Coffee Production Deficit of 3.5 million bags in the 2015-16 season that starts on Thursday

Global Coffee Shortage Looms as Market Braces for Climate Change
Whitney McFerron WMcFerron
October 1, 2015 — 3:18 AM CDT

A worker separates coffee cherries during harvest at a plantation in the Minas Gerais state near Guaxupe, Brazil.
Photographer: Patricia Monteiro /Bloomberg

• Crop needs to rise by 50 million bags in 10 years, Illy says
  
• Producers, industry groups meeting this week in Milan
  

The coffee-drinking world needs another Brazil, the world’s top grower and exporter of the beans, if it’s to avoid a shortage.
Rising consumption, especially in emerging markets, means global production will have to rise by an extra 40 million to 50 million bags of coffee in the next decade, said Andrea Illy, the chairman and chief executive officer of Illycafe SpA, a roaster based in Trieste, Italy. That’s more than the entire crop of Brazil.
Throw in the looming threat of climate change, as well as low prices that are discouraging farmers from increasing output, and you’ve got a potential problem. It’s something producers, government officials and industry representatives are trying to tackle this week at the Global Coffee Forum in Milan.

“Sooner or later, in months or years, we’ll have to make a bold decision about what to do,” Illy said in an interview on Wednesday. “We don’t know where this coffee will come from.”
The world is set for a coffee production deficit of 3.5 million bags in the 2015-16 season that starts on Thursday, Winterthur, Switzerland-based merchant Volcafe said in August. That follows a global shortage of 6.4 million bags the prior year. Brazil’s last crop was hurt by the aftermath of a severe drought in 2014 that drove arabica futures in New York up about 50 percent that year. Since the start of 2015, prices have retreated 27 percent as Brazil’s currency plunged against the dollar, boosting the appeal of the South American country’s exports.

Consumption Increase

Global coffee consumption will increase by a third to 200 million bags by 2030, according to Michael R. Neumann, chairman of board of trustees at Hanns R. Neumann Stiftung, a foundation that’s affiliated with Hamburg-based merchant Neumann Kaffee Gruppe. Production, pegged at 144 million bags this year, may rise to meet consumption for a balanced market in 2030, as long as smallholder farmers can boost productivity by then, he said in a speech Wednesday in Milan.

Climate change threatens a quarter of Brazil’s output and growers in Nicaragua, El Salvador and Mexico are facing potential losses unless farmers adapt, according to a study published in May by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture. Producing areas may need to shift from Central America to the Asia-Pacific region or eastern parts of Africa, where crops can be grown at higher altitudes, according to the report.

Arabica coffee, the premium bean that’s used by shops including Starbucks Corp., is most at risk from rising temperatures, Illy said. The robusta variety is more resilient or robust, as its name suggests, he said. Brazil is the largest arabica grower and Vietnam is the biggest producer for robusta. Illy only uses arabica.
Farmers are already making changes to adopt to rising temperatures, said Jean-Marc Duvoisin, CEO of Nestle SA’s Nespresso. The company sources coffee from parts of Latin America, Asia and Africa.
“I visit farms quite often, and the farms are always going higher in the mountains, higher in the mountains," Duvoisin said on a panel on Wednesday. “Warming has a negative impact.” 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-01/global-coffee-shortage-looms-as-market-braces-for-climate-change

Coffee Storage FAQ 
Does freezing hurt the flavor of coffee beans?
Freezing per se does not hurt the flavor of roasted coffee as long as you leave the coffee in the freezer until you are actually going to use it. Taking coffee in and out of the freezer is what is bad for maintaining its best flavor and aroma.
Where should I store green beans not opened from a vacuum-packed bag yet opened?
Anywhere, but avoid extreme temperature and humidity variations.
What do you recommend as the best method of storing 132 lbs of vacuum-packed coffee over the next year? Should I leave it in the vacuum sealed bags, or remove all to breathable pillowcases?
1) Keep all the sealed vacuum-packed bags intact until you are ready to open them. 2) If it takes you up to six weeks to go through a 33-lb bag, just close the opened bag tight with a clip. If longer, place whatever amount you will consume in one week in a Ziploc freezer bag and keep it in the freezer until you are ready to roast. Once coffee is out of the freezer, keep it in a tight container away form heat and light. The kitchen cupboard is best place in a home. Do not re-freeze green (or roasted) coffee. Do not take in an out of the freezer. Never store roasted coffee in the refrigerator. Keep it in a tight container (away from heat and light.)
3) Keep all coffees (in Mylar, burlap or cotton bags) in a cool, dry place, similar to a place that people would enjoy sleeping in.
Received the beans, thanks for the quick shipping as usual. I have a question--I noticed a past sale of yours had the green coffee beans in what appeared to be a Mylar vacuum sealed bag. I want to use this method for long term storage but am a little unclear on whether the beans need to breathe, as in a burlap bag. Is it okay to store long term in a Mylar metal vacuum sealed bag? 
Yes, long term storage of green coffee beans in a vacuum-packed Mylar bag is the best way to preserve them. We use industrial machines to vacuum-pack the beans in 15 kilo bags. However, you can use the household, food preserver vacuum-packers, available at Wal-Mart, Sam's, Costco, etc for under $60. Green coffee beans need to "breathe", if not vacuum-packed, when they are exposed to changes of humidity, hence the burlap (or cotton) bag. If you just store green coffee beans in a plastic bag, without vacuum-packing or maintaining constant humidity, they will get moldy and become ruined. Hope this helps.
How long can unroasted beans be stored? What is the optimum storage condition (type of container, temperature/humidity etc)?
In cool, dry conditions, green beans can be stored up to two years in a burlap bag. Ideal storage conditions for green coffee are 55 to 80 degrees Farenheit, with ambient humidity 60%-75% (to maintain 10-12% bean humidity). Burlap (or cotton) bags are used when there are humidity changes, so that the coffee can "breathe". Essentially, green coffees stays best in conditions that people would also like to sleep in.
My wife and I are thinking of buying one of your roasters so we can buy more of those beans from you in bulk. My questions are, how long are those beans good? Should you roast them all at once and then keep them, or roast only a couple weeks worth, and keep the rest of them green until used or what?
We are very happy to hear you are enjoying your burr coffee grinder and our sample coffees. We encourage you to join the roast-at-home coffee revolution and enjoy the freshest-roasted coffee around, and save significant amounts of money in the process!
Unlike roasted coffee, which it deteriorates significantly after about six weeks, green (unroasted) coffee beans stored in a cool, dry place (where most humans like to sleep) will keep for very long time (years). The best place to keep them is in your kitchen cupboard (not in the refrigerator). You can also freeze the green coffee, but only for long storage (not in and out of the freezer). Just pack them in one-pound freezer, zipper bags and take out one bag at the time to keep in your kitchen cupboard for that week's consumption.
Could you tell me the best way to store coffee? I have coffee tins that contained coffee when I purchased them. They have a screw top lid. Is it better to store coffee in one of these containers or keep the coffee in your foil bags?
I am assuming you are talking about roasted coffee. It all depends on how long you plan on storing your roasted coffee. If you will consume it in two weeks, the best (and easiest way) is just to get a sealed container (tin or ceramic with a lid) and keep the container in a cool, dry place like the kitchen cupboard. Our foil bags with a resealable tape or a clip are fine also. As long as you have a tight lid/close, it doesn't matter which one. You want to prevent air from getting into the coffee and oxidizing it. When coffee oxidizes, it becomes stale.
If you plan on keeping it longer than two weeks, package the roasted coffee in Ziploc freezer bags whatever amount you will consume in one week and only remove from the freezer one bag at the time. Once the coffee is out of the freezer store it as above. Do not re-freeze the coffee and do not take it in and out of the freezer. Under no circumstances you should store your roasted coffee in your refrigerator. It will acquire humidity (and become stale) and all other smells and flavors that you have in your fridge!
What is the shelf life of roasted coffee?
Up to three months, if kept in the sealed one-way foil bags. However, ideally roasted coffee should be consumed prior to the sixth week. It should be ground immediately before brewing.
Should we vacuum-seal roasted beans that haven't sold each day, or after 3 days?
After three days of being exposed to air (not kept in air-tight bags or containers), the damage is already done to roasted coffee. It is better not to roast any coffee that will not be consumed in three days if you are not going to store it in airtight containers. This is why I never buy roasted coffee from stores that keep them in large display bins. Unless they replace ALL the coffee every other day, the coffee is stale!
How long can coffee be kept in the foil gusseted bag with valve before it is used?
If you are roasting for yourself: although roasted coffee can be ground and consumed right after it has been roasted, it is best to let it rest (and de-gas) for four to eight hours, or overnight, after roasting. If you roast enough coffee for your consumption during the next three days, you do not need to store it in a sealed foil bag. Just leave the coffee exposed to air during the first 24 hours (to de-gas) and then you can keep it in a sealed ceramic container or Ziploc bag, away from light and humidity (so, definitely not in the refrigerator!) If you are storing or selling the coffee in foil gusseted bags with valve, it can stay fresh for up to a month in the bag.

sassy wrote:Oh lor, not something else I have got to stock up on, can't do without coffee!!

Major wrote:Best to stop drinking the orrubul stuff NOW, keeps one awake if taken late at night.

4EVER2 wrote:

Major wrote:Best to stop drinking the orrubul stuff NOW, keeps one awake if taken late at night.

Gotta have my 4 cup mug of velvety goodness with my flavored creamer every day or I just can't kick my blood into moving, Stormee. 

I'll drink Iced Tea the rest of my day or hot tea in the winter time ...but I've got to have that 4 cup mug at 4am or I AM DOOMED - I tell ya, D O O M E D!
And then never touch another cup after 10am or it's far too much caffeine for my blood pressure and it will keep me awake!

Major wrote:

4EVER2 wrote:

Gotta have my 4 cup mug of velvety goodness with my flavored creamer every day or I just can't kick my blood into moving, Stormee. 

I'll drink Iced Tea the rest of my day or hot tea in the winter time ...but I've got to have that 4 cup mug at 4am or I AM DOOMED - I tell ya, D O O M E D!
And then never touch another cup after 10am or it's far too much caffeine for my blood pressure and it will keep me awake!

I have about 1 mug a week.
A lot of people I know are like yourself for coffee they almost seem addicted to it, I have quite a lot of tea.
Each to his ownI suppose.

Keep supping.
Cheers.

eddie wrote:Ben, when I was in Greece for six weeks I got addicted to cold coffee! Man was it nice on a hot day!
I tried to make it when I got back but it must've been a Greek thing cos mine tasted like someone kind of mud-sludge with ice and just wasn't the same at all.

Didn't you and Veya have a thread about this where you compared coffee beans or something? Sure I recall Veya had a whole coffee contraption....?