U.K. Manufacturing, Export Slump Give BOE Reason for Caution

U.K. industrial production unexpectedly declined and goods exports plunged the most in nine years, indicating a loss of economic momentum that may keep the Bank of England on a cautious policy footing.

Total production fell 0.4 percent in July, the Office for National Statistics said in London on Wednesday, missing economists’ forecasts for a 0.1 percent increase. Sales of British goods abroad fell 9.2 percent, contributing to the biggest drop in factory output since January.

ONS ✔ @ONS
0.4% fall in total production in July, driven by #manufacturing, which was down 0.8% http://ow.ly/RY5bF 
9:31 AM - 9 Sep 2015

(Referring to Office of National Statistics http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/iop/index-of-production/july-2015/stb-iop-july-2015.html)

The figures come as BOE Governor Mark Carney leads a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee before it announces its latest interest-rate decision on Thursday. After disappointing factory and services surveys last week, the latest data may push the MPC into adopting a dovish tone on when to start raising borrowing costs from a record low.
“The economy is losing momentum. I don’t think it’s collapsing -- but there are clear signs of stress,” said Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “You see it in today’s numbers, in the external facing parts of the economy that are coming under pressure.”
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimated on Thursday that the economy grew 0.5 percent in the quarter through August, down from 0.6 percent and 0.7 percent in the two previous three-month periods.

ONS ✔ @ONS
Widening deficit in July driven by £2.3bn fall in export of goods, esp chemicals & manufactures http://ow.ly/RY5go 
9:32 AM - 9 Sep 2015

Manufacturing dropped 0.8 percent, against a forecast for a 0.2 percent increase. Oil and gas production fell 0.4 percent. Factory output dropped 0.5 percent from a year earlier, while overall production increased 0.8 percent.
The drop in output from June was due to summer shutdowns at auto factories beginning earlier than usual, along with a drop in weapons manufacturing.
The trade report from the ONS also proved disappointing. The goods trade deficit widened to 11.1 billion pounds ($17.1 billion) in July, more than economists forecast and the most in a year, led by a drop in exports of chemicals and manufactured goods. Imports increased 0.8 percent.
The deficit with countries outside the EU widened to 3.5 billion pounds, as exports plunged 12.6 percent on the back of falling shipments to the U.S., Switzerland and China.
A survey by Markit Economics last week showed manufacturing growth cooled in August as export orders fell. Producers blamed the decline in foreign demand on a strong pound, weakness in the euro area and the slowdown in China.
The ONS said Wednesday that the total trade deficit widened to 3.4 billion pounds. The surplus in services increased to 7.7 billion pounds.
In the second quarter, the total deficit narrowed more than previously estimated to 3.4 billion pounds. That raises the possibility that net trade contributed more to economic growth in the period than the 1 percentage point reported last month. The ONS cautioned the overall picture could change as it goes through its annual Blue Book revisions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/u-k-factory-output-unexpectedly-drops-while-exports-slump

What happened to Osborne's "rebalancing the economy"? Bloomberg: "The surplus in services increased to £7.7bn"!!!!!

At this rate we are going to end up back in recession!!!!  No investment, no recovery.

Not at all surprised, what with all the slumps in China over the last few moths so this was to be expected. Buisnesses are playing things with caution.

China's slump wasn't until August, the figures are for July, so August will probably be worse.

I think you are very wrong because it start long before this the panic in sales.

But it peaked in August and Osborne's policy cannot generate long term growth.

wrong again it helps if you work in the industry like i do though we are doing still ok

Didge is right

nothing any nation can do, as it is a stock marketed bubble. If China can mange to contain it then the world may not go into depression.. there is almost no chance of a recession not happening in the next couple of years, it is really a question of how severe? which will be largely determined by how well China contains the crash.

veya_victaous wrote:Didge is right

nothing any nation can do, as it is a stock marketed bubble. If China can mange to contain it then the world may not go into depression.. there is almost no chance of a recession not happening in the next couple of years, it is really a question of how severe? which will be largely determined by how well China contains the crash.

Sorry Veya, but you are very wrong.  When you are already persuing policies that have produced very little growth and more than doubled your debt, you cannot absorb outside factors easily.

So would a total "global village " economy prevent this sort of thing....NO....

a crash in one area would require help from everywhere else....

so effectively there would be "global depression" with resources (money" having to move out of some ares to rescue others, resulting in a fall in living standards in those areas "giving" ...which is what happens anyway in a depression....

so much for "globalisation"

sassy wrote:

veya_victaous wrote:Didge is right

nothing any nation can do, as it is a stock marketed bubble. If China can mange to contain it then the world may not go into depression.. there is almost no chance of a recession not happening in the next couple of years, it is really a question of how severe? which will be largely determined by how well China contains the crash.

Sorry Veya, but you are very wrong.  When you are already persuing policies that have produced very little growth and more than doubled your debt, you cannot absorb outside factors easily.

and you did that because of the USA subprime crash

UK has not been in charge of its economic destiny for decades, like everyone else it is reliant on the super economies.

It literally DOESN'T MATTER what you do on a national level, it is a pebble in lake, which is why with out the EU Europe including the UK will decline into irrelevance.

it is actually the failure to accept globalization that is causing most of the UK problems on all levels. Your nation is a Vassal now yet keep trying to behave like it is not which fails because it is not powerful enough.

victorismyhero wrote:So would a total "global village " economy prevent this sort of thing....NO....

a crash in one area would require help from everywhere else....

so effectively there would be "global depression" with resources (money" having to move out of some ares to rescue others, resulting in a fall in living standards in those areas "giving" ...which is what happens anyway in a depression....

so much for "globalisation"

yep were all in it together

how is it any worse? it isn't. maybe for the UK but that is only because In the past it balanced it's budget by murdering other communities

How is it better? Critical mass allows greater innovation faster enhancing the progress of humanity Plus a couple of Evil nations don't make everyone else suffer and take no risk or hardship themselves just force it onto others down the barrel of a gun.