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Post by Maddog Thu May 12, 2022 5:12 pm


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Post by Original Quill Fri May 13, 2022 5:31 pm

Demand is important when determining inflation.  Moreover, if demand for a product is high, the demand for constituent components is equally high.  One component that goes into all products is labor – labor is one of the four components that inevitably goes into all products.  If there is not enough labor to supply a product/or products – what we call underemployment – prices will rise.

If consumer demand is high and unemployment is weak, inflation will be low.  Conversely, if consumer demand is high and availability of labor weak (underemployment), inflation is inevitably going to rise.  We are in a period of underemployment right now, as evidenced by so many “HELP WANTED” signs and advertisements visible in the US.  Thus, hindering child care, for example, is preventing labor as women are not free to make themselves available for the workforce.  Any anti-labor move is inhibiting production, driving up prices.  This causes inflation because labor is a component in the production of all products, and the upward price of any component forces total price of production upward.

Senator Joe Manchin (D.W.Va.), by siding with Republicans on opposing the Build Back Better Act, guaranteed that we would have tractors, and no one to drive them.  He guaranteed that underemployment would prevail and demand would outstrip supply, causing prices to rise.  Hence: inflation, with no infrastructure rebuilding.  Suppression of labor is the same as suppression of any component in the chain or production – prices will rise.  Sen. Manchin - the crucial vote in a Senate divided 50/50 (by party) - is responsible for the present inflation we are experiencing in the US.

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Post by Maddog Sat May 14, 2022 6:43 pm

Watch the fucking video.

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Post by Tommy Monk Sat May 14, 2022 7:20 pm




Of course the printing of more money will devalue the currency and create inflation...

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Post by Maddog Sat May 14, 2022 10:30 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:


Of course the printing of more money will devalue the currency and create inflation...

It's why they won't let us print it at home.. Wink

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Post by Maddog Sat May 14, 2022 11:40 pm

Also, you can't discuss inflation without discussing monetary policy.

It would be like discussing lung cancer without discussing smoking.

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Post by Original Quill Sun May 15, 2022 3:53 am

Maddog wrote:Also, you can't discuss inflation without discussing monetary policy.

It would be like discussing lung cancer without discussing smoking.  

True, bad monetary policy can be an alternative cause of inflation. But this time it goes right to Manchin's doorstep, given the circumstances, his vote, and the narrow margin in the Senate.

Republicans are sooo into hurting normal citizens - and labor in particular - that they forget that labor is one of the constituent ingredients that goes into all products. It's so rare that we have a labor shortage - usually we have unemployment - that it seldom comes to light.

In fact, it's so commonly obscured (covered?) by job-shortage figures, that I thought I would shine a light on the fact - and Senator Manchin's fukkup.

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Post by Original Quill Sun May 15, 2022 3:56 am

Maddog wrote:Watch the fucking video.

I did.  And note that I even quoted from it.  Pay attention, asshole. Rolling Eyes

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"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine." ― Old Republican proverb.

"I don't stand by anything."  ― Donald Trump, interview with John Dickerson, 5.1.17...

“That's libertarians for you — anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.” ― Kim Stanley Robinson, Green Mars (1993).

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Post by Maddog Sun May 15, 2022 5:35 am

Original Quill wrote:
Maddog wrote:Also, you can't discuss inflation without discussing monetary policy.

It would be like discussing lung cancer without discussing smoking.  

True, bad monetary policy can be an alternative cause of inflation.  But this time it goes right to Manchin's doorstep, given the circumstances, his vote, and the narrow margin in the Senate.

Republicans are sooo into hurting normal citizens - and labor in particular - that they forget that labor is one of the constituent ingredients that goes into all products.  It's so rare that we have a labor shortage - usually we have unemployment - that it seldom comes to light.

In fact, it's so commonly obscured (covered?) by job-shortage figures, that I thought I would shine a light on the fact - and Senator Manchin's fukkup.

Jerome Powell and the Fed run monetary policy..

Your conflating it with fiscal policy.

No surprise..

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Post by Original Quill Sun May 15, 2022 4:23 pm

Maddog wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

True, bad monetary policy can be an alternative cause of inflation.  But this time it goes right to Manchin's doorstep, given the circumstances, his vote, and the narrow margin in the Senate.

Republicans are sooo into hurting normal citizens - and labor in particular - that they forget that labor is one of the constituent ingredients that goes into all products.  It's so rare that we have a labor shortage - usually we have unemployment - that it seldom comes to light.

In fact, it's so commonly obscured (covered?) by job-shortage figures, that I thought I would shine a light on the fact - and Senator Manchin's fukkup.

Jerome Powell and the Fed run monetary policy..

Your conflating it with fiscal policy.

No surprise..

Of course.  Are you having problems wrapping your limited south-of-the-border brain around the issue?  Inflation, like recession, is a broad problem having multiple causes.  The focus of inflation is on a rise in demand - that's obvious.  The current inflationary rise has nothing to do with monetary manipulation, and everything to do with a dumb southerner fukking up our economy.  That would be Senator Joe Manchin, because he follows ideology, as you do, instead of simple cause and effect.

You complain about my detailed explanations for things in general, and then you put up a clip 10:43-minutes long on a forum, completely off-point, that someone else wrote, and accuse me of not trudging through it.  At least I write my own material – and you whine about how it’s too long.  You haven't got brains enough to figure out some of this stuff, let alone argue that some monetary policy is the core of the problem.  If it isn’t a tax-cut, you declare it a failure.  That’s because you’re all ideology, and can’t think for yourself.

You deal in banking, and so you want everything to be about and around you.  You’re a Republican, so you think government money-management executives are the cause...as if that is all there is to economics!  Well, economics is also about the REAL WORLD, and when you've got a shortage of workers, and you are steadfastly against programs that free up workers to do the job, you're fukking up the REAL WORLD economy.

It's not all about you and tax-cuts.

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“Little thieves are hanged, but great thieves are praised.” — Old Russian proverb, offered by Vladimir Putin to Donald Trump, Helsinki, July, 2018.

"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine." ― Old Republican proverb.

"I don't stand by anything."  ― Donald Trump, interview with John Dickerson, 5.1.17...

“That's libertarians for you — anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.” ― Kim Stanley Robinson, Green Mars (1993).

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Post by Maddog Sun May 15, 2022 5:20 pm

We printed 6 trillion dollars out of thin air to stimulate our economy.

That devalued our currency meaning it buys less than before. Now folks are poorer than they were before the stimulus because everything costs so much more.

And I'm not a republican.

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Post by Maddog Sun May 15, 2022 5:31 pm

If you want a good laugh, watch this from a year ago.. Fb_im185

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Post by Maddog Sun May 15, 2022 6:13 pm

If you want a good laugh, watch this from a year ago.. Fb_im186

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Post by Original Quill Sun May 15, 2022 6:37 pm

Maddog wrote:We printed 6 trillion dollars out of thin air to stimulate our economy.

And gave nine-tenths of it to the 1% richest people, in the form of tax-cuts.

Maddog wrote:That devalued our currency meaning  it buys less than before. Now folks are poorer than they were before the stimulus because everything costs so much more.

You can't continue with your artificial separation of monetary policy from fiscal policy.  Money is the tool of spending…its as simple as that.  Whatever 'fix' comes from printing more (or less) currency, it still gets divided up the same way.  When you make more cash, you are none-the-less giving it to the rich.

Inflation is primarily about rising costs of manufactured goods.  It is of concern because of who gets it.  Labor goes into production of all such goods.  When you boost the cost of labor - however it's done - you increase inflation…and it falls disproportionately on the poor and middle-income groups.

Now, normally the cost of labor goes up as a result of labor unions and self-interested demands, but occasionally the cost of labor can go up due to circumstances having nothing to do with self-interest.  This is one such circumstance.

The pandemic has wreaked havoc on marginal-income jobs.  Whole marginal industries have gone out of business as a result.  If the economy is over-dependent on any such industries, I trust you will agree: the economy is in trouble.

One such industry is child-care centers.  While we applaud the woman entering the workforce in numbers, almost unnoticed is that it is achieved by having a rag-tag industry filling-in for what woman normally do…taking care of children.  If we can’t provide for child-care, fully ½ the workforce goes away.  If you remove ½ of the availability of any constituent component or ingredient of any product, I guarantee that you will see a price increase.  Keep in mind, inflation is simply rising prices.

The Covid pandemic has wiped out the child-care industry altogether.  It was marginal already, but the virus has adversely affected not only the children, but the teachers and administrators – everyone involved.  Now, the facilities used, as well as the people involved, have gone elsewhere…to new businesses and jobs.  The industry has been completely destroyed.

We already have child-care from age 6, on (grade 1 through grade 12).  All we need to do is provide for the rest of the program.  Without it - the day-care industry having collapsed - we have 50% of our workforce abandoning the labor pool in order to tend to their children.  This is why you see ‘HELP WANTED’ signs everywhere.

This problem was accounted for in the Build Back Better Act, but conservative Republicans, together with Sen. Joe Manchin, did not recognize it.  They did not see the threat to the whole economic system.  They thought it was just another self-interested ploy on behalf of the working people.  Consequently, they will bring down the whole system, rather than give an inch to the little people.

Maddog wrote:And I'm not a republican.

Apologies for the insult.

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“Little thieves are hanged, but great thieves are praised.” — Old Russian proverb, offered by Vladimir Putin to Donald Trump, Helsinki, July, 2018.

"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine." ― Old Republican proverb.

"I don't stand by anything."  ― Donald Trump, interview with John Dickerson, 5.1.17...

“That's libertarians for you — anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.” ― Kim Stanley Robinson, Green Mars (1993).

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Post by Maddog Sun May 15, 2022 7:12 pm

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2022/04/06/larry-summers-i-told-you-so-inflation-tour-00023430

Larry Summers, the human economic airhorn that keeps blowing in West Wing ears, is declaring vindication. Again.

The former Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton and senior adviser and one-time Fed Chair candidate under President Barack Obama wrote in an op-ed today, noting that critics of his big inflation warnings were all wrong. And he, so far at least, has been dead-on accurate. Which he isn’t shy about reminding everyone.

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Post by Tommy Monk Sun May 15, 2022 8:23 pm




Just to say... The large scale printing of extra money (both in USA and UK) has been going on for over a decade, since the financial crisis back in 2008... And since then, inflation and interest rates have remained at record lows!


What I think has triggered this current hike in inflation is two fold... Firstly the knock on effect from covid lockdowns and the subsequent restarting of economic activity (demand) while the lines of supply were not able to provide the necessaries as required in time or scale... Basic economics is rooted in "supply and demand" rules...


Secondly... Energy prices have been hiked up which means that everything is more expensive to run/create/transport etc...



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Post by Original Quill Sun May 15, 2022 8:55 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:Just to say... The large scale printing of extra money (both in USA and UK) has been going on for over a decade, since the financial crisis back in 2008... And since then, inflation and interest rates have remained at record lows!

What I think has triggered this current hike in inflation is two fold... Firstly the knock on effect from covid lockdowns and the subsequent restarting of economic activity (demand) while the lines of supply were not able to provide the necessaries as required in time or scale... Basic economics is rooted in "supply and demand" rules...

Secondly... Energy prices have been hiked up which means that everything is more expensive to run/create/transport etc...

Your first point is well-taken.  Covid has disrupted the economy to a degree, unprecedented since the First World War...and then the War eclipsed the story of "the flu".

Your second point, about oil, is a business-designed problem.  Ever since OPEC showed them how, energy companies have been manipulating supply in order to keep economies teetering on collapse - all to maximize profit.  In their case, crisis makes wealth!  And they know it...and use it.

Labor is equally as vital as Big Oil.  The only difference is, when labor is withheld it's called a Strike...and it is condemned as a political issue.  When Big Oil manipulates demand by withholding product, it's called shortages and geologists are sent scurrying to look for new deposits. They have a cover story.

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"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine." ― Old Republican proverb.

"I don't stand by anything."  ― Donald Trump, interview with John Dickerson, 5.1.17...

“That's libertarians for you — anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.” ― Kim Stanley Robinson, Green Mars (1993).

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Post by Maddog Sun May 15, 2022 9:26 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:


Just to say... The large scale printing of extra money (both in USA and UK) has been going on for over a decade, since the financial crisis back in 2008... And since then, inflation and interest rates have remained at record lows!


What I think has triggered this current hike in inflation is two fold... Firstly the knock on effect from covid lockdowns and the subsequent restarting of economic activity (demand) while the lines of supply were not able to provide the necessaries as required in time or scale... Basic economics is rooted in "supply and demand" rules...


Secondly... Energy prices have been hiked up which means that everything is more expensive to run/create/transport etc...



We haven't seen quantitative easing and central bank balance sheets like this before.

We went too far and now the central banks are scrambling to raise rates, lower their balance sheets while trying for a soft landing that avoids a recession.

Won't happen.

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Post by Maddog Sun May 15, 2022 9:28 pm

Maddog wrote:https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2022/04/06/larry-summers-i-told-you-so-inflation-tour-00023430

Larry Summers, the human economic airhorn that keeps blowing in West Wing ears, is declaring vindication. Again.

The former Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton and senior adviser and one-time Fed Chair candidate under President Barack Obama wrote in an op-ed today, noting that critics of his big inflation warnings were all wrong. And he, so far at least, has been dead-on accurate. Which he isn’t shy about reminding everyone.


Summers in the interview gave the Fed some credit for its recent pivot to tightening mode. But he added that it isn’t enough yet. “They’ve come an enormously long way to recognizing reality,” Summers said. “But they still don’t have a realistic forecast of the relationship between the economy and inflation.”

The numbers back Summers up even as his arguments (as opposed to those of a much more White House-beloved columnist, Paul Krugman of the New York Times) have angered even Summers’ friends in the White House.

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Post by Tommy Monk Mon May 16, 2022 3:19 am




Quill... My second point is not just about oil...

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Post by Original Quill Mon May 16, 2022 5:21 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:Quill... My second point is not just about oil...

I know.  You spoke of "energy", but I just cut to the chase.  Energy = fossil fuels, and that means oil.

It is a fascinating example to plug in for economic understanding, tho...  Withhold oil from production, people automatically think it's a 'resource' question.  Withhold labor from production, it's suddenly a 'political' question.

It's understandable: labor is inextricably tied to human, political issues, and in Britain it's even a political party.  But the current dilemma, causing current inflation, is an example of how labor might be other than a human, political question.

The current withholding of labor is not of human causes, but due to a virus keeping labor away from the workforce.  It has overwhelmed us all...we try to return it to political issues, by arguing against masks and social distancing, but in this country approaching 1-million souls have died, and not willingly.  It's going to perpetuate the withholding by restructuring the economy - while the stupid, like Senator Manchin, have not caught up to the new world...new causes and new effects.  He still thinks Labor is a political movement!

Energy, contrary-wise, is closer to a human problem, and we don't even know it.  We keep thinking of it as a 'resource' problem, and never question where did all the energy suddenly disappear to???  We, in America, point to the boycott of Russian oil as a cause of the shortage, but we don't use a drop of Russian oil.   If you want a good laugh, watch this from a year ago.. 2190311264   In fact, America doesn't import oil at all.  It's a problem for Europe.  WTF???

It's a human issue.  Fraud didn't end with Enron Oil...the oil people are jacking us around again, and we keep looking to 'resource' shortages for answers to questions.  It's a huge deflection.  It's capitalists raising prices arbitrarily, manipulating a market, just like the Golden Age of the late-1800's.  New clothes...same lady!

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"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine." ― Old Republican proverb.

"I don't stand by anything."  ― Donald Trump, interview with John Dickerson, 5.1.17...

“That's libertarians for you — anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.” ― Kim Stanley Robinson, Green Mars (1993).

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Post by Maddog Mon May 16, 2022 7:32 pm

"Since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries," Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio, and Fabián Rivera-Reyes wrote in a March analysis for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. "Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic's economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021."

https://reason.com/2022/05/16/bad-policy-creates-inflation-and-opens-the-door-to-even-worse-ideas/

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Post by Maddog Mon May 16, 2022 7:39 pm

While there are certainly areas where enhanced antitrust action is warranted, scapegoating corporate greed for inflation is preposterous in the view of almost all serious economists.


https://time.com/6157535/the-fed-must-do-much-more-to-fight-inflation-and-fast/

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Post by Tommy Monk Mon May 16, 2022 9:40 pm




Energy is also electricity and gas...



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Post by Original Quill Mon May 16, 2022 11:14 pm

Maddog wrote:"Since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries," Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio, and Fabián Rivera-Reyes wrote in a March analysis for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. "Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic's economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021."

https://reason.com/2022/05/16/bad-policy-creates-inflation-and-opens-the-door-to-even-worse-ideas/

I doubt it.  The median income for U.S. households in 2020 was $67,521, a decrease of 2.9% from the previous year.  The official poverty rate in 2020 was 11.4%, up almost a full percentage point from 10.5 in 2019.

There is no question of the cause of this drop: "The median income for 2020 was down largely due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic."  https://www.investopedia.com/personal-finance/what-average-income-us/  Everything was going along swimmingly, with inflation about 2%, until Covid started to affect the work force.  Typically, it affected the weaker fringes first - lower income jobs and less steady incomes.  Child care was affected because the market changes as children age.  That's why it wiped out the child care industry.  Women, who wanted to return to work, found they could not because the local child-care facility was no longer there.  Go home, Mom, last year you were an aspiring executive, now you're just an everyday mom.

Attempts to fix this were considered "elective" factors by conservatives, and so they voted against the Build Back Better Act - the Act that would fund child-care.  As a result, prices are rising and so is underemployment.

Now, we are left with permanent gouges in our economic landscape.  Whole industries are no more!  The vulnerable, patch-work industries have disappeared.  Capitalists are not used to changing landscapes...hence, the ignorance of Senator Manchin.  He still thinks that inflation is a choice - that we shouldn't give in.  Stand fast!  Meanwhile, it's not just the ship...but the whole of Atlantis that is sinking.

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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 2:03 am

Original Quill wrote:
Maddog wrote:"Since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries," Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio, and Fabián Rivera-Reyes wrote in a March analysis for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. "Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic's economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021."

https://reason.com/2022/05/16/bad-policy-creates-inflation-and-opens-the-door-to-even-worse-ideas/

I doubt it.  The median income for U.S. households in 2020 was $67,521, a decrease of 2.9% from the previous year.  The official poverty rate in 2020 was 11.4%, up almost a full percentage point from 10.5 in 2019.

There is no question of the cause of this drop: "The median income for 2020 was down largely due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic."  https://www.investopedia.com/personal-finance/what-average-income-us/  Everything was going along swimmingly, with inflation about 2%, until Covid started to affect the work force.  Typically, it affected the weaker fringes first - lower income jobs and less steady incomes.  Child care was affected because the market changes as children age.  That's why it wiped out the child care industry.  Women, who wanted to return to work, found they could not because the local child-care facility was no longer there.  Go home, Mom, last year you were an aspiring executive, now you're just an everyday mom.

Attempts to fix this were considered "elective" factors by conservatives, and so they voted against the Build Back Better Act - the Act that would fund child-care.  As a result, prices are rising and so is underemployment.

Now, we are left with permanent gouges in our economic landscape.  Whole industries are no more!  The vulnerable, patch-work industries have disappeared.  Capitalists are not used to changing landscapes...hence, the ignorance of Senator Manchin.  He still thinks that inflation is a choice - that we shouldn't give in.  Stand fast!  Meanwhile, it's not just the ship...but the whole of Atlantis that is sinking.

I don't care if you doubt it.

You're a fucking idiot.

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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 2:11 am

The
Federal Reserve
moved too late to tamp down on inflation that's now hit the highest levels since the 1980s, former chair Ben Bernanke said.

With prices continuing to surge at breakneck speed, criticism of the central bank has reached a fever pitch. Several Wall Street banks have penciled in a
recession
in late 2022 or early 2023, arguing the Fed's timing now forces it to slow the economy to a halt in order to cool inflation.

Bernanke took a similarly hawkish stance in a CNBC interview aired Monday, saying the Fed's patience in raising rates contributed to the inflation problem.


https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-inflation-response-mistake-federal-reserve-ben-bernanke-stagflation-2022-5



Meanwhile, the opinion of a non idiot..

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Post by Original Quill Tue May 17, 2022 2:51 am

First you say they meddled, when they shouldn't.  Now you say they moved too late.  Make up your mind.

My only point is that the remedy was anticipated in the Build Back Better Act, which provided for child care so women could resume work. The workforce could be restored, and we wouldn't have rising prices due to demand out-running productivity.  Thanks to Senator Manchin, they missed the boat.

Now we've got loads of funds for tractors and back-hoes funded by the Infra-Structure Investment Act, and nobody to drive them.  Brilliant!  Rolling Eyes

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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 4:49 am

Original Quill wrote:First you say they meddled, when they shouldn't.  Now you say they moved too late.  Make up your mind.

My only point is that the remedy was anticipated in the Build Back Better Act, which provided for child care so women could resume work.  The workforce could be restored, and we wouldn't have rising prices due to demand out-running productivity.  Thanks to Senator Manchin, they missed the boat.

Now we've got loads of funds for tractors and back-hoes funded by the Infra-Structure Investment Act, and nobody to drive them.  Brilliant!  Rolling Eyes

There was no remedy in more spending.

That's much of the cause.

Let.me see. On one side we have Bernanke, Summers and Powell.

On the other some rambling, pretend lawyer.

Nobody with any economic sense is saying the the failure to pass BBB caused inflation.

Quite the opposite.

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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 4:56 am

"President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better plan is stalled, and the next steps are unclear. Some Democrats are talking about the need for new pandemic-relief measures, even as the White House is reportedly looking at a stripped-down version of the original proposal. Meanwhile, most analysts are giving short shrift to an issue that deserves more thought: how Build Back Better would make it harder to fight inflation. "


From Bloomberg.


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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 4:59 am

"Biden’s American Rescue Plan worsened inflation. The question is how much."


From Vox. Another left leaning site.

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Post by Original Quill Tue May 17, 2022 2:56 pm

Maddog wrote:
Original Quill wrote:First you say they meddled, when they shouldn't.  Now you say they moved too late.  Make up your mind.

My only point is that the remedy was anticipated in the Build Back Better Act, which provided for child care so women could resume work.  The workforce could be restored, and we wouldn't have rising prices due to demand out-running productivity.  Thanks to Senator Manchin, they missed the boat.

Now we've got loads of funds for tractors and back-hoes funded by the Infra-Structure Investment Act, and nobody to drive them.  Brilliant!  Rolling Eyes

There was no remedy in more spending.

That's much of the cause.
 

Let.me see. On one side we have Bernanke, Summers and Powell.

On the other some rambling, pretend lawyer.  

Nobody with any economic sense is saying the the failure to pass BBB caused inflation.

Quite the opposite.

That's like someone saying, Don't give him medicine...it was a medical problem that caused his illness.  You're confusing words with real-life issues.  The trick is to dig down into the evidence, to see which medicine is favorable and which is detrimental.  We have the knowledge...we can do this.  If you want to watch, sit over there and be still.

Nor is the answer to change the subject to who is speaking, vs. the subject you, in fact, raised: inflation!  The topic isn't about a "pretend lawyer"; you are just scurrying away from the topic because you aren't 'up' to analyzing the subject.

You are on an ideological rant.  You are at pains to make an argument consistent with your libertarian philosophy.  Government meddling is what got us into this mess, you argue, so the way out is to...do nothing...sit on your hands like libertarians do!

Only, it wasn't government meddling, but a virus that caused a labor shortage.  The labor shortage caused product shortages, which caused value (demand) to increase.  Increased value caused prices to rise.  The rising prices caused the inflation.  No need to look in dusty corners like monetary policy for answers.

I'm afraid your usefulness has gone from this conversation.  You have transferred your criticism away from the subject and over to me.  No one is interested in me.  The focus is on the topic.  Get on board.

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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 5:18 pm

Original Quill wrote:
Maddog wrote:

There was no remedy in more spending.

That's much of the cause.
 

Let.me see. On one side we have Bernanke, Summers and Powell.

On the other some rambling, pretend lawyer.  

Nobody with any economic sense is saying the the failure to pass BBB caused inflation.

Quite the opposite.

That's like someone saying, Don't give him medicine...it was a medical problem that caused his illness.  You're confusing words with real-life issues.  The trick is to dig down into the evidence, to see which medicine is favorable and which is detrimental.  We have the knowledge...we can do this.  If you want to watch, sit over there and be still.

Nor is the answer to change the subject to who is speaking, vs. the subject you, in fact, raised: inflation!  The topic isn't about a "pretend lawyer"; you are just scurrying away from the topic because you aren't 'up' to analyzing the subject.

You are on an ideological rant.  You are at pains to make an argument consistent with your libertarian philosophy.  Government meddling is what got us into this mess, you argue, so the way out is to...do nothing...sit on your hands like libertarians do!

Only, it wasn't government meddling, but a virus that caused a labor shortage.  The labor shortage caused product shortages, which caused value (demand) to increase.  Increased value caused prices to rise.  The rising prices caused the inflation.  No need to look in dusty corners like monetary policy for answers.

I'm afraid your usefulness has gone from this conversation.  You have transferred your criticism away from the subject and over to me.  No one is interested in me.  The focus is on the topic.  Get on board.

No, it's like saying 2 aspirin is helpful, so let's take 15 and see what happens.

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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 5:20 pm

As the Federal Reserve meets virtually for its annual Jackson Hole retreat, it should, but probably won’t, step back and reassess its continuing quantitative easing policy, which has gone on for too long. The current policy is explicable as the result of a month-by-month decision-making process, following the urgently needed steps the Fed took at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis. But viewed from the perspective of current economic conditions, it cannot be justified and presents its own danger.







More from Larry Summers.

A Democrat.

An informed one unlike this forums pretend attorney

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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 5:28 pm

If you want a good laugh, watch this from a year ago.. Fb_im187


A couple things are certain..

Politicians are the cause for inflation and they, and their useful idiots, will always try to blame others for what they did..

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Post by Original Quill Tue May 17, 2022 6:50 pm

Maddog wrote:No, it's like saying 2 aspirin is helpful, so let's take 15 and see what happens.

The point is: you're one-dimensional.  You’re stuck on the formula: Less is Better; but you’re focused on the “aspirin”.  Less aspirin does not mean less medicine.  You use too many memes and slogans in your reasoning.

Economics is a huge subject, and you are only obsessed with your libertarian view.  It offends you that government is involved in monetary policy, because money is the ultimate property....and property should be private, according to libertarian doctrine.

Well, you might as well face it...we were born social, we live in a social world, and society will go on after we're gone, for our children, and their children, etc., etc.  Because we live in a social world, we are beholding to a social existence.  We make laws - red light means stop, green light means go - merely to organize our existence.  But you don't like rules, so you opt for a philosophy that pretends we don't need rules (only, as my tag below says, you want sufficient rules to hold onto your slaves and property).

Libertarianism is built on individualism, but what does that mean?  Most people shrug, and go on about their business.  But, the predatory focus of individualism is outward - not on the Id, but on the substance out there.  It means: those other guys are the individuals, and they are just rubes for my wealth-gathering and well-being.  Individualism may not have invented selfishness, but it sure ushered in the opportunity for it.

Unchecked, individualism - and it's hand-maiden, libertarianism - is just another word for selfishness.  All this song 'n dance about private property and freedom is just: get out of my way...I want to be dictator!  (Watch Trump, if you don’t believe me!)  You scratch the surface of a libertarian, and you’ll see the greatest collectivist ever!  Industrialists like Cornelius Vanderbilt, J.P. Morgan?  John D. Rockefeller?  Only, he plans on keeping as His.

And who else is the individual going to champion?  Walk down the ladder and see where it started.  Libertarian began with the Latin word to be free.  To be free of: Bishop, Earl and King…but we jumped right out of the frying pan, and right into the fire.  Instead of hereditary status, we made meritocracy the measure.  Where we meant to change the game and how it is played, in fact we merely changed the villains.  There is still poverty and misery out there.  There is still WE and THEY.  And as long as there is still WE and THEY, there will inevitably be injustice.  Libertarianism guarantees it.

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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 8:37 pm

Lawrence Henry Summers (born November 30, 1954) is an American economist who served as the 71st United States Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001 and as the 8th Director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010. He also served as president of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006 where he is currently a university professor and director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.



Then there is a pretend lawyer and rambling word salads about nothing.

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Post by Original Quill Tue May 17, 2022 9:22 pm

Maddog wrote:Lawrence Henry Summers (born November 30, 1954) is an American economist who served as the 71st United States Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001 and as the 8th Director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010. He also served as president of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006 where he is currently a university professor and director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

Then there is a pretend lawyer and rambling word salads about nothing.  

Nobody cares. If you want a good laugh, watch this from a year ago.. 2190311264 Moreover, Larry Summers is not going to carry your water for you forever. Soz, but he is not a libertarian.

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Post by Maddog Tue May 17, 2022 9:46 pm

Original Quill wrote:
Maddog wrote:Lawrence Henry Summers (born November 30, 1954) is an American economist who served as the 71st United States Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001 and as the 8th Director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010. He also served as president of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006 where he is currently a university professor and director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

Then there is a pretend lawyer and rambling word salads about nothing.  

Nobody cares.  If you want a good laugh, watch this from a year ago.. 2190311264   Moreover, Larry Summers is not going to carry your water for you forever.  Soz, but he is not a libertarian.


People actually pay attention to Larry.

You on the other hand are just an irritating pretend lawyer that's managed to bore everyone into leaving.

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Post by Original Quill Wed May 18, 2022 4:41 pm

Maddog wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

Nobody cares. If you want a good laugh, watch this from a year ago.. 2190311264 Moreover, Larry Summers is not going to carry your water for you forever. Soz, but he is not a libertarian.

People actually pay attention to Larry.

You on the other hand are just an irritating pretend lawyer that's managed to bore everyone into leaving.

The point is, people don't respect your philosophy of libertarianism. Summers doesn't sell it because he doesn't believe in it. In fact, he says in his now-famous Washington Post Op-Ed of February 4th:

Washington Post wrote:I agree with the general consensus of progressive economists that it would have been much better if the Obama administration had been able to legislate a much larger fiscal stimulus in early 2009, in response to the Great Recession [caused by Republican GW Bush].

You're hawking a brand of snake oil that experts have already passed on.

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Post by Maddog Thu May 19, 2022 5:10 pm

Original Quill wrote:
Maddog wrote:

People actually pay attention to Larry.

You on the other hand are just an irritating pretend lawyer that's managed to bore everyone into leaving.  

The point is, people don't respect your philosophy of libertarianism.  Summers doesn't sell it because he doesn't believe in it.  In fact, he says in his now-famous Washington Post Op-Ed of February 4th:

Washington Post wrote:I agree with the general consensus of progressive economists that it would have been much better if the Obama administration had been able to legislate a much larger fiscal stimulus in early 2009, in response to the Great Recession [caused by Republican GW Bush].

You're hawking a brand of snake oil that experts have already passed on.


Summers was correct. That's the point..

This isn't about me or my political leanings.

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Post by Original Quill Thu May 19, 2022 7:27 pm

Maddog wrote:Summers was correct. That's the point.

The jury is still out on Summers, but hindsight will tell.  Monetary policy, for needed repairs to the economy, is warranted in times of crisis.

God knows the Republicans scream for bail-outs whenever they get their toesies the slightest bit wet.  "Trickle down" economics don't work so they went the other way this time.

Maddog wrote:This isn't about me or my political leanings.

It has to be coming from somewhere.  I’m just pointing out the contradiction: You side with Republicans because they want minimal government; so too, do you!  But they want to dominate – they don’t mind monopoly – and they don’t mind tyranny, as evident by Trump’s attempted coup.

I assume you mean it when you want minimal government – just naïve to the consequences.  However, every once in a while, you get a glimpse of where Republicans are going. January 6th gave you some indication.

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Post by Maddog Fri May 20, 2022 12:58 am

Original Quill wrote:
Maddog wrote:Summers was correct. That's the point.

The jury is still out on Summers, but hindsight will tell.  Monetary policy, for needed repairs to the economy, is warranted in times of crisis.

God knows the Republicans scream for bail-outs whenever they get their toesies the slightest bit wet.  "Trickle down" economics don't work so they went the other way this time.

Maddog wrote:This isn't about me or my political leanings.

It has to be coming from somewhere.  I’m just pointing out the contradiction: You side with Republicans because they want minimal government; so too, do you!  But they want to dominate – they don’t mind monopoly – and they don’t mind tyranny, as evident by Trump’s attempted coup.

I assume you mean it when you want minimal government – just naïve to the consequences.  However, every once in a while, you get a glimpse of where Republicans are going.  January 6th gave you some indication.

Summers was correct.

And he was hardly alone in screaming that pushing the Fed balance sheet to 10 trillion was a dumb idea..

Why not 20 trillion?

We could do like Sri Lanka has been doing.

Just finance everything at the central bank.

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The policy or practice on the part of people in positions of authority of restricting the freedom and responsibilities of those subordinate to them in the subordinates' supposed best interest.
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Post by Original Quill Fri May 20, 2022 3:04 am

Maddog wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

The jury is still out on Summers, but hindsight will tell.  Monetary policy, for needed repairs to the economy, is warranted in times of crisis.

God knows the Republicans scream for bail-outs whenever they get their toesies the slightest bit wet.  "Trickle down" economics don't work so they went the other way this time.



It has to be coming from somewhere.  I’m just pointing out the contradiction: You side with Republicans because they want minimal government; so too, do you!  But they want to dominate – they don’t mind monopoly – and they don’t mind tyranny, as evident by Trump’s attempted coup.

I assume you mean it when you want minimal government – just naïve to the consequences.  However, every once in a while, you get a glimpse of where Republicans are going.  January 6th gave you some indication.

Summers was correct.

And he was hardly alone in screaming that pushing the Fed balance sheet to 10 trillion was a dumb idea..

Why not 20 trillion?

We could do like Sri Lanka has been doing.

Just finance everything at the central bank.

Got any evidence? Summers was wrong...he's too conservative.

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"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine." ― Old Republican proverb.

"I don't stand by anything."  ― Donald Trump, interview with John Dickerson, 5.1.17...

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Post by Maddog Fri May 20, 2022 4:55 pm

Original Quill wrote:
Maddog wrote:

Summers was correct.

And he was hardly alone in screaming that pushing the Fed balance sheet to 10 trillion was a dumb idea..

Why not 20 trillion?

We could do like Sri Lanka has been doing.

Just finance everything at the central bank.

Got any evidence?  Summers was wrong...he's too conservative.

Summers predicted record inflation because of too much stimulus.

He was correct.

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Post by Maddog Fri May 20, 2022 5:16 pm

"The former Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton and senior adviser and one-time Fed Chair candidate under President Barack Obama wrote in an op-ed today, noting that critics of his big inflation warnings were all wrong. And he, so far at least, has been dead-on accurate. Which he isn’t shy about reminding everyone."



I posted this already. Guess someone missed it..

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Post by Original Quill Fri May 20, 2022 5:22 pm

Maddog wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

Got any evidence?  Summers was wrong...he's too conservative.

Summers predicted record inflation because of too much stimulus.  

He was correct.  

I don't think so. If that cause and effect was a foregone conclusion, there wouldn't be this debate. Let's go back to basics:

1. What did he say, and where (what forum) did he say it?

2. What proof did he offer?

The current inflation is most obviously the result of the pandemic amid a labor shortage. That is the biggest elephant in the room. If you have a counter-argument, make it...but it's an uphill climb.

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“Little thieves are hanged, but great thieves are praised.” — Old Russian proverb, offered by Vladimir Putin to Donald Trump, Helsinki, July, 2018.

"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine." ― Old Republican proverb.

"I don't stand by anything."  ― Donald Trump, interview with John Dickerson, 5.1.17...

“That's libertarians for you — anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.” ― Kim Stanley Robinson, Green Mars (1993).

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Post by Maddog Fri May 20, 2022 5:56 pm

Original Quill wrote:
Maddog wrote:

Summers predicted record inflation because of too much stimulus.  

He was correct.  

I don't think so.  If that cause and effect was a foregone conclusion, there wouldn't be this debate.  Let's go back to basics:

1. What did he say, and where (what forum) did he say it?

2.  What proof did he offer?

The current inflation is most obviously the result of the pandemic amid a labor shortage.  That is the biggest elephant in the room.  If you have a counter-argument, make it...but it's an uphill climb.


I can't read the shit to you.

You're going to have to settle down, stop typing nonsense amd do that for yourself.

All I can do is post the information..

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Post by Maddog Fri May 20, 2022 5:59 pm

The former Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton and senior adviser and one-time Fed Chair candidate under President Barack Obama wrote in an op-ed today, noting that critics of his big inflation warnings were all wrong. And he, so far at least, has been dead-on accurate. Which he isn’t shy about reminding everyone.

In an interview with Nightly today, Summers blew off any concerns about declaring victory too often. He said it was important to take on critics’ objections to his inflation theories one by one.

He also noted that inflation wasn’t the only thing he got right: “What’s been less highlighted is my predictions that pushing for such a massive rescue act would endanger much of the Build Back Better agenda.” That’s exactly what happened, Summers said.

Inflation, he noted in his Washington Post op-ed, is way higher than the White House or Fed thought it would be. And predictions from President Joe Biden and Fed Chair Jerome Powell that inflation would be “transient” are now dead. It’s still here, and it’s getting worse.


https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2022/04/06/larry-summers-i-told-you-so-inflation-tour-00023430


Read.

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Post by Original Quill Fri May 20, 2022 8:31 pm

Larry Summers, 4/5/22 wrote:First, the question isn’t whether inflation will come down from about 8 percent on the current policy path. It is whether it will come down to an acceptable level. That’s a very different proposition.

What does that mean?  Does he ever tell us what is acceptable?

Larry Summers, 4/5/22 wrote:Second, given new bottlenecks associated with the Ukraine war, covid-19 closures in China and rising worker restiveness, it is far from clear that new supply-chain developments will be positive. Team Transitory proved dead wrong through 2021. It may well be wrong in 2022.

So, he’s fudging already.  This as much as admits that covid-19 (ie, the pandemic) and labor-shortages are at least 2/3 of the problem – do I start with the I told you so’s right now?

Larry Summers, 4/5/22 wrote:Third, the optimists have their macroeconomics wrong. True, more job seekers might restrain wages. But more workers earning and spending raise demand and prices. Only if they add slack to the labor market — raising unemployment, in other words — will extra labor-force participants reduce inflationary pressure. Similar logic applies in product markets. If used-car or gasoline prices come down, consumers will have more to spend on other goods, pushing up their prices.

We are not in a depression – far from it.  We are in a period of under-employment, amid a pandemic, adding to the unavailability of labor.  Summers says: “Only if they add slack to the labor market — raising unemployment, in other words — will extra labor-force participants reduce inflationary pressure.”  Why is overcompensation (“slack”) necessary to stop the inertia caused by the labor-shortage and covid-19?  That doesn’t make sense.

He makes an empirical argument: “every time inflation has exceeded 4 percent and unemployment has been below 5 percent, the U.S. economy has gone into recession within two years,” but that doesn’t explain the mechanics.  That’s like saying every time the cows come home, they’re hungry.  The question is why?

He then makes an evidentiary argument, before going on: “[t]hird, those soft-landing successes all followed actions to preempt future inflation pressures.”  Then there is a final argument whether the Fed is not raising real rates.  

At least three evident questions are raised in this debate.  You haven’t gone into any of them.  You are satisfied letting others do your thinking for you.  And, significantly, because I have gone into detail, you fault me for being a "pretend lawyer".  At least I can get out of the boat and swim.

Apparently, you feel you don’t have the cerebral equipment to rise to the expert’s level. That's why you talk around so much of the discussion, rather than using your own words, making your own arguments. Well, far be it for me to argue – if you feel inadequate, I don’t know you and I can’t argue – but keep in mind that if you feel you can’t talk to the experts, neither can you understand them. It’s the same language.

For me?  I have no hesitancy making my own explanations - and coincidentally siding with Fed. Chair Jerome Powell.  And I’ll argue with Larry Summers, or anyone else who disagrees.  Summers is weaving and dodging in his argument, and anytime I see that, I conclude he’s using a crescent wrench.  I can only surmise he doesn’t have the proper tool – he doesn’t have a thesis.

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“Little thieves are hanged, but great thieves are praised.” — Old Russian proverb, offered by Vladimir Putin to Donald Trump, Helsinki, July, 2018.

"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine." ― Old Republican proverb.

"I don't stand by anything."  ― Donald Trump, interview with John Dickerson, 5.1.17...

“That's libertarians for you — anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.” ― Kim Stanley Robinson, Green Mars (1993).

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