Predicting the Top 10 tech developments for 2017

Predicting the Top 10 tech developments for 2017

Mobile app installs will continue to decline, AI-based bots will move to mainstream and Amazon’s Echo will become the critical component in smart homes.

Predicting the future is more art than science, yet it’s always an interesting exercise to engage in as a new year comes upon us. Now that we’ve left a difficult though significant year in the technology business — and as tech vendors and media gather in Las Vegas for the annual CES showcase — here are my predictions for the Top 10 tech developments of 2017.

Prediction 1: Device categories start to disappear

One of the key metrics for the relative health of the tech industry has always been the measurement of unit shipments and/or revenues for various categories of hardware-based tech devices. From PCs, tablets and smartphones, through smartwatches, smart TVs and head-mounted displays, there has been a decades-long obsession with counting the numbers and drawing conclusions from how the results end up. The problem is, the lines between these categories have been getting murkier and more difficult to distinguish for years, making what once seemed like well-defined groupings become increasingly arbitrary.

Prediction 2: VR/AR hardware surpasses wearables

Though it’s still early days for head-mounted virtual reality and augmented reality products, the interest and excitement about these types of devices is palpable. Yes, the technologies need to improve, prices need to decrease and the range of software options needs to widen, but people who have had the opportunity to spend some time with a quality system from the likes of HTC, Oculus or Sony are nearly universally convinced that they’ve witnessed and partaken in the future. From kids playing games to older adults exploring the globe, the range of experiences is growing, and the level of interest is starting to bubble up past enthusiasts into the mainstream.

Prediction 3: Mobile app installs will decline as tech services grow

The incredible growth-enabler and platform-driver that mobile applications have proven to be over most of the last decade makes it hard to imagine a time when they won’t be that relevant, but I believe 2017 will mark the beginning of that unfathomable era. The reasons are many: Worldwide smartphone growth has stalled, app stores have become bloated and difficult to navigate and, most importantly, the general excitement level about mobile applications has dropped to nearly zero. Study after study has shown that the vast majority of apps that get downloaded rarely if ever get used, and most people consistently rely on a tiny handful of apps.

Prediction 4: Autonomous driving slows, but assisted driving soars

There’s no question that autonomous driving is going to be a critical trend for tech industry and automotive players in 2017, but as the reality of the technical, regulatory and standards-based challenges of creating truly autonomous cars becomes more obvious in the new year, there’s also no question that timelines for these kinds of automobiles will be extended in 2017. Already, some of the early predictions for the end of the decade or 2020 have been moved into 2021, and I predict we’ll see several more of these delays in the new year.

Prediction 5: Smart home products consolidate

Most of the early discussions around the smart home market has been for standalone products, designed to do a specific function and meant to be installed by the homeowner or tenant. The Nest thermostat, August smart lock and various security camera systems are classic examples of this. Individually, many of these products work just fine, but as interested consumers start to piece together different elements into a more complete smart home system, problems quickly become apparent. The bewildering array of different technical standards, platforms, connectivity requirements and more often turn what should be a fun, productive experience into a nightmare. Unfortunately, the issue shows few signs of getting better for most people (though Prediction 6 offers one potential solution.)

Prediction 6: Amazon Echo becomes the de facto gateway for smart homes

As mentioned in Prediction 5, one of the biggest challenges facing the smart home market is the incredibly confusing set of different standards, platforms and protocols that need to be dealt with in order to make multiple smart home products work together. Since it’s extremely unlikely that any of these battles will be resolved by companies giving up on their own efforts and working with others (as logical and user-friendly as that would be), the only realistic scenario is if one device becomes a de facto standard.

Prediction 7: Large-scale IoT projects slow, but small projects explode

The Internet of Things is all the buzz in large businesses today, with lots of companies spending a great deal of time and money to try to cash in on the hot new trend. As a number of companies have started to discover, however, the reality of IoT isn’t nearly as glamorous as the hype. Not only do many IoT projects require bringing together disparate parts of an organization that don’t always like — or trust — each other (notably, IT and operations), but measuring the “success” of these projects can be even harder than the project itself.

Prediction 8: AI-based bots move to the mainstream

It’s certainly easy to predict that artificial intelligence and deep learning will have a major impact on the tech market in 2017, but it’s not necessarily easy to know exactly where the biggest benefits from these technologies will occur. The clear early leaders are applications involving image recognition and processing (often called machine vision), which includes everything from populating names onto photos posted to social media, to assisted- and autonomous-driving features in connected cars.

Prediction 9: Non-gaming applications for AR and VR grow faster than gaming

Though much of the early attention in the AR/VR market has rightfully been focused on gaming, one of the main reasons I expect to see a healthy AR/VR hardware environment in the new year is because of the non-gaming applications I believe will be released in 2017. The Google Earth experience for the HTC Vive gave us an early inkling of the possibilities, but it’s clear that educational, training, travel and experiential applications for these devices offer potential for widespread appeal beyond the strong, but still limited, hardcore gaming market.

Prediction 10: Tech firms place more emphasis on non-tech fields

While many in the tech industry have great trepidation about working under a Trump administration for the next several years, the incoming president’s impact could lead to some surprisingly different means of thinking and focus in the tech industry. Most importantly, if the early chatter about improvements to infrastructure and enhancements to average citizens’ day-to-day lives come to pass, I predict that we will see more tech companies making focused efforts on applying their technologies to non-tech fields, including agriculture, fishing, construction, manufacturing, and many more.

More details on each prediction: http://www.recode.net/2017/1/3/14154874/2017-predictions-top-10-technology-mobile-ai-smart-home