Signs that oil companies are starting to take climate threat seriously

With grand speeches, new climate strategies, the offloading of carbon intensive assets and even changes in executive pay structures, the last few weeks have provided some intriguing evidence that oil firms finally may be starting to take the climate threat seriously.

First came Chevron, which earlier this month admitted climate factors could pose significant liability and regulatory risks to its financial returns, confirming its fears to investors that climate-related lawsuits and tighter restrictions on carbon emissions could have a significant impact on its bottom line. In a filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Chevron admitted it could be at risk of "governmental investigations and, potentially, private litigation" from increased attention to climate risks, while stricter emissions legislation might render future oil extraction "economically infeasible."

"In the years ahead, companies in the energy industry, like Chevron, may be challenged by an increase in international and domestic regulation relating to greenhouse gas emissions," Chevron said.

The admissions prompted Greenpeace's senior climate adviser, Charlie Kronick, to cheer the firm's shift in position, from "barely acknowledging the danger of climate change to being the first oil major to explicitly warn investors about the material risk from potential climate lawsuits against the company."

"The combined effect of the Paris Agreement and the Exxon investigation seems to have brought home for Chevron the financial and legal implications of their denial," he added, in reference to the ongoing legal action against ExxonMobil over its alleged failure to inform investors about its early understanding of climate risks.

Chevron's stance offered evidence that for all the attempts by many oil executives to downplay the so-called carbon bubble hypothesis and its assertion that climate policies and clean technologies will leave many fossil fuel assets stranded, some of their colleagues are starting to take the risk very seriously. Even those who continue to reject the carbon bubble premise soon could find they have to engage with it more fully, given the international Financial Stability Board is consulting on proposals that would require firms to provide investors with much richer information on the climate-related risks they face.

The sense that a new trend is emerging was further reinforced last week when Shell released its annual reports containing details of how 10 percent of executive bonuses are linked to performance against the firm's climate targets, a move which coincided with the announcement it is selling $7.25 billion of investment in Canadian oil sands (although the latter move was billed as a debt reduction, rather than a climate-motivated decision).