1997. 29% is Ukip’s current support in this month’s elections to the European Parliament. It is vying for first place, an outcome that Nigel Farage calls a political earthquake. 30% was Labour’s share of the vote when it was ejected from power four years ago; 31% spelt catastrophe for the Conservatives in 1997.
These comparisons are to some extent unfair to Ukip. The European elections are fought under a proportional voting system: measures of success and failure are different from the first-past-the-post system by which we elect House of Commons. And for a party with no MPs to have a real chance of coming first in a national contest is a remarkable achievement.
However, the comparison with past general elections helps to make the point that the public mood is not wholly captured by stories of “Ukip triumph”. Thus Nigel Farage has easily the highest rating of any Britain-wide party leader – yet most people think is party harbours racists; and Ukip’s recent surge has coincided with a rise, not fall, in support for Britain remaining in the European Union.
In the past ten days, YouGov has questioned more than 9,000 people about the coming elections, on behalf of the Sun, Sunday Times and Sun on Sunday. Taken, together they show Ukip (29%) neck-and-neck with Labour (28%), with the Conservatives on 21%, the Liberal Democrats 9%, Greens 8%, SNP/Plaid Cymru 3% and BNP 1%. Such a result would, indeed, be a triumph for Farage.
However, it would not justify the assertion that Britons reject the EU. We see this if we rearrange those figures into support for each party’s basic stance on the EU:
Parties that definitely want Britain to stay in the EU (Labour, Lib Dem, SNP/PC): 40%
Parties that want Britain to stay in a significantly changed EU (Conservatives, Greens): 29%
Parties that want Britain to leave the EU (Ukip, BNP): 30%
Those figures may be somewhat different in the election itself: if this month’s European Parliament elections follow the pattern of the last two, there could be a further surge in Ukip support. But for the moment it would be wrong to conclude that Ukip’s strong showing reflects an overwhelming desire to leave the EU. And it is perfectly possible for Ukip to come first and for a clear majority of Britons to criticise the party for attracting racists.
Separately, Farage should not claim that his party is winning votes from Labour on anything like the scale that it is taking them from the Conservatives. The 9,000 people we have questioned recently include almost 2,000 who intend voting Ukip. Almost half of them (49%) voted Conservative on 2010, while just 14% of them voted Labour and 15% Lib Dem.
How does this square with Ukip coming second in a series of by-elections in this Parliament in safe Labour seats in northern England? Simple: the party mainly mopped up the anti-Labour vote; Labour’s own share rose significantly in almost every contest. There is patchy evidence of Ukip eating into Labour’s support in some local council elections but – so far – nothing more than that.
Our large combined sample also allows us to gauge Ukip’s support among different groups. This is what we found:
Politically, of course, the most striking fact is that among those who voted Conservative in 2010 and intend voting this month, fully 42% plan to back Ukip. That is why the Tories look destined to come third in a Britain-wide election for the first time in their history.
Thus the pattern persists of Ukip appealing especially to men and to older and working class voters. And, as in 2009, Ukip is doing less well in London, and far less well in Scotland, than in the rest of Britain.
This is how the supporters in 2010 of all three main parties plan to vote this time (again, excluding don’t knows and won’t votes):
However, even Labour cannot crow too loudly that it enjoys the highest loyalty rate of the three main parties. 2010 was a terrible result. It was down to little more than its core vote. Yet of those who intend to vote this month, one in three plans to switch parties. Yes of course, this is a secondary, low-turnout contest fought under a different voting system. It is a chance to let off steam, not an occasion to decide who governs Britain. Even so, Labour must have hoped, and perhaps hopes still, to retain the loyalties of more of those people who wanted Gordon Brown to remain prime minister four years ago.
Those figures confirm that the Conservatives have by far the largest problem with Ukip – but the Lib Dems have the weakest loyalty figures of all. The difference is that former Lib Dem voters are heading all over the place – to Labour and the Greens in significant numbers and even (though rather fewer) to the Conservatives.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/peter-kellner/ukip-rise-in-popularity_b_5273232.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
The answers, of course, are (a) 2014, (b) 2010 and (c) 1997. 29% is Ukip’s current support in this month’s elections to the European Parliament. It is vying for first place, an outcome that Nigel Farage calls a political earthquake. 30% was Labour’s share of the vote when it was ejected from power four years ago; 31% spelt catastrophe for the Conservatives in 1997.
These comparisons are to some extent unfair to Ukip. The European elections are fought under a proportional voting system: measures of success and failure are different from the first-past-the-post system by which we elect House of Commons. And for a party with no MPs to have a real chance of coming first in a national contest is a remarkable achievement.
However, the comparison with past general elections helps to make the point that the public mood is not wholly captured by stories of “Ukip triumph”. Thus Nigel Farage has easily the highest rating of any Britain-wide party leader – yet most people think is party harbours racists; and Ukip’s recent surge has coincided with a rise, not fall, in support for Britain remaining in the European Union.
In the past ten days, YouGov has questioned more than 9,000 people about the coming elections, on behalf of the Sun, Sunday Times and Sun on Sunday. Taken, together they show Ukip (29%) neck-and-neck with Labour (28%), with the Conservatives on 21%, the Liberal Democrats 9%, Greens 8%, SNP/Plaid Cymru 3% and BNP 1%. Such a result would, indeed, be a triumph for Farage.
However, it would not justify the assertion that Britons reject the EU. We see this if we rearrange those figures into support for each party’s basic stance on the EU:
Parties that definitely want Britain to stay in the EU (Labour, Lib Dem, SNP/PC): 40%
Parties that want Britain to stay in a significantly changed EU (Conservatives, Greens): 29%
Parties that want Britain to leave the EU (Ukip, BNP): 30%
Those figures may be somewhat different in the election itself: if this month’s European Parliament elections follow the pattern of the last two, there could be a further surge in Ukip support. But for the moment it would be wrong to conclude that Ukip’s strong showing reflects an overwhelming desire to leave the EU. And it is perfectly possible for Ukip to come first and for a clear majority of Britons to criticise the party for attracting racists.
Separately, Farage should not claim that his party is winning votes from Labour on anything like the scale that it is taking them from the Conservatives. The 9,000 people we have questioned recently include almost 2,000 who intend voting Ukip. Almost half of them (49%) voted Conservative on 2010, while just 14% of them voted Labour and 15% Lib Dem.
How does this square with Ukip coming second in a series of by-elections in this Parliament in safe Labour seats in northern England? Simple: the party mainly mopped up the anti-Labour vote; Labour’s own share rose significantly in almost every contest. There is patchy evidence of Ukip eating into Labour’s support in some local council elections but – so far – nothing more than that.
Our large combined sample also allows us to gauge Ukip’s support among different groups. This is what we found:
Politically, of course, the most striking fact is that among those who voted Conservative in 2010 and intend voting this month, fully 42% plan to back Ukip. That is why the Tories look destined to come third in a Britain-wide election for the first time in their history.
Thus the pattern persists of Ukip appealing especially to men and to older and working class voters. And, as in 2009, Ukip is doing less well in London, and far less well in Scotland, than in the rest of Britain.
This is how the supporters in 2010 of all three main parties plan to vote this time (again, excluding don’t knows and won’t votes):
However, even Labour cannot crow too loudly that it enjoys the highest loyalty rate of the three main parties. 2010 was a terrible result. It was down to little more than its core vote. Yet of those who intend to vote this month, one in three plans to switch parties. Yes of course, this is a secondary, low-turnout contest fought under a different voting system. It is a chance to let off steam, not an occasion to decide who governs Britain. Even so, Labour must have hoped, and perhaps hopes still, to retain the loyalties of more of those people who wanted Gordon Brown to remain prime minister four years ago.
Those figures confirm that the Conservatives have by far the largest problem with Ukip – but the Lib Dems have the weakest loyalty figures of all. The difference is that former Lib Dem voters are heading all over the place – to Labour and the Greens in significant numbers and even (though rather fewer) to the Conservatives.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/peter-kellner/ukip-rise-in-popularity_b_5273232.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 2:39 pm
Article by:
Peter Kellner President of YouGov, political commentator and journalist
DOH
Peter Kellner President of YouGov, political commentator and journalist
DOH
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 6:42 pm
smelly_bandit wrote:MORE LEFTIES SHITTING THEIR PANTS
Actually it is showing nobody is shitting their pants, most people do not want to leave the EU and most people know come a general election UKIP will win little seats, as the economy will be the driving factor behind them getting little support
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Wed May 07, 2014 7:02 pm
Bullshit dodge, most people do want to leave the EU, you are deluded by spinning the figures to suggest that!
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 7:04 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Bullshit dodge, most people do want to leave the EU, you are deluded by spinning the figures to suggest that!
As seen you are very wrong and just shows how also your perceptions are very poor artful dodger
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Wed May 07, 2014 7:13 pm
You are the dodger dodge!
Just look at your stupidity on the stop and search thread!
Bell end!
Just look at your stupidity on the stop and search thread!
Bell end!
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 7:15 pm
You mean where you failed to answer any points and ignored every point making your case look stupid, yes that is why you are the artful dodger, again most people do not want out of the EU, you also want people to negotiate.
There, there little one, not my fault you have an IQ of 85
::D::
There, there little one, not my fault you have an IQ of 85
::D::
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Wed May 07, 2014 7:29 pm
You posted irrelevant points and waffle that didn't answer any of my points, and you failed to answer any of my questions. While I answered yours many times over only to be accused of not answering.
Quite childish behaviour really dodge, but you do act silly when losing debate.
Either silly or complete tantrums, shouting and swearing at everyone and deleting your account as we've seen before....!
Quite childish behaviour really dodge, but you do act silly when losing debate.
Either silly or complete tantrums, shouting and swearing at everyone and deleting your account as we've seen before....!
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 7:35 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:You posted irrelevant points and waffle that didn't answer any of my points, and you failed to answer any of my questions. While I answered yours many times over only to be accused of not answering.
Quite childish behaviour really dodge, but you do act silly when losing debate.
Either silly or complete tantrums, shouting and swearing at everyone and deleting your account as we've seen before....!
We all have seen you twist and turn from the mounting evidence presented to you, hence my joy at watching you write countless new posts whilst still ignoring all the points, it showed you up for being so inept and having a racial agenda, where even worse you ignore all the social reasons behind crime, Glasgow was the big give away, which left you looking the dummy, but you did not even twig that
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Wed May 07, 2014 7:48 pm
In fact Glasgow being brought up ended up making you and iron look the twats, as firstly, it's not about causes of crime dodge, it is about police responding to ACTUAL crime. Of which stop and search is dictated by crimes committed and descriptions.
And secondly, in Glasgow most violent and street crimes are overwhelmingly done by young white men and It is overwhelmingly young white men who are subject of stop and search.
Wheras in London, young black men are overwhelmingly responsible for massively disproportionate levels of crime and It is young black men who are the overwhelmingly the subject of stop and search.
Proving police are responding to crimes the same and not just picking on the blacks cos they is black bullshit.
I've told you before dodge, if you want to get clever with me, you have to back it up with some actual intelligence.....!
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 7:52 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:
In fact Glasgow being brought up ended up making you and iron look the twats, as firstly, it's not about causes of crime dodge, it is about police responding to ACTUAL crime. Of which stop and search is dictated by crimes committed and descriptions.
Actually it proved you do not understand deprivation and crime, it really showed you were a right wally
And secondly, in Glasgow most violent and street crimes are overwhelmingly done by young white men and It is overwhelmingly young white men who are subject of stop and search.
Yes again from deprived areas, something you neglected which shows you view on skin colour redundent
Wheras in London, young black men are overwhelmingly responsible for massively disproportionate levels of crime and It is young black men who are the overwhelmingly the subject of stop and search.
From deprived areas thus proving skin colour is not the factor, which the funniest part is you cannot see yet
Proving police are responding to crimes the same and not just picking on the blacks cos they is black bullshit.
But Police are not responding when there is a disparity in who they stop and search of which evidence showed only 9% leads to arrests of which again because countless more whites commit crimes they are ignoring a vast chunk of criminals from stop and search, let alone those they let off who are white, you ignore this at every turn because it debunks your racial hypothesis
I've told you before dodge, if you want to get clever with me, you have to back it up with some actual intelligence.....!
As seen nothing you posted was intelligent, the makings of an IQ of 85
://?roflmao?/:
:-:cawg:-:
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Wed May 07, 2014 8:15 pm
Dodge it proves that the stop and search in different areas is targeting those matching the descriptions of crimes carried out, and nothing more.
And your last bit is pure gobbledegook.
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 8:17 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:
Dodge it proves that the stop and search in different areas is targeting those matching the descriptions of crimes carried out, and nothing more.
And your last bit is pure gobbledegook.
No it does not because you do not even show the break down of stop and search, you are making assumptions again and as seen 9% lead to arrests of which we know of these are also biased, so again it proves your claims are unfounded
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Wed May 07, 2014 8:33 pm
9% arrests and more importantly showing a presence and authority on streets and acting as a deterrent to others who might otherwise be up to no good.
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Wed May 07, 2014 8:36 pm
9% arrests and more importantly showing a presence and authority on streets and acting as a deterrent to others who might otherwise be up to no good.
Also area in Scotland Glasgow with high crime being done by young white men, police are stopping and searching young white men.
Area in London with high crime being done by young black men, police are stopping and searching young black men.
Cause and effect.
Also area in Scotland Glasgow with high crime being done by young white men, police are stopping and searching young white men.
Area in London with high crime being done by young black men, police are stopping and searching young black men.
Cause and effect.
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 8:38 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:9% arrests and more importantly showing a presence and authority on streets and acting as a deterrent to others who might otherwise be up to no good.
Again you ignore that the arrests are also biased, showing how your view is flawed and deterrent is one thing, which I am all for, stopping people based on skin colour is not only poor but also flawed when whites vastly commit crime in Britain.
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Wed May 07, 2014 8:54 pm
Arrests are not biased you twat, police are stopping and reaching people suspected of or matching description of someone involved in crime and In 9% of time results in arrerting someone for an actual crime.
Do you have a problem with police arresting criminals now?
Unbelievable!
Do you have a problem with police arresting criminals now?
Unbelievable!
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 8:59 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Arrests are not biased you twat, police are stopping and reaching people suspected of or matching description of someone involved in crime and In 9% of time results in arrerting someone for an actual crime.
Do you have a problem with police arresting criminals now?
Unbelievable!
Really as seen they let off whites who are criminals with out even arresting them for crimes dummy, the point you miss, when whites vastly commit more crimes, this has been proven also, so clearly it is you the one that has a problem with the Police doing their job properly when as seen they are not.
Yes your answers are increasingly unbelievable and stupid
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Wed May 07, 2014 9:12 pm
They let off whites for crimes without even arresting them?????
Where do you get this bullshit from dodge?
What are you talking about?
What a twat!
Where do you get this bullshit from dodge?
What are you talking about?
What a twat!
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Wed May 07, 2014 10:30 pm
The dodging prophet spring the forum with his predictions again is he??
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Ben Reilly Thu May 08, 2014 5:25 am
Seems that the British are going through the same thing we went through in the U.S. in 2009-10, with the Tea Party.
The Tea Party enjoyed a brief moment in the sun as well, I'm betting it will pass as it did in the U.S. and that people will eventually return to their senses.
Or hell, I don't know -- maybe they really are just that pissed off about gay marriage and halal pizza ...
The Tea Party enjoyed a brief moment in the sun as well, I'm betting it will pass as it did in the U.S. and that people will eventually return to their senses.
Or hell, I don't know -- maybe they really are just that pissed off about gay marriage and halal pizza ...
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by veya_victaous Thu May 08, 2014 5:32 am
http://www.jewishproblem.com/page/4/
LOL Irony found by accident
LOL Irony found by accident
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 7:01 am
Tommy Monk wrote:They let off whites for crimes without even arresting them?????
Where do you get this bullshit from dodge?
What are you talking about?
What a twat!
Very easy by the stats, white commit vastly more crimes and are let off not only on the same crimes in the justice system but also by the Police, showing you are the real idiot. If the Police as seen are racist in stop and search and the evidence points to the same in arrests. Its not difficult, the justice system has been found guilty of doing this, the Police guilty of poor stop and searches that lead to few arrests
Sorry we all know you are the racist numpty sunshine, as well as very homophobic and very xenophobic, clearly your whole life is led by prejudice, about time you had a long look at yourself, as being angry all the time is not working
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24942641
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 3:54 pm
Fuck me!
A couple of Aussies and a yank telling us who we have to vote for in our own country!
And one of those twats can't even add up to 8!
Unbelievable!
And dodge, white British commit more overall crimes, but less crimes per capita, compared to blacks and asian/muslems.
That's why they are an under represented group in prisons.
You cherry pick and mix your out of context and misleading figures to support a claim of pure fantasy.
You confuse overall figures with percentages.
A couple of Aussies and a yank telling us who we have to vote for in our own country!
And one of those twats can't even add up to 8!
Unbelievable!
And dodge, white British commit more overall crimes, but less crimes per capita, compared to blacks and asian/muslems.
That's why they are an under represented group in prisons.
You cherry pick and mix your out of context and misleading figures to support a claim of pure fantasy.
You confuse overall figures with percentages.
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 3:58 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Fuck me!
A couple of Aussies and a yank telling us who we have to vote for in our own country!
And one of those twats can't even add up to 8!
Unbelievable!
And dodge, white British commit more overall crimes, but less crimes per capita, compared to blacks and asian/muslems.
That's why they are an under represented group in prisons.
You cherry pick and mix your out of context and misleading figures to support a claim of pure fantasy.
You confuse overall figures with percentages.
Unbelievable, so whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it and Matti thus justifies poor polcies based off skin colour and is trying to argue for inequality. Not only does he admit they commit more crimes, but denies they should be stopped as much never heard anything so absurd and silly in all my life.
You also base your percentage crimes off prison stats which have also been shown to be biased letting off thousands of whites even those with previous criminal records showing an even bigger problem how you use invalid stats to justify inequality.
Daft beyond belief
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 4:16 pm
Prime example of how you try to fudge the figures.
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:17 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Prime example of how you try to fudge the figures.
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
Fudge, ha ha ha ha ha
Yes read back what I already posted
DOH
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:21 pm
Again though why have you ignored the point you are going off the back of prison stats proven to be poor based on evidence by the Ministry of Justice showing bias also against blacks on sentencing.
So funny how as proven you are the artful dodger
So funny how as proven you are the artful dodger
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 4:25 pm
Prime example of how you try to fudge the figures.
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 4:27 pm
Come on dodge!
You said.....
"so whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it"
Prime example of how you try to fudge the figures.
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
You said.....
"so whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it"
Prime example of how you try to fudge the figures.
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:28 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Prime example of how you try to fudge the figures.
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
Already provided, BBC link or how about this one already posted to you and again you ignore prisons stats are flawed based on more whites commit crimes and even worse more get off similar crimes showing a mass disparity, of which you use your reasoning for stop and search based off flawed stats, that is daft beyond belief.
Stop trying to squirm out of this, it is pathetic my boy
http://www.stop-watch.org/uploads/documents/StopWatch_consultation_final.pdf
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 4:36 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Come on dodge!
You said.....
"so whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it"
Prime example of how you try to fudge the figures.
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
Come on dodge, you made the claim "whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it", so come on and tell us how many stop and searches are done in total each year and how many stopped are white/black?
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:39 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Tommy Monk wrote:Come on dodge!
You said.....
"so whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it"
Prime example of how you try to fudge the figures.
Can you tell us how many stop and searches are done every year in total?
And how many are whites/blacks?
Come on dodge, you made the claim "whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it", so come on and tell us how many stop and searches are done in total each year and how many stopped are white/black?
The statistical data on racial disproportionality in stop and search is consistent with the very extensive research on racism, racial stereotyping and racial discrimination in police work.
The literature shows that stereotyping is extensive, pervasive and consistent over time.
There is a widespread tendency for police officers to think of people from ethnic minorities as crime prone, disorderly and with tendencies towards violent behaviour and drug taking. John
Newing, (who was President of ACPO and Chief Constable of Derbyshire at the time), in his evidence to the Lawrence Inquiry captured this well. He said, “In the police service there is a
distinct tendency for officers to stereotype people. That creates problems in a number of areas, but particularly in the way officers deal with black people. Discrimination and unfairness are the result. I know because as a young police officer I was guilty of such
behaviour”.
It has been acknowledged by senior police officers that criminal intelligence is often
inaccurate or too imprecise to be of operational value.61
Such intelligence is also frequently
self-referential and self-reinforcing. That is, police officers target black people for stop and
search and this yields evidence of involvement in crime (such as a high rate of arrests). This
is then used as the basis for intelligence justifying the targeting of stop and search
Although the links are complex, it is clear that racially prejudiced attitudes affect the way in which people behave. Police officers are no exception. Hall et al argue that “while there is no automatic or straightforward link between racially prejudiced attitudes and language and discriminatory or differential behaviour… there is a consistency in the pervasive nature and expression of racial stereotypes and their influence on police expectations and behaviours”.
http://www.stop-watch.org/uploads/documents/StopWatch_consultation_final.pdf
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Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:40 pm
It has been acknowledged by senior police officers that criminal intelligence is often
inaccurate or too imprecise to be of operational value.61
Such intelligence is also frequently
self-referential and self-reinforcing. That is, police officers target black people for stop and
search and this yields evidence of involvement in crime (such as a high rate of arrests). This
is then used as the basis for intelligence justifying the targeting of stop and search.
The statistical and empirical research evidence indicates that stop and search is frequently carried out, not on the basis of objective information relating to a specific suspect, but on generalisations or stereotypical images of certain groups or categories of people as more likely to be involved in criminal activity. These stops are unlawful under PACE.
http://www.stop-watch.org/uploads/documents/StopWatch_consultation_final.pdf
Even more daft from Matti is his view on stop and search numbers basing the disproportion based on prison stats, something he avoids at every turn
So easy it is embarrassing to even have to argue with such poor intelligence
inaccurate or too imprecise to be of operational value.61
Such intelligence is also frequently
self-referential and self-reinforcing. That is, police officers target black people for stop and
search and this yields evidence of involvement in crime (such as a high rate of arrests). This
is then used as the basis for intelligence justifying the targeting of stop and search.
The statistical and empirical research evidence indicates that stop and search is frequently carried out, not on the basis of objective information relating to a specific suspect, but on generalisations or stereotypical images of certain groups or categories of people as more likely to be involved in criminal activity. These stops are unlawful under PACE.
http://www.stop-watch.org/uploads/documents/StopWatch_consultation_final.pdf
Even more daft from Matti is his view on stop and search numbers basing the disproportion based on prison stats, something he avoids at every turn
So easy it is embarrassing to even have to argue with such poor intelligence
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:46 pm
http://www.jackfmoxfordshire.co.uk/news/oxfordshire-news/wantage-councillor-who-stole-150k-from-pensioner-to-be-sentenced/%20/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2551501/Councillor-allowed-job-despite-outrageous-Twitter-comments-immigrants-watched-violent-Machete-film.html#ixzz2sMvJtQzQ
http://onthewight.com/2014/01/31/cllr-david-whittaker-guilty-sexual-assault-child/
http://www.searchlightmagazine.com/blogs/searchlight-blog/conservatives-select-former-bnp-activist-for-safe-seat
http://www.haringeyindependent.co.uk/news/10978703.Canver_s_Labour_suspension_to_be_reviewed/%20%20/
http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/revealed-labour-candidate-harrow-council-7033295
http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/11067497.Worcester_Park_councillor_convicted_for_racially_aggravated_assault_in_train_station_pub/%20%20/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-26764022
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2551501/Councillor-allowed-job-despite-outrageous-Twitter-comments-immigrants-watched-violent-Machete-film.html#ixzz2sMvJtQzQ
http://onthewight.com/2014/01/31/cllr-david-whittaker-guilty-sexual-assault-child/
http://www.searchlightmagazine.com/blogs/searchlight-blog/conservatives-select-former-bnp-activist-for-safe-seat
http://www.haringeyindependent.co.uk/news/10978703.Canver_s_Labour_suspension_to_be_reviewed/%20%20/
http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/revealed-labour-candidate-harrow-council-7033295
http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/11067497.Worcester_Park_councillor_convicted_for_racially_aggravated_assault_in_train_station_pub/%20%20/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-26764022
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:48 pm
sphinx wrote:
http://onthewight.com/2014/01/31/cllr-david-whittaker-guilty-sexual-assault-child/
http://www.searchlightmagazine.com/blogs/searchlight-blog/conservatives-select-former-bnp-activist-for-safe-seat
http://www.haringeyindependent.co.uk/news/10978703.Canver_s_Labour_suspension_to_be_reviewed/%20%20/
http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/revealed-labour-candidate-harrow-council-7033295
http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/11067497.Worcester_Park_councillor_convicted_for_racially_aggravated_assault_in_train_station_pub/%20%20/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-26764022
Glad you posted these, how though does that detract that UKIP does garner so many racists to its support?
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:49 pm
Do you think this guy should stand Sphinx?
sent a letter to the Camden New Journal this week exposing the bigoted views of local UK Independence Party council candidate Magnus Nielsen. They didn’t see fit to publish it.
Evidently the CNJ doesn’t think it newsworthy that a rabid Islamophobe like Nielsen is standing for local government in a borough with a large Muslim population. At any rate, whereas the Hampstead & Highgate Express ran an article on it, and Nielsen’s obnoxious views even made the national media, the CNJ hasn’t bothered to report the story.
The CNJ did, however, think it appropriate to publish a letter from Nielsen last year claiming that “the logic of ‘affirmative action’ on behalf of the self-styled ‘underprivileged’ is seriously flawed and can only have disastrous consequences for society as a whole”, and that a House of Commons which reflected the diversity of the British electorate would necessarily discriminate against “able-bodied, happily-married, heterosexual, men of Anglo Saxon heritage”.
Letter to Camden New Journal
Would you vote for a political party standing a candidate who declared that “Islam is organised crime under religious camouflage” and that “any Muslim who is not involved in organised crime is not ‘a true believer’, practising Islam as Muhammad commanded”?
If the same individual asserted that “whenever politically-activated Muslims gain power they remove freedom of speech and human rights; they annihilate people”, would you think it acceptable for that person to be elected to local government and given a public platform to promote such views?
Most of us would answer both questions with a resounding “no”.
But someone who proclaims these hateful views is contesting the elections to Camden Council, in a multicultural borough where one in eight of the population is Muslim. His name is Magnus Nielsen and he is the UK Independence Party candidate in West Hampstead.
Nielsen has never made any secret of his opinions. In 2010 the Guardian reported that he had described the Prophet Muhammad as a “criminal psychopath”, “the first cult leader” and “psychiatrically deranged”, and that he had agreed to speak at rallies organised by the far-right English Defence League.
Nielsen’s Facebook friends include Pamela Geller and Robert Spencer, the two US extremists who were banned from entering the UK to speak at an EDL rally last year, because the home office stated that they were responsible for setting up “anti-Muslim hate-groups”.
Despite this record, Nielsen is a longstanding UKIP activist. He is chairman of UKIP’s Brent & Camden branch, in which capacity he acts as a local spokesman for the party.
He stood for UKIP in the Barnet & Camden constituency in the London Assembly elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008. He was also the party’s parliamentary candidate for Hampstead & Highgate in the 2005 general election and for Hampstead & Kilburn in 2010.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage claims that his party opposes racism and all forms of bigotry. If that is the case, why hasn’t UKIP publicly dissociated itself from Nielsen and withdrawn its endorsement of his candidacy?
sent a letter to the Camden New Journal this week exposing the bigoted views of local UK Independence Party council candidate Magnus Nielsen. They didn’t see fit to publish it.
Evidently the CNJ doesn’t think it newsworthy that a rabid Islamophobe like Nielsen is standing for local government in a borough with a large Muslim population. At any rate, whereas the Hampstead & Highgate Express ran an article on it, and Nielsen’s obnoxious views even made the national media, the CNJ hasn’t bothered to report the story.
The CNJ did, however, think it appropriate to publish a letter from Nielsen last year claiming that “the logic of ‘affirmative action’ on behalf of the self-styled ‘underprivileged’ is seriously flawed and can only have disastrous consequences for society as a whole”, and that a House of Commons which reflected the diversity of the British electorate would necessarily discriminate against “able-bodied, happily-married, heterosexual, men of Anglo Saxon heritage”.
Letter to Camden New Journal
Would you vote for a political party standing a candidate who declared that “Islam is organised crime under religious camouflage” and that “any Muslim who is not involved in organised crime is not ‘a true believer’, practising Islam as Muhammad commanded”?
If the same individual asserted that “whenever politically-activated Muslims gain power they remove freedom of speech and human rights; they annihilate people”, would you think it acceptable for that person to be elected to local government and given a public platform to promote such views?
Most of us would answer both questions with a resounding “no”.
But someone who proclaims these hateful views is contesting the elections to Camden Council, in a multicultural borough where one in eight of the population is Muslim. His name is Magnus Nielsen and he is the UK Independence Party candidate in West Hampstead.
Nielsen has never made any secret of his opinions. In 2010 the Guardian reported that he had described the Prophet Muhammad as a “criminal psychopath”, “the first cult leader” and “psychiatrically deranged”, and that he had agreed to speak at rallies organised by the far-right English Defence League.
Nielsen’s Facebook friends include Pamela Geller and Robert Spencer, the two US extremists who were banned from entering the UK to speak at an EDL rally last year, because the home office stated that they were responsible for setting up “anti-Muslim hate-groups”.
Despite this record, Nielsen is a longstanding UKIP activist. He is chairman of UKIP’s Brent & Camden branch, in which capacity he acts as a local spokesman for the party.
He stood for UKIP in the Barnet & Camden constituency in the London Assembly elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008. He was also the party’s parliamentary candidate for Hampstead & Highgate in the 2005 general election and for Hampstead & Kilburn in 2010.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage claims that his party opposes racism and all forms of bigotry. If that is the case, why hasn’t UKIP publicly dissociated itself from Nielsen and withdrawn its endorsement of his candidacy?
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 4:51 pm
Come on dodge, you made the claim "whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it", so come on and tell us how many stop and searches are done in total each year and how many stopped are white/black?
Why can't you put the figures up to back up your claim?
Why can't you put the figures up to back up your claim?
Tommy Monk- Forum Detective ????♀️
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Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:55 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Come on dodge, you made the claim "whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it", so come on and tell us how many stop and searches are done in total each year and how many stopped are white/black?
Why can't you put the figures up to back up your claim?
I already provided the links Matti, so funny how you are now so desperate not to read them ha ha ha ha
You also go off the back of disproportionate stopping based on prison stats, that is the funniest part, so read the links all the numbers are there
Why can you not read the links?
::D::
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 4:57 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Come on dodge, you made the claim "whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it", so come on and tell us how many stop and searches are done in total each year and how many stopped are white/black?
Why can't you put the figures up to back up your claim?
Put up the figures to back up your claim dodge.
Tommy Monk- Forum Detective ????♀️
- Posts : 26319
Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 4:59 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Tommy Monk wrote:Come on dodge, you made the claim "whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it", so come on and tell us how many stop and searches are done in total each year and how many stopped are white/black?
Why can't you put the figures up to back up your claim?
Put up the figures to back up your claim dodge.
I have, here is another link dummy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24902389
Though as seen I have proven even the Governement and the Police recognise, of which you being stupid do not that stop ans search is flawed based off skin colour and not sound intelligence
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 5:00 pm
And more
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/06/05/racial-profiling-in-stop-_n_3391661.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/06/05/racial-profiling-in-stop-_n_3391661.html
Guest- Guest
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Tommy Monk Thu May 08, 2014 5:16 pm
Who's the dummy dodge?
Your link only says the total of stop and searches. NOt the actual breakdown of how many actual stops were white/black.
All it says is....
"The figure for these searches fell to 1,137,551 in 2011-12 from 1,222,378 the previous year."
And...
"The number of Section 60 stops dropped by nearly a quarter from 60,963 in 2010-11 to 46,961 in 2011-12."
So still waiting for you to back up your claim with evidence dodge?
Come on, you made the claim "whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it", so come on and tell us how many stop and searches are done in total each year and how many stopped are white/black?
Why can't you put the figures up to back up your claim?
Your link only says the total of stop and searches. NOt the actual breakdown of how many actual stops were white/black.
All it says is....
"The figure for these searches fell to 1,137,551 in 2011-12 from 1,222,378 the previous year."
And...
"The number of Section 60 stops dropped by nearly a quarter from 60,963 in 2010-11 to 46,961 in 2011-12."
So still waiting for you to back up your claim with evidence dodge?
Come on, you made the claim "whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it", so come on and tell us how many stop and searches are done in total each year and how many stopped are white/black?
Why can't you put the figures up to back up your claim?
Tommy Monk- Forum Detective ????♀️
- Posts : 26319
Join date : 2014-02-12
Re: Making Sense of UKIP's Surge
by Guest Thu May 08, 2014 5:18 pm
Tommy Monk wrote:Who's the dummy dodge?
Your link only says the total of stop and searches. NOt the actual breakdown of how many actual stops were white/black.
All it says is....
"The figure for these searches fell to 1,137,551 in 2011-12 from 1,222,378 the previous year."
And...
"The number of Section 60 stops dropped by nearly a quarter from 60,963 in 2010-11 to 46,961 in 2011-12."
So still waiting for you to back up your claim with evidence dodge?
Come on, you made the claim "whites vastly commit more crime are stopped less because of it", so come on and tell us how many stop and searches are done in total each year and how many stopped are white/black?
Why can't you put the figures up to back up your claim?
://?roflmao?/: ://?roflmao?/: ://?roflmao?/:
That really shows how dim you are, I suggest you read the links again and the evidence I have presented from the links
Dear me, that was hilarious
Guest- Guest
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