Unlikely that Vladimir Putin behind Skripal poisoning Attack would have been counterproductive for Russia and jeopardise future spy swaps

British prime minister Theresa May put two scenarios to parliament on Monday. The attack on former British-Russian spy Sergei Skripal may have been planned directly by the Kremlin or that through lax scrutiny Russia allowed the nerve agent to fall into the wrong hands. The situation is more complicated than that.

The nerve agent called Novichok is a very deadly substance, eight times more powerful than its western equivalent known as VX. There are also indications that it could have been smuggled out of the former Soviet Union as far back as 1993.

In September of 1993 as The Irish Times Moscow correspondent I obtained a list of chemical and biological weapons, including Novichok, that were being produced by Russia as the successor state to the Soviet Union. I brought these documents to the recognised expert at the time Dr Thomas Stock of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Dr Stock’s reaction was that Russia immediately needed western financial help to stop Novichok and other chemical and biological agents being exported illegally by criminal elements. Western help arrived eventually but was it too late. The countries of the former Soviet Union, with the exception of the Baltic nations, were in chaos at the time.

There was money to be made in those days when inflation had reached 2,500 per cent in a single year. Those who became extremely rich by selling natural resources, military equipment or anything they could get their hands on became known as the Russian oligarchs, but not all the oligarchs were Russian. The main production plant for Novichok was in Uzbekistan.


Produced illegally

It is also possible that Novichok has since been produced illegally. It is made from chemical elements which are harmless on their own but lethal when combined.

Theresa May’s first scenario, that the Kremlin was directly involved, seems unlikely. Skripal was in the UK as part of an official spy-swap deal with Russia. The only suggestion of suspicious activities on Skripal’s part has been a report in the Daily Telegraph that he was close to an unnamed person in the organisation run by Christopher Steele, who produced the dossier claiming Russia had compromising material on Donald Trump.

For President Vladimir Putin to have launched such a vicious attack would have been counterproductive as it would jeopardise any spy swaps in the future.

There have been comparisons made with the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, poisoned with polonium in London in 2006, but this took place under very different circumstances. Former Canadian ambassador to Russia and former high commissioner of Canada in London, Jeremy Kinsman, made this point clearly in a recent interview on Canadian TV.

Litvinenko was not in Britain on an official deal agreed between London and Moscow. He was also, unlike Skripal, involved in activities that were strongly disapproved of by Russia. The Kremlin had far greater reason to have Litvinenko eliminated than it had to launch an attack on Skripal, and this brings us to the oligarchs.

City of choice

London has become the city of choice for those who have made vast fortunes following the fall of the Soviet Union and not all of them have been squeaky-clean model citizens. Boris Berezovsky, for example, who employed Litvinenko, had been a prime suspect in organising the murder of American journalist Paul Klebnikov. Forbes Magazine, Klebnikov’s employer, continues on its website to point the finger in Berezovsky’s direction. A former British diplomat has told me in private that giving Berezovsky asylum was considered a major mistake in UK diplomatic circles.

The anti-Putin Berezovsky died in mysterious circumstances not long after he had lost a court case against pro-Putin oligarch Roman Abramovich, owner of Chelsea FC. British police ruled that his death was suicide but there are those in Britain who believe, or want to believe, he was murdered.

The oligarchs have been welcomed in London financial circles because of the amount of their money. They have been welcomed too by May’s Conservative party, which, according to recent reports in the London Times and Daily Telegraph, has received donations of £820,000 from Russian sources. Chancellor Philip Hammond has refused to return the money because he did not want to tar the oligarchs “with Putin’s brush”.

Perhaps it is time to realise that if your country becomes a haven for dodgy people like Berezovsky then dodgy things are likely to happen.

Séamus Martin is a former Irish Times Moscow correspondent

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/unlikely-that-vladimir-putin-behind-skripal-poisoning-1.3425736


Not so cut and dried when people who know what they are talking about speak up.

Irish Times wrote:For President Vladimir Putin to have launched such a vicious attack would have been counterproductive as it would jeopardise any spy swaps in the future.

Weak, weak. He doesn't care about spy swaps in this new Cold War. My money is on Putin.

Love the way you, a lawyer, are happy to make up your mind before the evidence is in.

The majority of the media and political class seems to have accepted the Conservative government’s position. But it looks like it’s much easier to synthesise Novichoks than May suggests. Most of what is publicly available about Novichoks comes from dissident Russian scientist Vil Mirzayanov. In Cassidy’s Run: The Secret Spy War Over Nerve Gas, author David Wise quotes Mirzayanov as saying:

Uglev [a man who Wise says “helped to perfect Novichok”] claims the binary form of the gas can be produced in a garage. He exaggerates a little, but it is basically true.

In fact, it appears that Russian scientists developed Novichoks partly so they could be easily manufactured. In Weapons of Mass Casualties and Terrorism Response Handbook, author Charles Stewart writes:

The Novichok agents are thought to be far more difficult to detect during manufacturing and far easier to manufacture covertly, because they can be made with common chemicals in relatively simple pesticide factories.

In short, it wouldn’t be too difficult for other states or non-state actors to produce Novichoks.

https://www.thecanary.co/global/2018/03/15/new-evidence-left-theresa-mays-russian-spy-story-tatters/

PMSL, and still we see Comrade stassi defend a human rights abuser in Putin, someone right wing. You cannot make it up can you



Well iff as claimed it was smuggled out, then why on earth did not Putin declare this is what had happened, when asked by the British Governemnt?

They basically laughed, because this is what Putin does. He is throwing his weight around and showing he can basically do as he pleases. Its the same when he invaded Georgia, annexed the Crimea and countless other abuses. To name just some. Its incredible how people are actually coming to defend someone that abuses the rights of homosexuals, imprisons anyone that criticizes him, including opposition politicians.

How far have some idiots truely fallen it seems