Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly

by Ben Reilly Fri Apr 03, 2015 3:43 am

Bush has been on an aggressive pace to stockpile funds for his candidacy and appears to have benefited from decisions by 2012 nominee Mitt Romney and 2012 vice-presidential nominee Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.) to stay out of the race. His 20 percent support level, hardly an indication of dominance, underscores potential challenges ahead. But 1 in 3 Republicans say they think Bush will be their party’s nominee.

The survey was taken in the days after Cruz became the first Republican to formally announce a bid for the nomination. The former Texas solicitor general, running unabashedly as the true conservative in the race, enjoys his greatest support among the most conservative Republicans. Walker, who began rising after a well-received speech in Iowa in January, enjoys about equal support among those who say they are somewhat conservative and those who say they are very conservative.

****

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead in the competition for her party’s presidential nomination. She has a 6-to-1 advantage over Vice President Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, neither of whom has announced plans to run. Those who have expressed interest — former senator James Webb of Virginia, former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley and Sen. Bernard Sanders (I-Vt.) — are in the low single digits.

Tested against four possible Republicans in a general election — Bush, Cruz, Walker and Rubio — Clinton holds double-digit leads in every case. Bush does marginally better than the others but trails by 53 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, while Cruz runs weakest at 54 percent to 37 percent.

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Clinton’s supporters are more passionate about their candidate than are Bush’s supporters. More than 8 in 10 Clinton supporters say they are enthusiastic, with more than 4 in 10 saying they are very enthusiastic. Among Bush supporters, while almost 7 in 10 say they are enthusiastic, just over 1 in 10 say they are very enthusiastic.

The Post-ABC poll was conducted March 26 to 29 among a random national sample of 1,003 adults interviewed by telephone, including 335 cellphone-only respondents. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; the error margin is 5.5 percentage points among both the samples of 444 Republicans and GOP-leaning independents and 446 Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-bush-now-tops-gop-field-clinton-runs-ahead-of-all-republicans/2015/04/01/518fc5fe-d891-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html

by Original Quill Fri Apr 03, 2015 7:22 pm

Haha...the only thing this poll shows is that none of them would be able to beat Clinton.

I do think that Republicans have positioned themselves out of ever again winning a national election.

by Ben Reilly Fri Apr 03, 2015 7:52 pm

Original Quill wrote:Haha...the only thing this poll shows is that none of them would be able to beat Clinton.

I do think that Republicans have positioned themselves out of ever again winning a national election.

Their biggest problem right now isn't even their incredible shrinking base of support; it's the fact that they continue to stubbornly refuse to even acknowledge that their base is shrinking. It's interesting to see this happen to such a power-hungry political party that once dreamed of a permanent majority, and hard to imagine that the conservative bloc's old tricks will continue to work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GBAsFwPglw

(Paul Weyrich, founder of the Heritage Foundation, ALEC, etc.)

by Original Quill Fri Apr 03, 2015 7:58 pm

Ben_Reilly wrote:
Original Quill wrote:Haha...the only thing this poll shows is that none of them would be able to beat Clinton.

I do think that Republicans have positioned themselves out of ever again winning a national election.

Their biggest problem right now isn't even their incredible shrinking base of support; it's the fact that they continue to stubbornly refuse to even acknowledge that their base is shrinking. It's interesting to see this happen to such a power-hungry political party that once dreamed of a permanent majority, and hard to imagine that the conservative bloc's old tricks will continue to work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GBAsFwPglw

(Paul Weyrich, founder of the Heritage Foundation, ALEC, etc.)

They are playing a numbers game, and this is what they get when they don't keep their eye on the ball. They gerrymandered their districts, looking of to the left, attempting to marginalized the left...blacks, Hispanics, younger voters, and the like. They left themselves vulnerable from the RW, and now they are having to answer to the evangelicals and the racists.

Grand strategy...not well thought out. That's why they are paralyzed in Congress...big majority, and not one piece of legislation coming out. Erm...what happened to this big war effort that McCain wanted?

I don't know how they are going to get out of it. They need a major overhaul. I don't think they will survive. That's why I have been posting those articles on inverse totalitarianism.

by Ben Reilly Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:39 pm

They'll stick around for another decade or so, slowly dwindling in size, losing more and more elections and losing more of their base to the radicals who probably figure if they can't win elections, they'll have some sort of glorious armed revolution Smile

Any successes they have will be based on economic turns that put incumbents out of favor and on turnout suppression. They've lost the mainstream and it's hard to see them even managing to energize their own base in the future (I mean, with who? Jeb Bush?).

They've traded on bigotry for 50 years now, and now that the mainstream is far less bigoted, it's become the liability that will doom the GOP -- an ironic end for the party that ended slavery.

by Original Quill Sat Apr 04, 2015 4:56 am

The problem is that they put all of their eggs in the local basket--mayors, state legislators, governors and Congress, having gerrymandered their districts. They call this retail politics, because it takes place at the distribution level. They focus on elections where their base has a majority, and in terms of Congress they reshaped their districts that way.

I guess by logic, we may call the politics of the Senate and of the President, wholesale politics...because they take place on a broader scale.

Now when they are dealing with retail races and the primary elections, they must say radical things so they won't be rejected by their far-RW base. Those things, repeated on the wholesale level, are rejected by the majority of voters of the general public. So, on the races where they will have to face the general (or wholesale) public, they will lose. Those races are the Senate and the Presidency.

What the Republicans have done is paint themselves into a corner. They can only win the local races and the Congressional seats. They never will be able to win a race among the general public. Either they espouse radical things or their RW base will reject them, and when they get to the level of the general public, those espousals kill them. They have painted themselves into the corner of retail politics only.

by Cass Sat Apr 04, 2015 5:33 pm

We were discussing this at dinner last night. Our general consensus was that Hillary will be the Dem and the party will pretty much clear the tables for her (we think she should get a male Hispanic VP partner) and that the GOP will come down to a tight race between Jeb and Marco Rubio, because let's face it The Bush Machine is very well run and funded.

by Original Quill Sat Apr 04, 2015 7:37 pm

But with the Bush legacy. I see trouble.

And Rubio is against his own kind by being against immigration.

All Republicans are suited for are local elections. The can't win any big issues, they are so out of touch with the general public.

by Cass Sun Apr 05, 2015 1:35 am

Original Quill wrote:But with the Bush legacy. I see trouble.

And Rubio is against his own kind by being against immigration.

All Republicans are suited for are local elections. The can't win any big issues, they are so out of touch with the general public.

for sure they are trouble.....we all know that......we were making guesses as to who would run against her.....it was an interesting group....4 Brits now with American nationality 4 Americans born, some repubs, some dems, 1 green, some religious some not, some former military. it was a great discussion and very civilised.....of course the good wine and food helped. none of us looking forward to the media circus.

well I would say that the last few elections for Senate, governor, Congress would say otherwise. Lots of dems got hammered. I think its going to be a very close very ugly election like 2012. 2008 was just ugly.

by Original Quill Sun Apr 05, 2015 4:59 am

Cass wrote:
Original Quill wrote:But with the Bush legacy. I see trouble.

And Rubio is against his own kind by being against immigration.

All Republicans are suited for are local elections. The can't win any big issues, they are so out of touch with the general public.

for sure they are trouble.....we all know that......we were making guesses as to who would run against her.....it was an interesting group....4 Brits now with American nationality 4 Americans born, some repubs, some dems, 1 green, some religious some not, some former military. it was a great discussion and very civilised.....of course the good wine and food helped. none of us looking forward to the media circus.

well I would say that the last few elections for Senate, governor, Congress would say otherwise. Lots of dems got hammered. I think its going to be a very close very ugly election like 2012. 2008 was just ugly.

I think it's because you are living in one of those states. Arizona is smallish, population-wise.

Keep an eye on Texas...this election or next, gonna see some big changes. Hispanic population is exploding.

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Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly

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Re: Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly

Re: Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly

Re: Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly

Re: Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly

Re: Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly

Re: Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly

Re: Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly

Re: Jeb Bush tops poll for Republican presidential nominee, still trails Hillary Clinton badly