'Hard Brexit' could cost up to £66bn and slash UK GDP by almost 10%, Treasury warns

First topic message reminder :

'The horrific damage of a hard Brexit is clear'

Britain will lose up to £66 billion a year if it pursues the so-called "hard Brexit" option of leaving the single market and EU customs union, the Treasury has warned.
Government figures suggest the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) could fall by as much as 9.5 per cent if it leaves the EU and reverts to World Trade Organisation rules.
The impact of such a slump would be devastating on the public sector, according to Treasury documents leaked to The Times. 
The draft Cabinet committee paper is based on a controversial study published by George Osborne in April during the referendum campaign. But despite the vilification it received then, the Treasury says it still stands by the figures now.

It comes as David Davis, the Brexit minister, continued to signal his preference for a hard Brexit even as the value of the pound dropped below the euro in some currency exchanges.
Though EU leaders have suggested Britain will not be allowed to leave the bloc with a better deal than it had as a member, Mr Davis said: "It is not necessary to be a member of the single market, to trade incredibly successfully in the single market."
The leaked government document says: "The Treasury estimates that UK GDP would be between 5.4 per cent and 9.5 per cent of GDP lower after 15 years if we left the EU with no successor arrangement, with a central estimate of 7.5 per cent."

It adds: "The net impact on public sector receipts - assuming no contributions to the EU and current receipts from the EU are replicated in full - would be a loss of between £38 billion and £66 billion per year after 15 years, driven by the smaller size of the economy."
Brexit backers who have seen the documents told the newspaper the figures were unrealistic and claimed there was a push to "make leaving the single market look bad".

But prominent Remain campaigners pushing for a "soft" Brexit that would keep Britain in the single market said the documents showed the "horrific damage" of leaving the trading bloc.
Conservative former minister Anna Soubry, a supporter of the Open Britain campaign, said: "The horrific damage of a hard Brexit is clear. Less tax revenue means less to invest in schools and hospitals, lower trade and investment means businesses and jobs at risk.

"This danger is precisely why Parliament must be involved in the principles to guide the Brexit negotiations.
"Britain will leave the EU, but we must do so in a way the protects our prosperity and reduces risk. The Government should now make clear the 'WTO option' isn't on the table."
Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron said the leaked documents showed quitting the single market would wreck the economy.
"This is yet more proof that hard Brexit would be an act of sheer economic vandalism," he said.
"The Liberal Democrats will stand up for Britain's membership of the single market.
"We cannot stand by while this reckless, divisive and uncaring Conservative Government wrecks the UK economy."


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-hard-brexit-uk-economy-66bn-cost-leaving-eu-a7354996.html




Hold on tight, it's not just going to be a bumpy ride, you are going to be dropped into chasms.

Ben Reilly wrote:If only there had been some warning about the possible consequences!

short term pain, long term gain, most people understood that

Handy Andy wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:

Many of the trades in currency are run by computers using algorithms...


They monitor news media story's and react to things they see...


The left wing media is pumping out so much negative press of brexit doom and gloom... that these computer trading systems are reacting to it and doing trades on the basis of the bullshit spewed out... not on reality!!!


Thus... the moaning fear mongering by the leftie pro eu idiots is actually causing the pound losing its (theoretical) value against other currencies...

Like Murdoch's News International publications, and Paul Dacre's Daily Fail.

or the tax avoiding Grauniad

Ben Reilly wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:

Many of the trades in currency are run by computers using algorithms...


They monitor news media story's and react to things they see...


The left wing media is pumping out so much negative press of brexit doom and gloom... that these computer trading systems are reacting to it and doing trades on the basis of the bullshit spewed out... not on reality!!!


Thus... the moaning fear mongering by the leftie pro eu idiots is actually causing the pound losing its (theoretical) value against other currencies...

Are you actually saying that trading algos are capable of reading and interpreting news articles, and making buy/sell decisions on the basis of them???

its what they are for

Ben Reilly wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:


Yes... them monitor news feeds and react to them... look it up if you think I'm lying...

Okay, you're not lying but you're really exaggerating what's going on. Certain articles about company news are accompanied by code that trading algos can read. But they're not reading (and cannot interpret) articles that suggest where the markets are heading or speculate on how government actions might affect markets. There is interest in developing algos that can do this, but at the moment it's not possible.

"There is a real interest in moving the process of interpreting news from the humans to the machines," says Kirsti Suutari, global business manager of algorithmic trading at Reuters.

playing with semantics again I see when shown to be wrong

sassy wrote:Nope, new report, based on facts since brexit.

same recycled report from the same department luv

The Devil, You Know wrote:

sassy wrote:I'm afraid you are going to find out that it's going to make 'our people's' lives absolute hell.   The chasm is opening up.   The £ is worth less than the Euro today.

no it's not, it's worth 1.11. it went lower during labours 13 years, cant remember brexit happening then.
People at airports are being ripped off.

it hit 1.02 in december 2008

No it didn't:


Monthly Average US Dollar per 1 British Pound Monthly average
averageYear

2008

• Jan 1.969031 – 31 days
  
• Feb 1.962911 – 29 days
  
• Mar 2.000969 – 31 days
  
• Apr 1.982679 – 30 days
  
• May 1.965804 – 31 days
  
• Jun 1.967950 – 30 days
  
• Jul 1.988913 – 31 days
  
• Aug 1.884860 – 31 days
  
• Sep 1.799261 – 30 days
  
• Oct 1.688611 – 31 days
  
• Nov 1.533000 – 30 days
  
• Dec 1.483053 – 31 days
  

http://www.x-rates.com/average/?from=GBP&to=USD&amount=1&year=2008

sassy wrote:

The Devil, You Know wrote:
no it's not, it's worth 1.11. it went lower during labours 13 years, cant remember brexit happening then.
People at airports are being ripped off.

it hit 1.02 in december 2008

No it didn't:


Monthly Average US Dollar per 1 British Pound Monthly average
averageYear

2008

• Jan 1.969031 – 31 days
  
• Feb 1.962911 – 29 days
  
• Mar 2.000969 – 31 days
  
• Apr 1.982679 – 30 days
  
• May 1.965804 – 31 days
  
• Jun 1.967950 – 30 days
  
• Jul 1.988913 – 31 days
  
• Aug 1.884860 – 31 days
  
• Sep 1.799261 – 30 days
  
• Oct 1.688611 – 31 days
  
• Nov 1.533000 – 30 days
  
• Dec 1.483053 – 31 days
  

http://www.x-rates.com/average/?from=GBP&to=USD&amount=1&year=2008

you do understand the dollar is not the euro, although you are a labour supporters so economics will never be your strong point luv

Monthly Average Euro per 1 British Pound Monthly average
averageYear 2008

• an 1.338790 – 31 days
  
• Feb 1.331852 – 29 days
  
• Mar 1.289849 – 31 days
  
• Apr 1.259161 – 30 days
  
• May 1.263788 – 31 days
  
• Jun 1.263672 – 30 days
  
• Jul 1.261663 – 31 days
  
• Aug 1.260958 – 31 days
  
• Sep 1.253934 – 30 days
  
• Oct 1.270997 – 31 days
  
• Nov 1.205430 – 30 days
  
• Dec 1.098349 – 31 days
  

just to put yo in the picture luv



http://www.pounds2euro.com/Charts just set the dates to december 2009

sassy wrote:

Monthly Average Euro per 1 British Pound Monthly average
averageYear 2008

• an 1.338790 – 31 days
  
• Feb 1.331852 – 29 days
  
• Mar 1.289849 – 31 days
  
• Apr 1.259161 – 30 days
  
• May 1.263788 – 31 days
  
• Jun 1.263672 – 30 days
  
• Jul 1.261663 – 31 days
  
• Aug 1.260958 – 31 days
  
• Sep 1.253934 – 30 days
  
• Oct 1.270997 – 31 days
  
• Nov 1.205430 – 30 days
  
• Dec 1.098349 – 31 days
  

you dont get averages either do you

sassy wrote:

The Devil, You Know wrote:
no it's not, it's worth 1.11. it went lower during labours 13 years, cant remember brexit happening then.
People at airports are being ripped off.

it hit 1.02 in december 2008

No it didn't:


Monthly Average US Dollar per 1 British Pound Monthly average
averageYear

2008

• Jan 1.969031 – 31 days
  
• Feb 1.962911 – 29 days
  
• Mar 2.000969 – 31 days
  
• Apr 1.982679 – 30 days
  
• May 1.965804 – 31 days
  
• Jun 1.967950 – 30 days
  
• Jul 1.988913 – 31 days
  
• Aug 1.884860 – 31 days
  
• Sep 1.799261 – 30 days
  
• Oct 1.688611 – 31 days
  
• Nov 1.533000 – 30 days
  
• Dec 1.483053 – 31 days
  

http://www.x-rates.com/average/?from=GBP&to=USD&amount=1&year=2008

ah yes I remember getting $2 to the pound back in the mid 2000's, I used to go to america for several months a year back then

see how in 12 months the rate dropped by 50 cents.