What will happen in 2020? Predictions for the biggest news stories next year

Here are The Week’s predictions for the main headline-grabbing stories of 2020:

US election
There are dozens of elections due to take place around the world next year, but the one that is likely to dominate the front pages is the US presidential poll on 3 November. Expect months of caucuses and primaries, as the large field of Democratic candidates is whittled down to one.

“In the race for the White House, President Donald Trump can lose up to 36 electoral [college] votes and still win. But his low approval ratings make this race a toss-up,” says Politico.

2020 Olympics Games
Tokyo will host the world’s largest sporting event next year, from 24 July to 9 August, with more than 200 nations and 11,000 athletes competing in 33 sports. The Olympic Games is followed by the Paralympics from 25 August to 6 September.

In a forecast released a year ahead of the Games, data service Gracenote Sports predicted that the US would win the most medals (126 overall), followed by China (81) and then host nation Japan (67), reports The Guardian. Great Britain is predicted to come fifth, with 43 medals in total.

Brexit
The UK is due to leave the EU on 31 January 2020. The two Article 50 extensions in March and October 2019 left the British public somewhat sceptical about “firm” departure dates.

But that was before Boris Johnson stormed to victory with a 80-strong majority in the general election in December, on the back of a campaign to “Get Brexit Done”. This enabled the government to comfortably pass the second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which is on course to become law in January – but that will not be the end of Brexit. The Leave date will mark the beginning of another set of detailed negotiations on how to reconstruct the UK’s entire relationship with the EU.

Tech world
While the fifth generation of mobile internet connectivity is already available, 2020 is likely to be the year when “5G really starts to fly”, according to Forbes. More affordable data plans and greatly improved coverage will mean super-fast speeds and more stable connections for everyone, says the magazine.

It also predicts that autonomous cars will continue to “generate a significant amount of excitement”, and there will be a wider adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) by businesses to improve customer experience and to streamline their operations.

Global economy
John Stepek, executive editor of MoneyWeek, says there are two economic indicators he will be watching closely in 2020: wages and oil.
“We’ve been at virtually full employment in most of the developed world for a few years now. This year we started to see signs that wages are rising more rapidly than inflation. If that continues or accelerates in 2020, it would be good news, but central banks will also find it increasingly tricky to justify keeping interest rates low,” he says.
Oil prices, meanwhile, have been largely steady this year owing to weak global demand and buoyant supply from US shale fields. “However, it doesn’t pay to get complacent,” says Stepek. “If the global economy turns out to be stronger than expected, or supply less abundant, prices could rise significantly. Higher oil prices tend to be correlated with economic havoc and political unrest.”

All of which leads us to...

Geopolitical instability
Protests raged around the world in 2019, from Hong Kong and Chile to Lebanon and Iraq. And experts are predicting further unrest next year.

Matthew Bradley, regional security director for risk services company International SOS, believes geopolitical shifts will be the number one danger next year. His company has released its 11th annual Travel Risk Map, which predicts the most dangerous countries in terms of security in 2020. Unsurprisingly, it includes Syria, Yemen, Libya and Afghanistan, as well as eastern Ukraine, Somalia and South Sudan.

Other anniversaries and key dates
Five years on from the Paris climate agreement, 2020 is seen as a key year for environmental action. Countries that signed up to the deal to cut carbon in 2015 will meet in Glasgow in November to assess how far they have come and what they need to do next.

Meanwhile, the UK’s May Day bank holiday has been moved to Friday 8 May 2020 to mark 75 years since the guns fell silent at the end of the Second World War. Expect a three-day international celebration of VE Day, with parades and concerts aplenty.

Next year is also the 250th anniversary of composer Beethoven’s birth and the 500th anniversary of Renaissance master Raphael’s death, with a series of international shows expected to take place in their honour.

A few other events that look set to grab the headlines include New Zealand’s autumn referendum on whether to legalise the personal use of cannabis, Expo 2020 in Dubai in October and the July launch of Nasa’s Mars 2020 Mission, which hopes to answer key questions about the potential for life on the red planet.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/104801/what-will-happen-in-2020-predictions-for-the-biggest-news-stories-next-year

Some good predictions, but I have to say something about Trump's chances -- he won by a very slim margin in 2016 and will be hard-pressed to pull it off again.

His Electoral College victory came down to about 20-30 thousand voters in key districts in the Midwest which have since turned against him. He's got to find other ways to sliver off pivotal votes, and he hasn't delivered upon any of his campaign promises.

He's also facing a Democratic Party that will no longer take him as a joke.

Also, Brexit is just a bit too complicated to be done -- by anybody -- within a month, sorry. I see it dragging out another year at minimum, and a lot can happen in a year.

Not to say I don't want to see it over and done already, for better or worse. It's become the wound that doesn't heal for the UK.

Ben Reilly wrote:Some good predictions, but I have to say something about Trump's chances -- he won by a very slim margin in 2016 and will be hard-pressed to pull it off again.

His Electoral College victory came down to about 20-30 thousand voters in key districts in the Midwest which have since turned against him. He's got to find other ways to sliver off pivotal votes, and he hasn't delivered upon any of his campaign promises.

He's also facing a Democratic Party that will no longer take him as a joke.

Also, Brexit is just a bit too complicated to be done -- by anybody -- within a month, sorry. I see it dragging out another year at minimum, and a lot can happen in a year.

Not to say I don't want to see it over and done already, for better or worse. It's become the wound that doesn't heal for the UK.

Trump was an unknown quantity last time around. A lot of folks were afraid he would wreck the economy or fundamentally change the country. The economy is fine, unemployment is low, people are basically safe. Not sure the country will change horses (yes he's a crazy fucking horse), especially if the choice is another old, weird, white person like Biden, Sanders or Warren. The Dems need an Obama. Someone young, articulate and charismatic. Buttleig matches those requirements, but probably won't finish above 3rd. Gabbard would give Trump fits, but the Dem party of 2020 isn't going to nominate her and will likely primary her in Hawaii. She stepped off the reservation one too many times.

Perhaps the break-up of the United States of America, and the peaceful rise of the Pacific States of America. One thing that Trump has taught us is the USA can be broken.

Now to pick up the pieces.

We now know the PRECISE answer to the question in the title.

Who the HELL could have predicted any of this just 3 months ago, at the turn of the year when all of us were busy making 101 other predictions?

Corona did not even cross anyone's mind.

Just goes to show how scarily unpredictable life really is.

JulesV wrote:Who the HELL could have predicted any of this just 3 months ago, at the turn of the year when all of us were busy making 101 other predictions?  

Corona did not even cross anyone's mind.

Just goes to show how scarily unpredictable life really is.

And that’s why life is so challenging! We just don’t know what will happen. It keeps us fresh and alive! Otherwise what would we be?

Hamsters in a wheel.

eddie wrote:

JulesV wrote:Who the HELL could have predicted any of this just 3 months ago, at the turn of the year when all of us were busy making 101 other predictions?  

Corona did not even cross anyone's mind.

Just goes to show how scarily unpredictable life really is.

And that’s why life is so challenging! We just don’t know what will happen. It keeps us fresh and alive! Otherwise what would we be?

Hamsters in a wheel.

Yeah, every once in a while we need a good punch to the face to wake us up, right?

I predict we aren't worried about straws going up turtles noses anymore.

Maddog wrote:I predict we aren't worried about straws going up turtles noses anymore.

Confirming my prediction, that Moscow McConnell will not be re-elected.

cant we just unplug 2020, count to 10 and plug it back in again?

Ben Reilly wrote:

eddie wrote:

And that’s why life is so challenging! We just don’t know what will happen. It keeps us fresh and alive! Otherwise what would we be?

Hamsters in a wheel.

Yeah, every once in a while we need a good punch to the face to wake us up, right?

Covid pulls no punches, fam.

Ben Reilly wrote:

eddie wrote:

JulesV wrote:Who the HELL could have predicted any of this just 3 months ago, at the turn of the year when all of us were busy making 101 other predictions?  

Corona did not even cross anyone's mind.

Just goes to show how scarily unpredictable life really is.

And that’s why life is so challenging! We just don’t know what will happen. It keeps us fresh and alive! Otherwise what would we be?

Hamsters in a wheel.

Yeah, every once in a while we need a good punch to the face to wake us up, right?

Yes. Sometimes we do, metaphorically speaking. It’s tough, of course but sometimes our hamster-wheel-lives can choke the life out of us.

US WARTIME CASUALTIES:
https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/civil-war-casualties



Total all wars: 1,354,664 soldiers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war.


2-million will die of Covid-19 in 2020 according to doctors' conservative estimates.  MSNBC, 3.30.20.

* Civil War: (revised estimate) 750,000 soldiers.  https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-17604991

I base this on two experts I've read recently. One estimated that COVID-19 could infect as much as 60 percent of the world. Another estimated that the virus would kill about 1-2 percent of those it infects.

If you go by that, there could be between 42 and 84 million COVID-19 deaths.

Sleep well!

Ben Reilly wrote:I base this on two experts I've read recently. One estimated that COVID-19 could infect as much as 60 percent of the world. Another estimated that the virus would kill about 1-2 percent of those it infects.

If you go by that, there could be between 42 and 84 million COVID-19 deaths.

Sleep well!

I fear that number is on the lower estimate Ben and more in tune with the number of deaths likely in the west. Not the actual number in third world countries which we know doubt will never truly know the full number from this afterwards. I think you will need to at least times by 5 your numbers of deaths I fear globally