Poll shows Clinton edging Trump -- in Texas

by Ben Reilly Wed Sep 07, 2016 5:40 am

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat in Texas, according to a new 50-state survey conducted by The Washington Post and the online polling concern, Survey Monkey.

The Post described the Texas outcome, based on a survey of more than 5,000 Texans, as the “most unexpected” finding in the poll, which was conducted of 74,000 registered voters nationally between Aug. 9 and Sept. 1.

The poll shows Clinton leading Trump in Texas by 1 point — 46 to 45 percent. In a four-way race, Clinton and Trump are tied at 40 percent each, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson has 11 percent, Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 3 percent and 6 percent are undecided. The poll had no margin of sampling error because it didn’t use random sampling.

Texas political scientists and pollsters counseled caution in reading the results, suggesting that it remains very unlikely that Texas will be in the Democratic column this November.

http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/washington-post-poll-clinton-and-trump-locked-in-d/nsR6r/

They seem to be missing part of the story, in that THIS NEVER FUCKING HAPPENS.

This is the Washington Post's election forecast map as of today:

Poll shows Clinton edging Trump -- in Texas Purpletexasmap_zpsfvy8vn3p

Poll shows Clinton edging Trump -- in Texas Purpletexasmap_zpsfvy8vn3p

I don't think Texas has ever been shaded purple to indicate that it's a competitive state for Democrats.

by Original Quill Wed Sep 07, 2016 5:37 pm

Given the laws Texas instituted suppressing the vote of women (have to show up with documents without married name), I would suspect that there is a secret, or unnoticed current afoot there.

As I have said in the past, you can't gerrymander gender.

by Ben Reilly Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:16 pm

Original Quill wrote:Given the laws Texas instituted suppressing the vote of women (have to show up with documents without married name), I would suspect that there is a secret, or unnoticed current afoot there.

As I have said in the past, you can't gerrymander gender.

I think the GOP stranglehold on Texas is one of the most important overlooked issues in the nation. After all, from the standpoint of the progressive agenda, turning Texas into a Democratic state would destroy the Republican Party.

You look at our demographics and there's no reason it shouldn't happen:

* The state is only 45 percent non-Hispanic white

* Nearly 30 percent of the state speaks Spanish

* Texas is tied with California for number of most major cities, and most of the population is urban

* The median age is 33.6

* Texas has more women than men (by about 200,000)

If not for Republican trickery (gerrymandering, voter ID laws, intimidation and downright corruption, along with low voter turnout), Texas would have been a battleground state for a while now.

by eddie Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:22 pm

I alway thought Texas was quite RW before.

by Original Quill Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:42 pm

eddie wrote:I alway thought Texas was quite RW before.

It's poised and just about to go blue (blue state = Democratic; red state = Republican). The stats that Ben puts forward are even more than I thought.

Yes, Texas, Florida and Arizona are the ones on the cliff, about to fall. But, wth, Hillary has already got the electors necessary.

by eddie Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:46 pm

Original Quill wrote:
eddie wrote:I alway thought Texas was quite RW before.

It's poised and just about to go blue (blue state = Democratic; red state = Republican). The stats that Ben puts forward are even more than I thought.

Yes, Texas, Florida and Arizona are the ones on the cliff, about to fall. But, wth, Hillary has already got the electors necessary.

Yeah we have it the other way here, as you know, blue Tory, red Labour (never liked the yellow for libdems - always seemed a wishy-washy colour).

Well you guys know I don't like Hilary but if she keeps Trump out...needs must.

by Ben Reilly Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:16 pm

eddie wrote:I alway thought Texas was quite RW before.

A lot of people do. Actually, Oklahoma, Utah and Alaska, along with a lot of the Deep South, are significantly more RW than Texas.

In the 2008 election, Obama won 43.6 percent of the vote in Texas and won every major urban area. Now we only have a 17 percent rural population, and the flight from the country tends to perpetuate itself (fewer people around, fewer people to give you a job, take care of you when you're sick, sell you food, etc., so you go where that stuff is).

by eddie Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:23 pm

Ben Reilly wrote:
eddie wrote:I alway thought Texas was quite RW before.

A lot of people do. Actually, Oklahoma, Utah and Alaska, along with a lot of the Deep South, are significantly more RW than Texas.

In the 2008 election, Obama won 43.6 percent of the vote in Texas and won every major urban area. Now we only have a 17 percent rural population, and the flight from the country tends to perpetuate itself (fewer people around, fewer people to give you a job, take care of you when you're sick, sell you food, etc., so you go where that stuff is).

I guess I thought it because of the death penalty you guys seem to love.