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Paul Ryan worries GOP is poised to lose both chambers of Congress

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Post by Ben Reilly Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:32 pm

Speaker Paul Ryan told top donors on Wednesday evening that he’s growing concerned about whether House Republicans will be able to weather the political storm this November — and suggested the outcome for his party could be dire.

During a conference call, Ryan said he believed that House Republicans had taken a serious hit amid Donald Trump’s freefall following release of the now-infamous "Access Hollywood" video, according to a person who was on the call. Ryan noted that Republicans lost more than 20 seats in 2008, when John McCain lost to Barack Obama by seven percentage points. By comparison, Ryan pointed out grimly, Trump is trailing by around 10 percent nationally.

"Speaker Ryan holds routine calls with top supporters, top grassroots organizers, and many others. This is an opportunity to discuss our efforts to win in November," said Zack Roday, a Ryan spokesman.

Ryan's comments came as new stories were breaking in the New York Times, Palm Beach Post and Rolling Stone alleging that Trump improperly touched four women in separate incidents going back decades. The Trump campaign denied the allegations and has threatened to sue at least one of the publications, yet the controversy over Trump's sexual interactions with women — and his vulgar comments about them — has dominated the presidential race for the last five days, led to a collapse in his poll numbers, and threatens to sweep away the House and Senate GOP majorities.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/paul-ryan-donald-trump-house-republicans-229716

I hope it happens. My only wish is that I could personally kick each departing Republican lawmaker in the crotch as they file out of the Capitol Building.
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Post by eddie Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:23 pm

Trump has to own what he's said. You have to be very careful about what you have said in your past when running for president.
Looks like no one told him that.
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Post by Original Quill Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:58 pm

eddie wrote:Trump has to own what he's said. You have to be very careful about what you have said in your past when running for president.
Looks like no one told him that.

The spoiled rich kid always gets bad advice.

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Post by The Devil, You Know Fri Oct 14, 2016 1:35 pm

Original Quill wrote:
eddie wrote:Trump has to own what he's said. You have to be very careful about what you have said in your past when running for president.
Looks like no one told him that.

The spoiled rich kid always gets bad advice.
yes look at the kennedys
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Post by 'Wolfie Fri Oct 14, 2016 2:53 pm

Exclamation

I'M ONLY surprised that the Repub's have managed to maintain their majorities in both Congress and the Senate for so long...

Considering the amount of damage that the GOP has managed to inflict over the last couple of decades..         Arrow
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Post by Original Quill Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:14 pm

The Devil, You Know wrote:
Original Quill wrote:

The spoiled rich kid always gets bad advice.
yes look at the kennedys

Agreed. Gd case in point.

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Post by Original Quill Fri Oct 14, 2016 4:33 pm

WhoseYourWolfie wrote:Exclamation

I'M ONLY surprised that the Repub's have managed to maintain their majorities in both Congress and the Senate for so long...

Considering the amount of damage that the GOP has managed to inflict over the last couple of decades..         Arrow

The reason why is an old Supreme Court case named Baker v. Carr.  It allowed reapportionment of the state legislatures and the House of Representatives according to population figures. 

This aided the party in power at the time the zero year--in this case 2010--comes around.  Not only do you have the new population figures, but you get to draw the lines in what is called redistricting.  For the party in power, this means gerrymandering big time.

The US government conducts a general population census every ten years, in the first year of the decade. In 2010 the Republicans barely took the House of Representatives, and they went to work assuring that minorities, Hispanics and Democrats generally were boxed in tightly to given districts, leaving the remaining districts all Republican (you know how it works).  

What do you see?  Republicans controlling the House of Representative, which is subject to gerrymandering, but not the Senate. Democrats are by far the more popular party, it's just difficult to get them to vote.  But they are generally enthused when a president is up, so we see high Dem turn-out in those years, and we have a Democratic president and a lean a Dem Senate.  Again, the Senate is not gerrymandered, and so we see the popular will coming through: on a presidential cycle year, when Democrats are prone to vote, the Senate tends over to the Democrats.  In a non-presidential year, when the Republicans outmatch the Dems, the Senate goes to the Repubs.

In years gone past, we have seen less swings and more stability in the Senate and Representative Houses.  But Republicans have gone squirrely since the Court allowed rich white men to buy electoral successes.  Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 558 U.S. 310 (2010).  Now, with money controlling, we see wild swings every time some rich white man opens his pocketbook.

We'll need to wait until 2020, and then make sure we are in power.

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