Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

by Ben Reilly Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:18 pm

I've been a bit worried about the first debate tomorrow night. While I initially believed that in a sane, rational world, debates should be won by sane, rational people, the truth is that we don't really live in a sane, rational world, and Donald Trump is going to try to bully, bluster and charm his way through these debates.

But:

The presidential debates are generally considered the last big opportunity to move voters before the election. They offer rare moments for Americans to do some head-to-head comparison shopping between two candidates on the same stage discussing the issues.

And yet, according to the numbers, the debates have done little to change the fundamental structure of recent presidential races. Looking at pre-debate NBC News/Wall Street Journal presidential polls and the final election results since 1992, there is only one campaign where the debate may have made a serious difference — 2000.

In every other case, the candidate that led going into the debates wound up winning on Election Day.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-presidential-debates/do-presidential-debates-impact-election-outcomes-n653801

Counting the fact that Gore won the popular vote in 2000, the NBC News/Washington Post poll has correctly predicted the winner of the past six presidential elections' popular vote.

So, what's the latest poll say?

Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes NA-CL665_POLL_16U_20160921165111

Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes NA-CL665_POLL_16U_20160921165111

by eddie Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:05 pm

Let's be honest, once someone has made up their mind that they hate Clinton/Trump then they're not going to change their mind because of a debate.
I suppose some floaters could be swayed. How many are there approximately?

by Andy Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:08 pm

Clinton will out Trump as the proven liar he is. She will be armed with facts, figures and hard evidence.
Trump will bluster. Is what he does. Is all he does.
Who would vote for a man named after a fart?
Tom and Stomee/major.
What is the difference between Trump and a bucket of dog shit?
A. The bucket.

by eddie Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:10 pm

I don't think for one moment that she isn't a liar too.
I don't like either of them.

by Andy Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:12 pm

eddie wrote:I don't think for one moment that she isn't a liar too.
I don't like either of them.

She is the lesser of 2 evils.
At least she isnt insane.

by eddie Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:13 pm

Handy Andy wrote:
eddie wrote:I don't think for one moment that she isn't a liar too.
I don't like either of them.

She is the lesser of 2 evils.
At least she isnt insane.

I don't think either of them are insane but I do think both of them are really poor choices for the position of President.

by Andy Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:20 pm

Secret Trump voters reverse their support: 'He seems to be insane'

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/12/secret-donald-trump-supporters-change-vote-election?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

by eddie Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:24 pm

Obama's put downs of Trump

by Ben Reilly Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:28 pm

eddie wrote:Let's be honest, once someone has made up their mind that they hate Clinton/Trump then they're not going to change their mind because of a debate.
I suppose some floaters could be swayed. How many are there approximately?

Not as many as there used to be -- you're right, the country has become more polarized. It's hard to imagine anyone winning Reagan-esque margins these days.

by Andy Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:45 pm

I still hold out hope that there is a lone sniper on the hill with Trump in his sights.
Might be employed by a dark Government Agency, but hell, the world would be a safer and better place with Trump's brains splattered over the pavement/ boardwalk.

by eddie Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:50 pm

Will you have an alibi HA....?

by Andy Sun Sep 25, 2016 5:53 pm

Yup. I'm a lousy shot.

by Original Quill Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:11 pm

What changes minds is not the debate, but the press commentary after the debates. The press sort and digest the points made in the debates, and then the people get get to sift through all the stock and select what they like...sometimes re-evaluating.

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Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes

Re: Clinton supporters, take courage -- debates rarely influence election outcomes