George Osborne's brutal spending cuts could plunge Britain into recession, warn City experts

City analysts VP Research have issued doom-laden warning about future of country's economy if Chancellor pushes ahead with his plans

George Osborne’s next round of brutal spending cuts could plunge Britain into recession, City experts warned.

A top financial research firm said the Chancellor has been lulled into a “false sense of security” about the “vulnerable” state of the economy.

“The UK’s economy is increasingly beginning to resemble how it looked prior to the financial crisis,” a briefing paper by City analysts Variant Perception stated.

“Austerity threatens to put a light under the UK’s structural vulnerabilities.

“This could lead to another recession, or another financial crisis”.

VP Research is a team of ex-City traders and economists who study financial data to predict the future of financial markets.

Their doom-laden warning was circulated among top hedge funds and financiers.

And it delivered a withering verdict on Mr Osborne’s much-vaunted economic recovery .

“Growth has been lacklustre compared to other developed countries,” it warned.

“Countries that have not faced spending cuts have tended to perform better than the UK.”

And it added: “There are signs growth is fizzling out again.”

Mr Osborne’s claim of a booming economy was undermined in April by miserable 0.3% growth figures for the first three months of 2015.

But the Chancellor is still preparing to take his axe to public spending yet again, with tens of billions of pounds to be lopped off Whitehall budgets and welfare.

“Current projected spending cuts will take public spending to virtually its lowest as a percentage of GDP since the war,” the research firm warned.

“Given the increasingly precarious and imbalanced nature of the UK economy, the scale of the cuts proposed could push the UK back into recession."

The experts said the Tory pledge of an EU referendum adds further “risk” to the UK outlook.

And they warned “wage stagnation” over the past five years mean household debt levels are still far too high.

“Many of the bad old habits from before the crisis are evident again,” the paper stated.

“Consumer credit and credit card debt are growing quickly. The UK has not yet kicked its addiction to credit.”

The paper was dismissive of Mr Osborne’s plan to eventually run a budget surplus and warns this too could damage the economy.

“The Chancellor’s plan for budget surpluses to be run in ‘normal times’ is misguided,” it stated.

“There is some evidence.... surpluses are followed by weaker or even negative growth.”

And it slammed his failure to bring in the reforms needed after the 2008 crash.

“Structural vulnerabilities in the UK have not been addressed, and ate getting worse,” it said.

The full research is published on the analysts' blog. ( http://blog.variantperception.com/2015/06/24/a-false-sense-of-security-in-the-uk/ )

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/george-osbornes-brutal-spending-cuts-5942954


Bloody obvious to anyone who knows anything about economics, but not Osborne (although he wouldn't care, it's a political reason he's doing it, not economic) who had a 2nd in History, not the best grounding.

Its never been out of recession

If there is a just God, Gideo, call me Dave and IDS will be struck down with the plague and left paralysed, brain damaged and bankrupt.

Handy Andy wrote:If there is a just God, Gideo, call me Dave and IDS will be struck down with the plague and left paralysed,  brain damaged and bankrupt.

there isnt...

or at least not in most major religions

dontcha know...god is a conservative.....

Impact of tax and benefit reforms between Jan 2010 and April 2019 (incl. universal credit from IFS

http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/7855

Budget 2015: Squeeze to hit 13m families, says IFS

Thirteen million UK families will lose £260 a year on average because of the Budget's tax and benefits changes, says the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

Tax credit changes could hit three million families, which are likely to lose an average of £1,000, it said.

Even taking into account higher wages, people receiving tax credits would be "significantly worse off," said Paul Johnson, director of the IFS.

The chancellor said most workers would be better off under Budget changes.

The biggest impact on families will come from the freeze in working-age benefits and the changes to tax credits, said Mr Johnson.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33463864

The Chancellor said! Yep we know what he said, we know how he lies!!!!

Part of that budget is dodgy for us. I won't say on here but it's got me worried

I know what you mean. OH is still working although should have retired in Feb.

Let's get the 13 million affected onto the streets.  Join The People's Assembly against Austerity!

http://www.thepeoplesassembly.org.uk/

Yawn... you cannot keep spending more than you Are getting in... the article in the op criticises consumer debt being too high.



How can our economy prosper if debt is sucking the life out of it all!?

And the economy won't prosper if 13 million people no longer have any spare cash to buy luxury items, or have meals out.

MEALS OUT, that's a distant memory for my Wife and I.

We should not be paying people benefits to buy luxury items or have meals out... something not lefties fail to realise...

Tommy Monk wrote:Yawn... you cannot keep spending more than you Are getting in... the article in the op criticises consumer debt being too high.



How can our economy prosper if debt is sucking the life out of it all!?

Sometimes things happen in life, that require a sudden and unexpected financial lay-out; funerals, washing machine breaking, sickness if you're unemployed, roof leaking, some major payout for one of the children....the list is endless and out of people's hands in those instances.

Why would you deny them help? Would you say "Oh they're spending more than they're getting!" ?

Life isn't a straight line Tommy, it has ups and downs.
Come on, you're not dumb!

eddie wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:Yawn... you cannot keep spending more than you Are getting in... the article in the op criticises consumer debt being too high.



How can our economy prosper if debt is sucking the life out of it all!?

Sometimes things happen in life, that require a sudden and unexpected financial lay-out; funerals, washing machine breaking, sickness if you're unemployed, roof leaking, some major payout for one of the children....the list is endless and out of people's hands in those instances.

Why would you deny them help? Would you say  "Oh they're spending more than they're getting!" ?

Life isn't a straight line Tommy, it has ups and downs.
Come on, you're not dumb!

PFFFFT.... and other such indications of doubt and derision

You may not like his opinions but he isn't stupid.

Sometimes money is needed for emergencies... that is when a credit card comes in handy, or an overdraft etc.


The article was saying that personal debt is too high... and I'll bet it isn't because everyone has just had an emergency...