Coronavirus updates (gelico's original thread)

by gelico Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:15 pm

First topic message reminder :

seems to be spreading rapidly

tests show it started in a animal market

by Eilzel Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:16 am

Tommy Monk wrote:
Eilzel wrote:
'Wolfie wrote:

Tommy isn't simply a self-opinionated fuckwit...
And a self-declared "genius"..

He still remains one of the stupidest dolts on here.
Calling his detractors "idiots", when it's he himself who posts up the unintelligable dross to start with..

Here we see the ignorant fool attempting to redefine the term "mortality rate" to excuse his own scaremongering conspiracy-bullshit agendas...

Didn't you hear? Tommy is smarter than 90% of the world's scientists. No one knows more about science than tommy. He says so himself.

I am smarter than you...

You aren't smarter than a paper bag. Your arrogance is infinite though.

by 'Wolfie Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:32 am

Tommy certainly is aiming way too high, to claim that he is in any way "smarter" than any of us...

He should be aiming at the much "lower hanging fruit" on NF (the likes of smelly', Deano and HT, for examples..), if he wants to continue pushing his laughable "genius" claims..

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:21 am

Original Quill wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:The mortality rate can only be accurately determined by looking at the number of cases of those who have recovered from the virus and those who have been killed by the virus...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed Cases

Cases which had an outcome: 7331

5,963 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,368 (19%)
Deaths

You can't calculate the mortality rate by including huge numbers of new cases into the equation... Where it is yet to be established how many of these cases will result in death or recovery... And whereby this won't be known until the virus has run it's course in each of those suffering from it...

This is pretty simple and straightforward common sense thinking for anyone with half a brain...

If you fail to understand this... Then you really must be an idiot...!!!

Tommy, fgs figure it out. Mortality = total contracted — survivors. Those who recovered are the survivors. And deal in whole numbers, fgs, don't deal in statistics...you can't summarize a summary statistic.

A case fatality rate (CFR, also case fatality risk, or case fatality ratio) is the ratio of deaths from a certain disease to the total number of people diagnosed with this disease for a certain period of time. A CFR is conventionally expressed as a percentage and represents a measure of disease severity.[1] CFRs are most often used for diseases with discrete, limited time courses, such as outbreaks of acute infections. CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The CFR number during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

So... given that this is a new virus in humans... and that there are so many new cases happening, so quickly... what I said in my previous post applies...

Looking at the actual RESOLVED CASES is a clearer indication of what the final case fatality rate (mortality rate) is...

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:48 am

Eilzel wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:

I am smarter than you...

You aren't smarter than a paper bag. Your arrogance is infinite though.

I'm still smarter than you...

by Eilzel Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:30 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Eilzel wrote:
Tommy Monk wrote:

I am smarter than you...

You aren't smarter than a paper bag. Your arrogance is infinite though.

I'm still smarter than you...

Sure y'are Smile

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:38 pm

How about commenting on the topic, rather than on me...?

Or is it all a bit above your intellect...?

by Eilzel Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:49 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:How about commenting on the topic, rather than on me...?

Or is it all a bit above your intellect...?

I tend not to debate you since your 'method' is to just come to your own conclusion and repeat it mindlessly regardless of what others say (as seen above with wolfie and Quill).

Every person in the field I've heard from in the news has said the virus has a very low rate of mortality. 2-4%. And most deaths are of older people and those with conditions.

Your ridiculous mortality rate of 20% is too baseless to bother to discuss when all you'll do, as seen in your exchanges above, is repeat it regardless of all other accounts. As if YOU, smart arse tommy, has discovered something beyond all experts in the field.

It is exactly the same BS you throw up on climate change. Not worth my time tbh. Even this is giving too much.

But carry on thinking you're an underrated genius Laughing

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:02 pm

But don't you see that the inclusion of so many new cases into the equation is heavily distorting the results figure?

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:06 pm

And what I said isn't "baseless" at all...!

It is BASED on the number of closed cases...!!!

by 'Wolfie Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:54 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:And what I said isn't "baseless" at all...!

It is BASED on the number of closed cases...!!!

Coronavirus updates (gelico's original thread) - Page 3 3489511464

Put a sock in it, you dopey prick...

All you continue to do here is to prove that you know 'less-than-zero' about Statistical Analysis..

As your idiotic rants continue to ignore the 14 day incubation period for the virus, and doesn't allow for the lag in confirmation of suspected cases.

Your puerile attempts to compare mortalities as a % of "recovered" cases (to date..) is simply irrelevant -- you need to wait until this outbreak has run its course, before looking at the mortality rate compared to the final survival rate..

Unfortunately for you, such rational thought processes are obviously too much of a stretch for your grandiose claims to your self-declared "genius" status...

by nicko Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:57 pm

Can't you reply without insults, you dozy prick ?

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:14 pm

I'm looking at the numbers of cases that HAVE run their course so far, you ignorant fool!!!

So incubation period and delay in confirming new cases is totally irrelevant!!!

Once you have contracted this virus... The end result will be either recovery or death!!!

So far, out of the cases that have run their course... About 82% have recovered and about 18% have died...!

If you don't understand why this is likely to be a more accurate way of measuring the CFR than by trying to calculate it by including the hugely expanding number of new cases that will take some time to conclude and fully impact the final CFR, then it is you who is being the idiot!!!

by Original Quill Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:46 pm

Tommy, the formula is 'total contracted Covid-19' minus 'survivors' = mortality. Or, just count the dead, ffs.

If you need a percentage calculation, do it after the whole math computation. You can't summarize a summary statistic.

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:06 pm

We can calculate the death rate so far compared to number of survivors...

And that is, of the cases that have run their full course so far... about 82% are survivors and 18% dead.

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:12 pm

Updated at 18:00 today...

Closed Cases

7,665 - Cases which have had an outcome

6,295 (82%) - Recovered / Discharged

1,370 (18%) - Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

by Original Quill Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:14 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:

We can calculate the death rate so far compared to number of survivors...

Now you've got it. "The formula is 'total contracted Covid-19' minus 'survivors' = mortality."

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:16 pm

No... You're not getting what I'm saying...

by Original Quill Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:43 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:No... You're not getting what I'm saying...

Ahah...well, if you are saying anything other that "the formula is 'total contracted Covid-19' minus 'survivors' = mortality," you are completely wrong.

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:03 pm

A case fatality rate (CFR, also case fatality risk, or case fatality ratio) is the ratio of deaths from a certain disease to the total number of people diagnosed with this disease for a certain period of time. A CFR is conventionally expressed as a percentage and represents a measure of disease severity.[1] CFRs are most often used for diseases with discrete, limited time courses, such as outbreaks of acute infections. CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The CFR number during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

So... given that this is a new virus in humans... and that there are so many new cases happening, so quickly... what I said in my previous post applies...

Looking at the actual RESOLVED CASES is a clearer indication of what the final case fatality rate (mortality rate) is likely to be...

by Original Quill Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:10 pm

Wiki wrote:...the ratio of deaths from a certain disease to the total number of people diagnosed with this disease for a certain period of time.

Simply put: "the formula is 'total contracted Covid-19' minus 'survivors' = mortality." I suspect the problem is, tom, that you don't understand what you are posting.

by Tommy Monk Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:48 pm

I notice that you have not specified the time frame in the calculation...!?

And I'm talking about the final CFR... or at least an indication of what the final CFR might be...

And this will be determined by those cases that have reached their conclusion... ie where the virus has run it's full course in sufferers... and comparing the figures for the only 2 possible outcomes for sufferers... one being recovery and the other being death...!

The virus is too new and in too much of its early stages and there are too many increasing numbers of new infections happening and too early on to know what likely full term outcome will be for them all...

The best indicator of likely recovery/death rates for current and any new sufferers is to just focus on the numbers we have for cases that have reached their full course and what the final outcomes are...

by Original Quill Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:29 pm

We are asking about now. There is no time frame when it is on-going. These are 'working' numbers...we're not writing a history book.

by gelico Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:01 am

There are currently 64,452 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,384 fatalities.

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:52 am

Original Quill wrote:We are asking about now. There is no time frame when it is on-going. These are 'working' numbers...we're not writing a history book.

But you posted a wiki definition that clearly stated that a given time frame be included in the calculation...!?

It is clear that you are the one who doesn't know what you are talking about...!

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:56 am

Tommy Monk wrote:
A case fatality rate (CFR, also case fatality risk, or case fatality ratio) is the ratio of deaths from a certain disease to the total number of people diagnosed with this disease for a certain period of time. A CFR is conventionally expressed as a percentage and represents a measure of disease severity.[1] CFRs are most often used for diseases with discrete, limited time courses, such as outbreaks of acute infections. CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The CFR number during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

So... given that this is a new virus in humans... and that there are so many new cases happening, so quickly... what I said in my previous post applies...

Looking at the actual RESOLVED CASES is a clearer indication of what the final case fatality rate (mortality rate) is likely to be...

Try reading/understanding what I'm actually saying...

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:26 am

gelico wrote:

There are currently 65,213 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,486 fatalities.

There are currently 56,766 active cases...

Because...

8,481
Cases have had an outcome

6,992 (82%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,489 (18%)
Deaths

by Original Quill Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:28 am

That's the point: I don't think you know what you're saying. You are putting up the words of a lot of others, and you don't fully comprehend what they are saying.

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:41 am

So... What's the time frame that you mentioned in your wiki cut and paste...!?

You don't know because you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about!!!

Which is why you have no idea what I've been talking about too!!!

You should stick to pretending to know about law... rather than pretending to know about medical/scientific/mathematical issues...

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:48 am

Closed Cases

8,558
Cases which had an outcome

7,067 (83%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,491 (17%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

by Original Quill Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:14 am

G'nite tommy. Sleep

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:37 pm

Closed Cases
8,550
Cases which had an outcome:
7,166 (84%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,384 (16%)
Deaths

I'm starting to wonder about the figures that are being provided by this site...

Because the above is what they are saying now...

While the following is what they were saying 12 hours ago...

Post by Tommy Monk Today at 1:48 am

Closed Cases

8,558
Cases which had an outcome

7,067 (83%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,491 (17%)
Deaths

Maybe some of the dead have come back to life...!!!???

by Vintage Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:54 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:
Closed Cases
8,550
Cases which had an outcome:
7,166 (84%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,384 (16%)
Deaths

I'm starting to wonder about the figures that are being provided by this site...

Because the above is what they are saying now...

While the following is what they were saying 12 hours ago...

Post by Tommy Monk Today at 1:48 am

Closed Cases

8,558
Cases which had an outcome

7,067 (83%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,491 (17%)
Deaths

Maybe some of the dead have come back to life...!!!???

Could that be the problem perhaps considering the lock downs, locking people in etc??????????????

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:55 pm

In fact... In earlier posts they have shown higher numbers of dead too...

Gelico made a post from somewhere saying 1486 dead...

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:56 pm

I get a feeling the figures are being fudged...

by Vintage Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:28 pm

Its all a bit off to me, such measures being taken for only a relatively small mortality rate, of course it could be that so many getting ill at more or less the same time would have a hugely detrimental effect on
everything medical services, police and security, food distribution, transport and work in general.

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:31 pm

I think it's a lot worse than were being told...

The huge reaction we are seeing for a virus that were being told is nothing to worry about and very mild like flu in vast majority of people...!?

I'm not buying it...

And it also now looks like the web site I've been quoting, has started fudging the figures too...

by gelico Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:02 pm

Tommy Monk wrote:In fact... In earlier posts they have shown higher numbers of dead too...

Gelico made a post from somewhere saying 1486 dead...

that's what it showed on the website, tommy but then a little while later it changed and the numbers had gone down.

no idea how that works

i'm with you, so much we are not being told

by Tommy Monk Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:00 pm

Just seen this on the site I've been referencing...

The National Health Commission of China, in its February 14 official report, deducted 108 previously reported deaths and 1,043 previously reported cases from the total in Hubei Province due to "repeated statistics." We have updated the daily (Feb. 12 and Feb. 13) and cumulative totals

by gelico Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:18 pm

There are currently 66,887 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,523 fatalities.

so it says

by Left T Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:26 pm

gelico wrote:

There are currently 66,887 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,523 fatalities.

so it says

Running commentary from the harridan stench!

Let's hope that it gets you soon then...eh! fag ash lil! cheers

by gelico Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:45 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ot1ejwUeFpI

chinese woman, very upset,,,,

by gelico Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:09 pm

There are currently 69,289 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,670 fatalities.

by Tommy Monk Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:21 pm

Closed Cases
11,554
Cases which had an outcome:
9,883 (86%)
Recovered / Discharged

1,671 (14%)
Deaths

However...

Active Cases
57,735
Currently Infected Patients
46,436 (80%)
in Mild Condition

11,299 (20%)
Serious or Critical

20% of current cases are serious/critical...

by 'Wolfie Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:53 pm

Vintage wrote:
Its all a bit off to me, such measures being taken for only a relatively small mortality rate, of course it could be that so many getting ill at more or less the same time would have a hugely detrimental effect on
everything medical services, police and security, food distribution, transport and work in general.

There are more factors at play, than merely the current "mortality rate"...

To wit :
How infectious the disease is;
How fast it spreads;
The possible modes of infection;
The abiilty of countries and agencies to cope, etc..

by gelico Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:48 am

There are currently 71,440 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,775 fatalities.

by gelico Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:59 pm

There are currently 73,255 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,868 fatalities.

by gelico Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:23 pm

There are currently 75,129 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,007 fatalities.

by Tommy Monk Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:54 pm

Active Cases
58,689
Currently Infected Patients
46,632 (79%)
in Mild Condition

12,057 (21%)
Serious or Critical

Closed Cases
16,449
Cases which had an outcome:
14,442 (88%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,007 (12%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

by gelico Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:25 am

Tommy Monk wrote:

Active Cases
58,689
Currently Infected Patients
46,632 (79%)
in Mild Condition

12,057 (21%)
Serious or Critical

Closed Cases
16,449
Cases which had an outcome:
14,442 (88%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,007 (12%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

i saw a video on twitter of a professor of infectious diseases who has worked on ebola, SARs and all and after some back and forth was allowed on to the Princess Diamond cruise ship. He said there was no infection control whatsoever and the virus was everywhere and anywhere as there was no way of knowing. the amount of infected on that ship has gone up yet again, although not sure how many have it now

also the incubation period of that virus can now be six weeks.

some dude was tested positive 42 days after clearance of the virus

Suspect

by Tommy Monk Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:01 pm

Could be a longer incubation period Gelico... Or he simply may have caught it from someone else somewhere else, long after he was tested clear before...

Latest figures...

Active Cases
58,169
Currently Infected Patients
46,113 (79%)
in Mild Condition

12,056 (21%)
Serious or Critical

Closed Cases
17,140
Cases which had an outcome:
15,126 (88%)
Recovered / Discharged

2,014 (12%)
Deaths

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