Tories open four point lead over Labour

Boost for David Cameron as Conservative party puts in strongest showing in polls for nearly two years with increased voter focus on the importance of jobs, prices and wages.

The Conservatives have opened up a four-point lead over Labour after the biggest surge in their support for two years, a poll has suggested.
A Guardian/ ICM poll showed that the Tories are six points up to 36 per cent, only one point short of their result in the 2010 General Election.
Labour support fell one point to 32 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats were also down a point to 10 per cent.
The Tories recovery came amid falling support for the smaller partied, with Ukip down two points to 9 per cent and the greens two points to 7 per cent.
The Tory lead contrasts with three surveys published over the weekend which suggested that Labour has a two or three point lead.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11415687/Tories-open-four-point-lead-over-Labour.html



As I keep saying it is all about who is perceived to able to put money in your back pocket.

It’s Monday, so we have the usual rush of polls – the daily YouGov, twice-weekly Populus, weekly Ashcroft and monthly ICM. I’ll update this post as they come in, and do a round up at the end of the day.

Populus have topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%. Tables are here.

ICM for the Guardian have figures of CON 36%(+6), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 10%(-1), UKIP 9%(-2), GRN 7%(-2). The six point jump for the Conservatives looks particularly sharp but usual caveats apply. While it tends to be the polls that show unusual results or big changes that get all the attention, they are actually the ones we should be most dubious about. If there has been a genuine surge in Conservative support, then we’ll see it across all the pollsters, and other polls so far this month have shown things pretty stable.

Ashcroft and YouGov are still to come.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9252

Wait and see on other polls I think Labour are going to continue to slide in the weeks to come

Conservatives are celebrating a new ICM poll for The Guardian released today which gives David Cameron’s party a sensational six per cent jump in support - despite last week's difficulties over party donors and tax avoidance.

If the Tories could take that figure and improve on it in the coming weeks, they might not only win the election, but achieve a Commons majority.

However – and it’s a big HOWEVER – this wasn’t the only poll released this afternoon. A new Ashcroft National Poll shows Conservative support falling four points, allowing Labour to gain the lead for the first time this year in an Ashcroft poll.

Where do these two opposite polls leave us? Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report comments: “I think we can be fairly confident that what we are seeing with these two is just random noise, the back and forth of normal sample error.”

Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/general-election-2015/62049/general-election-2015-tory-joy-at-6-poll-jump-but-what-s-this-a#ixzz3RwyvT3MJ

random noise = politics = random noise

darknessss wrote:random noise = politics = random noise

Ya just gotta be accomplished in rational thought, Vic. Take's practice.

nothing rational about ANY of our lot quill the whole lot of em are "mad as a box of frogs"

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 30%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 16%, Green 8%

Monday, 16 February, 2015 in The Ashcroft National Poll

By Lord Ashcroft

Labour have taken a narrow lead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The party are ahead by a single point with 31%, with the Conservatives on 30%, UKIP up two points at 16%, the Lib Dems unchanged at 9%, and the Greens up two at 8%.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/ashcroft-national-poll-con-30-lab-31-lib-dem-9-ukip-16-green-8/

First time Ashcroft has put Labour in the lead.