How Theresa May finally persuaded the EU to unite against Russia

At her six previous meetings of EU leaders, Theresa May had cut an isolated figure as the bringer of unwanted problems in the name of Brexit. This time, however, the mood could not have been more different.

As the Prime Minister took her seat at the dinner table in Brussels’ Europa building, the eyes of 27 presidents and premiers were on her, and for the next four hours she was the fulcrum of a debate that would redefine the continent’s relationship with Russia.

By the next morning, ten EU countries were considering the co-ordinated expulsion of scores of Russian diplomats from their capitals. More seem likely to follow.

A European Council summit that had been scheduled to discuss the Brexit transition deal took on the atmosphere of a Cold War summit with Mrs May’s intervention.

While the starters of pan-fried scallops were being served shortly after 8pm on Thursday, Mrs May set out her argument that the use of Novichok nerve agent, coupled with Vladimir Putin’s track record of political assassinations, left no doubt about the Kremlin’s culpability for the Salisbury poisonings.

Then she played her trump card: British intelligence. Mrs May discussed material gathered by MI5, MI6 and GCHQ, coupled with the findings of scientists at Porton Down.

British experts have now isolated the precise type of Novichok used in the Salisbury attacks, and the likely location of the laboratory that made it, enabling Mrs May to tell the other leaders just how sure the UK was about Mr Putin’s involvement.

Mrs May’s 10-minute address electrified the room, stiffening the resolve of the other leaders to step up their response.

“Not a single one of the EU leaders challenged our intelligence assessment,” said a UK source briefed on the night’s events.

President Emmanuel Macron of France and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, with whom Mrs May had held a meeting before the dinner, were among the first to voice their backing, followed by the heads of the Baltic states, who know more than anyone about Russian aggression.

They agreed with Mrs May’s assessment of Mr Putin as a “long term threat” to each and every one of them. The unparalleled reputation of Britain’s intelligence agencies had helped carry the argument.

Senior EU diplomatic sources said Mrs May's measured approach had won over her fellow leaders. "Mrs May was at her very best," the source said. "She didn't overdo it - she didn't demand sanctions or anything like that - but very carefully laid out her case.”

Several EU leaders privately expressed renewed regret about Britain’s impending departure from the EU.  One EU diplomatic source said: “It was a reminder that the UK - perhaps along with France - is the only strategic EU power that Putin actually fears. It reminded everyone what the EU will be losing."

The drumbeat for tougher EU action had begun on Tuesday when EU foreign ministers met in Brussels. Frans Timmermans, the European Commission’s first vice president who previously served as a diplomat in Moscow, and Bulgaria’s representative, who recalled the KGB assassination of Bulgarian dissident Georgi Markov with a poison-tipped umbrella in 1978, were among those aligning with Britain over the need for tough action against Russia.

But the EU would only agree “it takes extremely seriously” the UK Government's assessment that Russia was to blame. Mrs May’s address to the EU leaders at Thursday night’s dinner changed all that.

The Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the Irish premier Leo Varadkar took the lead in drafting new wording for the shared statement.

Greece and Cyprus, two of the countries most sympathetic to Russia, were the hardest to convince, but in the face of overwhelming opposition they, and Italy - which fears the economic consequences of fresh sanctions - fell into line.

All 28 agreed that it was “highly likely” the Kremlin was behind the Skripal poisonings with “no other plausible explanation”. The final statement added: “We stand in unqualified solidarity with the UK in the face of this grave challenge to our shared security.”

As the clock struck midnight on Thursday the leaders were still discussing their response to Russia. Downing Street staff, who were not allowed in the room (virtually no-one other than the 28 leaders is) had to rely on Mrs May texting or emailing them from her mobile phone with updates.

Then came an unexpected bonus. The European Commission’s legal service was called into the dinner to give advice on ordering Russia’s ambassador to the EU to a meeting in Brussels, and out of that conversation emerged the idea of recalling the EU’s ambassador to Moscow as a clear statement of intent.

The 28 leaders agreed the unprecedented move, which gave succour to those already contemplating the expulsion of Russian diplomats.

Even before the dinner, Lithuania’s president Dalia Grybauskaite confirmed she was contemplating the deportation of Russians, and Poland’s deputy foreign minister Bartosz Cichocki told The Telegraph his country was prepared to act unilaterally in expelling Russians if it encouraged others to take steps against Moscow.

Hour by hour on Friday, the list of countries talking about expulsions grew longer. France, Estonia and Latvia had joined Poland and Lithuania in discussing co-ordinated deportations on Thursday evening, and they were followed by the Netherlands, Croatia, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Denmark. Germany, too, could soon follow.

As she left the summit in the early hours of Friday, Mrs Merkel said: “We’re determined to act in unity, through our words but also possibly through further measures.”

It means that dozens, and potentially hundreds, of suspected Russian spies could be sent back to Moscow in the weeks to come, rolling up Mr Putin’s continental espionage network at a stroke.

The Government believes Russia has been taken aback by the strength of the response to the attempted murders of Sergei and Yulia Skripal.

“In the past they have always got away with it,” said one Whitehall source.

“They will have spent weeks preparing their response to the West’s outrage before they carried out these attacks, but the fact that they have now tried to spin 18 different versions of how the Skripals could have been poisoned by someone else shows that they can’t find a narrative that is convincing anyone at all.”

As she left the summit shortly after 2am local time on Friday, Mrs May said: “I welcome the fact that the European Council agrees with the UK government’s assessment that it is highly likely that Russia was responsible for the attempted murder … This is about us standing together to uphold our values against the Russian threat.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/03/23/theresa-may-finally-persuaded-eu-unite-against-russia/

Not so easy for Putin to brush off the combined forces of the EU