Latest Polls

Earlier on today we had a new poll from Panelbase, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. Full tables are here. I’m expecting quite a few polls out tonight – Survation’s regular poll for the Mirror is due, we have the daily YouGov poll for the Sun and there may well be others to boot.
I’ll be out this evening, but will do a round up of them all once I return. In the meantime feel free to discuss them here as they appear.
UPDATE: On top of the Panelbase poll we have three other GB voting intention polls, from ComRes, Survation and YouGov:
Survation’s latest poll for the Mirror has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4% (tabs).
ComRes’s latest telephone poll for the Mail & ITV has toplines of CON 36%, LAB 32%, LAB 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5% (tabs)
YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Looking at reactions on social media there are lots of people getting excited or dismayed by getting two Conservative four point leads in short succession. There is always a temptation to look for movement in the random variation of polls (especially when there has been so little genuine movement to get excited over!). However, there are four polls today – two Conservative leads, two Labour leads. The time to pay attention would be when the balance of the polls consistently starts showed one party or the other ahead, right now they still seem pretty evenly balanced.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/


Still neck and neck

Tory support edges up to 35% with Labour standing still on 32%, in survey that also finds NHS still top priority for voters

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/conservatives-three-point-lead-over-labour-guardian-icm-poll


Ashcroft National Poll: Con 36%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 11%, Green 7%

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/ashcroft-national-poll-con-36-lab-30-lib-dem-9-ukip-11-green-7/


The You Gov poll for the Sun suggests Ed Miliband's party is on 34%, with the Tories on 33%, UKIP on 14%, Liberal Democrats on 8% and the Green Party on 5%.

http://news.sky.com/story/1472757/one-point-lead-for-labour-party-in-new-poll

The Tories will win
Don't want them to, but they will

But the Tories keep on scoring massive own goals,courtesy of shocking advice and strategy from Crosby.
After the ghastly debacle of Boris being creamed as a bullying toff against Miliband on Sunday, followed by the revelation that the lastest letter from 5000 businesses ws a total sham, created in tory HQ and filled with ficticious names, the effect takes 2 or 3 days to filter through to polls.
The latest poll in the Tory Mail has Labour ahead.

eddie wrote:The Tories will win
Don't want them to, but they will

The Tories only win when there is something massively wrong with the Labour candidate...like he's caught running a paedo-ring, selling drugs or backing a Republican in a war.

This year it's back to normal.

eddie wrote:The Tories will win
Don't want them to, but they will

The Tories will win for one simple reason.
The economy, people have seen time and time again Labour screw it up and to people it is the economy which matters most no matter what polls say about the NHS.
People will always vote with whats is in their pockets or who will provide the most money in their pockets

TNS’s latest poll has topline GB voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%


YouGov’s daily poll will, as usual, be out around half-past ten. Their figures in last night’s poll for the Sun were CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

From what i'v read in the papers, a quarter of voters have not made up their minds yet, and a quarter of voters have lied about who they are voting for! So all these polls are meaningless.

nicko wrote:From what i'v read in the papers,   a quarter of voters have not made up their minds yet, and a quarter of voters have lied about who they are voting for!    So all these polls are meaningless.

Really, that is news to me and you get this from newspapers who lie anyway?

Polls tend to be there or there about in regards to how people vote

As an example, the Mirror said Kinock would win for Labour so did some polls, he didn't did he?

nicko wrote:As an example,  the Mirror said Kinock   would win for Labour so did some polls, he didn't did he?

Like I said, you do realise for one newspapers are biased and that they lie.
That is one example of where the polls were wrong of which I agree.
How many other elections though were wrong?

nicko wrote:As an example,  the Mirror said Kinock   would win for Labour so did some polls, he didn't did he?

One example from over 20 years ago. Of course it 'could' happen again- but if I were a betting man...

Another busy day for polling. We have only one GB voting intention poll today, but from a brand new pollster (later on we’ll have the regular daily poll from YouGov and the ComRes/Mail/ITV poll). However we also have a new Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI, three new constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft and a new poll of Con-Lab marginals from ComRes.

The new GB voting intention poll is from BMG Research for May 2015. It’s an online poll, using the sort of weightings and adjustments ICM use – so weighted by past vote, weighted by likelihood to vote with people who didn’t vote weighted down, and with 50% of people who say don’t know assumed to vote for the party they did last time. This has produced topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 32%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 14%, GRN 3% – full tabs are here.

MORI’s Scottish poll shows, as ever, a huge SNP lead. Topline figures are CON 17%, LAB 20%, LDEM 5%, SNP 54% (tabs). This would be enough for the SNP to win just about everywhere. A measure of just how vast the change has been in Scotland is that we are no longer surprised by polls showing the SNP with huge landslide leads in Scotland – we should be. A thirty-four point lead for the SNP in an area that Labour has consistently won since the 1960s is astounding and appears to be a true realignment in Scottish politics. We end up paying to the rest of the country because England and Wales are on a knife-edge while the outcome of Scotland appears settled, it’s just a question of how colossal the SNP landslide is, but it’s good to sit back occasionally and gawp at the scale of the turnaround in Scottish politics since a year ago.

Lord Ashcroft released three new constituency polls. The first was of South Swindon – a typical Con-Lab marginal seat, but not of any great importance beyond that. At the last election Robert Buckland had a majority of 7.5%, so with the national polls level we’d expect to find Conservative and Labour pretty much neck-and-neck here. That’s what Ashcroft found in his last two polls of the seat, it’s still the case now – a Conservative lead of just one point.

The other two seats are far more unusual affairs. The first is Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg’s own constituency. Ashcroft’s previous polling of the constituency has consistently found a very tight race between Labour and the Liberal Democrats (despite the fact that it used to the Tories who were main alternative to the Liberals here). Ashcroft’s poll today shows a Labour lead of one point, so far too close to call. Interestingly comparing the standard voting intention question and the constituency question a quarter of Conservative voters say they will actually vote Lib Dem in Hallam, suggesting significant Tory tactical voting propping up Nick Clegg.

The last of Ashcroft’s polls was in Thanet South, the seat being contested by Nigel Farage. There has been substantial polling in this seat, with recent Survation polls commissioned by UKIP donor Alan Bown showing a solid lead for Nigel Farage and other polling by ComRes showing a tight three way race between Conservative, Labour and UKIP. Ashcroft found a tight race between Conservative and UKIP, with the Tories just three points ahead, but Labour now clearly back in third place – CON 34%, UKIP 32%, LAB 26%. Tables for all three polls are here.

Finally there was a new ComRes poll of battleground Con-Lab marginals. As I’ve written before, the key to understanding marginal polls is to look at how those seats voted last time, what they change is, and how that compares to the national picture. This poll isn’t the 40 closest Lab-Con marginals that ComRes usually poll in their marginals omnibus, but a different bespoke sample of the fifty most marginal Con held marginals with Labour in second place. In 2010 there was an average Conservative lead of 4 points across these seats, while in today’s poll ComRes found a 3 point Labour lead. This is a 3.5 swing from Conservative to Labour, or the equivalent of a national poll showing Labour and Conservative neck-and-neck. Full tables are here

The 3.5 swing is in line with the national swing across all the polls (though a little bigger than the swing in ComRes’s telephone polls). However, I’m not sure that national polls are the right comparison – almost all Lab-Con marginals are in England, and because Labour have collapsed in Scotland the swing to Labour is actually bigger in England & Wales than the national polls imply. I’m going to try write at more length about the different battlegrounds at the weekend, but at first glance it looks to me as if there if the Conservatives may be doing a little better in the key marginals than across England and Wales as a whole… but Labour are doing a little better in England and Wales as a whole than in GB, so the two factors cancel each other out and the marginals swing is about the same as the national GB swing.


http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

interestingly enough

would it not be good for scotland to "go swanning off on its own"

It would as I understand require that WE reapply for E.U membership


ooooh I smell a referendum.......

darknessss wrote:interestingly enough

would it not be good for scotland to "go swanning off on its own"

It would as I understand require that WE reapply for E.U membership


ooooh I smell a referendum.......

They would have to apply, there still would be a UK which would not have to apply to enter as it is already in.

eddie wrote:The Tories will win
Don't want them to, but they will

oh I pray you are right Eddie

we DO NOT want millipede, in bed with that scots bride, ruining this country
the torys are, sadly the "best of a bad bunch"

Nemesis wrote:

darknessss wrote:interestingly enough

would it not be good for scotland to "go swanning off on its own"

It would as I understand require that WE reapply for E.U membership


ooooh I smell a referendum.......

They would have to apply, there still would be a UK which would not have to apply to enter as it is already in.

DAMN

darknessss wrote:

Nemesis wrote:


They would have to apply, there still would be a UK which would not have to apply to enter as it is already in.

DAMN

However if England went independent, not so sure, I guess again they would have to apply to enter.

hopefully they would turn us down

eddie wrote:The Tories will win
Don't want them to, but they will

They probably will win as there usually is a drift back to the government who has been in power in the days leading up to the election. Cameron had a big lead in 2010 but was hauled back and couldn't get the majority he wanted. They'll get the most seats but probably not enough for a clear majority.
Unless there is a huge game changer in the last few days it's just too difficult to predict what will happen.

Then be prepared for hard times and austerity not seen since the great recession of the 1920's.vat WILL go up, benefits wilm be massacred to pay for yet more tax cuts for the millionaires.

|At least the robbing bastard chancellor wont raid my pension pot, meagre as it is

Shouldn't worry, by the time he has put up VAT and destroyed the NHS you will have to spend the pension on health care anyway.

risingsun wrote:Shouldn't worry, by the time he has put up VAT and destroyed the NHS you will have to spend the pension on health care anyway.

at least I'll have a choice then wont I

It wont be robbed off me to give to some "poor" foreigner
or provide money to establish a "lets make 3 year olds sign an agreement authority"

Yea, let's not make the world a better place for all, let's keep them in their place suffering, because it's all they deserve after all and we are entitled to so much more, just because we were born on a particular strip of land

If YOU want to make someone better off to YOUR detriment then fine

there is nothing that says I have to.....

Good that your back sassy, but please don't bore the pants off us with interminable posts about how rotten Israel is.

It is good to see Sassy back but your last comment was a bit out of the blue nicko eh

I have finally decided who Im voting for. I think they are all as bad as each other but I have decided it on one issue in the end.
Polls are so unreliable as to be pointless sometimes.

Eilzel, Sassy's posts about Israel just go on and on. If you look at the replies to these posts most of them are ignored. Posters get sick of them,they read the first couple of lines and then go on to the next post.