'Hard Brexit' could cost up to £66bn and slash UK GDP by almost 10%, Treasury warns

'The horrific damage of a hard Brexit is clear'

Britain will lose up to £66 billion a year if it pursues the so-called "hard Brexit" option of leaving the single market and EU customs union, the Treasury has warned.
Government figures suggest the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) could fall by as much as 9.5 per cent if it leaves the EU and reverts to World Trade Organisation rules.
The impact of such a slump would be devastating on the public sector, according to Treasury documents leaked to The Times. 
The draft Cabinet committee paper is based on a controversial study published by George Osborne in April during the referendum campaign. But despite the vilification it received then, the Treasury says it still stands by the figures now.

It comes as David Davis, the Brexit minister, continued to signal his preference for a hard Brexit even as the value of the pound dropped below the euro in some currency exchanges.
Though EU leaders have suggested Britain will not be allowed to leave the bloc with a better deal than it had as a member, Mr Davis said: "It is not necessary to be a member of the single market, to trade incredibly successfully in the single market."
The leaked government document says: "The Treasury estimates that UK GDP would be between 5.4 per cent and 9.5 per cent of GDP lower after 15 years if we left the EU with no successor arrangement, with a central estimate of 7.5 per cent."

It adds: "The net impact on public sector receipts - assuming no contributions to the EU and current receipts from the EU are replicated in full - would be a loss of between £38 billion and £66 billion per year after 15 years, driven by the smaller size of the economy."
Brexit backers who have seen the documents told the newspaper the figures were unrealistic and claimed there was a push to "make leaving the single market look bad".

But prominent Remain campaigners pushing for a "soft" Brexit that would keep Britain in the single market said the documents showed the "horrific damage" of leaving the trading bloc.
Conservative former minister Anna Soubry, a supporter of the Open Britain campaign, said: "The horrific damage of a hard Brexit is clear. Less tax revenue means less to invest in schools and hospitals, lower trade and investment means businesses and jobs at risk.

"This danger is precisely why Parliament must be involved in the principles to guide the Brexit negotiations.
"Britain will leave the EU, but we must do so in a way the protects our prosperity and reduces risk. The Government should now make clear the 'WTO option' isn't on the table."
Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron said the leaked documents showed quitting the single market would wreck the economy.
"This is yet more proof that hard Brexit would be an act of sheer economic vandalism," he said.
"The Liberal Democrats will stand up for Britain's membership of the single market.
"We cannot stand by while this reckless, divisive and uncaring Conservative Government wrecks the UK economy."


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-hard-brexit-uk-economy-66bn-cost-leaving-eu-a7354996.html




Hold on tight, it's not just going to be a bumpy ride, you are going to be dropped into chasms.

We will just have to stop giving OUR wealth away to othuz and making sure we get the best deal for our own people.

Foreign Aid is about £12 billion and brings in all kinds of business for the UK, that's why they do it.   So that's not going to help is it.   But then, I don't suppose logic is something you know much about

It all helps our own people.

I'm afraid you are going to find out that it's going to make 'our people's' lives absolute hell.   The chasm is opening up.   The £ is worth less than the Euro today.

sassy wrote:I'm afraid you are going to find out that it's going to make 'our people's' lives absolute hell.   The chasm is opening up.   The £ is worth less than the Euro today.

It's fell that's for sure.
The rate we are getting today is 108 euro's to the £.....at certain airports they are valuing the £ as less than the euro....moral, NEVER get you money changed at the airport....they always rip you off even when the pound is strong.

Then you had better grab it:

Less than one euro to the pound at many UK airports

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37609114

It's a far cry from this time last year....I'm sure we were getting almost 140.

sassy wrote:'The horrific damage of a hard Brexit is clear'

Would a soft brexit be preferable then?

Or a halfway compromise - a semi perhaps ??

Whatever!

The financial terrorists in big business are selling off sterling and buying up other currencies while betting on he pound losing value.


What we are doing by leaving the eu is bringing back control of our country to us, the electorate, and power to our national parliament.


It means we can stop paying so many of our farmers to produce nothing and get them to actually produce food do we don't have to import so much... it also means we can get back control of our territorial fishing waters and reinvigorate our fishing industry instead of having foreign boats fishing our waters and us buying/importing fish from them.


Trade with the eu will continue... the French will still sell us wine and cheese... the Germans will still sell us cars and the Spanish will still sell us oranges...


They will want to sell us this stuff tarrif free... and in return we will get tarrif free access to sell them stuff...


Don't you moaning Remoanians realise that your constant bleating and fear mongering is running down our country and causing some of the damage we are seeing...?


The pound is at an artificially low level and hugely undervalued at the moment... it will not stay like this because there are too many people who xan see a bargain and start buying it up!!!

You hope.

Jules wrote:

sassy wrote:'The horrific damage of a hard Brexit is clear'

Would a soft brexit be preferable then?

Or a halfway compromise - a semi perhaps ??

Whatever!

There is no such thing as hard or don't brexit...


It is either out of the EU or not.


We voted out.


Staying in the 'single market' means staying in the eu... it means continuing to pay into the eu... if means being subject to being run by eu with eu rules/laws still being supreme over British law/sovereignty... it means open borders...


We voted out of this!!!

"WHOOSH!!!!"
That's the sound of my joke sailing above your head.
I was just messing about Tommy. Don't mind me!

Ok...

Swings and roundabouts...the FTSE is sky high.

Jules wrote:

"WHOOSH!!!!"
That's the sound of my joke sailing above your head.
I was just messing about Tommy. Don't mind me!

Fear not, Jules. I caught it, and was still chuckling.

It appears petrol is about to go up by 5p a litre because of it.

OPEC and Russia have just said they are going to reduce production of oil... this will raise the oil price...


The pound is artificially low because of deliberate actions of some big players in the financial markets to drive it down...


Selling off sterling while betting on it going down in value...


Bit like what George soros did in the 1990s...

I think it was inevitable that things would be unsteady after we voted leave.
The Brexit vote will remain, all the moaning in the world wont make any difference, and I believe as a country long term we will be better off.

Syl wrote:I think it was inevitable that things would be unsteady after we voted leave.
The Brexit vote will remain, all the moaning in the world wont make any difference, and I believe as a country  long term we will be better off.

Who's moaning?

Original Quill wrote:

Jules wrote:

"WHOOSH!!!!"
That's the sound of my joke sailing above your head.
I was just messing about Tommy. Don't mind me!

Fear not, Jules.  I caught it, and was still chuckling.  

Yes I often make these so-called Concorde jokes, which fly straight over people's heads like a supersonic plane.

Where is your avatar, Quill?

Jules wrote:

Syl wrote:I think it was inevitable that things would be unsteady after we voted leave.
The Brexit vote will remain, all the moaning in the world wont make any difference, and I believe as a country  long term we will be better off.

Who's moaning?

Plenty have.....I include everyone who whinged for a 2nd vote plus the people who shouted all BREXIT voters were racists.

Syl wrote:

Jules wrote:

Who's moaning?

Plenty have.....I include everyone who whinged for a 2nd vote plus the people who shouted all BREXIT voters were racists.

OK. It's the word ''moaning'' that caught my eye.
See, people have always commented on the cost of living, and always will, and it's valid to do so.
You call it moaning, I call it commenting.
They don't need brexit, to comment about the cost of living, they would do so even if the referendum had never happened.

Jules wrote:

Syl wrote:

Plenty have.....I include everyone who whinged for a 2nd vote plus the people who shouted all BREXIT voters were racists.

OK. It's the word ''moaning'' that caught my eye.
See, people have always commented on the cost of living, and always will,  and it's valid to do so.
You call it moaning, I call it commenting.
They don't need brexit, to comment about the cost of living,  they would do so even if the referendum had never happened.

Yes, but since BREXIT everything has been blamed on that.....no doubt the next flu outbreak will be the fault of the out voters too.

Lol

If only there had been some warning about the possible consequences!

eddie wrote:

Okay, I'm going to take the word of the UK treasury over somebody who has an Alanis Morisette quote for her sig

notice how the hard remoanomainders TWIST the reports

ALL these reprorst carry the same conditional phrase "may" or "could"

in otherwords they dont know....

quill is the first to bemoan R/W rigidity of thinking and or lack of ability to "explore"

and here we have the left (in the main) being the ossified, fosilised scaredy cats....and losing control of their much vaunted ability to "think"

Ben Reilly wrote:

eddie wrote:

Okay, I'm going to take the word of the UK treasury over somebody who has an Alanis Morisette quote for her sig

Do you know, I have been waiting for that remark for the whole day. Must've been killing you.

eddie wrote:

Ben Reilly wrote:

eddie wrote:

Okay, I'm going to take the word of the UK treasury over somebody who has an Alanis Morisette quote for her sig

Do you know, I have been waiting for that remark for the whole day. Must've been killing you.

Have to give me credit for waiting for my moment!

mind it doesnt take much to make the left loose control of either their temper OR their bowels. the proud red flag would wilt in shame at most of todays "lefty luvvies"

Ben Reilly wrote:

eddie wrote:

Ben Reilly wrote:

eddie wrote:

Okay, I'm going to take the word of the UK treasury over somebody who has an Alanis Morisette quote for her sig

Do you know, I have been waiting for that remark for the whole day. Must've been killing you.

Have to give me credit for waiting for my moment!

Credit, but the sig stays until it bores me.

Many of the trades in currency are run by computers using algorithms...


They monitor news media story's and react to things they see...


The left wing media is pumping out so much negative press of brexit doom and gloom... that these computer trading systems are reacting to it and doing trades on the basis of the bullshit spewed out... not on reality!!!


Thus... the moaning fear mongering by the leftie pro eu idiots is actually causing the pound losing its (theoretical) value against other currencies...

Tommy Monk wrote:

Many of the trades in currency are run by computers using algorithms...


They monitor news media story's and react to things they see...


The left wing media is pumping out so much negative press of brexit doom and gloom... that these computer trading systems are reacting to it and doing trades on the basis of the bullshit spewed out... not on reality!!!


Thus... the moaning fear mongering by the leftie pro eu idiots is actually causing the pound losing its (theoretical) value against other currencies...

Like Murdoch's News International publications, and Paul Dacre's Daily Fail.

You know it's true what I say...


It is you leftie moaning pro eu idiots running down our country who are causing the problems!!!



The same idiots who want to renationalise the railways... but also want to stay under the eu and its laws that opened up the railways to private corporations, and that prevent this renationalising from ever happening!!!



That's why nobody takes you and your ilk seriously hand shandy!!!



You don't have a clue what you are talking about!!!

Tommy Monk wrote:

Many of the trades in currency are run by computers using algorithms...


They monitor news media story's and react to things they see...


The left wing media is pumping out so much negative press of brexit doom and gloom... that these computer trading systems are reacting to it and doing trades on the basis of the bullshit spewed out... not on reality!!!


Thus... the moaning fear mongering by the leftie pro eu idiots is actually causing the pound losing its (theoretical) value against other currencies...

Are you actually saying that trading algos are capable of reading and interpreting news articles, and making buy/sell decisions on the basis of them???

Ben Reilly wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:

Many of the trades in currency are run by computers using algorithms...


They monitor news media story's and react to things they see...


The left wing media is pumping out so much negative press of brexit doom and gloom... that these computer trading systems are reacting to it and doing trades on the basis of the bullshit spewed out... not on reality!!!


Thus... the moaning fear mongering by the leftie pro eu idiots is actually causing the pound losing its (theoretical) value against other currencies...

Are you actually saying that trading algos are capable of reading and interpreting news articles, and making buy/sell decisions on the basis of them???

Yes... them monitor news feeds and react to them... look it up if you think I'm lying...

Tommy Monk wrote:

Ben Reilly wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:

Many of the trades in currency are run by computers using algorithms...


They monitor news media story's and react to things they see...


The left wing media is pumping out so much negative press of brexit doom and gloom... that these computer trading systems are reacting to it and doing trades on the basis of the bullshit spewed out... not on reality!!!


Thus... the moaning fear mongering by the leftie pro eu idiots is actually causing the pound losing its (theoretical) value against other currencies...

Are you actually saying that trading algos are capable of reading and interpreting news articles, and making buy/sell decisions on the basis of them???

Yes... them monitor news feeds and react to them... look it up if you think I'm lying...

Okay, you're not lying but you're really exaggerating what's going on. Certain articles about company news are accompanied by code that trading algos can read. But they're not reading (and cannot interpret) articles that suggest where the markets are heading or speculate on how government actions might affect markets. There is interest in developing algos that can do this, but at the moment it's not possible.

"There is a real interest in moving the process of interpreting news from the humans to the machines," says Kirsti Suutari, global business manager of algorithmic trading at Reuters.

isn;t that the same report they tried to use during the referendum.It was wrong then and its wrong now

Nope, new report, based on facts since brexit.

sassy wrote:I'm afraid you are going to find out that it's going to make 'our people's' lives absolute hell.   The chasm is opening up.   The £ is worth less than the Euro today.

no it's not, it's worth 1.11. it went lower during labours 13 years, cant remember brexit happening then.
People at airports are being ripped off.

it hit 1.02 in december 2008

Ben Reilly wrote:

Tommy Monk wrote:


Yes... them monitor news feeds and react to them... look it up if you think I'm lying...

Okay, you're not lying but you're really exaggerating what's going on. Certain articles about company news are accompanied by code that trading algos can read. But they're not reading (and cannot interpret) articles that suggest where the markets are heading or speculate on how government actions might affect markets. There is interest in developing algos that can do this, but at the moment it's not possible.

"There is a real interest in moving the process of interpreting news from the humans to the machines," says Kirsti Suutari, global business manager of algorithmic trading at Reuters.

So you see again... I only speak the truth!!!

sassy wrote:Then you had better grab it:

Less than one euro to the pound at many UK airports

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37609114

yes airports luv, where it costs £2 for a bottle of milk.

Jules wrote:

sassy wrote:'The horrific damage of a hard Brexit is clear'

Would a soft brexit be preferable then?

Or a halfway compromise - a semi perhaps ??

Whatever!

there is no such thing, you either accept the will of the people or dont.
leaving the EU means leaving the single market. It does not mean we have to stop trading with the EU, it certainly wont mean they want to stop trading with us, there is a massive balance of trade in their favour.

Handy Andy wrote:You hope.

and you are hoping it will fail, so who's hope is better?

Syl wrote:Swings and roundabouts...the FTSE is sky high.

as is the ftse 250 which better reflects uk companies

sassy wrote:It appears petrol is about to go up by 5p a litre because of it.

odd because its gone up here as well, nothing to do with the arabs agreeing to cut production then luv?

Tommy Monk wrote:OPEC and Russia have just said they are going to reduce production of oil... this will raise the oil price...


The pound is artificially low because of deliberate actions of some big players in the financial markets to drive it down...


Selling off sterling while betting on it going down in value...


Bit like what George soros did in the 1990s...

was it buffet or soros who drove the pound down during black wednesday?

Syl wrote:

Jules wrote:

Who's moaning?

Plenty have.....I include everyone who whinged for a 2nd vote plus the people who shouted all BREXIT voters were racists.

If they could have bottled all the tears cwyed by the remainiacs over the last 3 months we could have greened the sahara