Is Sweden approaching herd immunity?

Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.

The strategy — aimed at allowing some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial. Some health experts liken it to playing Russian roulette with public health.

But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.

“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Herd immunity among a population, usually achieved through vaccination, is reached when around 60% of citizens are deemed immune. Without a vaccine for the coronavirus, however, scientists are looking at whether exposure to and recovery from Covid-19 leads to long-term immunity. Reinfections of coronavirus have been reported.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html?__source=sharebar%7Cfacebook&par=sharebar&fbclid=IwAR0XaRU3m7Qj0wFewkVFaxeLBZ7BC2fu9SHtHQjg2i6kB0i28vrE3XBEy4U


They bet their medical community could handle the strain or an initial surge in numbers. A bet many European countries couldn't make. They accepted a higher death rate per capita in the beginning of the event, in order to get it over with quicker.

It appears to be working, yet we will need to wait another month or two to find out I guess.

Maybe they are all closet Trump supporters?

Thank goodness for those who gave their lives so that this pandemic would be less inconvenient for everyone else.

Ben Reilly wrote:Thank goodness for those who gave their lives so that this pandemic would be less inconvenient for everyone else.

Is that what the Swedes are doing?

Killing people to not inconvenience people?

Thorin wrote:Sweden has seen its confirmed cases of Covid-19 jump from 16,004 to 16,755. The rise was much larger than in recent days, during which Sweden’s Public Health Agency had been cautiously celebrating a flattening of cases.

The agency's deputy state epidemiologist Anders Wallensten said the majority of the new cases were in Stockholm. Increased testing of healthcare workers could be a factor, he said, but scientists were looking into other potential reasons.

The agency also adjusted an earlier estimation that one-third of Stockholm residents will have been infected by the virus by 1 May, which was featured in a report released by the agency earlier this week and withdrawn after officials admitted errors in calculations.

“I don’t think this should be looked upon as something that is representative of Swedish statistics in general,” Wallensten told the BBC from the news conference via video link. “It was a mistake, I think many people understand that we are working hard these days... unfortunately this was not spotted before it went out.”

He said it was “too early to say” how much of an impact asymptomatic infection rates and the subsequent potential for immunity would have on the potential to lift social-distancing recommendations in Sweden in the near future, in comparison to places which have endured stricter measures.

Unlike other countries Sweden has not implemented strict social distancing measures.

Sweden is definitely front loading its cases and not trying to flatten the curve as hard as other countries.

Flattening the curve doesnt necessarily decreases the cases. It just spreads them out over a longer time so that the medical community doesnt get overwhelmed like in Italy. That's not happening in Sweden, and their CURRENT deaths per capita is below the UK and several other Eurozone countries.

The real test will be what we see in a few months in terms of deaths per capita.

If any country did opt for herd immunity (thus ensuring the old and the vulnerable , the overweight, male black and ethnic minorities will pave the way) how can that work when no one actually knows if...
A.....catching the virus creates immunity
B.....even if it does, how long would the virus have to be in the system before immunity kicked in
C.....How long would the immunity last.
D...When the virus mutates, if it hasn't already done so, what good would immunity to the first strain be then??

I doubt whether the scientists know the answers yet, so opting for herd immunity and sacrificing millions of people doesn't seem very logical....or humane.

Xlnt questions. But the Tories/Republicans say we can't afford to answer them.

Syl wrote:If any country did opt for herd immunity (thus ensuring the old and the vulnerable , the overweight, male black and ethnic minorities will pave the way) how can that work when no one actually knows if...
A.....catching the virus creates immunity
B.....even if it does, how long would the virus have to be in the system before immunity kicked in
C.....How long would the immunity last.
D...When the virus mutates, if it hasn't already done so, what good would immunity to the first strain be then??

I doubt whether the scientists know the answers yet, so opting for herd immunity and sacrificing millions of people doesn't seem very logical....or humane.

Sweden has a less deaths per capita than the UK.

If they were an outlier in numbers I could see your point.

They're not.

They are. In terms of concentration, most significant in terms of viral-spread, number one Stockholm has a population of only 974, 073, whereas London has a population 8,908,081.

The UK also has many, many cities in the million-plus range, whereas Sweden has none.

Once again Fat-headed Maddog has proven just what a pathetic lying piece of shit he is...

First off --  genuine "herd immunity" in a population is reached when the actual and genuine "immunity" is over 90% -- not the "60%" that unqualified and self-serving lying Swede political medico(s) claims..

And, unfortunately, "immunity" against certain common strains of viruses will only last until the next serious mutated strain of that virus emerges, where it has evolved far enough as to be itself "immune" to those particular antibodies -- usually only a matter of years

Secondly, Sweden's new infections rate is still climbing, and is still a lot higher than many other parts of the world.

Pathetic deflecting bullshit.

You just can't help yourself can you wolfie ? So much anger in you---------Why ?

Maddog wrote:

Syl wrote:If any country did opt for herd immunity (thus ensuring the old and the vulnerable , the overweight, male black and ethnic minorities will pave the way) how can that work when no one actually knows if...
A.....catching the virus creates immunity
B.....even if it does, how long would the virus have to be in the system before immunity kicked in
C.....How long would the immunity last.
D...When the virus mutates, if it hasn't already done so, what good would immunity to the first strain be then??

I doubt whether the scientists know the answers yet, so opting for herd immunity and sacrificing millions of people doesn't seem very logical....or humane.

Sweden has a less deaths per capita than the UK.  

If they were an outlier in numbers I could see your point.

They're not.  

I have said all along Sweden is a country to watch, they do seem to have gone their own way compared to other EU countries.

nicko wrote:You just can't help yourself can you wolfie ?  So much anger in you---------Why ?

No he cant. It's like he has tourette's syndrome.

'Wolfie wrote:

Once again Fat-headed Maddog has proven just what a pathetic lying piece of shit he is...

First off -- genuine "herd immunity" in a population is reached when the actual and genuine "immunity" is over 90% -- not the "60%" that unqualified and self-serving lying Swede political medico(s) claims..

And, unfortunately, "immunity" against certain common strains of viruses will only last until the next serious mutated strain of that virus emerges, where it has evolved far enough as to be itself "immune" to those particular antibodies -- usually only a matter of years

Secondly, Sweden's new infections rate is still climbing, and is still a lot higher than many other parts of the world.

Pathetic deflecting bullshit.

Red is simply touting the line of the special interests. Basically, the special interests are removed from all the problems of society except one...if the economy stops turning, their part is lost too. That's why market declines and depressions are such a threat to them.

But their position, in Sweden as in the UK or US, is the same as in the situation of the coal mines: you, little guy, go to work, fill your lungs with that dust, get arthritis, get respiratory failure, die at an early age, leave your widow and family with nothing…and I'll sit up here in the clean office and count my money. Do you think in Sweden the special interests are exposing themselves?

It's the same in Sweden as elsewhere. The little people--the beasts-of-burden--are to be exposed, not the special interests. The premise is the same everywhere...who should be the canary in the coal mine (mixed metaphor, soz)? I am quite confident that the wealthy & privileged in Sweden are not going out and exposing themselves to the virus. They just want everyone else to do it.

"To a great part, we have been able to achieve what we set out to achieve," says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. "Swedish healthcare keeps on working, basically with a lot of stress, but not in a way that they turn patients away."

In contrast with other countries where political leaders have fronted the national response to the crisis, Dr Tegnell has led the majority of news conferences.

His tone is typically matter of fact, with a strong focus on figures, and few mentions of the emotional impact of the crisis on victims and their families.

But the Swedish Public Health Agency has maintained high approval ratings throughout the pandemic.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

If you have ever seen a waddle of penguins (and yes, that is the technical term for a group of penguins on land) on an ice flow, right before they jump in the water, you might have noticed something interesting. The penguins will all line up on the edge of the ice flow, bumping into each other, shouldering and pushing against their neighbors… until one falls in. Then they all jump in the water and do whatever the heck penguins do in the water. Why, you might ask?

Well, apparently penguins are a favorite snack for killer whales and the penguins, not knowing if an orca is waiting patiently under the ice flow, don’t want to be the first one in the water. So they each try to push their neighbor into the water to see if she makes it sans an orca bite. If the coast is clear, in they all go.

Herd immunity at its finest. If Aunt Alice gets eaten, it's back to the igloo.

It seems like Sweden's approach is being distorted somewhat by those who are in favor of re-opening societies quickly.

They haven't created as many hard-and-fast rules as other European countries have, but they have made strong recommendations that are largely being followed. Something like half of the Swedish population has been working from home since early March, I believe. People are following social distancing recommendations for the most part, as well.

Also, compared to neighboring countries like Denmark and Norway, which have much stricter lockdowns going on, Sweden has a much higher per-capita death toll.

They also don't have the concentrated population. Their largest city is approximately the equivalent of Austin, TX.

Original Quill wrote:They also don't have the concentrated population.  Their largest city is approximately the equivalent of Austin, TX.

Exactly that. Look at London and New York.

Sweden’s decision to avoid a strict lockdown like its European neighbors drew global attention and was not without controversy.

But now the country is past the peak of infections, its chief epidemiologist says, and there are few actions he would have done differently — apart from how elderly care homes were prepared for the outbreak.

“I don’t think anybody who is really thinking that much about this, is really sure about any strategy, because we’re all doing something that nobody did before,” Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who has led the country’s coronavirus response, told CNBC Thursday.

“On the other hand, it looks like it’s going to work out. We’re clearly past the peak in Stockholm and our health care (system) has been able to handle it, we have extra beds in the hospitals and everybody has been treated that needs to be treated, even non-Covid patients have been able to get treatment.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/sweden-coronavirus-chief-scientist-admits-lessons-have-been-learned.html

It appears some common sense changes were effective and the more draconian lockdowns in Europe provided very little in the way of more returns.