UK confirmed as fastest growing economy in Western Europe

Official data this week will show that the UK economy grew 1.9pc in 2013, the strongest annual growth since 2007

Britain grew at the fastest rate since 2007 last year, official data are expected to confirm this week, cementing its position as the fastest growing economy in Western Europe.
Economists expect the UK to have grown by 0.7pc in the three months to December, following growth of 0.8pc in the third quarter.
This represents an annual expansion of 2.8pc and equates to overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2013 of 1.9pc – the strongest annual growth since 2007 - up from just 0.3pc in 2012.

Britain emerged as the fastest growing economy in Western Europe last year and Tuesday’s data are expected to confirm the UK grew four times faster than Germany, which expanded by 0.4pc in 2013.
Some economists believe fourth-quarter UK growth could match the 0.8pc seen in the previous three months, although others said a slightly lacklustre October performance by Britain’s dominant services sector suggested the economy saw a slowdown in the final three months of the year.

“Services output was a modest 0.3pc higher in October compared to the Q3 average and would have to post decent rises in November and December to equal Q3’s performance,” said Jonathan Loynes, an economist at Capital Economics.
Michael Saunders, chief UK economist at Citigroup, said: “Partial data so far show solid growth in industrial production but a modest gain in retail sales and little change in construction output.
“We suspect some of these monthly activity readings understate the economy’s momentum but, unless the services output data released at the same time are very strong, we suspect growth will fall a little short of the 0.8pc pace seen in Q3.”
While Britain’s rapid growth rate is expected to continue this year, economists have raised concerns that the recovery is over-reliant on consumer spending and unsustainable without a significant increase in real wages, investment and export growth.
This was also stressed yesterday by Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, who told a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the recovery remained fragile and suggested it was not yet strong enough to withstand an interest rate rise.
“As good as the numbers have been in the last three quarters in the United Kingdom, we’re talking about three-quarters of household-led growth, an economy that’s running 20pc below pre-crisis trends, that has substantial spare capacity, that has not yet rebalanced and that faces significant headwinds from its major trading partner from overall monetary conditions,” he said.
“Exceptional stimulus remains very relevant to the environment.”

UK growth of 1.9pc in 2013 would also be lower than the pre-crisis average of around 2.5pc and nowhere near the growth seen in 2007, when the economy grew by 3.4pc. The economy would also remain 1.3pc smaller than its pre-crisis peak in the first quarter of 2008. By contrast, Germany has already recovered from its GDP slump.

Last week, Mr Carney admitted that the Bank’s “forward guidance” policy on increasing interest rates would “evolve” at its next inflation report in February because unemployment had fallen far faster than expected toward the 7pc threshold set by the Bank.

Last August, Mr Carney pledged that the Bank would not even consider raising rates from their record low of 0.5pc until unemployment fell below the threshold. At the time, the jobless rate was 7.8pc but it has since tumbled to 7.1pc.

Mr Saunders said he expected the Bank to move away from “forward guidance” towards “fuzzy” guidance.
“We expect the Bank to shift to a more fuzzy approach, emphasising that there is no immediate need to hike rates, and when rates do rise, they are likely to rise only gradually,” he said.
“This will represent a move towards a neutral stance rather than restraint.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10597418/UK-confirmed-as-fastest-growing-economy-in-Western-Europe.html

They avoid these threads like the plague Didge.

I wonder why? :D 

Their crib sheets from Labour central no longer work.

 

Give it time Drinky, you will see some try to dampen this good news with deflection.


I have to say though this is excellent news.

UK Third Quarter GDP Growth Highest Since 2010

Three and a half years of stagnation, £198bn deeper in debt, working longer and harder for less!

See good news deflected, told you it would not take long Drinky, even the ardent labour supporters cannot welcome good news

Face it Labour supporters do not welcome it when Tories get it right, Tory supporters do not welcome it when Labour get it right and Liberals do not welcome it whoever gets it right because it is never them.

If I thought that this was good news then I would hang out the bunting but I don't. What Osborne has done was plunge the economy into a basket case and now that it's recovering to some extent the cap doffers want us to give him a pat on the back.
The real measure for how the economy is performing is to look at the UKs current account deficit which rocketed to its widest gap since 1989. That indicates that the recovery is broadly financed by consumer spending rather than by increased productivity or exports. That's bad news

Read this...

Figures on Friday nevertheless showed the government borrowed more in November than in the same month last year.

Britain has been one of the global economy's surprise success stories this year, turning itself from a laggard to one of the fastest-growing industrialised nations, with particularly strong jobs growth.

However, it is still catching up with rather than outperforming other big economies which suffered similar sharp falls in output due to the 2008 financial crisis.

Britain's economy remains 2.0 percent smaller than before the crisis although this itself is an upward revision from the 2.5 percent shortfall reported before Friday's data.

The Bank of England and economists have also been concerned that the recovery is unbalanced in a way that could ultimately prove unsustainable - with too great a reliance on household consumption and insufficient exports and business investment.

Friday's data showed business investment starting to improve but painted a bleak picture on trade.

A reality check...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/20/uk-britain-economy-idUKBRE9BJ0CT20131220

Except that France your model is a real basket case.

Are you on drugs Bru. You are certainly not sane.

Clarkson wrote:Except that France your model is a real basket case.

Are you on drugs Bru. You are certainly not sane.

Your grasp on the state of the economy is obviously read to you by Central Office.

Show me what the the UK current account trade deficit stands at and has it gone up or down?

The link I gave you should be of some help - use it.

But Irn is the uk economy growing faster than any other EU state?

Your argument is deflecting from this good news, so if you wish to start a thread on deficit, please do so, this is about the economy growing

PhilDidge wrote:But Irn is the uk economy growing faster than any other EU state?

Your argument is deflecting from this good news, so if you wish to start a thread on deficit, please do so, this is about the economy growing

You really need to read the link to understand that it is recovering from the basket case that Osborne plunged it into. It is still trying to catch up with other economies. Read it Didge.
There is no deflection.

It is and the gap between us and the Socialist French is growing daily. Their GDP is greater than ours but we are closing the gap very quickly.

The over spending on the state and the over taxation of business has crushed enterprise. Your constant denials fool only the gormless Br.

You are persistent I'll give you that. Sadly you are persistent at disseminating misinformation or dare I say outright lies on occasion.

Answer these simple questions is France going forward or backwards.

Is Britain going forward or backwards.

Bet you won't :D 

Irn Bru wrote:

PhilDidge wrote:But Irn is the uk economy growing faster than any other EU state?

Your argument is deflecting from this good news, so if you wish to start a thread on deficit, please do so, this is about the economy growing

You really need to read the link to understand that it is recovering from the basket case that Osborne plunged it into. It is still trying to catch up with other economies. Read it Didge.
There is no deflection.

I really don't think we can say that the economy was so good, then Osbourne made it terrible, can we?

I think you'll find that economies take a few years to turn one way or the other - therefore, everybody, and I mean everybody knows that it was going downhill because of policies pre-2010 and only now will policies post 2011 be kicking in.

When I say everybody, I mean it, even you Iron. I know you know it but I commend you for trying.