The Case that Will Tell Us If the Supreme Court Justices Are Just Politicians in Robes

by Guest Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:16 pm

In a few months the U.S. Supreme Court will decide the fate of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. In recent weeks news reports about the case have focused mostly on the constitutional and legal issues and questions raised by the Supreme Court’s justices. The media have given very little consideration to the possibility that a ruling against the Affordable Care Act in King v. Burwell could deliver the most powerful blow to the Supreme Court’s reputation since the infamous 1857 decision, Dred Scott v. Sandford.
The Supreme Court came under severe public condemnation in 1857 for taking a partisan stand in what was essentially a political dispute. Related outcries will likely be heard in 2015 if justices appointed by Republican presidents appear to deliver a party-oriented judgment on Obamacare. Critics of the Dred Scott decision viewed the case not in isolation but as the latest in a long train of irritations concerning slavery. In a related way progressives are likely to view a ruling against Obamacare as yet another provocation by the Court’s conservative majority. The Dred Scott decision was enormously controversial because it had the potential to shake up American society. If the present-day Court rules against Obamacare, the consequences may also be momentous. A decision that rules out federal subsidies for insurance in many states could throw the nation’s health care system into chaos.

http://historynewsnetwork.org/article/158812

by Original Quill Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:23 pm

Which way the justices go may not be a determinant of political consciousness:

Obamacare Enrollment wrote: 8 million enrolled in the Marketplaces during 2014 open enrollment (Oct 2013 to April 2014).

11.7 million are estimated to have enrolled in the Marketplaces during 2015 open enrollment (Nov 2014 to Feb 2015). This includes 4.5 million who re-enrolled from 2014.

It’s estimated that 5.7 million young adults (aged 19-25) stayed on a parent’s plan until age 26. That is 2.3 million who stayed on their parents plan from 2010 to 2013 with an estimated 3.4 million gaining coverage from 2013 to 2015.

As of March 2015 a total of 16.4 have enrolled in a Marketplace plan or stayed on their parents plan.

10.8 million more enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP since Oct 2013. Not all who enrolled were ineligible before the ACA. Uninsured rates dropped lower in states that expanded Medicaid.

We don’t have enrollment numbers for employer coverage or enrollments outside of the Marketplace. So it’s hard to know exactly how many previously uninsured are covered in total.

We do know that adults at over 400% of the Federal Poverty Level saw little or no change in uninsured rate (it was already around 98%)

Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey data shows current first quarter of 2015 uninsured rates to be about 12%. It’s been floating around 13% since 2014 open enrollment. The drop in uninsured is impressive versus a 2013 high of about 20%, but less impressive versus a pre-ACA low of about 15%. This data is based on phone interviews, and while fairly accurate is not an exact tally of uninsured.

Before the ACA up to 47 million were uninsured.

About 87% of the 11.4 million are getting some form of cost assistance.

Initial enrollment estimates can be high as the enrollment numbers above don’t count those who pay their first month premium (only about 6.5 – 7 million actually paid their premium in 2014).

Initial enrollment estimates can be low as they don’t include special enrollment numbers. About a million people enrolled during special enrollment between March 31st – April 15th last year. Many more enrolled in special enrollment throughout the year – this helped balanced off those who dropped plans.

In 2014, 2.6 million young adults stayed on their parents’ plan. In 2015, more than 3 million did.

In 2014, about 8 million enrolled in Medicaid. In 2015, about 11 million did.

Millions more, who would otherwise not be insured, enrolled due to expanded coverage under the ACA and new requirements. This includes those enrolled under expanded employer coverage, and those who got covered outside of the Marketplace.

Consider that 4.5 million of 2015 enrollment were auto-enrollments.

Consider that the HHS goal of 9.1 million for 2015 was meant to be a modest goal that accounted for fluctuations due to special enrollment and people not paying their first month premium. On the other hand, CBO projections of 13 million (revised to 12 million in January 2015) look at average totals for the whole year, not just enrollments by the end of open enrollment.

Judge or politician, not that many want to incur the wrath of 16 1/2 million satisfied Americans.

The Case that Will Tell Us If the Supreme Court Justices Are Just Politicians in Robes Article-2524892-1A26367E00000578-928_306x423

by Guest Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:13 pm

I wondered where Kenneth Williams had got to........

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The Case that Will Tell Us If the Supreme Court Justices Are Just Politicians in Robes

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