Russia and Greece vs. the West: A geo-strategic 'game, set and match'?

Moscow

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is headed to Russia April 8 to meet President Putin. With Russia and China emerging as an alternative to US-World Bank economics, the safe bet could be on a Russo-Greco bridge.

Greece's Industrial Reform Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and Syriza MP Thanasis Petrakos were in Moscow the last two days laying the groundwork for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' meet with Vladimir Putin. As a squirming cauldron of edgy bankers, politicians, and generals west of the Bosporus look on with prescience at the prospects, Russia and China have a singular opportunity. As a caveat, Petrakos told Spiegel Online and other media:

"This visit is very important for Greece. We intend to deepen our relationship with Russia in the energy sector and thereby hope to gain a significant advantage."

A couple of weeks ago I reported on Tsipras' acceleration of his meetup with Putin. With talks in Berlin and with Brussels upcoming, the Greek Prime Minister set out to play his country's economic hand with the cards he had been dealt. Holding a Russo-Greco deal over the bankers' heads, this was not genius, only deal-making 101. The follow up report the other day asking if Brussels had "warmed" to Tsipras' ideas of debt consolidation spoke of potential cooperation between Greece and Russia in terms of commodities like gold, and "collateral" to ensure Russia's "yield" on any deal would be guaranteed. What I did not speak of was long term gain for Russia, and all her investment interests, should Athens cement relations with Moscow. Here are some keen observations for predictive measures on the coming meetup.

To glimpse these other possibilities, a short lesson in geostrategy may be in order. Greece occupies a supremely strategic location in the eastern Mediterranean. The country's control over the Aegean Sea, and the subsequent control of sea lanes in between Mediterranean and Black Sea ports, as well as islands close to Syria and to shipping lanes coming out of Egypt's Suez Canal, make her crucial to any NATO or regional defense strategy. Added to this, the Aegean Sea is estimated to hold over four billion barrels of oil, not to mention key potential in other sectors. To fully understand this, a brief geography and politics reminded is necessary.

Nixon Doctrine Backfire

In the centuries old game of European geostrategic maneuvering Greece and Russia have a special value. For the former, the theories of General Karl Haushofer and a new model of German lebensraum bear out Frau Angela Merkel's Greece bailout dilemma in the coming weeks. As for Russia, at least in the case of Greece today, Alfred Thayer Mahan's "The Problem of Asia" writings seem to be coming to fruition. For the sake of simplification, the United States, Germany, and especially NATO need Greece firmly in their grasp. Nay I'll content here, the so-called western nations, will be in an untenable situation without the Greeks. That is, if some form of continued American-British hegemony is desirable. You see Mahan conceived of strategy before 1900 aimed at denying Russia commerce and emergence. His further theories also described "balancing" the Russia "threat" by creating a "force" in Turkey, Syria, and Mesopotamia (Iraq) to further prevent Russian expansion.

As we can easily see today, the "force" being exerted in 2015 is conflict and chaos. Truth be told, what we are witnessing is a backfire of a doctrine dreamed up by none other than Dr. Henry Kissinger, Richard Nixon's Secretary of State, and the man you see defended by Senator John McCain in Senate hearings. It was Kissinger and Nixon who planned the realignment of power in the modern world, setting Russia and China against one another. His theories were later continued and expanded by Zbigniew Brzezinski, whom we see advising presidents continually since the Nixon years. Fast forward to today and a Russia benefiting from globalization, and the old game is not working so well any more. Unable to curtain Russia's inevitable growth any longer, owing to the country's vast untapped resources and emergent society, the NATO group have effectively lost (by their leaderships' standards) the great Russophobic war. Now you've an admission ticket for what's really set to happen in Moscow one month before the May 9th victory in WWII celebrations.

On April 8th Greece is set to become the most valuable piece of real estate among NATO nations. The people there having suffered long because of corruption inside and outside their borders, they've nothing to lose, no love lost for Germany or her NATO companions. In fairness, Greeks adore no nation so much as their own. I expect Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping have already set their minds as to what the "offer" will be. Havingalready agreed to join China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) on April 14, Russia will in all likelihood make Tsipras a deal he cannot refuse. Some combination of massive Chinese money investment, a Gazprom deal from Russia of equivalent value, and Greece will be back in the game sans NATO, the euro, and worries about defense spending.

A Case for Debt Do Over

Not many of the investors (except for Boeing, Raytheon, and others) who flocked to read the first of my stories (metrics tell me interest in Greece intense) are aware Greece spends more than all but one of the 27 NATO countries after the United States. By the way, the US,Germany, and France are the beneficiaries of Greece's arms expenditures, so a chunk of the country's current budget goes to defense contractors. No doubt news of this creates even more of an austerity sore for Greek taxpayers. Where the metal meets the meat in Moscow, I'd be dully surprised if Putin's finance people did not advise Greece to take every advantage, then to default and return to the drachma, at which time Russia and China could easily escalate the currency buying into Greek endeavors. After all, the Obama administration's easing off Goldman Sachs, when that firm's involvement in the Greek crisis has yet to be resolved, leaves Tsipras' situation as a "catch-as-catch-can " choice.

After all is said and done, since when is cheating and defaulting on obligations a crime these days? Greece can earn €300 billion in one day, and another €300 billion in Gazprom gas, China capital, and Russian arms deals (Mr. Lavrov gives hints) to shortchange western manufacturers. Add in free flights from Moscow and St. Petersburg for the tourist season, and Greece could be the richest country in eastern Europe before summer's end. Who could really blame the Greek people? American bankers double dipping, German arms dealers recouping revenue from EU bailouts, 30 percent unemployment and Germans here calling the Greeks "lazy" slackers? My only question is "when" will Portugal, Spain, and Italy tell Frankfurt and Washington to bugger off.

In all seriousness, given the current situation in the United States, the UK, and in the EU debt wise, it seems clear "the west" cannot bid higher than China and Russia for Greece's affections. The EU is in no position to either bail out Greece, or to contest Moscow in courting favor. The United States' catastrophic foreign policy failures since 9/11, a debt bubble set to explode at home, and civil problems that would cripple any other country leave Washington scrambling to plug holes in the NATO alliance and the geostrategic limbo to come. The politicians in Washington not only have the world in a fix, but the American people are poised blindfolded on a fiscal cliff. David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget for President Ronald Reagan, says America is so addicted to debt a catastrophe is imminent. Experts from real estate legend Donald Trump to best selling author Robert Wiedemer have predicted as recently as this month a "bust" somewhere in between catastrophic and total collapse for the US economy.

All these variables and more weigh on Greece's leader, the chorus of EU principals, and Washington looking on as the Russo-Greek summit awaits in Moscow. I was reading just now a sentient piece about Greece being able to seize opportunity in these critical times. Ideas like a Greek-Cypriote doctrine of common defense, "The New Grand Strategy of Greece and its Mediterranean Geostrategic Imperatives" by Alexander Th. Drivas, emerge as a new construct for the Greek people. It seems pertinent right here to point out Greece is actually a good investment for Putin, or anybody for that matter. The chart below shows the situation with deposits still higher than before the hyper inflated years that led to the country's crash. An infusion of business in Greece can surely fund full recovery, especially if the country changes currency and affiliations. I'm no economists, but I know Russia's fiscal experts have not overlooked the potential.

It is also no insignificant that Russian Foreign Minister mentioned at a recent meeting with Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias the Orthodox religious ties Russia and Greece share. To quote Lavrov:

"In 2016, there will be another important anniversary: 1,000 years of a Russian monastic presence on Mount Athos - commemorative events have been planned."

The gist of his ideas, rumors, and real tangible business do support my theory as to Putin's upcoming offers to help Greece become the regional power it once was too. Clearly the Greeks stand to gain a lot more outside the EU and NATO, than they ever did clinging to bad ideas turned disastrous. Expect a big play in the news April 9th.

http://www.news786.in/article.php?id=MTUwNDQ=#.VR2uFwMY-sE.twitter

GREECE !!!

AS IF Greece is ever going to be a real and credible threat to anyone now or in the future !!!

NO Money..
NO Natural Resources..
RECORD 160% National Debts..
LAZIEST population in 'Western' Europe.

ONE of the greatest concentrations of a country's remaining 'wealth' held in only a few 'elitist' hands..

Pathetic shithouse military, hasn't won a war in over two thousand years ~ even lost the civil war against themselves back in 1915/'16, or whenever it was...

Plus...lousy lawyers!

Greek bailout talks: Are stereotypes of lazy Greeks true?

Greece has been accused of wasting time after weeks of wrangling over economic reforms needed to extend its eurozone bailout and pay its debts.

Strong statements from Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have created an impression that its new left-wing leaders are not pulling their weight.

German tabloid Bild recently launched a campaign against an agreement, printing the banner headline "NEIN!" across an entire inside page, and encouraging readers to take selfies with the poster.

"No more billions for greedy Greeks," it demanded.

Lazy caricature

It was a characterisation familiar to many in Greece.

"The reaction of the European Union countries to the new Greek government's attempts for renegotiating on the debt issue as well as the reforms it is currently proposing has been, sadly, predictable," says Athens-based entrepreneur George Kollias.

"It is easy and equally wrong to use stereotypes such as lazy and greedy to characterise all Greeks, a trend that can also be seen in the attempt to create a caricature out of the Greek finance minister, not on his proposals but on his persona."

Similar language was heard back in 2010, when Sweden's Finance Minister, Anders Borg, said: "Obviously, Swedes and other taxpayers should not have to pay for Greeks who choose to retire in their 40s.

"That is unacceptable."

And, on Monday, the chair of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, called on Greece to stop "wasting time" and get down to serious talks to secure an extension of its €240bn (£176bn; $272bn) bailout.

This is less explicit perhaps, but could the stereotype of the "lazy" or "greedy" Greeks, dragging their heels, be permeating the language surrounding the debt talks more widely?
'Retire very early'

"That narrative has certainly taken over," says Raoul Ruparel, head of economic research at the think tank Open Europe.

"One point that always comes up is that it's easy to retire very early, or get very generous pensions."



Figures from the European Commission suggest Greeks do retire earlier on average than many others in the EU - but the margin is not quite so pronounced.

In 2012 people in Greece received their first pension payment at the average age of 57.8, the data show. The country ranks just below Italy, where the average age is 58, while Germans took their first pension payment at 61.1.

The EU's figures also put Greece's spending on pensions, as a percentage of its gross domestic product (GDP), as the highest in Europe in 2012.

But last month the Wall Street Journal took the figures and divided them by the number of people over 65 in each country to come to a different conclusion.

It found that spending per head in Greece was less than the EU average, and behind that of Germany, Ireland and Italy among others.

And figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) would appear to give a picture of Greek workers that is far from lazy - they say Greeks work the longest hours in Europe.



Experts say this is partly due to the nature of work in Greece compared with elsewhere - with more people employed, for example, in agriculture or in shops with long opening hours - and differences in efficiency.

But they also take fewer holidays than workers in Germany, France and Sweden, according to EU figures.

Stigma

Data can be used to back up different arguments - and it is important to remember that countries have different ways of collecting it.

But with Greece's debt now at 175% of its GDP, what is clear is that the country has been living beyond its means.

Greece is still not producing enough of what the world wants and is not earning sufficient money for it, focusing heavily on tourism, shipping and exports of fruit and raw materials.

This has left Greece's leaders under pressure to show how they are going to raise funds, change systems and pay back the country's debt, which stands at about €320bn (£237bn).

Their plans include combating tax evasion and tackling corruption, and there are suggestions they could hire "non-professional" inspectors, including tourists, to spy on tax evaders.

Mr Ruparel says tax evasion in widespread in Greece, carried out by middle-earners and not just "big property owners".

"It's not through complex schemes, it's simply through shops not giving receipts, and the government not keeping track of what people earn."

The extent of the problem makes it easier for that stigma of the "greedy" Greeks to take hold, he adds.

'Not doing enough'

Meanwhile observers say there is some scepticism over how the Syriza-led government will create an infrastructure capable of stopping the problem - as well as pay for it.

And Michael Fuchs, vice-chairman of Chancellor Merkel's CDU parliamentary party, told the BBC last month that Greece's lack of a proper land registry enabled corruption and threatened to prevent the country raising funds from privatisation.

Sandro Scocco, chief economist at the Stockholm-based think tank Arena Ide, says he expects Syriza to continue to pursue the political values that helped it win the general election in January - such as rolling back on austerity measures - despite the pressure.
Syriza has campaigned against austerity measures, which is says have hit people hard

"We are still going to hear that they are not doing enough."

The idea of lazy Greeks is a "deeply unfair description", he believes, used by politicians to defend themselves by claiming their voters want them to be tough on the Greeks.

"Using simple and erroneous explanations to single out scapegoats does not bode well for the future or for the EU," he wrote in a Social Europe blog earlier this month.

"If this continues there's probably not much hope for Greece - and perhaps not even the euro."

It has not always been the Greeks that have been portrayed this way.

In the mid-19th Century, rather than efficient and hardworking the Germans were typically described by the British as "a dull and heavy people", says Cambridge University economist Ha-joon Chang.

He points out that Frankenstein author Mary Shelley wrote after a particularly frustrating altercation with her coach-driver that the "the Germans never hurry".

Back in Athens, George Kollias is anxiously waiting for a decision on his country's finances.

"My greatest fear at this moment is that the discussion at the EU is not held on a collaborative and constructive level but a punitive and political one," he says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31803814




And there's a Greek Lawyer for you Quill lol

I think Bee and I have an insider's joke going.  Two or three forums ago, we had an adversary (RW) who's (shall we say) impulse-control was lacking.  

He claimed to have been born in Turkey, but we later found out he was born in Athens.  He is currently a lawyer in NYC, and given to rash, unsubstantiated RW claims.  At one point he did something that is illegal on-line, and I turned him in to the New York Bar Association for professional discipline.

Whenever something comes up about Greeks, it never fails that he is remembered.  Lol.

GOOD OL' 'Nick the Greek' [Nickolas P.], I remember well his constant attempts at blackmailing people !!!


BY The By :

AUSTRALIA has the largest Greek population outside of Greece...

MELBOURNE is recognised by the Greek government as the city with the 4th largest Greek population..

A LOT of cafes, fruit shops and milkbars/takeaways in Oz are owned and run by Greek families.

I Worked with a couple of 1st-generation Greek-Australians back in the 1980s..